伦敦金涨 4.3%至 4219 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率降至 4%，通胀 预期 2.24%，实际利率下行至 1.76%，美元指数跌 0.72%至 99.4，标 普 500 指数涨 3.73%，人民币升值，沪金折价扩大。 贵 金 属 金价再度转涨，表现偏强，一方面是对美联储降息预期的快速提 升，一方面是白银出现现货紧张再度炒作逼空推动了整个贵金属 板块的上涨。美联储多位官员发表讲话，基调从此前的鹰派转为 鸽派，12 月降息概率已经回升至 80%以上，美联储理事米兰再度 呼吁应该大幅降息，美联储理事沃勒则担忧就业市场而倾向于 12 月继续降息，哈塞特作为美联储下届主席的有力人选也表态鸽派 支持进一步降息，市场对于美联储后续的利率路径预期持续宽松。 美元指数高位回落，大宗商品整体反弹。 美国 9 月零售销售环比增加 0.2%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.6%，消费 动能有所放缓，黑五网上销售额大幅增加，但价格上涨幅度大于 销售量的增加，通胀压力有所增加，9 月耐用品订单环比增加 0.5%，预期 0.3%，前值 3%，9 月 PPI 同比 2.7%、环比 0.3%符合 预期，核心 PPI 同比 2.6%、环比 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿价持稳， 氧化铝供应继续修复 氧化铝：上周氧化铝现货价格小幅下行。阿拉丁（ALD）北方 综合价格在 2800-2850 元/吨，较上周持平；国产加权指数 2831.9 元/吨，较上周下跌 2 元/吨。进口氧化铝港口报价在 2820-2880 元/吨，较上周持平。铝厂库存高位、长单执行充足，现货成交 有限。进口方面，东澳成交 3 万吨氧化铝 FOB 311.50 美元/吨， 折合人民币 2760 元/吨左右，进口窗口打开。截止当周，国内氧 化铝完全成本为 2817 元/吨，实时利润为 45 元/吨。供应方面， 运行产能前期因检修、环保和串线等因素下降，近两周在检修结 束后，开始再度回升。全国氧化铝建成产能 11462 万吨，运行 9670 万吨，较上周增 60 万吨，开工率 84.4%。 ★风险提示 几内亚矿石供给出现扰动。 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | 孙伟东 | 首席分析师(有色金属) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 11 月 30 日 | 从业资格号： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [4] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are not strongly driven, and the balance sheet may be less optimistic than previously expected due to lower - than - expected exports and the impact of the "anti - involution" in the silicone industry. The short - term industrial silicon futures price may oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, although the fundamentals have weakened significantly, leading silicon material companies are determined to maintain prices, resulting in a high virtual - to - real ratio of the PS2601 contract. Short - term polysilicon volatility has increased, and investors are advised to operate with caution [3][15][17] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon closed at 9,130 yuan/ton this week, up 170 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained flat at 9,550 yuan/ton, while the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon closed at 56,425 yuan/ton, up 3,065 yuan/ton from last week. The average transaction price of N - type re - feeding material of polysilicon remained flat at 53,200 yuan/ton [9][10] 2. November Centralized Cancellations, Focus on New Warehouse Receipt Registrations - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price of industrial silicon fluctuated this week. In December, the total number of open furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan may drop below 20. The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.2 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.18 million tons. Due to weaker - than - expected organic silicon and export demand, it is difficult to reduce inventory from December to the first quarter of next year. Northern silicon factories conduct hedging when the price rises, and downstream buyers purchase based on rigid demand [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon rose slightly this week. The overall enterprise operating rate was 75.43%, with a weekly output of 49,900 tons, up 1.42% from the previous week, and inventory of 44,700 tons, up 2.05%. Organic silicon monomer factories announced a production cut plan on December 1, but the action is not obvious yet. The market is determined to maintain prices, but demand is weak [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated this week. The prices of dense re - feeding material and granular material of leading manufacturers remained above 51 - 53 yuan/kg and 50 - 51 yuan/kg respectively. The low - price range showed signs of loosening. The planned production in December is expected to be 115,000 tons. As of November 30, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 281,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous week. It is difficult for the spot price to rise against the trend [12] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers dropped significantly this week. The prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers fell to 1.20/1.25/1.55 yuan/piece. The average price of each size has dropped to or below the cash cost. Production cuts are obvious, and the planned production in December is expected to be 45GW. As of November 27, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 19.5GW, up 0.78GW from the previous week [13] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells continued to decline this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells dropped to 0.285, 0.275, and 0.285 yuan/watt respectively. As of November 24, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 12.05GW, up 1.84GW from the previous week. Although there are production cut plans in December, it is difficult to completely improve the supply - demand situation [13] - **Components**: The price of components remained basically stable this week. The mainstream delivery price of centralized components was 0.64 - 0.70 yuan/watt, and that of distributed projects for large customers was 0.66 - 0.70 yuan/watt. Some large - scale procurement projects showed demand for high - power components above 700W, with quotes ranging from 0.72 - 0.75 yuan/watt. Demand has declined significantly, and new orders are scarce. The planned production in December may drop significantly, and the domestic planned production is only 37GW. As of November 10, the finished product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 30.2GW, down 0.1GW from the previous week [14] 3. Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: The short - term industrial silicon futures price may oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Investors can focus on range - trading opportunities [3][15] - **Polysilicon**: Due to increased short - term volatility, investors are advised to operate with caution [3][17] 4. Hot News - A polysilicon plant with an annual output of 30,000 tons will be built in Morocco. From January to October, the cumulative installed solar power generation capacity in China was 1.14 billion kilowatts, with a year - on - year increase of 43.8%. The first - phase project of Inner Mongolia Xingfa's industrial silicon project was successfully capped [18] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, and inventory data [20][30][40]

[Table_Rank] 走势评级： 碳酸锂：震荡 周度报告—碳酸锂 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Summary] ★大厂复产临近，需求成色有待验证 大厂复产临近，需求成色有待验证 上周（11/24-11/28）锂盐价格呈震荡偏强走势。LC2512 收盘价 环比+4.0%至 9.46 万元/吨，LC2601 收盘价环比+4.0%至 9.46 万 元/吨；SMM 电池级及工业级碳酸锂现货均价环比+1.6%至 9.38、 9.13 万元/吨。氢氧化锂价格跟随上行，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电 池级氢氧化锂均价环比分别+1.0%、+0.9%至 8.21、8.69 万元/吨。 电工价差环比+50 元/吨至 2,450 元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池 级碳酸锂价格贴水环比走阔 650 元至 1.2 万元/吨。 上周盘面延续偏强运行，限仓政策使得主力合约加速换月至 05 合约。消息面上，周四晚自然资源部发布枧下窝采矿权变更受理 通知书，据自然资源部官网披露预计受理申请之日起 20 个工作 日内作出登记决定，符合规定的将颁发不动产权证书（采矿权）， 预计复产行动将在 12 月中旬左右启动，与我们此 ...

