证券研究报告 医药生物 | 医药商业 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 09 日 证券分析师 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 联系人 梁裕 liangyu@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | | 2025 | 年 | 08 日 | | 月 | 04 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | 29.60 | | | | | 一 年 / 最 | 最 | 高 | 内 | | | | 低 | 38.00/27.12 | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | 22,333.29 | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | 16,379.05 | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | 754.50 | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve high growth driven by commercialization and milestone achievements, with smooth progress in overseas markets [5] - The company reported a narrowing net loss of 267 million RMB in 2024, a 53.5% year-on-year reduction, with total revenue of 1.933 billion RMB, reflecting a 25.5% increase [7] - The company is entering a commercialization phase with promising data and backing from Merck, indicating potential for increased global value [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.963 billion RMB, 3.007 billion RMB, and 5.363 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 1.55%, 53.18%, and 78.35% [6][8] - The company is expected to achieve a positive net profit of 877 million RMB by 2027, with a significant increase in earnings per share from -2.40 RMB in 2025 to 3.86 RMB in 2027 [6][8] - The company's reasonable equity value is estimated at 81 billion HKD, based on a DCF method with a perpetual growth rate of 2% and WACC of 8.58% [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) due to important data catalyst nodes approaching and accelerated progress in the "new pipeline" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to experience significant revenue growth driven by the inclusion of its products in the medical insurance directory and the expansion of indications for its drugs [7] - The company has a strong innovation pipeline and increasing commercial clarity in overseas clinical trials, supporting the maintained "Buy" rating [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 34.19 billion, 55.98 billion, and 85.77 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 60.98%, 63.71%, and 53.23% [6][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 24 million, 587 million, and 1.343 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with corresponding growth rates of 104.71%, 2323.13%, and 128.90% [6][8] - The company's reasonable equity value is calculated at 100.3 billion HKD based on a DCF method with a perpetual growth rate of 3% and WACC of 8.67% [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 74.38 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 640 million yuan, down 59.8% year-on-year. The fourth quarter alone saw a revenue of 17.91 billion yuan, a decline of 5.2%, and a net loss of 420 million yuan, a drop of 203.3% year-on-year [4] - The distribution segment achieved a revenue of 52.98 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 2.0% year-on-year, while the retail segment reported a revenue of 22.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.4% year-on-year, resulting in a net loss of 1.1 billion yuan [8] - The company is expected to recover its profitability, with projected net profits of 1.33 billion yuan, 1.50 billion yuan, and 1.67 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating growth rates of 107.1%, 12.5%, and 11.7% [8] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company had a total market capitalization of approximately 13.7 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 13.53 billion yuan [2] - The company's total assets were reported at 47.56 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 56.36% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 1.15 yuan, with a projected EPS of 2.39 yuan for 2025 [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company, Zhaoyi Innovation, is a leading semiconductor design firm in China, focusing on memory devices, microcontrollers (MCUs), and sensor solutions. Its core product lines include flash memory (Nor, SLC NAND), DRAM, microcontroller chips, and smart human-machine interaction sensor chips. The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery of the semiconductor cycle and the launch of new products, driving high growth in performance [4][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Zhaoyi Innovation has established itself as a leader in the semiconductor design industry in China, with a comprehensive product matrix that includes memory chips, MCUs, and sensor chips. The company aims to become a leading manufacturer of NOR Flash products and continues to expand its market share [14][17]. 2. Market Performance - The company has seen significant revenue growth from 2018 to 2022, with revenue increasing from 2.246 billion to 8.13 billion yuan, representing a CAGR of 38%. However, in 2023, revenue was revised down to 5.761 billion yuan, a decrease of 29% year-on-year. The company anticipates a recovery in 2024, with projected revenue of 7.349 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 27.57% [4][6][37]. 3. Product Expansion - The company has successfully launched a variety of products across its memory and MCU lines. In the DRAM sector, it has expanded its product offerings to include DDR3L, DDR4, and LPDDR4x, with plans to develop LPDDR5. The NAND Flash products have also achieved full-scale production in 38nm and 24nm processes, covering capacities from 1Gb to 8Gb [4][20][21]. 