交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 今日焦点 | 互联网行业 | | --- | | 互联网平台布局大消费，整合资源，高效优化 | | 用户体验 | 谷馨瑜, CPA connie.gu@bocomgroup.com 事件：近日，阿里饿了么、飞猪并入阿里电商事业群。美团升级美团闪 购品牌。 阿里从电商平台向生活消费平台迈进，聚合即时零售、电商及旅游需 求，提升淘宝用户粘性，从而提升全平台全品类转化率，并已初见成 效。 美团优选退出部分亏损区域，聚焦闪购即时零售、小象超市前置仓，美 团亦形成即时零售、电商及本地生活全链条消费平台。我们认为美团外 卖虽面临较激烈竞争，但考虑到美团在商户运营，及运力储备仍领先， 我们预计外卖行业 GMV 口径市占率预计仍将维持美团：饿了么约 6： 3。 投资启示：阿里、美团通过整合资源，聚焦重要业务赛道，实现高效扩 张。阿里聚焦电商及云业务，按行业平均 8 倍市盈率及 5 倍云业务市销 率，阿里云现价对应估值有强支撑。我们观察美团外卖补贴策略调整与 商家运营亦有较大关系，美团现价对应 2025 年市盈率为 17 倍，建议关 注补贴策略调整带来的利润扭转机会。 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the internet sector [5]. Core Insights - The internet industry is witnessing a trend where platforms are integrating resources to enhance user experience and expand into large consumer markets. Alibaba is transitioning from an e-commerce platform to a comprehensive lifestyle consumption platform, while Meituan is focusing on instant retail and local life services [1][5]. - Alibaba's Taobao has significantly increased its investment in instant retail, achieving over 6 million daily orders by June 23, 2025, with a notable 75% of these being non-beverage orders. This strategy aims to enhance user stickiness and overall conversion rates across the platform [1]. - Meituan is adjusting its strategy by exiting loss-making areas and concentrating on instant retail and local services, with projected growth in order volume and revenue for the second quarter of 2025 [1]. Summary by Sections Business Updates - Recent announcements from major internet platforms include JD.com's entry into the OTA market and Alibaba's integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into its e-commerce division. Meituan is expanding its instant retail offerings and exploring new business models [1]. Financial Projections - The report estimates Alibaba's profit for the fiscal year 2026 to exceed 200 billion RMB, while Meituan's local business profit is expected to remain stable compared to 2024. Meituan's revenue growth is projected at 7% for instant retail and 10% for local business [1][5]. Market Positioning - The report highlights that Alibaba and Meituan are effectively leveraging resource integration to focus on key business areas, which is expected to drive efficient expansion. The market share for Meituan in the food delivery sector is anticipated to maintain a ratio of 6:3 against Ele.me [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company, Xin Ye Technology (FINV US), plans to issue $130 million in convertible notes due in 2030, with a coupon rate of 2.5%, to support its international business expansion [1][2] - 40% of the funds raised from the convertible notes will be used for share buybacks, while the remaining funds will primarily facilitate the company's overseas business growth [2] - The issuance of convertible notes is expected to result in a potential net increase in share capital of 2.3%, with minimal dilution impact due to cost savings [2] Group 2 - The company's international business is experiencing strong growth momentum, and the issuance of convertible notes is expected to accelerate the development of its overseas operations [2] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13 [2]

Group 1: Convertible Notes Issuance - The company plans to issue $130 million in convertible notes maturing in 2030, with an option for initial buyers to purchase up to $20 million more under a greenshoe option[1] - 40% of the raised funds, amounting to $60 million, will be used for stock buybacks at a price of $9.51 per ADS, reducing share capital by 2.5%[1] - The initial conversion price is set at $12.36 per ADS, allowing for a conversion ratio of 80.8865 ADS for every $1,000 principal[1] Group 2: Impact on International Business - The funds raised will primarily support international business expansion, which has higher loan rates and take rates[1] - The company expects a 10-15% year-over-year growth in net income by 2025, with international revenue projected to account for 25% of total income[1] - By 2030, the target is for international business to represent 50% of total revenue[1] Group 3: Dilution and Ratings - The potential dilution effect from the convertible notes issuance is estimated at 4.8%, offset by the 2.5% reduction from stock buybacks, resulting in a net increase of 2.3% in share capital[1] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 13, reflecting a potential upside of 40.5% from the current price of $9.25[4]

Group 1: Internet Industry - JD.com has launched the "Hotel PLUS Membership Program," allowing participating hotels to enjoy up to three years of zero commission, indicating JD's further expansion into local life services after its food delivery business reached a peak order volume of 25 million on June 1 [1] - The overlap in customer demographics between JD's food delivery and hotel services may significantly impact Ctrip, while Meituan and Tongcheng may be more affected in local consumption scenarios; however, Ctrip's supply chain barriers and Meituan's advantages in lower-tier markets are difficult to disrupt in the short term [1] - The difficulty in shaking up the OTA competitive landscape is higher than in the food delivery sector due to the low-frequency nature of travel consumption and the challenges in system integration and customer service capabilities [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The current price-to-earnings ratios for JD.com, Meituan, Ctrip, and Tongcheng are 7.5x, 17.9x, 15.9x, and 12.5x respectively, all at historical lows, highlighting the need to monitor the impact of competitive dynamics on short-term profits [2] - During the 2025 618 shopping festival, both Taobao and JD.com experienced accelerated growth in transaction volume and a double-digit increase in active users, driven by government subsidies and platform discounts [3] - The total funding support for consumer goods replacement programs reached 1,620 billion