Investment Rating - The report rates the cultural tourism infrastructure and operations industry as stable for 2025 and 2026, indicating a positive outlook for growth and development in the sector [1]. Core Insights - Since 2025, the domestic tourism market has transitioned from recovery to a healthy development phase, with high consumer willingness to travel, primarily focusing on local and nearby tourism, leading to increasingly rigid consumption demands [1][15]. - The international tourism market is entering a high-quality growth phase driven by policy releases and payment facilitation, with expectations for inbound tourism to become a new growth point for the industry [5][18]. - The industry is experiencing a transformation towards quality and immersive experiences, particularly in traditional scenic areas, which are facing capacity constraints and intensified competition [1][42]. - The hotel industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with ongoing brand and chain development, but still facing pressure from soft growth in room prices and rising operational costs [1][2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cultural tourism infrastructure and operations industry aims to meet public cultural and tourism demands, encompassing the development and provision of related material facilities and services [7]. - The industry is characterized by a deep integration of cultural and tourism resources, focusing on comprehensive services for tourists, including travel, accommodation, dining, and entertainment [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the tourism industry is a strategic pillar of the national economy, contributing over 10% to the national economic growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [10]. - The domestic tourism market is expected to continue supporting economic and social development, with a projected increase in domestic travel demand due to favorable policies and extended holiday periods [5][15]. Financial Performance - Revenue growth in the industry has slowed since 2025, but the operational resilience is expected to persist due to policy support and fundamental supply-demand dynamics [2][4]. - The financial structure of the industry shows a high reliance on debt financing, with a notable increase in overall debt levels and a rising proportion of rigid debt [4][36]. Future Outlook - For 2026, the report anticipates that policy dividends and new holiday regulations will further stimulate tourism consumption demand, with a steady development trend expected in the industry [5][16]. - The integration of AI and data processing technologies is expected to enhance tourism services, leading to a more refined transformation in the sector [5][30]. Sub-industry Analysis - The leisure facilities and cultural tourism infrastructure sector is characterized by high capital barriers and varying profitability across sub-sectors, with leisure facilities maintaining strong profitability due to resource scarcity [9][36]. - The report notes that the competitive landscape is dominated by state-owned enterprises, particularly in economically developed eastern regions, which exhibit significant scale advantages [2][4].

新世纪评级 能源行业 2025 年信用回顾与 2026 年展望 能源 稳定 能源行业 2025 年信用回顾与 2026 年展望 工商企业评级部 凌辉 摘要 近年我国持续推进绿色低碳转型，可再生能源消费占比增加显著，能源消 费结构朝着清洁化、低碳化方向稳步迈进。受国内经济增长动力转换影响， 以网络通信、新能源新材料、人工智能、生命科学等为代表的新质生产力 成为能源消费增长新驱动，我国能源消费总量仍保持了较高增速。2024 年 以来我国煤炭、原油及天然气产量继续增长，新型储能保持蓬勃发展。伴 随油气电网络不断织密，能源大范围输送能力提升，能源系统韧性不断增 强。近年能源投资增加明显，尤其在能源效率提升、可再生能源、输配电 网络、储能、煤电升级等领域。根据"十五五"规划建议，未来五年我国 将加快新型能源体系建设，清洁能源基地、储能、智能电网、微电网、分 布式能源、零碳工厂及园区等或成为政策重点支持方向。 主要能源品种方面：（煤炭）2025 年国内煤炭价格呈 N 型走势，中枢同比 下移。供应端产量小幅增长但前高后低，上半年产量高增致市场过剩，7 月超产专项核查后产量增速持续收窄，政策调控成为产量变化的核心主 导因素。 ...

新世纪评级 文化传媒行业 2025 年信用回顾与 2026 年展望 文化传媒 稳定 文化传媒行业 2025 年信用回顾与 2026 年展望 工商企业评级部 蒋卫 沈靓 摘要 文化传媒行业易受宏观经济景气程度影响。经过高速增长及调整后，近年， 随人工智能 (AI)、短视频、网络直播等业态的发展与交叉融合带动多个 细分行业协同发展，传媒产业总产值维持增长。（电影及院线）2025 年电 影票房回暖，观影人次增长，动画表现抢眼。院线票房格局大体稳定，影 院数和银幕数维持增长。（广告）2025 年我国广告市场在规模扩张、数字 转型、体验升级、品牌价值回归等多重维度呈现显著发展特征，整体保持 稳中有进、价值深耕的态势，成为拉动经济增长、推动产业升级的重要力 量。广告主以创新驱动增长，新品推广投入持续加码。广告营销行业"线 上线下双轮驱动"的趋势进一步深化。AI 技术应用于营销进入全面实践 阶段。（广播电视）互联网及新媒体发展等多重因素对传统有线收视业务 带来冲击，全国有线电视实际用户低位波动。广电持续推进 5G 业务。（出 版发行）我国图书出版量维持在高位，出版结构逐步优化，但报刊出版持 续下降。2025 年我国图书零售 ...

Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry is rated as stable for 2025 and 2026 [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry in China includes various sub-industries such as agriculture, food processing, and beverage manufacturing, closely linked to economic development, population structure, and consumer preferences. Despite ongoing economic pressures and weak consumer demand, the industry continues to grow, although revenue growth rates are declining and profitability is weakening [1][6] - The agricultural sector shows a steady increase in grain planting area and production, with major crops like rice, wheat, and corn maintaining a balance between supply and demand. However, some crop prices are under pressure due to supply-demand dynamics and international trade conditions [24][25] - The food manufacturing sector is experiencing stable growth, with overall profitability remaining flat. The industry is characterized by increasing fixed asset investments and a slight increase in total assets [52][53] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry has a total asset value of 8.42 trillion yuan at the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.59%. The industry’s revenue for 2024 is 9.07 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.20% year-on-year [7][11] - By the end of September 2025, the industry’s total assets increased to 8.61 trillion yuan, with a revenue of 6.71 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.75% [7][11] 2. Agricultural Sector - The agricultural sector's total output value reached 162,787.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%. The grain planting area for 2024 and 2025 is projected to be 11,931.9 million hectares and 11,940.9 million hectares, respectively [24][25] - Grain production is expected to increase, with total grain output for 2024 and 2025 estimated at 70.65 million tons and 71.49 million tons, respectively [27] 3. Feed Industry - The feed industry is experiencing growth in production, influenced by the recovery of the livestock sector. The total industrial feed production for 2024 is 31,503.1 million tons, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [45] - The feed prices are expected to remain low due to fluctuations in raw material prices and weak downstream demand [49] 4. Food Manufacturing - The food manufacturing sector continues to grow, with total assets reaching 2.41 trillion yuan by September 2025, reflecting a 4% increase year-on-year. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 is 1.63 trillion yuan, with a slight decrease in profit margins [52][53] 5. Livestock Industry - The livestock sector is under pressure, with pork prices gradually declining. The production of beef is increasing, while sheep meat production is decreasing due to weak demand [56][58] - The overall production of meat is expected to grow, with pork production for 2024 and 2025 estimated at 5,706.03 million tons and 5,938 million tons, respectively [58]

新世纪评级 建材行业 2025 年信用回顾与 2026 年展望 建材 水泥：（弱）稳定 建筑玻璃：负面 建材行业 2025 年信用回顾与 2026 年展望 工商企业评级部 杨亿 袁诗怡 摘要 建材行业所涉范围广泛，本文着重就水泥及建筑玻璃行业展开分析。建材 行业系典型的投资拉动型行业，2025 年前三季度下游房地产行业持续低 迷，投资降幅走阔，基建投资则因财政支出重心转移及重大项目投资不利 而增长放缓，建材需求缺乏实质性提振。（水泥）2025 年以来，主要因我 国房地产市场深度调整，加之交通运输和公共建筑等领域投资情况不济， 水泥需求持续收缩。水泥行业错峰生产常态化开展，执行力度有所加强， 2025 年前三季度我国水泥产量同比有所下降，但需求跌幅超预期下，价 格中枢下移。2025 年煤炭价格先跌后涨，前三季度成本压力减轻下，行 业盈利状况有所改善，第四季度成本转嫁压力虽有所加大，但估计行业全 年利润总额仍同比小幅增长。（建筑玻璃）2025 年前三季度，房地产竣工 规模同比降幅较大，建筑玻璃需求持续收缩。2025 年以来行业产能开工 率波动相对较大，玻璃供给量同比小幅收缩，但远不及需求降幅，玻璃库 存维持高位， ...

