农林牧渔 行业定期报告 证券研究报告 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 15 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 证券分析师 投资要点： 生猪：二育入场增加，猪价短期维持震荡。 联系人 二育入场增加，猪价短期维持震荡。本周涌益数据最新猪价为 14.80 元/kg，出栏均 重为 128.81kg，15Kg 仔猪维持 659 元/头，175kg 标肥价差为 0.64 元/kg。近期猪 价表现强于市场预期，二育群体入场意愿增加，短期猪价或维持震荡；中长期看全 年总体供给偏多，猪价弱势较为确定。产能方面，2 月农业部全国能繁母猪存栏量 4066 万头，即将超出 105%的产能调控绿色合理区间。第三方机构涌益 3 月数据显 示能繁存栏环比+0.10%。农业农村部对产能增加较多的企业开展窗口指导，行业产 能或维持震荡，叠加当前饲料原 ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the construction of a community of shared destiny in the context of evolving global geopolitical dynamics, highlighting China's commitment to high-quality co-construction of the "Belt and Road" initiative with neighboring countries [5][10] - As of now, China has reached consensus on building a community of shared destiny with 17 neighboring countries and signed cooperation agreements with 25 countries, becoming the largest trading partner for 18 neighboring countries [10][11] Market Review - The report notes that the construction and decoration sector has seen a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 5.13%, and the ChiNext Index down 6.73% during the week [39] - The report highlights that 23 stocks in the construction sector rose, with the top five performers being: Chuangxing Resources (+19.34%), *ST Nongshang (+15.74%), Zhongshe Consulting (+15.58%), Guangzi International (+14.75%), and COFCO Technology (+12.37%) [39] Regional Cooperation Insights China-Central Asia - Central Asia is identified as the birthplace of the "Belt and Road" initiative, with trade between China and Central Asian countries projected to reach $94.8 billion in 2024, reflecting a robust growth of 6.1% year-on-year [15][20] - The report highlights significant infrastructure projects, including the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which is expected to enhance connectivity and reduce transportation time significantly [19][20] China-Southeast Asia - The report indicates that trade between China and ASEAN countries is expected to reach $982.3 billion in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.75% [30] - The successful operation of the China-Laos railway is noted as a key achievement, facilitating economic corridors and enhancing regional connectivity [26][30] Industry Developments - The report discusses the increasing demand for digital and green construction in Southeast Asia, presenting opportunities for Chinese companies in areas such as data centers and green building projects [32] - It also mentions that the issuance of green bonds in ASEAN countries is on the rise, indicating a shift towards sustainable infrastructure development [32] Company Dynamics - The report highlights significant contract wins by major construction firms, including China Railway, which secured contracts totaling approximately 66.77 billion yuan, representing 5.77% of its projected revenue for 2024 [42] - China Metallurgical Group announced new contracts worth 14.35 billion yuan, showcasing its strong position in the metallurgical engineering sector [42]

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 15 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年04月14日 华源晨会精粹 固定收益 3 月金融数据亮眼——2025 年 3 月金融数据点评：3 月新增贷款 3.64 万 亿，同比明显多增。3 月 M1 增速（1.6%）回升，经济活性有所提升。3 月社融增量 5.89 万亿，同比大幅多增 1.05 万亿，多增主要来自信贷及政府债券净融资，社融增 速（8.4%）回升。3 月 20 日-4 月 11 日债市主要交易高关税对中国经济的冲击。但 事情正在起变化，我们认为，未来几个月中美达成贸易协议降低关税的概率不低。3 月金融数据较好，反映经济稳中向好。未来债市可能要逐步交易中美缓和，非银可 能将降久期，我们预计近期 10Y 国债收益率将重回 1.7%上方，甚至逐步走向 1.8%。 倘若未来中美达成协议将关税降至年初水平，年内 10Y 国债收益率高点仍有望到 1.9%。我们认为，2025 年经济仍可能企稳，维持此前的预判，2025 年 10Y/30Y 国 债收益率高点看 1.9%/2.2%。 风险提示：政府债券增发规模大幅超预期 ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The commercialization process of nuclear fusion is accelerating, and attention should be paid to beneficiaries in the industrial chain [4] - Nuclear fusion is seen as a solution to global energy challenges, with advantages such as abundant and environmentally friendly raw materials, high energy density, and enhanced safety compared to nuclear fission [5] - The global investment in the controllable nuclear fusion industry reached $7.1 billion by April 2024, with a significant increase of $900 million compared to the same period in 2023 [5] - The competition between China and the US in nuclear fusion is expected to intensify, leading to increased capital expenditure in the industry [5] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Industry Performance**: Nuclear fusion is positioned as a critical area in the next energy revolution, with significant advancements in technology and investment [5] - **Investment Analysis**: The acceleration of nuclear fusion commercialization and the potential for increased domestic capital expenditure suggest that the industrial chain will benefit. Recommended companies include Guoguang Electric, Hezhong Intelligent, Antai Technology, China Nuclear Engineering, and companies related to superconducting magnets [5]

