Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the price index remained under pressure, with CPI and PPI year-on-year in negative territory for two consecutive months. The CPI was mainly dragged down by food and energy prices, while the core CPI continued to grow steadily. The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed for two consecutive months, and the month-on-month remained flat [1]. - In the fourth quarter, the economic downward pressure may increase, and the possibility of using policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future rises. Attention should be paid to the continuity of incremental policies and signals of price level improvement [1]. - The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in October [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI was -0.3% year-on-year, up 0.1 pct from the previous month, and +0.1% month-on-month, up 0.1 pct from the previous month. The core CPI year-on-year increase expanded to 1.0% for five consecutive months, possibly affected by consumption promotion policies and the rise in gold prices [1]. - Food prices have been negative year-on-year for eight consecutive months. In September 2025, food prices decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, dragging down the CPI year-on-year by about -0.77 pct. Non-food prices increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for four consecutive months [1]. - In Q4, food price declines may ease due to the low base last year, service prices may maintain steady growth, and the performance of household goods and services prices may continue to be excellent [1]. PPI Analysis - In September, the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.3%, up 0.6 pct from the previous month, and the month-on-month remained flat. The narrowing of the year-on-year decline was mainly due to the improvement in the prices of some domestic energy and raw material industries and the influence of international commodity price fluctuations [1]. - Policy-driven market environment improvement and industrial upgrading are the core supports for PPI stabilization, but the policy effect is weakening marginally. In Q4, the year-on-year decline of production material prices may continue to narrow, but it is difficult to turn positive year-on-year [1]. Economic Outlook - In the fourth quarter, the economy may face downward pressure. Consumption and exports may be under pressure, and the external environment is complex. The possibility of using policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future increases [1]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in October [1]. - It is predicted that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury bond to 1.9%, and the 5Y large bank secondary capital bond to 1.9% [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in October, with the bond market offensive preferably choosing 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y Treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, new loans increased month - on - month but significantly decreased year - on - year. Credit demand may continue to be weak, and there may be pressure for negative loan growth in October. M1 growth may have reached a peak, and M2 growth decreased slightly. Social financing growth continued to decline, and it is expected that the annual new loans (social financing caliber) will decrease year - on - year, while government bond net financing will expand significantly, with social financing growth likely to rise first and then fall, reaching about 8.0% at the end of the year [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs New Loans - In September 2025, new loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, with individual loans increasing by 389 billion yuan, corporate loans increasing by 1.22 trillion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans decreasing by 234.8 billion yuan. Credit demand may be affected by factors such as fiscal policy, local debt control, and industry over - capacity, and there may be negative growth pressure in October [2] M1 and M2 - In late September 2025, the new - caliber M1 growth rate was 7.2%, up 1.2 percentage points month - on - month, which may be related to the large - scale deposit - boosting by wealth management products and the active stock market. M1 growth may decline in the fourth quarter. The M2 growth rate was 8.4%, down slightly month - on - month [2] Social Financing - In September 2025, the social financing increment was 3.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease mainly due to loans and government bond net financing. The social financing growth rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 8.7% month - on - month. It is expected that the annual social financing will increase year - on - year, with the growth rate rising first and then falling, reaching about 8.0% at the end of the year [2] Bond Market Outlook - The report is bullish on the bond market in October, based on factors such as potential economic downward pressure, banks' increased bond allocation due to weak credit demand and lower liability costs, and the possibility of a policy interest rate cut in Q4. It is predicted that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will return to around 1.65%, the 30Y Treasury bond yield will reach 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bond yield will reach 1.9% [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve record high performance due to the optimization of blue and green light product structure and the release of red and yellow light production capacity [5] - The company has shown strong growth momentum in its main business, with a significant increase in production and sales of high-end products [6] - The company has successfully transformed into a full-color chip supplier, covering three core application areas: lighting, backlighting, and display [6] - The company emphasizes refined management, technological innovation, and cost control to enhance profitability [6] - The implementation of long-term incentive plans and share buybacks reflects the company's confidence in its sustainable development [6] Financial Summary - The company achieved operating revenue of 2,499 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.59% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 173 million yuan, up 8.43% year-on-year [6] - The company forecasts operating revenue of 3,342 million yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.12% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 314 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 60.31% [5] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 26.56 for 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-bank financial industry is "Positive" (first-time rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial sector has underperformed compared to the overall A-share market, with a year-to-date increase of 10.6% as of October 14, 2025, while the Wind All A Index has grown by 23.5%. However, the sector is expected to present investment opportunities driven by performance and changes in market preferences [4] - Strong third-quarter earnings expectations are anticipated to drive valuation growth, particularly in the insurance sector, where companies like New China Life Insurance are expected to see a net profit increase of 45%-65% year-on-year [5][6] - The report highlights a relative "mismatch" between performance and valuation, suggesting that the insurance companies' equity holdings have significantly increased, which will positively impact their investment income and net profit [5][6] Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - New China Life Insurance's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 is expected to grow by 45%-65% compared to the same period in 2024, exceeding market expectations [6] - Major insurance companies have seen substantial growth in their equity holdings, with China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific's equity and equity fund holdings increasing significantly from June 2024 to June 2025 [6][9] - The PEV valuation points for China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific are at 45.2%, 56.3%, and 62.1% respectively, indicating potential for further valuation improvement supported by regulatory policies and market conditions [6][9] Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from an active equity capital market in Q3 2025, with a 213% year-on-year increase in average daily trading volume and a 56% increase in average margin financing balance [7] - The current PB ratio for the brokerage industry is approximately 1.42 times, which is at the 61% percentile since 2020, indicating a favorable valuation environment [7] Market Preference Changes - Increased global political and economic uncertainties may lead to a shift from high-valuation to lower-valuation sectors, with the financial industry potentially serving as a medium for such transitions [8] - Historical performance indicates that the non-bank financial sector has shown strong performance during periods of rising risk appetite, suggesting a potential rebound in the near future [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Campisi model, a classic attribution framework in the fixed - income field, decomposes the total return of a pure - bond fund into four effects: income, treasury, spread, and selection effects, helping to evaluate a fund manager's abilities such as duration management and credit mining [6]. - The net - based Campisi model (RBA) constructs seven risk factors through factor regression, with advantages in high - frequency tracking and dynamic adaptability, capable of capturing strategy adjustments and market environment changes [2][80]. - The net - based Campisi model has strong explanatory power for fixed - income funds. From early 2025 to August 22, 2025, the adjusted R - squared generally exceeded 0.6, indicating that the model can explain most of the income sources [2][80]. - The model can identify strategy characteristics. For example, in 2025, interest - rate bond funds generally extended their durations, and credit bond funds shifted to a diversified strategy due to narrowing spreads. "Fixed - income +" funds balanced risks and returns through diversified rating allocations and maintained high exposure to option - containing assets [2][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Performance Attribution of Fixed - Income Funds - The core value of fixed - income fund performance attribution lies in evaluating management capabilities, guiding investment decisions, and optimizing risk management. Its practical significance benefits investors, managers, and regulatory agencies [5]. 3.2 Net - based Campisi Model 3.2.1 Campisi Model Principle - The Campisi model decomposes the total return of a pure - bond fund into four effects: income, treasury, spread, and selection effects, helping to assess a fund manager's abilities in various aspects [6]. - The income effect is the coupon income during bond holding, independent of market interest rate fluctuations. The treasury effect measures the impact of changes in risk - free interest rates on bond prices, and the spread effect reflects the impact of changes in credit spreads on bond prices. The selection effect reflects the fund manager's active management ability [7][8][13]. - The Campisi model can be divided into the portfolio - based (PBA) and net - based (RBA) models. PBA has high decomposition accuracy but low timeliness, while RBA has high - frequency tracking and dynamic adaptability [14]. 3.2.2 Model Construction and Factor Selection - The net - based Campisi model decomposes bond returns into seven factors: interest - rate level, term structure, convexity, credit spread, rating spread, convertible bond, and equity factors [18]. - Each factor has its own construction method and reflects different aspects of a fund's risk exposure and strategy preference. For example, the interest - rate level factor reflects the impact of the parallel shift of the interest - rate curve on bond portfolio returns, and the convertible bond factor captures the income contribution of convertible bond assets [20][34]. 3.2.3 Factor Performance and Processing - Since January 2020, the convertible bond and equity factors have fluctuated greatly, while non - option - containing factors have shown an upward trend in the long - term. The interest - rate level, term structure, credit spread, and rating spread factors have stable long - term trends, and the convexity factor has the smallest fluctuation [39]. - There are certain correlations among the factors. For example, the convertible bond factor and the equity factor have a strong positive correlation, while the interest - rate level factor has a negative correlation with the convertible bond and equity factors [40]. 