Investment Rating - The technology hardware and equipment industry is rated as stable for 2025 and 2026 [1] Core Insights - The technology hardware and equipment industry is experiencing a slow recovery driven by inventory replenishment cycles and AI technology, despite overall pressure from weak global economic growth since 2025. There is significant differentiation among sub-industries, with strong demand for data center equipment driven by computing power, while traditional telecom equipment shows sluggish growth [2][3] - The Chinese government has established a policy framework to support the industry, focusing on short-term growth stabilization, medium-term supply chain strengthening, and long-term innovation promotion, primarily through domestic substitution to overcome high-end equipment and material bottlenecks [2] - The industry is expected to benefit from the deepening of digital China initiatives and the industrialization of cutting-edge technologies like AI, entering a structurally growth-driven cycle. However, geopolitical disturbances and rapid technological iterations may lead to uneven recovery across the industry [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The electronic information manufacturing industry is closely tied to global economic conditions, showing signs of recovery since 2024 due to inventory replenishment and AI-driven demand. It is a core industry in China's economic structure transformation and upgrade [7][8] - In 2024, the added value of China's electronic information manufacturing industry grew by 11.8%, outperforming overall industrial and high-tech manufacturing growth rates [8] Financial Performance - Sample companies in the technology hardware and equipment industry reported positive revenue growth year-on-year in 2025, aligning with industry recovery trends. However, high R&D investments and asset impairment losses have pressured net profits, while EBITDA showed year-on-year growth, indicating profit resilience [3] - The debt scale and liability ratios of sample companies have increased, with a decline in the EBITDA coverage ratio for rigid debt, although interest coverage has improved due to lower financing costs [3] Sub-Industry Insights Communication Equipment - The communication equipment sector is experiencing growth opportunities driven by AI and industrial interconnectivity, with significant demand for data center equipment but slow growth in traditional telecom network equipment. The market is highly competitive and concentrated [24][27] - The deployment of high-speed optical modules and data center switches is expected to grow significantly, while traditional telecom equipment investments are declining as operators shift focus to computing power networks [28] Computers and Peripheral Devices - The global PC and server markets are stable, with Chinese manufacturers gaining market share due to domestic substitution. The AI PC segment is becoming a core growth driver, with AI PC shipments expected to increase significantly [37][38] - The global server market is experiencing robust growth driven by AI computing demand, with significant revenue increases expected in the coming years [42] Electronic Devices, Instruments, and Components - The electronic devices, instruments, and components sector is seeing overall recovery driven by AI innovation and domestic supply chain localization. Key areas of growth include computing power chips and advanced packaging [48][49] - The semiconductor industry is entering an upward trend, with significant sales growth expected in both global and Chinese markets [56]

行业研究报告 2025 年私募股权投资行业信用回顾与 2026 年展望 金融机构部 高飞 摘要：近年来，国内股权投资市场进入调整阶段，募资金额逐年下降，存续 规模由增转减。2025 年前三季度在二级市场活跃度持续提升的背景下，股权投 资市场投资案例数及金额较去年同期有所增长，退出市场活跃度亦有所回升。 近年来政府投资基金公司表现持续活跃。随着《国务院办公厅关于促进政府 投资基金高质量发展的指导意见》以及《关于加强政府投资基金布局规划和投向 指导的工作办法（试行）》和《政府投资基金投向评价管理办法（试行）》的先 后落地，政府投资基金公司将逐步转变为追求政策效益最大化，新设立的创业及 私募股权投资基金将更契合区域产业发展。因资产端表现较为固化，通常政府投 资基金公司的负债结构以长期债务为主。由于付息偿付较为刚性，年度间投退节 奏较为均衡，账面现金有规律的来源于投资完成清算后收益的公司，往往会拥有 更稳定的盈利表现。 展望 2026 年，募资和退出环节逐步回暖带动私募股权投资市场活跃回升。 政策引导进一步明确，政府投资基金将逐步优化整合，新设基金将围绕政策导向 进行投资。 行业研究报告 一、私募股权投资行业信用回顾 ...