周度报告——股指期货 市场波动降低，仍需宏观加码 本周全球股市走修复逻辑，主要国家指数均涨超 2%。中国股市 也迎来修复。但行情有三方面超预期，一是修复力度偏弱，上 证指数周度涨幅仅 1.4%，单周未能收涨与 3900 点以上；二是市 场缩量，周五市场成交跌破 18000 亿元，抄底博弈的力量较弱； 三是微盘股涨幅较大，融资余额放量，表明部分投机性资金仍 较为活跃。总体来看，近期地缘因素仍具有较大不确定性，短 期内市场观望情绪较重也属于正常变化，本轮行情是流动性推 动的牛市，在流动性退坡之际，股指或将维持窄幅震荡。建议 关注 12 月即将召开的重磅会议。 ★风险提示： 经济基本面修复不及预期，海外地缘风险加剧。 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 股指：震荡 | 王培丞 高级分析师（股指） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 30 日 | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： F03093911 [Table_Analyser] | | [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：aAry股] 修复偏弱 | 投资咨询号： Z0017305 | | 本周（11/24-11 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Dollar: Volatile [5] Core Viewpoints - Market risk appetite has rebounded, most stock markets have bounced back, and most bond yields have declined. The yield of US Treasuries has dropped to 4.01%. The US dollar index has fallen by 0.72% to 99.46, and all non-US currencies have rebounded. Gold prices have risen by 4.3% to $4,239 per ounce, the VIX index has dropped to 16.35, and the spot commodity index has closed higher. Brent crude oil has risen by 3.2% to $64.35 per barrel [1][5][9]. - Multiple Fed officials have made dovish remarks, causing the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut to quickly rise to 80%. The market's concern about the AI bubble has decreased. US retail sales in September were below expectations, consumer momentum has slowed down, and inflation pressure has increased. Although the initial jobless claims for the week were lower than expected and the previous value, the weakening trend in the labor market remains unchanged. The lack of key inflation and employment data before the Fed's December interest rate meeting will increase market volatility [2][11]. - The short - term market will continue to be in a state of liquidity repair, with the US dollar index declining, risk assets rising, and safe - haven assets recovering [34]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Global Market Overview - Market risk appetite has rebounded, most stock markets have bounced back, and most bond yields have declined. The yield of US Treasuries has dropped to 4.01%. The US dollar index has fallen by 0.72% to 99.46, non - US currencies have generally appreciated, gold prices have risen by 4.3% to $4,239 per ounce, the VIX index has dropped to 16.35, the spot commodity index has closed higher, and Brent crude oil has risen by 3.2% to $64.35 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets have mostly risen, with US and Chinese A - share markets rebounding. The S&P 500 has risen by 3.73%, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 1.4%, the Hang Seng Index has risen by 2.53%, and the Nikkei 225 Index has risen by 3.35%. Fed officials' dovish remarks and Google's competition with NVIDIA in the AI field have boosted the stock market. However, the weakening economic fundamentals in China and the increasing willingness of funds to take profits at the end of the year limit the rebound of the stock market [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields have mostly declined, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping to 4.01%. The expectation of an interest rate cut has risen, but the downward space for long - term bond yields is limited due to future inflation pressure. The Japanese government's fiscal stimulus plan has pushed up the yield of Japanese government bonds. The yield of China's 10 - year Treasury bonds has risen slightly, and the inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread has narrowed [14][18][20] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index has fallen by 0.72% to 99.46, and all non - US currencies have rebounded. The offshore RMB has risen by 0.48%, the euro has risen by 0.74%, the pound has risen by 1.02%, and other non - US currencies have also shown varying degrees of appreciation [23][24][26] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold has risen by 4.3% to $4,239 per ounce due to the increased expectation of an interest rate cut and concerns about a short squeeze in silver. Brent crude oil has risen by 3.2% to $64.35 per barrel. The supply - demand pattern of oil prices remains weak, but concerns about supply and the decline of the US dollar have led to an increase in the commodity spot index [27][29] 3. Hotspot Tracking - US retail data in September were below expectations, and the slowdown in retail growth indicates weakening consumer momentum and rising downward pressure on the real economy. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut has reversed, and the short - term market is in a state of liquidity repair [30][33][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: US November ISM Manufacturing PMI; Tuesday: Eurozone November CPI; Wednesday: US November ADP Employment and November ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI; Thursday: US initial jobless claims for the week and November Challenger Job Cuts; Friday: US December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index [35]

