东证衍生品研究院 黑色与航运部 兰淅 从业资格号：F03086543 投资咨询号：Z0016590 数据点评 重点集装箱港口及关键枢纽监测20250417 • | 港 口 | 地 区 | 最新 | 一 期 | | 月环比 | | 年同比 | | 月平均 | 去年同期 | 单 位 | 450 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 洋山 | 中国 | 45 . | 4 | 8 . | 5 | 17 | 4 . | 36 | 9 . | 27 9 . | 小时 | 400 | | 宁波 | 中国 | 52 . | 1 | 7 . | 0 | 0 - | 3 . | 45 | 0 . | 52 3 . | 小时 | | | 新加坡 | 东南亚 | 32 . | 5 | 1 - | 1 . | 2 - | 1 . | 33 | 6 . | 34 5 . | 小时 | 350 | | 巴生 | 东南亚 | 50 . | 3 | 6 - | 6 . | 1 - | 5 . | 56 | 9 . ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Tariff issues continue to disrupt the market, being the main trading logic. Most non - US countries aim to negotiate agreements with the US. After the US delays imposing reciprocal tariffs, other countries also delay counter - measures [1]. - The market is in a high - level oscillation, lacking unilateral investment opportunities. The impact of tariffs on the real economy is gradually emerging, and risk appetite is difficult to improve significantly [2][21]. - The price trends of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and weather, showing different characteristics of oscillation, strength, or weakness. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Tariff issues continue to disrupt the market. Gold oscillated and closed higher, showing strength. The market is concerned about future Sino - US negotiation space. The actual trade has been affected, and economic downward pressure is increasing. Market sentiment is bullish, but attention should be paid to increased volatility [12]. - Investment advice: Short - term market volatility increases, so pay attention to risks [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 164.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The market is in high - level oscillation, lacking unilateral investment opportunities. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties [13]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties [14]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple events such as the US considering tax increases on the rich, investigating key minerals, and the slow progress of US - EU trade negotiations have occurred. The difficulty of trade negotiations persists, and the market should have a long - term expectation for tariff negotiations [15][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will rebound in the short term [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - New York state's manufacturing has contracted for two consecutive months, and Canada will conditionally exempt some counter - measures against US - imported cars. The EU expects US tariffs to remain unchanged. The impact of tariffs on the real economy is emerging, and the stock index is expected to oscillate weakly [20][21]. - Investment advice: Although US stocks have temporarily stabilized, they have not completely reversed their weak performance [21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The NOPA's March soybean crushing volume was lower than expected, and ANEC raised Brazil's April soybean export forecast. Domestic soybean import costs have decreased. The spot market has mixed price changes, and the basis contract is the main form of trading [22][24]. - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to Brazil's export quotes, US soybean growing area weather, and Sino - US relations. The spot and basis of soybean meal will be under pressure [24]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export tariff of Malaysian crude palm oil in May remains at 10%, and the reference price is lowered. The export of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 - 15 increased. The oil market oscillated. Rapeseed oil was affected by rumors, palm oil was supported by exports, and soybean oil was affected by the expectation of high soybean arrivals [25][26]. - Investment advice: It is advisable to long - allocate distant - month soybean oil. The price of palm oil will be weak until its cost - performance is fully restored [27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Guangxi issued a drought risk warning for sugarcane. Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of April decreased year - on - year. The sugar mill's high - price sales support the futures market, but it is in the off - season, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The international market may be under pressure, and the import volume is expected to increase [30][33]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in Q2 2025, and attention should be paid to the origin weather and Brazil's crushing production [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Starch enterprises' losses remain unchanged. The raw material cost is high, and the downstream demand is weak. The futures price difference is affected by complex factors, and the loss may lead to a reduction in production. The substitution of wheat may affect the regional price difference [34][35]. - Investment advice: The futures price difference of corn starch has complex influencing factors and is expected to have small fluctuations [36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of corn is stable. The import of grains is decreasing, and the inventory reduction in Northeast China is accelerating. The drought in North China wheat may affect the market [37]. - Investment advice: Before the May delivery, pay attention to inventory reduction in Northeast China and North China wheat production. Otherwise, the second - round upward repair of old - crop corn may be driven by the tightening of inventory after the May delivery [37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In early April, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased, and the inventory increased. The steel price oscillated, and the market driver is not obvious. The market is waiting for policy signals and the impact of administrative crude steel production cuts [38][40]. - Investment advice: Be cautious about steel price rebounds, operate with light positions, and use spot for rebound hedging [41]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - In March 2025, the production of domestic cathode copper increased. The US copper industry called for export restrictions instead of tariff policies. The global economic downturn concerns and domestic supply - demand conditions may suppress copper prices [42][44]. - Investment advice: In the short term, copper prices are expected to oscillate widely. It is advisable to conduct band operations unilaterally and remain on the sidelines for arbitrage [44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon production plan is expected to increase, but the high inventory and weak demand may put pressure on the spot price. The number of registered warehouse receipts is limited [46]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunities of