证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 05 日 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 赵孟田 SAC：S1350525070004 zhaomengtian@huayuanstock.com 联系人 长端收益率走高，利差大多小幅收窄 ——信用分析周报（2025/12/29-2026/1/4） 投资要点： 本周信用热点事件：12 月 26 日"15 天安人寿"公告实质性违约。 本周市场概览： 1）一级市场：本周传统信用债发行量、偿还量、净融资额环比上周均有所减少；资 产支持证券净融资额环比上周减少 192 亿元。本周由于元旦节前整体发行量较少， 不同评级不同券种的平均发行利率较上周变化幅度相对较大。 2）二级市场：本周信用债成交量环比上周减少 8328 亿元；换手率方面，本周信用 债换手率较上周整体下行。本周 1Y 短端信用债收益率小幅下行，其余不同评级不同 期限的信用债收益率大多有所上行。总体来看，本周不同行业不同评级的信用利差 较上周波动幅度均不超过 5BP，且大多有所压缩。具体来看，本周 ...

证券研究报告 电子 | 半导体 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 05 日 证券分析师 葛星甫 SAC：S1350524120001 gexingfu@huayuanstock.com 熊宇翔 xiongyuxiang@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | | | | 2025 | 年 | 12 月 | | 日 | 31 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 36.78 | | | | | | 一 年 最 低 | 最 | 高 | / | | | | | | | 内 | 47.60/28.90 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | | | 65,814.67 | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | | | 65,814.67 | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the automotive industry, particularly in areas such as robotics, solid-state batteries, and intelligent driving for 2026 [2][32]. Core Insights - The total market capitalization of automotive stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange increased by 70% in 2025, with notable stock price increases for companies like Kaiter Co., which saw a rise of 178% [2][21]. - In 2025, China's automotive production and sales reached 31.23 million and 31.12 million units respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.9% and 11.4% [7][10]. - The report highlights five key trends for 2026 in the automotive sector: (1) localization of core components for robotics, (2) technological breakthroughs in battery segments, (3) transformation and upgrading of electric vehicle components, (4) intelligent driving sensors and electronic systems, and (5) innovative applications of lightweight materials [32][34]. Summary by Sections Automotive Industry Overview - In the first eleven months of 2025, China's automotive production and sales maintained double-digit year-on-year growth, with significant contributions from the collaboration across the supply chain [7][8]. - The report notes that the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 47.5% of total new car sales during the same period, with production and sales of 14.91 million and 14.78 million units respectively, marking growth rates of 31.4% and 31.2% [8][11]. Market Performance - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for automotive stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange increased from 22.07X to 35.26X, a growth rate of 60% [21][23]. - The report indicates that the median market capitalization of automotive stocks rose from 34.134 billion yuan to 58.024 billion yuan [21][23]. Key Companies and Trends - Companies such as Sanxie Electric and JunChuang Technology are highlighted for their potential in the robotics sector, particularly in humanoid robots [32][33]. - The report emphasizes the importance of solid-state batteries as a core direction for future battery technology, with companies like YuanHang Precision and NaKonoer being noted for their advancements [32][34]. - The shift towards lightweight materials in the automotive industry is also discussed, with companies like HeChang Polymer and JiYuan Precision being recognized for their innovative approaches [34].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The New Year's holiday consumption data showed strong performance, likely due to the longer holiday period compared to the previous year. Anticipation for the upcoming 9-day Spring Festival holiday is high [4] - Emerging consumer goods are thriving, reflecting new consumption concepts among the younger generation. Understanding these new narratives is key to capturing growth opportunities in new consumer companies [17] Summary by Relevant Sections Travel Data - During the New Year's holiday, an estimated 590 million people traveled, with an average of 198 million daily, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. Railway passenger volume is expected to reach 48.22 million, a 53.1% increase, while civil aviation passenger volume is expected to be 5.88 million, a 10.49% increase [4] Key Scenic Area Data - Ticket bookings for the "Xi'an City Wall and Beilin Historical Cultural Scenic Area" surged by 134% year-on-year. The growth rate for cultural tourism bookings in Xi'an reached 41%. Mountain scenic area ticket bookings increased by over 150%, with Huangshan orders up 544% year-on-year [4] Duty-Free Sales - During the New Year's holiday, 442,000 duty-free items were sold, a 52.4% increase year-on-year, with shopping amounts reaching 712 million yuan, up 128.9% [4] Restaurant and Hotel Performance - Data from Haidilao indicated over 400,000 table reservations for New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. Hotel occupancy rates increased by nearly 50% compared to the previous year [4] Cosmetics Market - Douyin's beauty segment GMV exceeded 210 billion yuan from January to November 2025, with an annual forecast of over 230 billion yuan. The growth rate for color cosmetics and beauty tools was 24.8%, slightly higher than skincare products [4] Investment Recommendations - In the beauty sector, focus on high-quality domestic brands with strong innovation, such as Maogeping and Shangmei. In the gold and jewelry sector, consider brands like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji that appeal to younger consumers. For trendy toys, companies with successful IP creation and operation experience, like Pop Mart, are recommended. In the ready-to-drink tea sector, strong brands with wide coverage like Mixue Group and Guming are suggested [5][17]