新世纪评级 钢铁行业 2025 年信用回顾与 2026 年展望 钢铁行业 （弱）稳定 钢铁行业 2025 年信用回顾与 2026 年展望 工商企业评级部 吴晓丽 包璇 摘要 2025 年以来，钢铁行业竞争格局总体稳定，大规模产能置换已近尾声， 优质钢企主要通过兼并重组和购买产能指标扩大规模，炼钢产能总体平 稳，轧钢产能则随着先进产线投产有所扩充。在行业限产、非建筑用钢需 求回暖、铁矿石和焦煤价格下行缓解成本压力基础上，期内行业效益有所 改善。但是，行业深层供需矛盾仍未解决，下游有效需求依然不足，钢材 供给量仍过大，供给过剩问题依然突出。 2025 年，钢铁行业政策重点仍集中于绿色低碳和产能置换方面，其中 3 月发布的《全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业工作方 案》，标志着钢铁行业正式纳入全国碳交易市场，行业低碳转型进入强制 性约束阶段；10 月发布的《钢铁行业产能置换实施办法（征求意见稿）》 公开征求意见，在减量置换力度、重点区域产能限制、限期非同一企业产 能置换等提出更加严格要求，未来将对钢铁行业供给端产生一定影响。 样本钢企多为行业内大型企业，产能合计占到全国总产能的半数，市场地 位显著；部分 ...

行业研究报告 2025 年消费金融行业信用回顾与 2026 年展望 金融机构部 熊荣萍 李萍 摘要：2025 年前三季度，我国经济运行平稳，一系列提振消费政策持 续落地显效，推动消费市场稳步改善，对经济增长的贡献度同比有所回升。 然而，由于居民收入预期偏弱以及房地产价格调整引致的家庭资产缩水等 因素，居民消费信贷增速呈现持续回落态势。政策方面，2025 年以来，国 家出台了多项政策引导消费金融更好地发挥提振消费的作用。同时金融监 管总局发布的助贷新规明确要求消费金融公司对合作的平台运营机构及 增信服务机构实行名单制管理，并将增信成本等纳入综合融资成本且设定 上限，进一步强化机构自主风控能力，上述要求有助于推动消费金融公司 规范经营，并促进其产品综合定价有序下行。 2024 年，我国银行卡数量及银行卡应偿信贷余额保持增长，信用卡逾 期半年未偿信贷占比亦同比上升。2024 年，消费金融公司整体资产增速有 所回落，个别公司资产规模有所下降，消费金融公司盈利显著分化。从 12 家样本消费金融公司 2024 年业绩表现来看，样本消费金融公司不良及关 注类贷款合计占比多保持稳定，但考虑核销后的资产质量均有所下行，反 映出 ...

Economic Performance - Heilongjiang Province's GDP reached 1.65 trillion yuan in 2024, ranking 25th among all provinces in China, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, which is 1.8 percentage points lower than the national average[2] - The province's primary industry added value was 320.3 billion yuan, growing by 2.9%, while the secondary industry saw a decline of 0.2% to 414.7 billion yuan, and the tertiary industry grew by 4.7% to 912.6 billion yuan[2][22] - In the first three quarters of 2025, Heilongjiang's GDP was 1.15 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, still below the national growth rate of 5.2%[2] Fiscal Strength - Heilongjiang's general public budget revenue was 145.2 billion yuan in 2024, a 4.0% increase, ranking 25th among provinces, with a tax ratio of 60.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous year[5][35] - The province's budget self-sufficiency rate was only 22.5% in 2024, indicating a high reliance on upper-level subsidies, which accounted for 45.6% of total fiscal revenue[5][33] - In the first half of 2025, the general public budget revenue was 77.3 billion yuan, a 3.4% increase, with a self-sufficiency rate improving to 27.7%[5][44] Debt Situation - By the end of 2024, Heilongjiang's government debt reached 962.8 billion yuan, an increase of 113.0 billion yuan from the previous year, ranking 24th nationally[8] - The ratio of local government debt to general public budget revenue was 6.63 times, placing it 7th highest in the country, indicating a heavy debt burden relative to fiscal capacity[8] - As of September 2025, the total government debt had risen to 1.063 trillion yuan, maintaining its 24th position among provinces[8] Regional Economic Disparities - Harbin and Daqing are the leading cities, with GDPs of 601.6 billion yuan and 281.6 billion yuan respectively, together accounting for 53.6% of the province's total GDP[3][49] - In 2024, 10 cities experienced economic growth while 3 cities (Qitaihe, Hegang, and Jixi) faced declines, with Qitaihe's GDP dropping by 7.2%[3][50] - The economic structure is increasingly dominated by the tertiary sector, with 8 cities having over 50% of their GDP from services in 2024[3][53]