going long on PS2506 at low prices and shorting PS2511 at high prices unilaterally. Hold the PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The demand for industrial silicon raw materials is weak, and the price of silica has decreased regionally. The supply is loose, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is affected by factors such as factory production reduction and policy [47]. - Investment advice: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate between 9000 - 10500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to shorting opportunities after the price rebounds [49]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The discovery of high - grade tin - tantalum mineralization in a project may affect the market sentiment. The short - term supply reduction may help the price stabilize, but the long - term external demand is uncertain due to the tariff war [50][51]. - Investment advice: Short - term lithium prices may stabilize, and short positions can consider taking profits. In the medium - long term, pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds [51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME will add two nickel delivery warehouses in Hong Kong. The macro - market and supply - demand factors affect nickel prices. The current nickel price may be oversold, and there are opportunities for upward repair [52][53]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices, manage positions well, and find short - matching varieties to hedge risks [53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price oscillated, following macro - news. The supply of primary lead decreased, and the raw material of recycled lead was in short supply. The import window of crude lead opened, and the inventory decreased slightly [54][55]. - Investment advice: In the short term, wait and see. Hold previous long positions and wait for buying opportunities on pullbacks. Hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [55]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME approved four LME - approved warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. The zinc price oscillated downward, and the inventory may turn from decreasing to increasing. In the short term, zinc prices will oscillate widely, and in the medium term, it is advisable to short on rebounds [56][58]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, pay attention to shorting opportunities on medium - term rebounds near the moving average. For arbitrage, remain on the sidelines for inter - period and hold the internal - external positive arbitrage in the medium term [58]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API crude oil inventory increased, and the IEA lowered the global oil demand growth forecast. The oil price oscillated, and the market is pessimistic about the demand outlook [59][60]. - Investment advice: The short - term crude oil price will maintain an oscillating pattern [61]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price decreased, and the basis strengthened slightly. The terminal demand is affected by tariffs, and the supply - side inventory decreased due to maintenance. In the short term, it may rebound slightly, but in the long term, it is bearish [62][63]. - Investment advice: The rebound height of the PTA industry chain is limited, and it is bearish in the medium - long term [64]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market prices in Shandong and Henan decreased slightly. The supply is stable, and the demand is for rigid needs. The future supply may increase, and the demand is restricted by the downstream's acceptance of high - price复合肥 [65][66]. - Investment advice: The urea price will oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the demand in traditional and new delivery areas [66]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The trading volume of Shandong styrene decreased. The styrene price oscillated weakly, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively better than that of pure benzene. However, the demand after May is still under pressure [67][68]. - Investment advice: Consider taking profits on the strategy of expanding the styrene - pure benzene price difference. The styrene price is expected to be under pressure [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased steadily. The supply increased, and the demand improved. The price may have bottomed out, but there is still macro - uncertainty [69]. - Investment advice: Temporarily wait and see [70]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable, with some local price drops. The pulp price is affected by the macro - environment [71]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [73]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased slightly, and the trading was poor. The market is affected by tariffs and domestic stimulus policies [74]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the impact of tariffs on demand and the scale and type of domestic stimulus policies [74]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories decreased locally. The bottle chip market is affected by raw materials and tariffs. The supply and demand both increase, and the processing fee is expected to oscillate at a low level [75][76]. - Investment advice: The processing fee of bottle chips will oscillate in a low - level range [76]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - In 2025, the national carbon emission trading market work started. Three industries will be included in the carbon market, and the carbon emission price is expected to be under pressure [77]. - Investment advice: The CEA price will be under pressure [78]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the southwest market oscillated at a low level. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak [79]. - Investment advice: The soda ash futures price is expected to be under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds in the medium term [79]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market was stable. The glass price decreased, and the demand in different regions is different [80]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the near - month contract will be under pressure. Consider going long on distant - month contracts on large pullbacks, but the rebound space is not optimistic [81][82]. 3.2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - MSC is expected to become the world's largest terminal operator. The spot index is lower than expected, and the market is worried about the excess capacity on the US line [83]. - Investment advice: The excess capacity on the US line may suppress the upward space of the market. The European line will be weak in the short term. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities due to sentiment over - selling [83].