yuan in January and April, with an additional 1,380 billion yuan expected to be disbursed in the third and fourth quarters, which is anticipated to stabilize consumption in the second half of the year [3] Group 3: Economic Data - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the U.S. is expected to be released on June 23, with a previous reading of 52.00, while China's PMI for June is anticipated to be 49.50 [6] - The U.S. durable goods orders for May are expected to show a year-on-year decline of 6.30%, while the first quarter GDP growth rate is projected to be -0.20% compared to the previous 2.40% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of HKD 6.70, indicating a potential downside of 11.4% from the current price of HKD 7.56 [4][17]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a decline in profit for the fiscal year 2025 due to the impact of a warm winter, with a focus on the certainty of profit improvement in the following year [2][7]. - The forecast for fiscal year 2025 has been adjusted downwards by approximately 2% to reflect the impact of the warm winter on gas sales volume, with an expected core profit decrease of 6.4% to HKD 3.712 billion [7][8]. - The company anticipates a slight increase in retail gas volume of about 1% year-on-year, which is below the company's guidance of 2% [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to decline from HKD 91,988 million in 2023 to HKD 75,183 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% [3][18]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from HKD 4,293 million in 2023 to HKD 3,712 million in 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 6.4% [3][18]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to drop from HKD 0.76 in 2023 to HKD 0.68 in 2025, indicating a decrease of 6.4% [3][18]. Operational Insights - The company expects retail gas volume to grow by 2% year-on-year in fiscal year 2026, with a projected gas margin increase to RMB 0.54 per cubic meter [7][10]. - The number of new residential connections is anticipated to decline by approximately 21% to 1.25 million households in fiscal year 2025 [7][9]. - The company maintains a dividend of HKD 0.35 for the final period, with an annual payout of HKD 0.50 [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 11.1 times for fiscal year 2025, with an expected price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.75 [3][18]. - The company has a dividend yield of 6.6%, which is considered defensive [7][8]. - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 6.70 from the previous HKD 5.92, reflecting a more favorable valuation compared to other gas companies [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to major companies in the internet sector, including Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, and Pinduoduo, indicating expected total returns above the relevant industry benchmarks [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth during the 618 shopping festival, driven by government subsidies, platform promotions, and increased user engagement through instant retail [1][2]. - Alibaba's Tmall saw 453 brands achieve over 100 million RMB in sales, a 24% year-on-year increase, with a notable 116% increase in sales driven by government subsidies [2][3]. - JD.com reported a 100% increase in order numbers compared to the previous year, with over 22 billion total orders during the event, marking a historical high in daily active users [2][3]. - Meituan's flash sales achieved record transaction volumes, with over 1 billion users placing orders, and significant growth in high-ticket categories [2][3]. - Pinduoduo's investment in consumer incentives led to a doubling of sales in various categories, particularly among younger consumers [2][3]. Summary by Sections Alibaba - As of June 18, 2025, Tmall had 453 brands with sales exceeding 100 million RMB, a 24% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The number of purchasing users grew in double digits, with 88VIP membership surpassing 50 million [2][3]. - The platform's GMV, excluding refunds, increased by 10%, the highest growth in three years [2][3]. JD.com - From May 30 to June 18, 2025, JD.com experienced a 100% increase in order numbers, with total orders exceeding 22 billion [2][3]. - The app's daily active users reached a historical high of 212 million, a 51.2% year-on-year increase [2][3]. - The cross-selling between delivery and retail boosted PLUS membership registrations significantly [2][3]. Meituan - Meituan's flash sales achieved record highs, with over 60 categories and 850 brands doubling their sales [2][3]. - High-ticket items like electronics and alcohol saw sales increase by 10 to 11 times year-on-year [2][3]. - The platform's user spending per order increased by 40% year-on-year [2][3]. Pinduoduo - Pinduoduo's "100 billion support" initiative led to a doubling of sales in seasonal fruits and significant growth in electronics [2][3]. - The platform's government subsidy section expanded to 23 regions, with sales of subsidized products increasing by 177% [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for companies in the OTA industry, including Ctrip, Tongcheng, and Meituan, indicating expected total returns above the industry average over the next 12 months [44]. Core Insights - JD's entry into the OTA market through the "Hotel PLUS Membership Plan" is seen as a strategic move, but the difficulty in disrupting the existing OTA landscape is higher compared to the food delivery sector [1][29]. - The report highlights the differentiated competitive landscape in the OTA industry, with Ctrip focusing on the mid-to-high-end market, Tongcheng targeting lower-tier markets, and Meituan leveraging local life services to drive hotel bookings [29][41]. - The financial impact of JD's hotel business is estimated to involve a subsidy investment of 2 to 7.5 billion RMB, which could significantly affect the profitability