Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices fluctuated at a low level. In the short term, prices may oscillate narrowly around 70,000 yuan. It is recommended to pay attention to the rhythm of warehouse receipt changes and the downstream production schedule in May. Strategically, a bearish approach is still advised, and short - selling opportunities at the upper edge of the range can be considered [2][3][15] - Recently, there has been a marginal reduction in the supply side. Some salt factories will conduct maintenance from April to June, and the monthly average supply reduction in April and May is expected to be about 3,000 - 4,000 tons. The pressure of inventory accumulation may slow down, and there is no new downward driver for prices in the short term [2][3][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply - side shows marginal reduction, focus on the apparent demand in May - **Price situation**: Last week (04/14 - 04/18), lithium salt prices fluctuated at a low level. LC2505 closed at 70,300 yuan/ton, a 0.1% increase; LC2507 closed at 70,200 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decrease. SMM battery - grade (99.5%) and industrial - grade (99.2%) lithium carbonate spot average prices decreased by 0.2% and remained unchanged respectively. The prices of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The electric - industrial price difference narrowed slightly, and the price discount of battery - grade lithium hydroxide to battery - grade lithium carbonate widened slightly [2][12] - **Supply situation**: Some salt factories will conduct maintenance from April to June, with the SMM weekly lithium carbonate output decreasing by 574 tons to 17,400 tons. The mine - end quotation is still decreasing, and the Australian ore quotation may have difficulty finding effective support at $800 [2][14] - **Warehouse receipt situation**: Last week, the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 639 lots to 29,600 lots. The basis remained strong, and there was no profit from warehouse delivery, resulting in a significantly slower speed of warehouse receipt generation by holders. The LC2505 - LC2507 structure changed to back [3][14] 2. Weekly industry news review - **Production adjustment plan**: Zijin Mining will adjust its lithium project production plan according to the lithium price trend. The 3Q lithium salt lake in Argentina has basically met the production conditions but is still undergoing technical transformation. The Hunan Xiangyuan hard - rock lithium polymetallic ore is expected to be put into production by the end of 2025, and the corresponding smelting capacity may be matched in the first half of 2026 [16] - **Mining license transfer**: The mining license of the Bougouni lithium project has been transferred from Future Minerals to Kodal Mining's UK subsidiary. The project is close to completion, and the company expects to start exports in the next quarter [16] - **Company performance**: Zangge Mining's net profit in the first quarter of 2025 was 747 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 41.18%, while its operating income was 552 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.12% [17] - **Exchange notice**: From the trading time on May 6, 2025, the implementation method of the hedging transaction fee reduction of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will be adjusted [17] 3. Key high - frequency data monitoring of the