Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical index increased by 1.31% from October 27 to October 31, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.74%. The third-quarter reports have been released, showing strong performance in exports and innovative drugs, although a period of performance vacuum is expected post-reports [5][6] - The report emphasizes a focus on innovative drugs, with key stocks to watch including Xinlitai, Zexing Pharmaceutical, and others in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. It also suggests attention to export-oriented CXO companies and stable, undervalued assets expected to see changes in 2026 [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Q3 2025 Report Summary: Decrease in Holdings, Strong Performance in Exports and Innovation - As of Q3 2025, the total market value of active public funds in pharmaceuticals was 228.4 billion yuan, accounting for 11.08% of total public fund holdings, a slight decrease of 0.39 percentage points [11][12] - The report indicates a decline in holdings for both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical theme funds, with innovative drugs maintaining a significant portion of the holdings [17][20] 2. Q3 2025 Performance Summary: Internal Sector Disparities - The report highlights significant disparities in growth rates across different pharmaceutical sectors, with innovative drugs showing a bright overall trend and CXO services experiencing a rebound. The traditional chemical drug sector continues to face challenges due to centralized procurement [25][26] 3. Industry Perspective: Focus on Innovative Drugs and Low-Valuation Assets - The report maintains that innovative drugs should be the main focus for the year, with attention to manufacturing exports and aging consumer markets. The pharmaceutical index has shown a year-to-date increase of 21.10% [52] - Key stocks recommended for November include Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, Xinlitai, and others, indicating a strategic approach to investment in the sector [6][54]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - Q3 performance was below expectations, but the ongoing construction of nuclear units supports long-term growth potential [5] - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 20.662 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.72%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 23.5% [7] - The decline in profitability is attributed to lower electricity prices and increased tax burdens, impacting both nuclear and renewable energy segments [7] - The company is actively promoting the multi-purpose use of nuclear energy, with significant projects underway that could enhance future profitability [7] - There are 19 units under construction or awaiting approval, with a total capacity of approximately 22 GW, which is expected to contribute to stable long-term growth [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 74.957 billion yuan (2023), 77.272 billion yuan (2024), 82.075 billion yuan (2025E), 86.317 billion yuan (2026E), and 97.042 billion yuan (2027E) [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 10.624 billion yuan (2023), 8.777 billion yuan (2024), 9.189 billion yuan (2025E), 9.282 billion yuan (2026E), and 10.222 billion yuan (2027E) [6] - The company’s P/E ratios for 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 21, 20.78, and 18.87 respectively [6] - The expected dividend yield for 2024 to 2027 is around 2% to 2.2% [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the yield of the 10Y Treasury bond will return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury bond to 1.9%, and the 5Y Tier 2 capital bonds of large banks to 1.9% (for bonds without VAT) [74]. Core Viewpoints - The revenue growth rate of the entire A-share market and the net profit growth rate of the parent company are at a low level, indicating that the economic growth rate may have stabilized at a low level but still faces downward pressure. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond is more closely related to the revenue growth rate of the entire A-share market than the nominal GDP growth rate [1][4]. - The loan growth rate has been declining, and the proportion of loans in the bank's asset side is decreasing. The demand for personal and corporate loans may be weak in the long term, while the scale of government bonds may significantly expand. The asset structure of the banking system may face long-term changes, with the proportion of loans likely to decline significantly [21][24]. - Since the beginning of 2023, the proportion of financial investments of large banks has rebounded, and the growth rate of bond investments has increased. The cost rate of interest-bearing liabilities of listed banks has been decreasing quarter by quarter, and it is expected to further decline in the future [1][49]. - The decline in bank liability costs will support the downward oscillation of bond yields. Given the current economic situation, the rapid decline in bank liability costs, and the loose capital situation, the report is bullish on the bond market [70][74]. Summary by Directory 1. Analyzing Economic and Bank Operating Pressures from the Q3 Reports of the Entire A-share Market - **Economic Insights from the Entire A-share Performance**: The revenue growth rate of the entire A-share market can reflect the nominal GDP growth rate to some extent. The revenue growth rate of the entire A-share market and the 10-year Treasury bond yield have a similar trend. The performance growth rate of the entire A-share market is still under pressure, and the growth rate of the real economy also faces significant pressure [5][6][9]. - **Economic Insights from the Bank Sector Performance**: The performance of the banking sector is closely related to the economy. In recent years, the performance growth of the banking sector has been under significant pressure, and the net interest margin of commercial banks has been continuously declining [11][12][15]. - **Financing Demand from the Entire A-share Liabilities**: Since Q1 2024, the long-term borrowing growth of the entire A-share market (excluding finance, petroleum, and petrochemicals) has almost stagnated, reflecting the weak financing demand of market-oriented enterprises. The social financing growth rate generally leads the nominal GDP growth rate by 1 - 2 quarters, but its guiding role may decline in the future [18][20]. 