of existing OTA platforms [1][29]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of the end of 2024, there are 350,000 hotels and 17.64 million rooms in mainland China, with 54% being economy hotels and a rising trend in hotel chain rates, reaching 40% [4][12]. - The average room price for star-rated hotels has shown fluctuations, with a projected stabilization in the second half of 2025 [18][29]. Competitive Landscape - Ctrip's hotel revenue is projected to reach 18.4 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13%, while Tongcheng's hotel revenue is expected to be 5.5 billion RMB, growing at 18% [29][31]. - The report notes that hotel business is the primary profit source for OTA platforms, with hotel monetization rates around 8-10% [29]. Financial Projections - The report estimates that if the monetization rate for hotels decreases by 1 percentage point, Ctrip's revenue and profit for 2025 could decline by 3% and 6%, respectively [1][29]. - The current price-to-earnings ratios for JD, Meituan, Ctrip, and Tongcheng are noted to be at historical lows, suggesting potential investment opportunities [1][29].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][17]. Core Views - The company has significant long-term potential for its core products, with innovative research and development outcomes expected to materialize soon [4][8]. - The report highlights the strong competitive landscape for the core product, Teibiao, which is the only approved drug for CIT indications globally, and anticipates continued market share growth [8][11]. - The company is transitioning from a reliance on traditional blockbuster products to a diversified product matrix driven by new product launches and international expansion [12][13]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company show a substantial increase, with expected revenues of RMB 19,236 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 111.2% [7]. - Net profit is projected to reach RMB 8,631 million in 2025, with a significant growth rate of 317.4% [7]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 50.58 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 252.8% [6]. Product Insights - Teibiao is expected to achieve sales of RMB 51 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% since 2020 [11][25]. - The product's market share in the platelet-stimulating drug category is projected to reach 34.3% by 2024, surpassing IL-11 class drugs [11][25]. - The company’s consumer healthcare product, Mandi, is anticipated to reach sales of RMB 13.4 billion in 2024, driven by a growing market for hair loss treatments [12]. Pipeline and Collaborations - The company has a robust pipeline with 30 products under development, including 12 expected to be approved in mainland China between 2025 and 2027 [13]. - A significant licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody SSGJ-707 is expected to yield up to USD 60.5 billion, showcasing the company's drug development capabilities [13][16]. Valuation and Price Target - The report sets a target price of HKD 27.0, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current stock price [17].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple pharmaceutical companies, including AstraZeneca, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, and Innovent Biologics, among others, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating for companies like Heng Rui Medicine and CSPC Pharmaceutical [2][15]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong prescription drug sector has shown a remarkable performance, with an average market capitalization-weighted increase of 65% year-to-date, surpassing the Hang Seng Medical Index and Hang Seng Index by 55% and 19%, respectively [4]. - Key market drivers include significant business development (BD) transactions, with 63 cross-border deals completed this year, of which 9 involved prescription drug companies, accounting for 37% of disclosed transaction values exceeding $1 billion [4][14]. - The report highlights that the average forward P/E ratio for the Hong Kong prescription drug sector is slightly above the past five-year average, indicating that core business valuations remain attractive despite higher apparent valuation levels [4][12]. Summary by Sections Valuation Overview - The report provides a detailed valuation table for various companies, indicating projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for FY25E and FY26E [2][12]. - For instance, Hansoh Pharmaceutical is projected to have a P/E of 33.0 for FY25E, while AstraZeneca is expected to have a target price of 93.30 [2][12]. Market Trends - The report includes a year-on-year trend analysis, showing the prescription drug sector's performance relative to the Hang Seng Index, indicating a strong upward trend [3][4]. - The report notes that the sector's performance is driven by improved earnings expectations and innovative product launches, which are expected to continue to support stock price recoveries [4][10]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong short-term earnings growth and long-term innovation potential, specifically highlighting companies like Xiansheng Pharmaceutical and suggesting attention to Hansoh, China National Pharmaceutical, and Tonghua Dongbao [4][15]. - Target prices for certain companies have been adjusted, with Hansoh and China National Pharmaceutical seeing upward revisions, while the rating for Kelun Pharmaceutical has been downgraded to Neutral [4][15]. Financial Projections - Financial forecasts for key companies indicate robust revenue growth, with Hansoh Pharmaceutical expected to achieve revenues of 14,499 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 18.3% from 2024 to 2026 [18][20]. - The report also highlights the expected increase in net profit margins, with Hansoh's net profit projected to reach 4,695 million RMB in 2025, up from 4,372 million RMB in 2024 [18][20].