Group 1: Fixed Income and Manufacturing PMI - Manufacturing PMI showed a seasonal rebound, rising to 50.1% in December, marking the first time since April 2025 that it returned above the growth line [4][5] - The increase in PMI is attributed to positive developments in US-China trade negotiations, rapid growth in high-tech manufacturing, and capacity expansion in certain industries [4][5] - Non-manufacturing PMI also returned to expansion, with a business activity index of 50.2%, indicating overall stability in the service sector [6][7] Group 2: Metals and New Materials - Copper prices experienced high volatility after reaching historical highs, with domestic copper inventories significantly increasing [10][11] - Aluminum prices broke new highs, driven by expectations of increased demand, particularly in the home appliance sector, and the continuation of consumption policies in 2026 [11][12] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with lithium prices entering an upward cycle due to ongoing inventory depletion [12][13] Group 3: Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - Blue Arrow Aerospace is set to become the first private commercial rocket company listed in China, aiming to raise 7.5 billion for enhancing reusable rocket capabilities [16][17] - The commercial space sector is experiencing rapid growth driven by policy support, with significant satellite deployment plans underway [17][18] - The company has secured contracts with major clients for launch services, indicating strong market recognition and demand for its innovative technologies [18] Group 4: North Exchange Market - In December 2025, 34 companies on the North Exchange saw their stock prices double, indicating a strong market rebound [20][21] - The market is expected to experience a "spring surge" in 2026, with a focus on sectors like commercial aerospace and energy [22][23] - The North Exchange A-share index's PE ratio reached 46 times, suggesting a competitive valuation compared to other markets [21][23] Group 5: Semiconductor Equipment - Maiwei Co., Ltd. is positioned as a high-end precision equipment manufacturer, focusing on solar, semiconductor, and display applications [24][25] - The company has secured significant orders for HJT and perovskite-silicon heterojunction battery production lines, indicating its technological leadership [26][28] - In the semiconductor sector, the company is experiencing rapid growth in new orders, surpassing the total orders from the previous year [28][29]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Forecasts for December 2025: 700 billion yuan in new loans, 1.8 trillion yuan in social financing increment; at the end of December, M2 reaches 338.1 trillion yuan with a YoY increase of 7.8%, new - caliber M1 YoY + 4.4%, and social financing growth rate at 8.2% [1] - New loans in December may be less year - on - year, and new loans in 2026 may also be less year - on - year due to weak credit demand and rising credit risks [2] - M1 growth rate may decline in December, and M2 growth rate may also decline slightly [2] - Social financing growth rate may continue to decline, and it is expected to drop to about 7.3% by the end of 2026 [2] - There may be a rebound in the bond market in January [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs New Loans - Forecasts 700 billion yuan in new loans in December 2025, with individual loans at - 20 billion yuan, corporate loans at + 650 billion yuan, and non - bank interbank loans at + 50 billion yuan [2] - For corporate loans, short - term loans are expected to be + 100 billion yuan, medium - and long - term loans + 50 billion yuan, and bill financing + 500 billion yuan [2] - For individual loans, short - term loans are expected to be - 50 billion yuan, and medium - and long - term loans + 30 billion yuan [2] M1 and M2 - New - caliber M1 growth rate is expected to be 4.4% at the end of December, a slight decline from the previous month [2] - M2 growth rate is expected to be 7.8% at the end of December, a slight decline from the previous month [2] Social Financing - Forecasts 1.8 trillion yuan in social financing increment in December 2024, with a large year - on - year decrease mainly from credit and net government bond financing [2] - Expected components in December: 650 billion yuan in RMB loans to the real economy, - 100 billion yuan in undiscounted bank acceptance bills, 250 billion yuan in net corporate bond financing, and 500 billion yuan in net government bond financing [2] - Social financing growth rate is expected to drop to 8.2% at the end of December, a 0.3 - percentage - point decline from the previous month [2] Bond Market - From November 20 to the end of December 2025, long - term bonds, especially ultra - long - term bonds, adjusted significantly [2] - Factors supporting bond investment include the rapid decline in bank liability costs, the prominent allocation value of government bonds after adjustment, and weak credit demand [2] - Insurance funds may increase the allocation of ultra - long - term bonds, and the bond fund scale is expected to stabilize or increase slightly [2] - The bond market may rebound in January [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media and internet industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential growth of mini-games on platforms like WeChat, driven by new incentive policies that encourage developers to create high-quality content [5][6] - The film and television sectors are expected to benefit from upcoming releases and new government initiatives aimed at enhancing content supply [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications across various sectors, including education, e-commerce, and gaming, suggesting that companies embracing AI technology will benefit from industry transformations [7][8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector ranked third among all industries with a 2.13% increase from December 29 to December 31, 2025 [15] - The report notes that the advertising, digital media, and film sectors