2. Changes in Bank Asset and Liability Situations - **Declining Loan Growth Rates of Large and Small Banks**: The loan growth rate has significantly declined. The growth of personal housing loans is facing negative growth pressure, which significantly drags down the growth rate of personal loans. The loan growth rates of both large and small banks have declined, and the proportion of loans is also decreasing. In the long term, the asset structure of the banking system may change, with the proportion of loans likely to decline and the proportion of bond investments likely to increase [21][25][36]. - **Decreasing Deposit Proportion on the Liability Side of Large Banks and Stable Deposit Proportion of Small Banks**: The growth of corporate deposits of large banks has slowed down. In recent years, the proportion of deposits on the liability side of large banks has decreased, while the average deposit proportion of listed joint-stock banks has increased [37][48]. 3. Banks with Significant Financial Investment Growth in Q3 2025 - Since the beginning of 2023, the proportion of financial investments of large banks has rebounded. In Q3 2025, the financial investments of some banks, such as ICBC and CCB, increased significantly, while those of a few banks decreased. The financial investment increments of large banks, joint-stock banks, and city and rural commercial banks were all significant, and the bond investment growth rates of the Big Four banks and small and medium-sized banks were also relatively high [49][56][59]. 4. Decrease in Bank Interest-Bearing Liability Costs - In 2025, the decline of the current deposit proportion slowed down. Since the beginning of 2024, the deposit interest payment rate has significantly decreased, and the interest-bearing liability cost rate has been decreasing quarter by quarter. It is expected to further decline in the future [60][63][66]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The decline in bank liability costs will support the downward oscillation of bond yields. In the future, the liability costs of commercial banks are expected to decline year by year, which will drive the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond to decline. Given the current economic situation and the value of government bond allocation, it is recommended that commercial bank self-operated departments increase the allocation of government bonds. The report is bullish on the bond market [70][73][74].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the median revenue of the North Exchange consumer service industry increased year-on-year in Q3 2025, while net profit faced pressure, with new consumption and overseas enterprises performing relatively well [1][2][5] - As of October 31, 2025, all 40 companies in the North Exchange consumer service industry had released their Q3 reports, with 50% achieving positive net profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][5][19] - The median revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 was 371 million yuan (up 6.82% year-on-year), while the median net profit was 23.1 million yuan (down 9.58 year-on-year) [2][15][19] Group 2 - In Q3 2025, the median revenue was 128 million yuan (up 8.60% year-on-year), and the median net profit was 8.64 million yuan (down 9.20% year-on-year) [15][19] - The report highlights that 8 companies had both revenue and net profit growing year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, while 17 companies experienced both revenue and net profit growth quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025 [19][21] - Key companies such as Kangnong Agriculture, Shisheng Intelligent, and Taihu Snow showed significant operational performance, with notable growth in prepayments and overseas business [24][25] Group 3 - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for North Exchange consumer service companies increased from 50.3X to 53.6X, with a total market capitalization rising from 116.211 billion yuan to 119.681 billion yuan [26][30] - The report indicates that the median P/E ratio for the broader consumer industry rose by 6.97% to 56.3X, with significant increases in the food and beverage sector as well [35][36] - The report also notes that the top gainers in market capitalization included companies like Longzhu Technology and Meizhigao, with respective increases of 19.28% and 15.80% [25][34]

Overall Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, 53% of the companies in the North Exchange technology growth sector reported positive net profit growth [11][12][15] - The median revenue of the electronic equipment sector was 229 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.50%, while the median net profit decreased by 7.58% [17][18] - The median revenue of the machinery equipment sector was 204 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.63%, and the median net profit increased by 6.22% [27][32] - The median revenue of the automotive sector was 385 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.49%, and the median net profit increased by 5.01% [5][44] - The median revenue of the new energy sector was 729 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.68%, while the median net profit decreased by 33.37% [7][25] Electronic Equipment Sector - Among 46 companies in the electronic equipment sector, 18 reported positive growth in both revenue and net profit in Q1-Q3 2025 [25][26] - Key growth drivers included product structure optimization and increased market competitiveness due to R&D investments and government support policies [25][26] Machinery Equipment Sector - The machinery equipment sector showed signs of stabilization, with 7 companies reporting positive growth in both revenue and net profit in Q1-Q3 2025 [30][31] - Growth was attributed to increased demand for core products and successful market expansion efforts [30][31] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with 11 companies reporting positive growth in both revenue and net profit in Q1-Q3 2025 [5][44] - Companies like 旺成科技 and 捷众科技 expanded their market presence and diversified their product offerings, contributing to their revenue growth [5][6] New Energy Sector - In the new energy sector, only 4 out of 19 companies reported positive growth in both revenue and net profit in Q1-Q3 2025 [7][25] - Companies like 酉立智能 and 长虹能源 achieved significant revenue growth due to effective market expansion and product competitiveness [7][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue growth of 1.46% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with international business continuing its growth trend [5][7] - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency through overseas capacity expansion and product innovation, aiming to solidify its competitive advantage in the apparel accessories sector [7] Financial Summary - For 2023, the company is projected to have a revenue of 3,907 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.67% [6] - The estimated revenue for 2024 is 4,674 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 19.66% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is expected to be 694 million RMB, showing a slight decline of 0.91% compared to 2024 [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 15.54% in 2025, increasing to 18.75% by 2027 [6][9] Market Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 