调研报告——苯乙烯 东证化工草根调研二十四：华南苯乙烯及下游 | 走势评级: | | --- | 能 源 化 ★下游在手订单尚能支撑 4 月生产，但 5 月需求端实际冲击或显现 我们本次走访时点为 4.8-4.11，正值贸易冲突势态升级之际，因此我 们重点关注了下游的在手订单、冲突影响等情况，得到了以下几点 反馈：①关税政策相关的扰动暂未对下游 3S 工厂造成直接影响，调 研的 3S 企业基本表示目前在手订单可以支撑 4 月的生产（也有物料 平衡、完成生产计划等考虑），但政策的不确定性加深了客户观望 情绪，新订单情况受到影响，5-6 月下游开工情况需要边走边看。② 有企业反馈，其客户的客户/经销商的下游近期有出现砍单现象。③ 部分下游反馈，玩具等行业今年一季度存在比较明显的抢出口现象， 或透支后续需求。④关于下游 3S 成品库存情况，部分企业感知社会 库存偏高，但我们调研的下游企业反馈厂内库存整体中性。⑤若下 游成品价格进一步压降，可关注 EPS 与 EPO/EPP、PS 新料与再生 料等替代需求，或对需求滑坡形成一定缓冲。 工 ★华南-华东价差此前受益需求有所走扩，后续则或维持偏窄区间 此前华南市场价格明显 ...

周度报告——光伏玻璃 新线点火增加，光伏玻璃供给呈上行趋势 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 4 月 14 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/4/11 当周）： 截至 4 月 11 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 14.5 元/平米，环比上周持平；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 22.5 元/平米，亦环比上周持平。4 月光伏玻璃价格继续上涨，本月 光伏玻璃厂家与二三线下游客户成交价格多为高价区间，与一线 下游客户成交多为低价区间，具体成交价格根据实际交易量而 定。与此同时，行业仍有下游客户采取先拿货月底再议价的方式。 能 源 化 上周光伏玻璃供给端有两条新产线点火，一条产线引头子，整体 供给量继续增长。预计本周有一条产线存在点火预期，一条产线 存在冷修预期，个别企业仍有放开窑口计划，短期整体供给仍呈 上行趋势。 工 上周国内光伏玻璃厂家走货节奏明显放缓，主要原因有三方面： 首先是上下游价格博弈导致下游组件端下单量较少；其次是终端 需求阶段性回落导致组件市场降温，光伏玻璃消费量受到影响； 再次是三月末释放涨价情绪阶段，下游组件厂家备货量较为充 足，当前以消化库存为 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国豁免部分商品对等关税 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-14 卡什卡里称美联储所能做的就是稳住通胀预期 美国豁免部分商品对等关税，表明短期对等关税引发的市场波 动暂时告一段落，美元继续走弱。 宏观策略（国债期货） 3 月金融数据普遍超预期 降准降息难以被证伪，市场仍然处于偏多环境，赔率受限的环 境下可寻找回调后的买入机会 综 宏观策略（股指期货） 合 美国将智能手机等产品进行对等关税豁免 晨 报 全球股市跟随特朗普关税政策而变，除美股外全球股市多数反 弹。近期美国对一些关键进口商品或采取对等关税豁免，但其 政策变数依然较大。仍建议在年报季谨慎对待。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 各地拟使用专项债收地总金额已破千亿元 周五钢价午后有所反弹，核心驱动仍在于贸易谈判和国内政策 发力的预期。但贸易谈判难度较大，风险仍未解除，卷板需求 出现边际走弱迹象，建议谨慎看待钢价反弹空间。 有色金属（铜） 紫金矿业：一季度归母净利润 101.67 亿元 由于美国豁免部分产品"对等关税"，贸易摩擦继续升级风险 阶段下降，市场风险偏好回升，铜价预计震荡偏强 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "Bearish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - London gold soared 6.6% to $3,237 per ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.49%, inflation expectations dropped to 2.23%, real interest rates rose to 2.26%, the US dollar index tumbled 2.84% to 100, the S&P 500 index rebounded 5.7%, the RMB rose slightly, and the Shanghai gold shifted from a premium to a discount [2] - The sharp rise in gold was driven by the inflow of funds due to the triple slump in the US stock, bond, and exchange markets. The erratic US tariff policy and the escalating retaliatory tariffs between the US and China increased market risk aversion, which was fundamentally beneficial to gold. The extreme tariff policy also led to capital outflows from the US, weakening the US dollar and benefiting gold [2] - US economic data showed a decline in inflation pressure in March, but food prices continued to rise, and future tariffs would cause further price increases. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index in April decreased, while the one-year inflation expectation climbed [2] - There is a risk of overheating in the short-term market sentiment. The positions and trading volume of Shanghai gold have increased significantly, and there was profit-taking by long positions overseas last week. The short-term postponement of additional tariffs and exemptions for certain commodities by the US reduced the possibility of conflict escalation, and the Fed's potential market intervention also eased the selling pressure [3] - After the strong rise of gold, long positions have become crowded in the short term. Tariff developments will increase market volatility, and attention should be paid to the risk of a correction [4] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Gold High-Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The internal basis (spot - futures) was 0.45 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of 0.52 yuan and a change rate of -742.9%. The internal - external futures price difference was -9.19 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of -11.28 yuan and a change rate of -539.0% [11] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 3 kilograms to 15,678 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 495,732 ounces to 44,575,964 ounces [11] - The SPDR ETF holding volume rose by 20.35 tons to 953.15 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long