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 非金融|公司点评报告 投资要点： hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 14 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 年 | 月 11 | 日 | | 04 | | | | 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | | | 16.83 | | | 一 年 / 低 | 最 | 内 | | | | | | 高 | 最 | 20.47/14.78 | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | | 82,039.63 | | | 流 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's profitability is steadily improving, with rapid growth in testing and home products [5] - The company focuses on in vitro diagnostics, treatment, and rehabilitation, with significant revenue growth in testing reagents [6] - The company has a competitive advantage in the IVD sector and is experiencing rapid growth in its treatment and rehabilitation business [6] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 345 million yuan, up 5.12% year-on-year [6] - The company expects revenues of 1.322 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.14% [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 67.21%, an increase of 4.21 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 29.87%, up 1.29 percentage points year-on-year [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 13.22 billion yuan, 15.20 billion yuan, and 17.44 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 15.14%, 14.99%, and 14.74% [5] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 396 million yuan, 455 million yuan, and 525 million yuan, with growth rates of 14.57%, 15.05%, and 15.30% [5] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 15x, 13x, and 11x respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) due to strong performance growth and continuous release of high-end product capacity [5]. Core Views - The company, 聚灿光电, reported a revenue of 731 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 61 million yuan, up 27.72% year-on-year [7]. - The company is transitioning to a full-spectrum LED chip supplier, with a focus on high-brightness, low-power, and long-lifespan red and yellow LED chips, which are expected to enhance its product offerings in high-end applications [7]. - The company is optimizing its product structure to target high-margin segments, particularly in Mini/Micro LED technology, which is anticipated to support premium pricing in the backlight and display chip markets [7]. - The company has maintained a stable operating expense ratio, with significant improvements in cash flow, achieving a net cash flow from operating activities of 176 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 666.02% [7]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2,760 million yuan in 2024, 3,342 million yuan in 2025, and 3,749 million yuan in 2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 11.23%, 21.10%, and 12.20% respectively [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 305 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 56.04% [6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the upcoming years are projected to be 24.37 for 2025, 21.39 for 2026, and 18.55 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic circulation as a more controllable option for China, suggesting that the focus should be on domestic demand and infrastructure investment as a response to the uncertainties brought by the "reciprocal tariffs" initiated by the U.S. [5][6] - The high-purity quartz sector is highlighted as a leading area, with domestic companies expected to benefit from the potential increase in import costs due to tariffs, making long-term domestic substitution promising [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index decreased by 2.4% while the overall market indices saw declines of 3.1% to 6.7% [9] - Notable stock performances included a 29.0% increase for Zhongqi New Materials and a 19.9% decrease for Jingxue Energy Saving [9] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement is 396.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8 yuan/ton week-on-week, but an increase of 39.2 yuan/ton year-on-year [15] - The national cement inventory ratio is 60.2%, up 3.3 percentage points week-on-week [15] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1413.0 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 6.3 yuan/ton week-on-week [33] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 14.3 yuan/square meter, remaining stable week-on-week [38] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price for non-alkali glass fiber yarn is 4745.0 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [45] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price for large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week [49] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing tariff disputes initiated by the U.S. and their implications for the construction materials sector, highlighting the potential for increased domestic production and substitution [14] - The discovery of high-purity quartz mines in China is noted as a significant development that could reduce reliance on imports [14]

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 14 日 3 月金融数据亮眼 ——2025 年 3 月金融数据点评 投资要点： 事件：4 月 13 日下午央行披露了 2025 年 3 月金融数据：新增贷款 3.64 万亿元，社融 5.89 万亿元。3 月末，M2 达 326.06 万亿，YoY+7.0%；M1 YoY +1.6%；社融增速 8.4%。 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 3 月新增贷款 3.64 万亿，同比明显多增。3 月下旬，1M 转贴现明显走高，反映当月 信贷投放情况较好。一般而言，一季度的 1 及 3 月是信贷投放大月，2 月是信贷小 月。3 月新增贷款同比多增，一方面是信贷需求小幅改善，另外一方面，也有银行 3 月冲刺信贷的影响。存量按揭利率低及股市平稳缓解提前还贷压力，一二线城市二 手房成交活跃，按揭贷款需求阶段性好转。3 月个贷+9853 亿，其中，个贷短贷+4841 亿，个人中长期贷款+5047 亿，均较好。3 月对公短 ...

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 14 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com "提振消费"是 2025 年国家重要任务，关注北交所特色消费产业链标的 ——北交所消费服务产业跟踪第十一期（20250413） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 2025 年我国针对"提振消费，优化消费环境"密集出台一系列政策。2025 年 4 月 7 日，商务部、国家 卫生健康委等 12 部门印发《促进健康消费专项行动方案》，旨在培育和发展健康消费领域新质生产力， 提升健康商品和服务供给质量，更好满足人民美好生活需要。2025 年 3 月 16 日，中共中央办公厅、国 务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，旨在大力提振消费，全方位扩大国内需求，以增收减负提 升消费能力，以高质量供给创造有效需求，以优化消费环境增强消费意愿，针对性解决制约消费的突出 矛盾问题。2025 ...