industrial chain 3.1 Resource end: The spot quotation of lithium concentrate continues to decline - The FMB's latest lithium concentrate quotation dropped to $805/ton on Friday, and the Australian ore quotation may have difficulty finding support at $800 [2][14] 3.2 Lithium salt: The main contract approaches the 70,000 - yuan mark again - The closing prices of LC2505 and LC2507 fluctuated, and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also changed. The prices of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [2][12] 3.3 Downstream intermediates: Quotes decline - The prices of products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed a downward trend [32][39][37] 3.4 Terminal: The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China increased significantly year - on - year in March - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China in March increased significantly year - on - year, and the penetration rate also showed a certain trend [40][44][46]

[★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 贵 金 属 伦敦金涨 2.8%至 3327 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.32%，通胀 预期降至 2.24%，实际利率降至 2.08%，美元指数跌 0.87%至 99.2， 标普 500 指数跌 1.5%，人民币小跌，内外价差窄幅波动。 国际金价再度攀升创新高，国内资金通过多种途径做多黄金，沪 金期货、黄金 ETF 均明显吸引了资金流入，海外黄金 ETF 继续 增加，但 COMEX 黄金期货库存出现拐点，期货投机净多仓继续 回落。关税问题仍然是市场交易的核心逻辑，美国陆续与日本、 欧盟等国展开谈判，但进展较为缓慢，与中国的摩擦没有继续升 级，但双方还没有开始谈判，且即便是谈判也无法回到对等关税 加征前的状态，市场继续围绕去美元化的中长期逻辑展开交易。 经济数据显示美国居民在关税落地前增加消费，3 月美国零售销 售环比增长 1.4%，是 2023 年 1 月以来最大环比增速，同比增长 4.6%，汽车消费增长 5.3%是主要增长来源，在 13 个类别中有 11 个出现增长，关税明显施压消费者信心以及后续的消费能力，经 济下行风险增加。 周度报告-黄金 关税继续扰 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 检修增加矿石扰动， 氧化铝价格暂获支撑 [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 氧化铝：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 4 月 20 日 [Table_Summary] ★检修增加矿石扰动，氧化铝价格暂获支撑 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格处于下行通道，山西矿 58/5 的含税报 价 730 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。矿山资源整合政策持续 深化，部分矿山因资源整合、环保、安全等合规要求暂处停产状 态，国内矿山整体上并没有明显增量。下一轮国内矿石议价将大 概率继续下调，但下方空间可能有限。进口方面，几内亚矿（45/3） 的成交价格进一步回落至 86 美元/干吨。GIC 方面表示外商方面 确有经济纠纷，但与中方并无关系，GIC 方面表示问题会很快得 到解决，目前其矿山仍在维持正常开采，其发运方面有一座码头 被限制发运，但另一码头仍可维持正常作业。到货方面，期内新 到矿石 460.7 万吨，其中新到几内亚资源 352.3 万吨，澳大利亚 资源 105.6 万吨。几内 ...

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 关税压力延续，美元维持震荡 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好微升，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数下行，美 债收益率降至 4.32%。美元指数跌 0.87%至 99.23，非美货币多数 升值，离岸人民币跌 0.26%，欧元涨 0.95%，英镑涨 1.56%，日 元涨 0.95%，瑞郎跌 0.25%，比索、泰铢涨 3%，新西兰元、澳 元、兰特、雷亚尔涨超 1%，加元、林吉特收涨，韩元、卢比收 跌。金价涨 2.8%至 3327 美元/盎司，VIX 指数回落至 29.7，现货 商品指数收跌，布油涨 3.5%至 68 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 关税问题仍然是市场关注重点，日本、欧元区相继与美国展开 谈判，尚未取得实质性进展，中国与美国尚未展开谈判，而实 际贸易层面已经开始体现出巨额关税的影响，高频数据显示中 美贸易量明显下降，企业观望态度增加，关税的影响和进展是 股市核心影响因素。美联储主席鲍威尔讲话表明短期美联储并 没有救市的意愿，关税给通胀带来上行风险，美联储短期内降 息可能性下降。同时特朗普对美联储的口头干预增加，施压 ...

周度报告——股指期货 股市缩量轮动，等待流动性回归 [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：a关ry]税战不确定性较大，A 股快速缩量 ★下周观点：等待流动性回归 本周全球股市逐渐平淡，中国市场也经历了明显分化。一方面 是 A 股在国家队等资金托举下，连续上涨，但另一方面港股中 概股却经历持续回调。本周 A 股市场的典型特点在于监管部门 禁卖令导致的卖盘匮乏，市场流动性大幅收缩。4 月 18 日全 A 成交额已经跌破 1 万亿元。因而市场虽然快速轮动，依然在寻 求热点题材的突破，但最终未能形成一致性预期。后续监管放 松与流动性回归应该是阶段性主题。但本周国常会等会议依然 透露出稳预期、稳股市政策诉求。那么节奏将变得更难把握。 我们认为在贸易战依然不确定较大的阶段，叠加上市公司年报 季到来，沪深 300、上证 50 等股指将具有相对优势。 ★风险提示： 美国对华贸易战，海外地缘风险加剧。 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 股指：震荡 | | | 王培丞 | | 高级分析师（股指） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： 2025 年 日 | 04 月 | ...