positions decreased by 38,088 hands to 138,465 hands [11] - The US Treasury yield increased by 0.47 percentage points to 4.48%, and the US dollar index decreased by 3.15 points to 99.77 [11] - The SOFR was 4.37%, with a weekly decrease of 0.02 percentage points. The US 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropped by 0.0431 percentage points to 2.2336% [11] - The S&P 500 index increased by 289 points to 5,363, and the VIX volatility index decreased by 7.8 points to 37.6 [11] - The gold cross - market arbitrage trading volume decreased by 0.1 to 7.2, and the US 10-year real interest rate increased by 0.58 percentage points to 2.26% [11] 2. Financial Market Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.37%. Oil prices dropped 3.1%, and US inflation expectations fell to 2.23% [17] - The US dollar index tumbled 2.8% to 100, and the US Treasury yield was 4.49%. The S&P 500 index rebounded 5.7%, and the VIX index dropped to 37.56 [19] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets declined, while the S&P 500 index rebounded 5.7%. Developing country stock markets also fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 3.11% [22] - Real interest rates rose to 2.25%, and gold prices soared 6.6%. The spot commodity index closed higher, and the US dollar index tumbled [23] - The euro rose 3.53%, the British pound rose 1.53%, the Japanese yen rose 2.31%, and the Swiss franc rose 5.34% [26] - US and German bond yields increased, and the US - German yield spread widened to 1.92%. The British government bond yield was 4.75%, and the Japanese government bond yield was 1.32% [27] - The US dollar index dropped 2.84% to 100, and most non - US currencies appreciated [28] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - Gold speculative net long positions decreased to 138,000 hands, and the SPDR Gold ETF holding volume increased to 953 tons [31] - The RMB depreciated slightly, and the internal - external price difference fluctuated narrowly. Gold and silver prices soared, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 100 [35] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's March foreign trade and financial data; US March New York Fed inflation expectations [36] - Tuesday: Germany and Eurozone April ZEW economic sentiment index; US April New York Fed manufacturing index and March import price index [36] - Wednesday: China's Q1 GDP, March retail sales, and industrial added - value data; US March retail sales and April NAHB housing index [36] - Thursday: ECB interest rate meeting; US March new housing starts, building permits, and initial jobless claims [36] - Friday: Japan's March CPI; US stock market closed for Good Friday [36]

金工策略周报 东证衍生品研究院金融工程组 2025年4月13日 王冬黎 金融工程首席分析师（国债期货） 从业资格号： F3032817 投资咨询号： Z0014348 Email: dongli.wang@orientfutures.com 常海晴 金融工程高级分析师(股指期货) 从业资格号：F03087441 投资咨询号：Z0019497 Email: haiqing.chang@orientfutures.com 李晓辉 金融工程首席分析师（CTA） 从业资格号： F03120233 投资咨询号： Z0019676 Email: Xiaohui.li01@orientfutures.com 联系人 徐凡 金融工程分析师(FOF、基本面量化) 从业资格号： F03107676 Email: qinxuan.fan@orientfutures.com 股指期货量化策略跟踪 常海晴 金融工程高级分析师(股指期货) 从业资格号：F03087441 投资咨询号：Z0019497 Email: haiqing.chang@orientfutures.com 对等关税事件冲击市场，股指期货空头套保需求上升导致各品种贴水 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina prices continue to decline, and the industry is facing cost - profit pressure. However, with the reduction in operating capacity and potential demand recovery, the price may gradually enter a bottom - grinding stage [13][15] - The supply of bauxite is affected by policies and market factors, with domestic prices in a downward trend but limited downside space, and overseas supply facing uncertainties [2][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview Raw Materials - Domestic ore prices are in a downward channel. Shanxi 58/5 bauxite is priced at 730 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 at 668 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 at 596 yuan/ton. The short - term price is in a downward range but with limited downside space [2][12] - For imports, large bauxite enterprises are signing long - term contracts, with prices ranging from 88 - 95 dollars/dry ton. There is a stalemate between supply and demand, and the market rumor of Guinea's