周度报告-国债期货 债市短暂修复，但调整压力并未解除 [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 国债：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货震荡转弱 本周（11.24-11.30）国债期货震荡转弱。周一，受 12 月美联储 降息预期升温影响，股指高开，但随即走弱；期债低开随即拉 升，全天偏强运行。尾盘市场预期稳地产政策即将发力，国债 利率小幅上行。周二，上午股市表现较强，国债期货震荡偏 弱，午后股市虽然转弱，但债市较为担忧稳增长政策公布、基 金费率新规落地，国债期货跌幅扩大。周三，国债期货大幅下 跌。上午 CPO 板块大幅上涨，下午市场担忧央行买债规模不及 预期，机构赎回规模也较大，利率上行，曲线走陡。周四，市 场消息面平静，大跌后市场情绪有所企稳，但机构做多动力也 不强，各品种窄幅震荡。周五，早盘股市走弱，国债期货拉 升，但债市多头力量并不强，随着股市拉升，国债期货回吐涨 幅。截至 11 月 28 日收盘，两年、五年、十年和三十年期国债 期货 2603 合约结算价分别为 102.378、105.735、107.915 和 114.460 元，分别 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - A-share market experienced a volume - shrinking adjustment with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.29% to 3875.26 points, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.44%. The daily trading volume was 1.72 trillion yuan, down from 1.8 trillion yuan the previous day. In October, the revenue and profit growth rates of industrial enterprises turned negative, with quantity dropping, price stabilizing, and profit margins shrinking [14][15]. - The U.S. stock market was closed for Thanksgiving, and the stock index futures closed flat with light trading. Putin's statement on the peace plan had limited impact on the U.S. stock market [2]. - After a sharp decline in the bond market, the odds of going long improved, and there would be a repair, but the adjustment pressure still existed after the rebound [3]. - For agricultural products like soybeans, the supply - demand situation changed little, with Brazil's expected new - crop output hitting a record high. The market focused on U.S. soybean export sales [4]. - In the black metal sector, the overall inventory data of steel was okay, but the slow destocking of coils suppressed steel prices. Steel prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - For energy - chemical products such as float glass, the inventory of float glass manufacturers decreased slightly this week, and the futures price rose due to rumors of production line shutdowns [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (U.S. Stock Index Futures) - Putin publicly discussed the peace plan but there was no final solution. The U.S. stock market was closed for Thanksgiving, and the market trading was light with the stock index futures closing flat. The progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations had limited impact on the U.S. stock market. It was recommended to maintain a bullish view overall and observe if the 50 - day moving average could provide strong support [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council executive meeting deployed the promotion of provincial - level overall planning of basic medical insurance. A - shares had a volume - shrinking adjustment. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. It was recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indexes [13][14][15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. The central bank conducted a 3564 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 564 billion yuan. After a sharp decline, the bond market might have a short - term repair, but it was still bearish overall [17][18]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA would release the weekly export sales report. The market expected U.S. soybean export sales to increase by 60 - 200 million tons. Brazil's soybean production in the 25/26 season was expected to reach a record 178 million tons. It was recommended to view the futures prices of both domestic and foreign markets with a range - bound perspective and focus on China's soybean purchases and South American weather [19][20]. 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On November 27, the price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia was weak. After the end of winter stockpiling, coal prices were driven by actual supply and demand. It was recommended to pay attention to whether the daily consumption would turn positive after December to support coal prices [21]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Canadian mining company was advancing iron ore projects in Ukraine and Canada. Iron ore prices continued to fluctuate widely. With port inventories piling up and demand seasonally declining, iron ore was expected to maintain a range - bound trend [22]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The spot market of port coke fluctuated. For coking coal, supply was increasing while iron - making output decreased slightly. For coke, the market expectation weakened due to falling coking coal prices. It was recommended to focus on downstream restocking [23][24]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The开机 rate of corn starch increased, and inventory continued to decline significantly. It was recommended that starch would likely remain strong in the short term, and mid - short - term spread trading should be range - bound, while it might strengthen in the long - term [24][25]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of major processing enterprises continued to decline counter - seasonally. The spot price was strong, and the futures price was oscillating at a high level. The 01 contract was expected to be difficult to fall, and it was not recommended to short the 03 and 05 contracts against the trend [26]. 2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The production schedule of major white - goods in December 2025 decreased. The steel inventory data was okay, but the slow destocking of coils suppressed steel prices. It was recommended to view steel prices with a range - bound perspective [27][28][29][30]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A 30,000 - ton polysilicon plant would be built in Morocco. The spot price of polysilicon was mainly determined by the game between policy and fundamentals. It was recommended that the futures main contract might trade between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - bound trading opportunities [31][32][34]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The first - phase project of an industrial silicon project in Inner Mongolia reached an important milestone. The supply and demand situation of industrial silicon deteriorated, and it was recommended that the short - term futures price might oscillate between 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton [35][36]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead cash - 3 - month spread was at a discount. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased. It was recommended that short - position holders should look for opportunities to stop losses on dips, and it was better to wait and see for arbitrage and cross - border trading [37][38]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - 3 - month spread was at a premium. The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased. It was recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, hold long - short spread positions for spread trading, and exit cross - border arbitrage positions in a timely manner [39][40][41]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia simplified the RKAB approval process. A project's production was expected to decline. The nickel market was still in surplus, but the current futures price was below the cost. It was recommended that previous short - position holders could gradually stop losses and consider going long at low prices [42][43][44]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Ghana made progress. The production of domestic lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory also decreased. It was not recommended to chase long positions, and short positions could be lightly established on the right - hand side if production resumed and demand declined in the off - season. A long - position strategy was recommended in the long - term [45][46]. 2.14 Energy - Chemical Products (Natural Gas) - U.S. natural gas inventory decreased more than expected, but further price increases were difficult due to warm - weather forecasts and weak overseas demand. NYMEX natural gas still faced downward pressure [47][48]. 2.15 Energy - Chemical Products (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA increased by 1.02% on November 27. The impact of the carry - over policy might be more emotional than real. It was recommended to wait and see [49][50][51]. 2.16 Energy - Chemical Products (Styrene) - The weekly production and capacity utilization of styrene decreased. The trading focus shifted back to domestic supply and demand. The inventory in East China was expected to increase, and it was recommended to pay attention to the implementation of pure - benzene maintenance plans and treat it as range - bound in the short term [51][52][53]. 2.17 Energy - Chemical Products (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased due to weak demand. The supply was abundant, and inventory continued to accumulate. The short - term futures price was expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to whether supply would shrink due to profit compression [54][55][56]. 2.18 Energy - Chemical Products (PVC) - The price of PVC powder had a narrow - range adjustment. The supply was expected to increase, and demand was suppressed by the weak real - estate market. It was recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies [57][58][59]. 2.19 Energy - Chemical Products (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased this week. The supply decreased slightly, and demand increased. In the short term, the fundamentals of soda ash had some support, but it was recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - term and short far - month contracts on rallies [60][61][62]. 2.20 Energy - Chemical Products (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers decreased slightly this week. The futures price rose due to rumors of production line shutdowns. Attention should be paid to the risk of short - covering rebounds caused by news - related disturbances [63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity, but consumer spending has declined, and the downward pressure on the economic fundamentals persists, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index. The A-share market remains in a state of shrinking trading volume, and the market may enter a period of wait - and - see due to the marginal decline in liquidity. The bond market may experience a slight recovery after a significant decline, but it remains weak in the near term. Steel prices are oscillating, with limited upward drivers. Nickel investors can consider closing short positions and potentially going long. Oil prices have rebounded despite an increase in EIA crude inventories [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed's Beige Book indicates that tariffs increase corporate financial pressure. Gold prices oscillated and closed higher. The market's risk appetite remained high, and the expectation of a December interest - rate cut by the Fed was further strengthened. Gold is expected to continue its oscillating trend in the short term [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax increase. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased. The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity but a decline in consumer spending. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [13][14][15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market showed shrinking trading volume and divergence. Six departments issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand. The market may enter a wait - and - see period due to the marginal decline in liquidity. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [17][18][19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 216,000. The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity. US economic data indicates that the economy remains resilient, and the market risk appetite has improved. It is advisable to maintain a bullish view overall and observe if the 50 - day moving average can provide strong support [20][21][22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 213.