周度报告-国债期货 上涨行情未结束，关注政策预期变化 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货高位震荡，长端强于短端 国 债 期 货 本周（04.14-04.20）国债期货高位震荡，长端强于短端。周一， 受 3 月金融数据超预期等因素影响，国债期货低开，午后股市 走软，长端国债品种小幅拉升。周二，消息面相对平静，资金 面虽然均衡但资金利率并未进一步下行，国债期货窄幅震荡、 小幅走弱。周三，3 月经济数据普遍超市场预期，利空落地后国 债期货小幅拉升；午间市场担忧供给压力短暂调整，午后资金 面均衡偏松，国债期货小幅上涨。周四，市场较为担忧供给压 力及地产政策发力，国债期货震荡下跌。周五，市场预期下周 一 LPR 会下调，长端品种震荡走强，但短端品种依旧偏弱运 行。截至 4 月 18 日收盘，两年、五年、十年和三十年期国债期 货主连合约结算价分别为 102.436、106.225、109.000 和 119.720 元，分别较上周末变动-0.220、-0.185、+0.015 和+0.060 元。 ★上涨行情未结束，关注政策预期变化 双降预期未被证伪之前，上涨行情没有结束，但政策预期变化 较快，市场走强 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美联储威廉姆斯认为暂无迫切必要调整货币 政策 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-18 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行开展了 2455 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 宽货币预期被证伪之前，国债上涨的行情不会结束。可适度关 注调整后的买入机会。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美联储威廉姆斯认为暂无迫切必要调整货币政策 美国三大股指盘中震荡涨跌不一，反弹乏力，经济数据走弱预 计仍将压制美股表现。 综 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 合 特朗普批评鲍威尔玩弄政治 放话称总统有权解职美联储主席 晨 报 特朗普和鲍威尔之间的矛盾白热化，特朗普对于鲍威尔迟迟不 降息明显不满，这可能会演变成更加剧烈的冲突，市场风险偏 好走低。 农产品（生猪） 牧原股份官宣将赴港上市 现货价格延续震荡走势，但始终未形成快速下跌趋势，市场出 栏不及预期。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 一季度中国钢筋产量 4810.7 万吨，同比降 2.9% 本周钢联五大品种去库加速，螺纹热卷库存去化均尚可，表需 有较为明显回升。但由于 5 月份之后需求端的隐患，市场对短期 需求的韧性关注度下降，情绪仍偏谨慎。 有色金属（工业硅） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides strategies for different agricultural product sectors, including unilateral and arbitrage strategies, and analyzes the market conditions and trends of various agricultural products such as oils, corn, and livestock [1][19][21]. - It also ranks the strength of different agricultural product varieties in the short - medium and long - term and gives corresponding long - short allocation suggestions [3][48]. - The trade war between China and the US has an impact on the agricultural product market, affecting the supply, demand, and price of products such as beans, cotton, and livestock [48][59]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1上期策略回顾 - **豆粕菜粕**: The recommended "M - RM 09 narrowing" and "RM 5 - 9 reverse spread" strategies performed poorly. The M - RM 09 spread widened from 201 on March 18 to 393 on April 15, and the RM 5 - 9 spread widened from - 128 to - 89 [11]. - **白糖**: The suggestion to short Zhengzhou sugar at high prices did not work well. The domestic market was stronger than expected, and the 5 - month contract triggered the stop - loss level [12]. - **生猪**: The strategy of shorting the LH5 contract after over - rising provided good profit - taking opportunities, and the focus has now shifted to the 09 contract [12]. - **玉米**: The recommendation of buying the corn 07 contract at low prices did not see the second upward repair. The contract oscillated around 2300 yuan/ton due to traders' lack of confidence [13]. - **油脂**: The shorting opportunity of P2509 gave good profit - taking points, and the P59 positive spread and YP09 widening strategies did not show a strong trend [14]. - **Strength - weakness allocation strategy**: The previous long - short allocation strategy showed a 2.6% loss, but the approaching delivery of the 5 - month contract affected the strategy performance tracking [15]. 3.2本期策略推荐 3.2.1单边策略 - **棕榈油**: Bearish in 1 - 2 months. Suggest shorting the 9 - month contract (P2509) with a target profit of 7500 yuan and a stop - loss of 8300 yuan [19]. - **豆油**: Bullish over 3 months. Recommend going long on the 1 - month contract (Y2601) with a first target profit of 8000 yuan and a stop - loss of 7400 yuan [19]. - **玉米**: Bullish in 1 - 3 months. Pay attention to the 07 contract's long - buying opportunity at low prices, with a target profit of 2450 - 2500 yuan and a stop - loss of 2250 - 2270 yuan [19]. - **生猪**: Bearish in 1 - 2 months. Look for shorting opportunities in the 9 - month contract after over - rising, with a target profit of 14100 - 14200 yuan and a stop - loss of 14800 - 14900 yuan [20]. 3.2.2套利策略 - **Y2509 - Y2601**: Recommend a reverse spread strategy based on the expectation of more soybean arrivals in the near - term and fewer in the long - term. The risk includes lower - than - expected soybean arrivals in the third quarter and changes in US bio - fuel policies [21]. 