GIC mine shutdown is unconfirmed. Newly arrived ore is 665.4 million tons, including 549 million tons from Guinea and 71.5 million tons from Australia [2][12] Alumina - Last week, alumina spot prices continued to decline. The ALD northern comprehensive price is 2800 - 2900 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton from last week; the domestic weighted index is 2845.4 yuan/ton, down 139.6 yuan/ton. Imported alumina port prices are 2960 - 3040 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan/ton [3][13] - Many alumina enterprises in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou are in a loss situation. The domestic alumina full - cost is 3100 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit is - 79 yuan/ton [13] - Supply - side: Alumina maintenance, production reduction, and active production cuts are concentrated, with the operating capacity decreasing significantly. The national alumina installed capacity is 10922 million tons, the operating capacity is 8615 million tons, down 490 million tons from last week, and the operating rate is 78.9% [13] Demand - Domestically, some electrolytic aluminum enterprises have resumed or increased production, with the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increasing by 5.5 million tons week - on - week to 4390.38 million tons. Overseas demand remains unchanged, with the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at 2935.8 million tons, flat week - on - week [14] Inventory - As of April 10, the national alumina inventory is 344.3 million tons, up 5.3 million tons from last week. Alumina enterprise inventory is increasing, electrolytic aluminum enterprises maintain low - inventory, and port inventory is currently stable [14] Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 296049 tons, down 10532 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain - On April 11, 0.3 million tons of alumina were traded in the Henan market at an ex - factory price of 2910 yuan/ton [16] - In the short term, more inland enterprises are under maintenance. It is expected that in the next 50 days, the alumina operating capacity will be maintained between 8800 - 9000 million tons, and the balance coefficient will return to around 2, gradually supporting the price [16] - Some large industrial chain group - supported alumina enterprises are under maintenance, with an estimated impact on production capacity of 150 million tons and an estimated output reduction of 7 million tons [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain Raw Materials and Cost Side - The data includes domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, and prices of domestic caustic soda and steam coal [17][20][27] Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - It shows domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, and the ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The weekly supply - demand balance data of alumina shows that the supply - demand gap has changed significantly recently [36][43][44] Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The data covers electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant inventory, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina warehouse receipts and positions [46][49][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are difficult to change, and the rush to install photovoltaic systems is receding. The supply reduction of industrial silicon has been implemented, but the demand remains sluggish. For polysilicon, the core issue is the high inventory, and the spot price may face pressure again with the resumption of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2505 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 365 yuan/ton to 9455 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygenated 553 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10100 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton. The PS2506 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1815 yuan/ton to 41835 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N-type re-feeding material remained unchanged at 41700 yuan/ton [10] 3.