3.3 Bond Fund Performance Evaluation Empirical Analysis 3.3.1 Pure - Bond Fund Attribution Analysis - From early 2025 to August 22, 2025, the adjusted R - squared of interest - rate bond funds and credit bond funds was generally high, indicating that the model can explain most of the fund income [45]. - Compared with 2024, in 2025, interest - rate bond funds generally extended their durations and increased exposure to convexity factors. Credit bond funds also extended their durations but to a lesser extent, and their investment strategies became more diversified [45][50][52]. - Short - term bond funds have a higher average exposure to the term structure factor, reflecting their preference for short - term bonds. Medium - and long - term bond funds have more diversified investment directions in credit bonds [55]. 3.3.2 Characteristics of Top - Ranked Pure - Bond Funds in Alpha in 2025 - Top - ranked medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds in Alpha generally have higher exposure to the interest - rate level factor and negative exposure to the term structure factor. Alpha, mainly from the selection effect, has a relatively small impact on their performance [58]. - Top - ranked medium - and long - term credit bond funds in Alpha have negative exposure to the rating spread factor, indicating a tendency to reduce credit risk exposure. Alpha also has a relatively small impact on their performance [61]. 3.3.3 "Fixed - Income +" Fund Attribution Analysis - From early 2025 to August 22, 2025, the adjusted R - squared of "fixed - income +" funds was generally high, and most of them had positive Alpha, indicating strong overall active management ability [63]. - In a low - interest - rate environment, "fixed - income +" funds balance risks and returns through diversified rating allocations and maintain high exposure to option - containing assets [67]. 3.3.4 Characteristics of "Fixed - Income +" Funds with Strong Active Management Ability in 2025 - Top - ranked "fixed - income +" funds in Alpha rely more on the fund manager's active management ability, and Alpha has a greater impact on their performance [76]. - Top - ranked "fixed - income +" funds in the convertible bond factor also mostly have strong active management ability [78]. 3.4 Investment Analysis Opinions - The net - based Campisi model provides a systematic tool for fixed - income funds, helping investors screen and allocate funds with stable strategies and strong active management abilities [80][81].

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - As of the end of September 2025, the total wealth management scale reached 31.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.0 trillion yuan compared to the end of last year, but a decrease of 1.0 trillion yuan from the previous month [2][5][6] - The average annualized yield of pure fixed-income wealth management products slightly decreased, with the upper limit at 2.70% and the lower limit at 2.20% as of September 2025 [6][7] - The overall cost of interest-bearing liabilities for A-share listed banks is expected to drop to around 1.63% in Q4 2025, supporting a downward trend in bond yields [6][7] Group 2: Government Bond Market Outlook - The 10-year government bond yield was close to 1.8% at the end of September, with expectations for it to return to around 1.65% by the end of the year [7] - Recommendations for commercial banks to significantly increase their allocation of government bonds during the market adjustment period [7] - Anticipation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October, which may ease the China-US interest rate differential and open up more space for monetary policy easing in China [7] Group 3: Company Overview - Development Technology - Development Technology (920029.BJ) is positioned as a hidden champion in the overseas metering market, benefiting from the global smart grid construction wave [8][9] - The global smart metering market is projected to grow from USD 21.91 billion in 2022 to USD 32.46 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 8.2% [8][9] - The company has a strong market presence in Europe, with a market share exceeding 12%, and has successfully expanded into emerging markets [9][10] Group 4: Financial Performance and Projections - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%, and a net profit of over 390 million yuan, up 32% [10] - The company is expected to add 8 million smart terminals per year through its fundraising projects, which will help maintain its global leading position [10] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 757 million yuan, 935 million yuan, and 1.073 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17.0, 13.7, and 12.0 [10]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][8]. Core Views - The company is a technology-driven beauty manufacturing enterprise, firmly implementing a "major clients, major products" strategy. The Chinese cosmetics market is continuously expanding, driving growth in the cosmetics OEM industry. The company has established a good reputation in the industry and has built strong relationships with numerous brand clients [6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Growth - The Chinese cosmetics market is projected to reach CNY 579.1 billion by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%. The skincare market is expected to grow to CNY 318.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. The OEM industry has seen a compound annual growth rate of 15.1% from CNY 21.41 billion in 2017 to CNY 49.76 billion in 2023 [6][21][22]. 2. Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 371 million, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit of CNY 16.94 million, up 14.95% year-on-year. The company is expanding its market share despite a decline in gross margin due to changes in client and product structure [41][44]. 3. R&D and Market Expansion - The company holds 138 patents, including 120 invention patents, and has participated in drafting 7 national standards. It focuses on new raw material applications and formula development to support both new and existing brand clients. The company aims to penetrate overseas markets through participation in international exhibitions [48][55]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 54 million, CNY 65 million, and CNY 74 million, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are 36.5, 30.6, and 26.8 times. The report compares the company with peers, noting an average PE of 38.1 times for comparable companies in 2025 [8][41].