performed well, while publishing, broadcasting, and gaming sectors lagged [16] Game Sector - Mini-games are expected to evolve from casual entertainment to more substantial and high-quality offerings, with significant growth potential in the gaming market [6] - Major titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Delta Force" are anticipated to maintain strong performance through frequent content updates [6] Film and Television Sector - The report indicates that the total box office for the week of December 29 to January 4 was 896 million yuan, with "Zootopia 2" leading the box office [40][41] - The television series "Punishment 2" achieved the highest viewership on platforms like iQIYI, indicating strong audience engagement [42][43] New Business Models - The report discusses the rise of "group broadcasting" as a new business model that shifts from individual-driven growth to system-driven growth, suggesting a focus on companies involved in this transition [9] - The introduction of new IPs and collaborations in the toy and merchandise sectors is highlighted as a strategy to drive consumer engagement [10] AI Applications - The report suggests that advancements in AI technology will lead to innovative applications across various industries, enhancing user engagement and revenue potential [7][46] - Companies that actively integrate AI into their operations are expected to gain a competitive edge in the evolving market landscape [46]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Demand expectations for aluminum have been raised, leading to a strong breakthrough in aluminum prices [3] - Copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations after breaking historical highs, with significant inventory accumulation in domestic markets [5] - The lithium sector is entering an upward price cycle driven by strong demand, despite being in the off-season [79] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply [91] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - China's manufacturing PMI for December exceeded expectations at 50.1, compared to the forecast of 49.2 [8] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 27 were lower than expected at 199,000 [8] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.41% [11] - The sector's PE_TTM is 28.46, while the PB_LF is 3.51, indicating a premium over the broader market [20] Copper - London copper prices increased by 2.39%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.49% [25] - Domestic copper inventory saw a significant increase of 30.11%, while London copper inventory decreased by 7.45% [25] Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 1.79%, and Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 1.59% [37] - The profit margin for aluminum enterprises increased by 7.18% to 6,862 CNY/ton [37] Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices rose by 5.90% to 118,500 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices increased by 3.89% to 1,548 USD/ton [79] - The lithium sector is expected to see a reversal in supply-demand dynamics, leading to a price increase [79] Cobalt - MB cobalt prices rose by 1.53% to 24.88 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices increased by 10.11% to 490,000 CNY/ton [91] - Domestic smelting margins for cobalt increased by 74.85% to 96,700 CNY/ton [91]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO represents a significant event in China's private commercial aerospace sector, focusing on the development and production of liquid oxygen-methane engines and launch services for reusable rockets [3][8] - The company aims to raise a total of 7.5 billion yuan, primarily for projects enhancing the capacity and technology of reusable rockets, which is expected to strengthen its delivery capabilities across the entire rocket lifecycle [3][8] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing robust growth driven by policy support, marking a critical turning point in commercialization and positioning it as a potential trillion-yuan strategic emerging industry [9][11] Summary by Sections Section 1: Blue Arrow Aerospace's Market Position - Blue Arrow Aerospace is set to become the first private commercial rocket company listed in China, focusing on reusable rocket technology and aiming to establish a comprehensive aerospace technology ecosystem [3][8] - The company has successfully developed over 140 units of its "Tianque" series liquid oxygen-methane engines and achieved significant milestones, including the successful launch of China's first reusable liquid oxygen-methane rocket, "Zhuque-3" [10] Section 2: Industry Trends and Opportunities - The demand for low-cost, high-frequency rocket launches is expected to increase significantly due to the accelerated deployment of satellite constellations, such as the "GW Constellation" and "Qianfan Constellation," which plan to deploy over 12,990 and 15,000 satellites, respectively, by 2030 [9][10] - The commercial satellite internet and remote sensing sectors are anticipated to drive demand for Blue Arrow Aerospace's services, positioning the company favorably within the expanding commercial aerospace market [11] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to pay attention to companies associated with Blue Arrow Aerospace, including Jin Feng Technology and its supply chain partners such as Srei New Materials and Aerospace Power [11]

投资评级：看好（维持） 证券研究报告|行业专题报告 燃气Ⅱ 2025年12月31日 阵痛转型步入尾声 业务重构开启新机 --燃气行业2026年度投资策略 证券分析师 姓名：秦雨茁 邮箱：qinyuzhuo@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 投资要点 2 n 全球天然气市场供需格局重塑，预计2026年起全球LNG产能集中释放，而全球需求增速2025年或放缓，2026年或略有回升， 供需宽松背景下全球天然气价格有望持续下行周期。中石化经研院预测2026年东北亚LNG现货均价9.5~11.5美元/百万英热， TTF均价8.5~10.5美元/百万英热，下行趋势明显；而美国受到下游需求和出口增长驱动，预计HH均价小幅上涨至3.4~3.9美 元/百万英热。同时原油价格有望延续下行趋势，EIA预测2026年布伦特原油年平均价格为55美元/桶。 n 国际油气价格下行趋势有望促进城燃公司成本改善、需求释放。城燃公司气源结构主要来自三桶油、海外长协及现货等，三 桶油方面，低成本国产气产量高增、占比提升，同时油价下行有望带动进口管道气成本改善，三桶油成本端全方位改善，面 临海气价格冲击下 ...