3.2.3推荐策略逻辑详述及相关指标跟踪 - **油脂板块**: Short - term shorting opportunities for P2509 and long - term long - buying opportunities for Y2601. The key indicators include the accumulation of Malaysian palm oil inventory and the high POGO spread [22][25][31]. - **玉米板块**: Continue to recommend long - buying the corn 07 contract at low prices. Pay attention to Northeast inventory changes, North China drought, and wheat storage rumors. Key indicators include the corn inventory - consumption ratio of deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises' corn inventory days [32][33]. - **养殖板块**: Look for shorting opportunities in the LH 7 and 9 contracts after over - rising. The current inventory situation continues to drive the near - strong and far - weak pattern, and the end of the second quarter is an important release point for inventory [37][39]. 3.3农产品品种间强弱排序 3.3.1农产品各主要品种观点 - **豆粕 (M)**: In the short - term, the price increase is limited. In the long - term, if the import of US soybeans is excluded or the US yield is lower than expected, the price may rise [48]. - **菜粕 (RM)**: Unilateral follow - up with bean粕. Focus on policy changes, especially the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports [48]. - **棕榈油 (P)**: In the short - term, the price is supported by replenishment, but in the long - term, it is affected by the low demand for Indonesian biodiesel [48]. - **豆油 (Y)**: In the near - term, the price is under pressure, but in the long - term, it is bullish due to potential supply shortages [48]. - **菜油 (OI)**: Expected to maintain a volatile and bullish trend due to the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed and the drought in European rapeseed production areas [48]. - **Corn (C, CS)**: In the short - term, look for catalysts; in the long - term, if there is no large - scale substitution, the gap will be exposed in mid - to - late July [48]. - **Eggs (JD)**: In the second quarter, the price is under pressure due to increased supply and reduced inventory demand. In the third quarter, the supply and demand situation needs further evaluation [49]. - **Pigs (LH)**: In the long - term, the price is expected to be weak in the first half of 2025 and stronger in the second half, with a possible price turning point at the end of the year [49]. - **Sugar (SR)**: In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile and bearish; in the long - term, it is expected to be in a bear market, but affected by weather conditions [50]. - **Cotton (CF)**: In the second quarter, the market is not optimistic; in the second half of the year, it is cautiously bullish, but the market volatility is high [50]. 3.3.2主要指标跟踪 - **资金面动态**: From March 14 to April 14, 2025, the agricultural product futures sector had a net capital outflow. Beans, corn, and other varieties had the highest capital inflows, while oils and rubber had significant outflows [51]. - **各品种基差及基差率 (2025年4月14日)**: The report provides the basis and basis rate data for various agricultural product varieties [54]. - **农产品期货强弱排序及多空配置策略**: Short - medium - term: Long bean粕, rapeseed oil, and corn; short palm oil and pigs. Long - term: Look for opportunities to long bean粕 at low prices and short sugar and palm oil at high prices [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in March continued to improve, with the transformation of old and new growth drivers accelerating. However, there are increasing challenges in the future, and the economic data is expected to face downward pressure. The Treasury bond futures are in a high - level oscillation, waiting for the implementation of easing policies [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Economic Data Continued to Improve, but Future Pressure Will Increase - **March Data Improvement and Reasons**: In March, the economic data mostly improved compared to the previous values. Policy implementation was the core reason for the improvement, while early Spring Festival and export rush were secondary factors. For example, the year - on - year industrial added - value growth in March unexpectedly rebounded to 7.7% due to equipment updates, export rush, and a slightly lower base. The manufacturing investment growth rate from January to March was 9.1%, and the social retail sales growth rate rose from 4.0% to 5.9%. The infrastructure cumulative growth rate increased from 10% to 11.5%, and the decline in real - estate - related indicators narrowed, but the real - estate market still faced challenges [1][9][12] - **Future Challenges**: There are significant challenges in the future. Trade conflicts are escalating, which will lead to a high probability of weakening export growth and drag down domestic demand. Some inherent economic problems, such as weak endogenous investment and financing momentum in the private sector, supply exceeding demand, and low price levels, remain unsolved. The sustainability of some policies is also questionable [2][13] - **Policy Expectations**: There are expected to be four rounds of policies. The