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 9.72 billion yuan. If the new regulations on fund fees are implemented in the short term, the bond market may rebound significantly. Otherwise, the bond market may experience a slight recovery after a significant decline but will remain weak. It is recommended to expect a short - term recovery but remain bearish on the market [24][25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOA data shows a 3.24% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production from November 1 - 20. The supply pressure on palm oil has eased, and the price has stabilized. It is advisable to wait for subsequent data [27]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in December is about 9.048 million tons, and the estimated soybean crushing volume in December is 9.569 million tons. The futures prices of soybeans are expected to remain oscillating. It is necessary to continue to monitor China's purchase of US soybeans and the weather in South American producing areas [28][29][30][31]. 2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market is weakening. The supply of coking coal is increasing, while the demand for coke from steel mills is seasonally declining. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream restocking situation [32][33]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In mid - November, the daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 1.943 million tons. Steel prices are oscillating. The recent increase in steel prices is related to policy expectations and cost support, but the demand does not support a significant increase. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [33][35][36]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Three cold air masses will affect China. After the completion of winter stockpiling, coal prices are driven by actual supply and demand. It is necessary to monitor whether the daily coal consumption turns positive in December to support coal prices at a seasonal high [37]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - 230 steel enterprises have completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation. Ore prices are expected to remain high and oscillating in December. It is advisable to wait and see [38][39]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - European copper smelter Aurubis rejects low offers for copper concentrates. AI - driven data centers are becoming a new engine for copper demand. Macro - factors are mixed, and copper prices are expected to remain high and oscillating. It is recommended to go long on dips [40][41][42]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $28.49 per ton. The short - term fundamentals of lead are not weak. It is advisable to close short positions on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [43][44]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $140.2 per ton. There is a risk of a mid - term squeeze on LME zinc. It is recommended to hold long positions in the calendar spread in the short term and exit the domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage in a timely manner [45][46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - On November 26, LME nickel inventory increased by 1,038 tons. The smelting sector is gradually implementing production cuts, but the balance sheet still shows an oversupply. It is advisable for previous short - sellers to gradually close their positions and consider going long on dips. The situation of resource contraction in Indonesia needs to be evaluated in the medium term [47][48][49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The UK will include critical mineral reserves in its defense procurement plan. The lithium battery market has optimistic expectations, but there are still differences in short - term market sentiment. It is not recommended to chase the long side. If production resumes and demand weakens in the off - season, it is advisable to go short on the right side. In the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips [50][51]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreased, and EIA commercial crude inventories increased. Oil prices rebounded. It is expected that oil prices will remain oscillating and weak in the short term [51][52][53]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt increased. The asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected that asphalt prices will oscillate in the short term [54][55]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory decreased significantly, but it is not a substantial positive factor. It is not recommended to go short, but it is advisable to wait and see for short - selling opportunities [56][57]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong showed mixed changes. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The short - term futures price is expected to remain weak. It is necessary to monitor whether supply reduction occurs due to profit compression [58][60][62]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased. The decline in inventory supports the urea futures price. It is necessary to continue to monitor the release rhythm of winter storage demand [63][64]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import wood pulp spot market showed mixed price changes. It is expected that the pulp market will oscillate in the future [65][66]. 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Chinese ports will resume loading and unloading US soybeans. The spot price of W50 has dropped more than expected, and the European line futures price has declined. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68].

热点报告—铂钯 smingfTable_Title] 铂钯上市系列专题三： 铂/钯期货正式合约解读及上市初期策略推荐 [★Ta铂bl/e钯_S近um期m行ar情y] 分析和展望 25 年铂钯价格的大涨驱动主要来自宏观面支撑和现货实际紧缺。 前者在于低估值贵金属、以及潜在的对黄金在实际需求和避险需 求上的替代效应；后者则是美国政策担忧引发囤货现象。价格趋 势而言，今年铂钯首轮上涨受自身基本面带动更多，第二轮上涨 则很大程度上是跟随贵金属，宏观和基本面交织定价。 有 宏观面中长期偏多，而短期震荡整理。中长期流动性释放与避险 属性依然构成利好，但短期因美联储政策博弈而陷入震荡。12 月降息预期、联储提名等事件存在博弈可能，宏观面迅速转弱的 可能性不大，但年内也较难看到创新高的驱动。 色 金 属 基本面边际趋松，但仍有博弈空间。2026 年供需缺口预计收窄， 但汽车领域铂代钯、珠宝与电子需求提供支撑。在不考虑投资需 求的背景下甚至可能转为紧平衡，2026 年钯金供需过剩幅度预计 扩大，主要受汽车需求被电车挤占拖累。 美国关税政策或是近阶段最重要的变量。美国关税政策是最大不 确定性。政策落地前，期现将形成正循环支撑价格 ...