43.71% for the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 1.01 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The net profit margin for the same period was 16.06%, down by 1.36 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company’s international business revenue for the first half of 2025 was 8.64 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.72%, accounting for 36.97% of total revenue [7] Operational Insights - The company is actively pursuing a global strategy, with operational industrial parks in Bangladesh and Vietnam, and aims to enhance its international capacity utilization [7] - The company’s financial expenses increased significantly by 1436.18% due to international exchange rate impacts and a decline in interest income [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported stable operations in the third quarter and plans to raise funds through a private placement of A-shares for wind power projects [6][8] - The company experienced a revenue decline of 17.29% year-on-year in the first three quarters, primarily due to the divestment of thermal power assets [8] - The company aims to alleviate investment pressure in wind power through a planned A-share issuance, which is expected to improve cash flow [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 37,642 million RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 5.6% [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 6,249 million RMB in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.24% [7] - The company’s total installed capacity reached 43.42 million kilowatts by the end of September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17% [8] Operational Highlights - The company generated 565 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in the first three quarters, a slight decrease of 0.53% year-on-year, but a 13.81% increase when excluding thermal power [8] - Wind power and photovoltaic generation increased by 5.3% and 77.98% respectively in the same period [8] - The company plans to issue 361 million A-shares to raise 5 billion RMB for wind power projects [8] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 6,208 million RMB, with a corresponding PE ratio of 9 [7][8] - The company expects net profits of 6,338 million RMB in 2026 and 6,875 million RMB in 2027, with PE ratios of 8.7 and 8 respectively [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in profitability with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 131% for Q1-Q3 2025, reaching 106.65 million yuan [7] - The company is positioned as a key player in the domestic market for wet-type friction materials, particularly in the automotive sector, with a focus on electric vehicles [5][7] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of Electronic Limited Slip Differential (ELSD) in the domestic market, which is projected to enhance vehicle stability and safety [7] Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 3.26 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a 69% year-on-year growth [7] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 153 million, 220 million, and 316 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 34, 24, and 16 [5][6] - Revenue is expected to grow from 510 million yuan in 2025 to 1,010 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 41.11% [6][8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is the only domestic enterprise capable of full-process independent production of wet-type paper-based friction plates for passenger car automatic transmissions, establishing a strong competitive edge [5] - The company has established deep partnerships with leading domestic brands such as BYD, SAIC, and Geely, enhancing its market presence [5] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with a new factory expected to be completed by November 2025, aiming for an annual capacity of 80 million pieces by the end of 2025 [7]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The manufacturing PMI has significantly declined, indicating a favorable environment for the bond market, influenced by the progress in US-China trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2][6] - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis points rate cut and the end of balance sheet reduction in December may ease global liquidity pressures, potentially narrowing the interest rate differential between China and the US, attracting foreign capital back [2][6] - The new public fund regulations are expected to enhance performance benchmark management and optimize information disclosure, primarily impacting actively managed equity funds, which may lead to improved research and risk control capabilities among institutions [2][6] Group 2: Automotive Industry Outlook - The upcoming reduction of the new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidy by half in 2026 is anticipated to impact the sales of electric vehicles, with a projected growth rate of 9% for 2026 [15][19] - The expected decline in subsidies will affect approximately 90% of new energy vehicle consumers, particularly those purchasing lower-priced models, which may lead to a significant drop in total demand [17][18] - Despite the subsidy reduction, the industry is expected to maintain structural opportunities, with a projected 2025 new energy passenger vehicle insurance volume of 12.83 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19% [18][19] Group 3: Transportation Sector Developments - The logistics sector is showing signs of recovery, with the "Tongda system" companies reporting improved single-package profits, indicating the effectiveness of price increases in the fourth quarter [22][31] - The shipping market is experiencing a surge in VLCC rates, reaching a ten-year high of $125,000 per day, driven by tightening capacity and increased demand [24][25] - The recent US-China trade agreement is expected to alleviate trade tensions and boost shipping activities, particularly in container exports from China to the US [24][25] Group 4: Precious Metals Market Analysis - Recent declines in gold and silver prices follow a two-month period of strong increases, attributed to US-China trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes [36][38] - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of price recovery supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank policies [36][37]

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 03 日 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 ——利率周报（2025.10.27-2025.11.2） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 制造业 PMI 回落明显，债市处于顺风期 报告核心观点：中美经贸谈判进展与美联储降息内外联动，叠加公募基金新规（征 求意见稿）出炉，多维度影响经济与市场。中美取消部分关税、暂停管制及解决 TikTok 问题，缓解出口压力，稳定外贸并刺激制造业投资，或支撑 Q4 经济。美联储 10 月 末降息 25BP 并将于 12 月结束缩表，或缓解全球流动性压力，可能收窄中美利差并 吸引外资回流，或为国内货币政策释放更大操作空间。公募基金新规推动业绩比较 基准规范管理，优化信息披露等机制，可能主要影响主动权益基金，或使机构提升 投研及风控能力，头部机构优势或持续凸显，中小机构产品或需差异化发展。 本周（10/27-11/2）市场概览： 其他要闻：中国人民 ...