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamentals Remain Unchanged, Photovoltaic Rush to Install Recedes - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price of industrial silicon fluctuated downward this week. Xinjiang reduced production by 2 industrial silicon furnaces, with a weekly output of 72400 tons, a decrease of 0.34%. The social inventory of SMM industrial silicon increased by 0.4 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.65 million tons. After the production reduction of large factories in Xinjiang, other large factories did not continue to reduce production. The industrial silicon in the southwest region is slowly resuming work, and some new production capacities are planned to be put into operation this month. The powder list price of polysilicon factories this week is between 10400 - 10500 yuan/ton. Organic silicon continued to reduce production, and the price of aluminum alloy decreased due to US tariffs, maintaining only rigid demand for industrial silicon. Exports may decline in the short term due to relevant policies [12] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon dropped significantly this week. Many enterprises maintained reduced production, with an overall operating rate of about 63.3%, a decrease of 3.28 percentage points. The weekly output was 41900 tons, a decrease of 3.23%, and the inventory was 53700 tons, an increase of 6.97%. After the price increase, the downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited, and the procurement intensity weakened. Although monomer factories continued to operate at reduced capacity, there was no shortage of supply, and the factory inventory increased instead of decreasing [12][13] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated downward this week. The price of silicon materials remained stable temporarily due to fewer signed orders, but the manufacturers' recent quotations have started to decline. The planned production of polysilicon in April is expected to be about 1 million tons, and it is expected to increase to about 1.1 million tons in May. It is estimated that polysilicon can continue to reduce inventory by 10000 tons in May. However, the core problem of polysilicon is still the high inventory, with the industry - wide inventory possibly around 4.5 million tons. From April to May, silicon wafer manufacturers mainly aim to digest their existing inventory, with low procurement enthusiasm. With the resumption of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand, the spot price may face pressure again. As of April 11, the number of registered warehouse receipts was only 10 lots [3][13] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers started to decline this week. Affected by the earthquake, the price of silicon wafers was raised, but the terminal demand declined earlier than expected, resulting in low acceptance of the new price. The mainstream transaction prices of M10, G12R, and G12 models may gradually fall to 1.25, 1.50, and 1.55 yuan/watt. The planned production of silicon wafers in April was adjusted down to 60 - 62GW, and the silicon wafer sector continued to reduce inventory. As of April 60 (presumably a typo, might be April 6), the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 20.9GW, an increase of 1.4GW. In May, considering that the silicon wafer sector has been reducing inventory for 8 consecutive months and the current inventory has dropped to a half - month level, the planned production of silicon wafers in May is also expected to be above 60GW. After the rush - to - install period, the market demand may weaken rapidly, and the price of silicon wafers may continue to decline [14] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells remained basically stable this week. The price of M10 and G12 model battery cells remained at 0.31 yuan/watt, and the price of G12R model battery cells dropped slightly to 0.33 yuan/watt. The decline in component prices led to low acceptance of high - priced battery cells. The planned production of domestic battery cells in April was 61 - 63GW, continuing the inventory reduction trend. As of April 7, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 2.58GW, an increase of 1.3GW. Looking forward, after the end of the rush - to - install period, the price of battery cells may decline with the