4. Financial Projections - The company forecasts significant growth in net profit from 2024 to 2026, with expected net profits of 10.90 billion, 16.87 billion, and 23.48 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding year-on-year growth rates are projected to be 576.58%, 54.73%, and 39.16%. The current price-to-earnings ratios are estimated at 63.47, 41.02, and 29.48 for the respective years [5][7][40]. 5. Competitive Position - Zhaoyi Innovation is recognized as the leading supplier of 32-bit MCUs in China, with a comprehensive product range that includes over 600 MCU products. The company has established a strong market presence and is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand in the MCU sector [4][21][22]. 6. Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery driven by AI demand and inventory cycles. The global semiconductor sales are projected to grow significantly, with Zhaoyi Innovation expected to benefit from this trend as its traditional businesses, including NOR, NAND, and MCU, continue to recover [34][50].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [5][8]. Core Views - The company has a stable cash dividend policy, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of around 30% from 2013 to 2023, with cash dividends increasing from 409 million to 1,038 million RMB, reflecting a CAGR of 9.76% [6]. - The company has shown robust growth, with operating revenue increasing from 23.501 billion to 74.193 billion RMB from 2013 to 2023, achieving a CAGR of 12.18% [7]. - The company is focusing on digital transformation and expanding its overseas business, which is expected to create new growth points [6][7]. Financial Performance - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 18.83 billion RMB, with a closing price of 5.99 RMB per share [3]. - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 3.07 billion RMB in 2024, with a corresponding PE ratio of 6.1 [6][9]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 76.573 billion RMB in 2024 to 86.791 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 6.75% [9][10]. Business Segments - The company operates primarily in infrastructure construction, with its core business segments including construction, design, investment, and operation [7]. - The construction business accounted for 87.13% of total revenue in the first half of 2024, with new contracts signed amounting to 909.35 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.93% [7]. - The company is actively pursuing data commercialization in the transportation infrastructure sector, with new data orders signed amounting to 1.03 billion RMB in 2024 [7]. Market Position - The company has a strong market presence in the Yangtze River Delta region, with 82.72% of its revenue coming from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai in the first half of 2024 [7]. - The company is accelerating its international expansion, with overseas revenue reaching 2.126 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 50.73% [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment in the stock [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - Shandong Expressway is a leading player in the toll road and bridge sector, focusing on the investment and operation of transportation infrastructure, with a robust expansion strategy in the upstream and downstream value chain [5][9]. - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, maintaining an average dividend payout ratio of 65.37% from 2019 to 2023, with a commitment to not distribute less than 60% of net profit as dividends from 2020 to 2024 [5][26]. - The company is expected to see stable growth in revenue and profit, with projected net profits of 3,216 million, 3,378 million, and 3,561 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a gradual recovery in traffic demand and operational efficiency [6][51]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shandong Expressway, established in 1999 and listed in 2002, has expanded its operational toll road mileage from 1,452 kilometers in 2010 to 2,864 kilometers by 2024, achieving a CAGR of 5.36% [13][18]. - The company is controlled by the state-owned Shandong Expressway Group, which holds 70.31% of the shares, providing a strong backing for its operations [13][14]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue CAGR of 17.09% and a net profit CAGR of 2.72% from 2014 to 2023, with total assets growing at a CAGR of 14.71% [18]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 19,901 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.94%, while net profit decreased by 5.70% to 2,516 million RMB due to adverse weather conditions and traffic diversions [18][20]. Business Segments - The toll road business is the core revenue driver, contributing 37.29% of total revenue in the first half of 2024, with a gross profit margin of 53.78% [15][21]. - The company has diversified its operations into various sectors, including construction services, electrical engineering, and railway transportation, with the latter contributing 9.50% to total revenue in the first half of 2024 [15][39]. Investment Strategy - The company employs an "investment + management" model to expand its national highway network, managing a total of 2,864 kilometers of toll road assets across multiple provinces [28][32]. - Shandong Expressway has made strategic investments in sectors such as finance, environmental protection, and smart transportation, enhancing its growth potential [34][35]. Profitability Forecast - The company anticipates stable revenue growth driven by a recovery in traffic demand and ongoing expansion of its toll road assets, with expected net profits showing modest growth from 2025 to 2027 [47][51].