first round stabilized the capital market, the second was related to the leader's visit to Southeast Asia. The Politburo meeting at the end of April is expected to introduce the third round of policies, mainly including industrial and monetary policies. From mid - year to Q3, the fourth round of policies may be launched, with the central bank potentially cutting interest rates first, and the possibility of increasing the fiscal deficit rate if external demand weakens significantly [14] 1.1 Policy Promotes Supply - Demand Cycle, and New Economy Develops Rapidly - **Supply - Side Changes**: Policy implementation was the core reason for the improvement in March data. The 1 - 3 month cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.5%, with a monthly growth rate of 7.7% in March. The growth rates of mining, manufacturing, and power industries all changed compared to the previous values. High - tech manufacturing showed rapid growth, while the growth rate of some upstream industries declined, indicating an accelerating transformation of old and new growth drivers [15][18][19] - **Demand - Side Changes**: Policy also drove demand - side changes. The 1 - 3 month cumulative growth rate of manufacturing investment was 9.1%, with equipment updates significantly driving investment. The social retail sales growth rate in March was 5.9%, and factors such as the "trade - in" policy, accelerated fiscal expenditure, and increased resident income contributed to the improvement [21] 1.2 Infrastructure Investment Boosts Growth, and Real Estate Tends to Stop Declining - **Infrastructure Investment**: The government emphasized both risk prevention and development, with front - loaded fiscal efforts. The 1 - 3 month cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment was 11.5%, and the net financing scale of government bonds in Q1 was significantly higher than in previous years. Different infrastructure sectors showed different growth trends [26][27] - **Real Estate Market**: With the continuous implementation of real - estate policies, the decline in real - estate - related indicators narrowed, and there were positive changes in sales, housing prices, and completion rates. However, problems such as insufficient willingness of residents to increase leverage and slow policy implementation still existed, and it was difficult to achieve a comprehensive recovery in the short term [31][32] 1.3 Economic Development Faces Many Challenges, and Future Data May Weaken - **External Challenges**: Trade conflicts are intensifying, and high tariffs will have a significant impact on exports after the export rush in Q2 fades. This will affect employment, investment, and inflation [33] - **Internal Problems**: China's inherent economic problems, such as weak endogenous investment and financing momentum in the private sector and a large supply - demand gap, remain unsolved. The capacity utilization rate in Q1 decreased, and it is difficult to see significant results in optimizing supply and stimulating demand in the short term [36] - **Policy Sustainability**: The sustainability of some policies is questionable. For the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of some high - tech industries is low, and for the demand side, some subsidy policies may have diminishing marginal utility [37] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Oscillate at High Levels, Waiting for Easing to Materialize - **Market Outlook**: Before the expectation of double - rate cuts is falsified, the market is in a bullish trend, but the upward pace will be bumpy. Treasury bond futures prices are approaching previous highs and will oscillate at high levels before the implementation of easing policies. After the implementation of easing policies, prices are expected to break through [38] - **Strategies**: Configuration - oriented investors can hold long positions and wait for easing. Traders can buy on dips. Attention can be paid to strategies such as steepening the yield curve when it is flat, positive carry strategies for short - term varieties, and narrowing the inter - delivery spread of short - term varieties [3][40]

东证衍生品研究院 黑色与航运部 兰淅 从业资格号：F03086543 投资咨询号：Z0016590 数据点评 重点集装箱港口及关键枢纽监测20250417 • | 港 口 | 地 区 | 最新 | 一 期 | | 月环比 | | 年同比 | | 月平均 | 去年同期 | 单 位 | 450 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 洋山 | 中国 | 45 . | 4 | 8 . | 5 | 17 | 4 . | 36 | 9 . | 27 9 . | 小时 | 400 | | 宁波 | 中国 | 52 . | 1 | 7 . | 0 | 0 - | 3 . | 45 | 0 . | 52 3 . | 小时 | | | 新加坡 | 东南亚 | 32 . | 5 | 1 - | 1 . | 2 - | 1 . | 33 | 6 . | 34 5 . | 小时 | 350 | | 巴生 | 东南亚 | 50 . | 3 | 6 - | 6 . | 1 - | 5 . | 56 | 9 . ...