weakening of demand from late April [14] - **Components**: The price of components dropped slightly this week. As the rush - to - install tide gradually receded, the price of distributed components started to decline, falling to the level of 0.75 - 0.76 yuan/watt, and high - price transactions shrank rapidly. The price of centralized components was basically stable. On April 9, China Power Construction terminated the 5.1GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement project for 2025. It is expected that the project will be re - tendered, but the procurement price and price level may be lower than before. The planned production of components in April was 66 - 68GW. Considering the delivery of the remaining orders of distributed components and the placement of centralized component orders, the planned production of components in May is expected to be 60 - 62GW. After the rush - to - install period, the price of components is expected to continue to decline [15] 3.3 Investment Recommendations - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reduction of large factories in Xinjiang may lead to inventory reduction, but without policy support, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is weak. The upper limit of the disk price depends on the hedging point. The lower limit mainly considers two points: 1) cost and production reduction; 2) selling the new standard 421 as 99 - grade silicon. Considering that the spot price may continue to fall towards the cost line of large factories and the premium of 800 yuan/ton for the new contract, in a worse - case scenario, the disk price may fall to about 9000 yuan/ton. Therefore, the disk price may fluctuate between 9000 - 10500 yuan/ton. For unilateral trading, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the disk price rebounds. For arbitrage, it is recommended to pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity of Si2511 - Si2512 [4][17] - **Polysilicon**: After the rush - to - install period, with the resumption of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand, the spot price may face pressure again. However, in April, polysilicon started warehouse receipt registration, and the disk will also trade the contradiction of warehouse receipts. Considering that only five enterprises meet the delivery brand requirements and the production of deliverable products from March to May is limited, silicon material factories will be more cautious about hedging, and a too - low disk price may lead to a shortage of warehouse receipts. Therefore, for unilateral trading, it is recommended to pay attention to both the opportunity to go long on PS2506 at low prices and the opportunity to go short on PS2511 at high prices. For arbitrage, the long - short position of PS2506 - PS2511 can continue to be held [4][17] 3.4 Hot News - China Power Construction terminated the 5.1GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement project for 2025 due to factors such as the adjustment of new energy electricity price policies [15][18] - On April 9, the 100000 - ton hydropower silicon energy - saving and environmental - protection project of Yunnan Energy Investment Group Yongchang Silicon Industry was put into operation, with an expected annual industrial output value of over 1.5 billion yuan, tax payments of over 120 million yuan, and the creation of more than 300 jobs [18] - The 1.6 million - ton organic silicon project of Qiya Group started construction on April 1, 2025, and is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2026. It is an important plan for Qiya Group to improve the full silicon - based industrial chain [18]

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 对等关税暂缓，美元指数走弱 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好骤降，股市多数下降，债券收益率多数上行，美 债收益率升至 4.49%。美元指数跌 2.84%至 100.1，非美货币多数 贬值，离岸人民币涨 0.1%，欧元涨 3.53%，英镑涨 1.53%，日元 涨 2.31%，瑞郎涨 5.34%，澳元和新西兰元涨近 4%，韩元和加 元涨超 2%，新兴市场货币涨跌互现。金价大涨 6.6%至 3237 美 元/盎司，VIX 指数回落至 37.6，现货商品指数收涨，布油跌 3.1%至 65.8 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 特朗普政府对外大幅加征对等关税后，市场避险情绪骤然上 升，多数国家开始展开与美国的谈判，对等关税也延期 90 天， 但中国和美国互相加征报复性关税并层层加码至 145%，到达了 无法开展正常贸易的水平。特朗普政府最新动态是对芯片等高 端商品进行关税豁免，短期内贸易战继续升级的空间有限，但 特朗普政府朝令夕改的政策不确定性，加大了市场的波动，关 税也将打压经济前景，需求下降、企业利润受损都将施压股 市。美联储 ...