证券研究报告 保险Ⅱ 分红型疾病险实际支付成本或将下降，险司打开产品创新空间 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——对《关于推动健康保险高质量发展的指导意见》的点评 投资要点： 2025 年 9 月 30 日，国家金融监督管理总局发布《关于推动健康保险高质量发展的 指导意见（金发〔2025〕34 号），内容包括了积极发展商业医疗险、加快发展商业 护理险失能险、稳步发展疾病保险，推动健康险和健康管理融合发展，促进健康产 业协同发展和规范各类经办承办服务等六条意见，涵盖了健康险的核心主要险种（医 疗，长护、失能和疾病）和配套产业服务。 联系人 我们认为"稳步发展疾病保险"中提到的"支持监管评级良好的保险公司开展分红 型长期健康保险业务"对上市保险公司影响较大： 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 15 日 证券分析师 陆韵婷 SAC：S1350525050002 luyunting@huayuanstock.com 沈晨 SAC：S1350525090002 shenchen@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 1、近年来长期疾病险新单销售情况不理想：从行业数据来看，人身险中健康险总 ...

行业评级：看好（维持） 证券研究报告|行业专题报告 公用事业 2025年10月15日 全球脱碳催化绿醇需求放量 关注绿醇供应商与设备投资机遇 证券分析师 证券分析师 姓名：孙延 SAC： S1350524050003 邮箱： sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 姓名：张付哲 SAC： S1350525070001 邮箱：zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 姓名：查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 邮箱：zhahao@huayuanstock.com 姓名：刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 邮箱：liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 姓名：戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 邮箱：daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 联系人 姓名：豆鹏超 邮箱：doupengchao@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 主要内容 1. 供需：碳排成本催化绿醇需求 航运打开千亿市场空间 2. 绿醇供应商：关注具有成本与消纳优势的弹性个股 3. 中游设备企业：项目开工带动生物质气化炉需求 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the company, with a price of 7.50 CNY per share and a P/E ratio of 10.59X for the upcoming issuance [2][5]. Core Insights - The company, Taikaiying, is recognized as a "little giant" in the engineering radial tire sector, with a projected CAGR of 37.81% for net profit from 2021 to 2024 [10][47]. - The company has developed over 600 tire products suitable for various operational scenarios and holds 166 patents [13][16]. - The engineering radial tire market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 16 billion USD by 2029 [56][60]. Summary by Sections 1. Initial Issuance - The company plans to issue 44,250,000 shares at a price of 7.50 CNY per share, representing 20% of the total post-issuance share capital [2][5]. - The net proceeds from the issuance will be invested in projects aimed at upgrading specialized tire products and enhancing technological capabilities [8][9]. 2. Company Overview - Taikaiying specializes in the design, research, and sales of tires for mining and construction, focusing on reducing tire consumption and improving operational efficiency [10][22]. - The company has a diverse product range, including engineering radial tires and all-steel truck tires, with projected revenues of 1.718 billion CNY from engineering radial tires in 2024 [20][36]. 3. Industry Insights - The global market for engineering radial tires is estimated at 8 billion USD in 2023, with a significant growth trajectory expected [56][60]. - The trend towards radialization in the tire industry is evident, with China's overall radialization rate reaching 95.20% in 2022, although the engineering tire radialization rate was only 43.2% in 2023 [58][61].