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the gypsum board industry, backed by China National Building Material Group, and is transitioning into a comprehensive building materials manufacturer and service provider [5] - The company has established a strong competitive moat in the gypsum board sector, achieving a market share of approximately 56% by 2024, which provides a stable cash flow even during industry downturns [5] - The company's strategic acquisitions in the waterproofing and coating sectors have significantly contributed to its revenue growth, enhancing its credibility as a leader in consumer building materials [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 22,426 million RMB - 2024: 25,821 million RMB (growth of 15.14%) - 2025E: 27,344 million RMB (growth of 5.90%) - 2026E: 28,961 million RMB (growth of 5.91%) - 2027E: 31,137 million RMB (growth of 7.51%) [4] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 3,524 million RMB - 2024: 3,647 million RMB (growth of 3.49%) - 2025E: 4,025 million RMB (growth of 10.36%) - 2026E: 4,362 million RMB (growth of 8.39%) - 2027E: 4,805 million RMB (growth of 10.14%) [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023: 2.09 RMB - 2024: 2.16 RMB - 2025E: 2.38 RMB - 2026E: 2.58 RMB - 2027E: 2.84 RMB [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully implemented a dual-wing strategy through significant acquisitions in the waterproofing and coating sectors, enhancing its market position and revenue streams [5] - The waterproofing segment is expected to generate revenue of 3.322 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.23% [5] - The coating business has expanded to a production capacity exceeding 1 million tons, with strategic acquisitions enhancing its competitive advantage [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction and decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing a structural differentiation in performance, with 16 companies reporting revenue growth and 12 companies reporting net profit growth in 2024, indicating a challenging environment due to the slowdown in infrastructure project implementation [7][10] - The domestic infrastructure sector is expected to gain momentum in 2025, driven by policy support and project launches, with significant projects like the Grand Canal in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, and the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle being highlighted [16] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is becoming increasingly important as external challenges rise, with trade with Belt and Road countries growing by 5.16% in 2024, indicating strong demand and cooperation potential [19][22] Summary by Sections Market Review - The construction and decoration index fell by 0.27% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.28% [43] - Among the sub-sectors, steel structure, engineering consulting services, and municipal engineering showed positive growth, with increases of 3.32%, 0.67%, and 0.16% respectively [43] Company Performance - Major state-owned enterprises like China Railway, China Communications, and China Energy are expected to see stable order reserves and positive growth in new contract amounts for 2025, with targets of 20,147 million, 30,600 million, and 15,000 million respectively [14] - The international engineering and chemical engineering sectors are performing well, with companies like Donghua Technology and Northern International showing significant revenue and profit growth [10][11] External Challenges - The trade tensions with the U.S. have led to increased tariffs, significantly impacting China's exports, with the average tariff on Chinese goods reaching 21% during the Trump administration [19][22] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is seen as a strategic response to these challenges, with trade with Belt and Road countries accounting for 34.76% of China's total foreign trade in 2024, reflecting its growing importance [22][30] Infrastructure Investment - The report highlights the potential for infrastructure investment to rebound in 2025, with a focus on projects that have strong regional resource advantages and project execution capabilities [16] - Key enterprises to watch include major state-owned companies like China Construction, China Railway, and local state-owned enterprises such as Sichuan Road and Bridge and Anhui Construction [16]

证券研究报告 环保 | 环境治理 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 08 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 联系人 市场表现： | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | | | 15.25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 高 | | | | | | | 17.17/12.00 | 最 | | | 内 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | 13,725.00 | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | 3,660.00 | | | | | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | ...