周度报告——风险管理 期货技术分析周报：2025 年第 50 周 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 7 日 ★商品期货 当前期货市场各板块呈现显著分化格局。贵金属与有色金属 板块整体偏强，其中黄金及铜、锌、铅等多数有色品种释放 看涨信号，而工业硅、氧化铝及碳酸锂则显示看跌。具体来 看 ， 沪 铜 中 长 期 上 涨 趋 势 未 变 ， 上 方 关 键 阻 力 位 于 93800-94700 元/吨，短期虽有小幅回调可能，但在 91000 元/ 吨附近存在支撑，若回调中不出现顶部背离且布林带保持扩 张，则整理后有望延续涨势。黑色系走势不一，螺纹钢周线 在 MA60 均线处承压明显，日线出现滞涨与阴线风险信号， 上方阻力关注 3200-3250 区间。能源化工板块整体承压，多 数品种呈看跌信号；以甲醇为例，其价格上涨动能减弱，处 于围绕布林带中轨的盘整状态。农产品板块亦偏弱，棕榈油、 红枣等少数品种看涨，而白糖等品种处于震荡下跌格局，反 弹乏力且中期仍有向下波动空间。综合而言，市场多空结构 分明，操作上需区别对待，强势品种避免追高，可关注回调 后的机会，弱势品种则需注意风险控制。 ★金融期货 从期货市场技术信号 ...

金工策略周报 东证衍生品研究院金工首席分析师：李晓辉（CTA） 从业资格号： F03120233 投资咨询号： Z0019676 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：常海晴（股指期货） 从业资格号：F03087441 投资咨询号：Z0019497 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：徐凡（国债期货、基本面量化） 从业资格号： F03107676 投资咨询号： Z0022032 上海东证期货有限公司 股指期货量化策略 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：常海晴（股指期货） 从业资格号：F03087441 投资咨询号：Z0019497 上海东证期货有限公司 股指期货量化策略跟踪周报主要内容 ★股指期货行情简评： 市场上周显著反弹。分行业看，有色贡献了上证50、沪深300主要的涨幅；机械、有色贡献了中证500和中证1000主要的涨幅。 IF、IC、IM成交环比下行，IH成交环比上行，各品种基差走弱。(股指期货基差=期货收盘价-现货收盘价) ★股指期货基差策略推荐： 各品种基差走弱，IH升水，IF维持浅贴水、IC、IM维持深贴水。当前股指期货上的套保需求依然以空头为主，预计IC、IM的深度贴水格局仍将维持， 建议关注跨期正套的交 ...

周度报告——新能源汽车 smingfTable_Title] 11 月国内新能源乘用车零售增速 7%， 年累计增速 20% ★ 动态跟踪 国内市场，11 月，乘用车零售 226.3 万辆，同比-7%，新能 源乘用车零售 135.4 万辆，同比 7%，新能源零售渗透率 59.8%； 1-11 月，国内乘用车、新能源零售分别累计 2,151.9 万辆、1,150.4 万辆，分别同比 6%、20%。 新 能 源 与 海外市场，10 月美国新能源汽车销量 9.4 万辆，同比下降 32.4%，环比下降 50.9%，1-10 月累计销量 142.5 万辆，同比增长 9.1%。新能源渗透率从 9 月的 15%骤降至 10 月的 7%。受到 9 月 30 日美联邦电动汽车税收抵免（7,500 美元）到期的影响，8、 9 月新能源汽车销量大幅前置，销量和渗透率连续创下历史新 高，10 月呈现断崖式下落，符合预期。展望后市，预期年累计 增速将继续回落，并向 0%趋近。去年四季度市场表现相对较强， 也对今年增速表现产生进一步拉低。 新 材 料 10 月欧洲市场新能源汽车销量 35.4 万辆，同比增长 36.4%， 1-10 月累计 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿价下行， 氧化铝供应小幅压降 [Table_Summary] ★ 几内亚矿价下行，氧化铝供应小幅压降 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 698 元/ 吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 658 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到 厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。山西地区国产矿价格微调，随着进 口矿供应宽松幅度增加，价格下行压力加剧，国产铝土矿价格也 存在下调压力。进口方面，几内亚矿主流报价区间为 70-71 美元 /干吨，市场传出几内亚铝土矿现货报价降至 68 美元/干吨的消 息。周末时期再传顺达及 GIC 矿山复产消息，目前两家矿企已 在做复产准备，但尚未有具体复产时间，预期于 2026 年元旦前 后。期内新到矿石 380.0 万吨，其中新到几内亚资源 291.8 万吨， 澳大利亚资源 71.4 万吨。几内亚至中国的 Cape 船市场参考报价 26 美元/吨，价格明显上行。 氧化铝：上周氧化铝现货价格小幅下行。阿拉丁（ALD）北方 综合价格在 2780-2820 元/吨，较上周跌 25 元/吨；国产加 ...

周度报告-黄金 降息预期定价充分，黄金震荡收跌 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 7 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金跌 1%至 4198 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率升至 4.14%，通 胀预期 2.27%，实际利率上行至 1.87%，美元指数跌 0.47%至 99，标 普 500 指数涨 0.31%，人民币走势震荡，沪金折价收窄。 贵 金 属 金价震荡收跌，波动率下降，缺乏增量利多，白银和铜交易热度 明显高于黄金。美联储进入 12 月利率会议前的静默期，降息 25bp 已经被市场充分定价，特朗普宣布将于明年初公布美联储主席人 选，暗示将会是白宫经济顾问委员会主席哈塞特，其货币政策倾 向于鸽派，一度提振黄金价格。美国经济数据喜忧参半，11 月美 国 ISM 制造业 PMI 录得 48.2，不及市场预期的 49，连续 9 个月处 于收缩区间，非制造业 PMI 从 52.4 微升至 52.6，预期 52.1，制造 业和非制造业 PMI 的就业分项较上月回升，但仍然处于 50 荣枯 线下方，关税对价格和需求的影响已经开始体现，美联储褐皮书 ...

周度报告—碳酸锂 供应压力影响短期预期，盘面高位回调 | | | 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 7 日 [Table_Summary] ★供应压力影响短期预期，盘面高位回调 上周（11/24-11/28）锂盐价格呈偏弱走势。LC2512 收盘价环比 -4.1%至 9.07 万元/吨，LC2601 收盘价环比-4.1%至 9.08 万元/吨； SMM 电池级及工业级碳酸锂现货均价环比-0.5%至 9.33、9.08 万 元/吨。氢氧化锂价格跟随上行，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢 氧化锂均价环比分别+0.1%、+0.1%至 8.21、8.69 万元/吨。电工 价差环比持平至 2,450 元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂 价格贴水环比缩窄 550 元至 1.1 万元/吨。 据智利海关，11 月智利共出口碳酸锂及氢氧化锂 2.0 万吨，环比 -27%，同比-14%；其中对中国出口 1.47 万吨，环比-9.4%，同比 -13%，对应 12 月到港量环比预计下滑。1-11 月智利合计出口碳 酸锂及氢氧化锂 23.5 万吨，同比-2%；其中对中国出口 15.2 万吨， 同比-15%。 上周盘面呈偏弱回调，消息 ...

[★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 根据铁合金在线，本周新疆增开 5 台、云南减少 2 台、四川下 降 14 台、内蒙增开 1 台。周末石河子启动重污染天气 II 级 （橙色）应急响应，关注后续影响。新疆大厂复产，有机硅和 出口需求弱于预期，导致更新平衡表后，12 月至明年一季度工 业硅也将单月累库 1-2 万吨，基本面情况不乐观。硅厂在盘面 高位时进行套保，当前库存压力不大，现货不愿低价出售。下 游在 8800 元/吨一线点价采购，周五期现出货情况尚好。 周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 新疆大厂增产，多晶硅新增交割品牌 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 当前现货龙头一线厂家 N 型致密复投料价格维持 51-53 元/千 克以上，颗粒料维持 50-51 元/千克，东方希望 N 型致密 49-51 元/千克。12 月多晶硅排产预计 11.2 万吨，库存继续累积。终 端需求下行，中游环节降价减产，行业库存高企，多晶硅现货 价格想要逆势上涨几无可能，但在行业自律和平台收储的叙事 下，头部多晶硅企业仍在强势挺价撑市。上下游的割裂感日益 加剧，但考虑到平台公司仍有序推进，我们预期多晶硅现货价 格或仍以持平为主。12 月 5 日广 ...

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 美国经济数据走弱，美元转向下行 市场风险偏好维持高位，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数上 行，美债收益率升至 4.14%。美元指数跌 0.47%至 99，非美货币 多数升值，离岸人民币微涨 0.02%，欧元涨 0.38%，英镑涨 0.7%，日元涨 0.54%，瑞郎跌 0.1%，加元、澳元、兰特涨超 1%，新西兰元、比索、泰铢、林吉特收涨，雷亚尔跌超 2%。 金价跌 1%至 4198 美元/盎司，VIX 指数降至 15.4，现货商品指 数收涨，布油涨 0.4%至 64.6 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 美联储进入利率会议前的静默期，市场对 12 月降息 25bp 已经有 充分定价。美国经济数据喜忧参半，但经济下行趋势未改，11 月美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 录得 48.2，不及市场预期的 49，连续 9 个月处于收缩区间，非制造业 PMI 从 52.4 微升至 52.6，预期 52.1，制造业和非制造业 PMI 的就业分项较上月回升，但仍然 处于 50 荣枯线下方，制造业新订单有所回升，物价分项处于高 位，关税对价格和需求的影响已经开始体现，美联储褐 ...

周度报告-国债期货 中短债企稳，超长债尚需观察 | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 国债：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 | 07 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货走势分化，超长债大跌 本周（12.01-12.07）国债走势分化，TL 大跌。周一，消息面平 静，股指震荡上涨，但国债期货经过大幅下跌后存在反弹需 求，中短端品种表现较强。周二，消息面平静，但市场较为担 忧可能出现政策、供给、机构卖出老券兑现利润等风险，国债 期货下跌，TL 跌幅较大。周三，资金面均衡，中短端品种小幅 走强，但市场稳增长政策预期有所上升，TL 情绪较弱，跌幅较 大。周四，市场消息面平静，但国债市场情绪面较弱，国债期 货大幅下跌，午盘市场虽期待监管介入而小幅拉升，但随即市 场再度下跌。直至期货市场收盘后，现券利率才小幅下行。周 五，周四尾盘现券利率有所下行，国债期货高开。临近政治局 会议，市场降准降息预期上升，中短端品种上涨，TL 也由跌转 涨。截至 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US initial jobless claims decreased, and the market risk preference was moderate, with the US dollar index fluctuating in the short - term [1][14]. - Gold prices fluctuated and rose near the $4200 mark, and silver prices retreated from high levels. The upward momentum of commodities slowed down [2][11]. - The macro factors are relatively supportive of copper prices in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [38]. - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased, but the soda ash market is still under pressure due to supply expansion and demand reduction [4][70][71]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Hasset expects a 25bp interest rate cut at the next meeting. Gold prices fluctuated and rose near $4200, and silver prices retreated from high levels. The market is in a consolidation phase, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to rise [10][11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - The US un - paid national debt exceeded $30 trillion, and the initial jobless claims were lower than expected. The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [12][14][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Goldman Sachs suspended the bond issuance for CyrusOne. The US initial jobless claims decreased. The US stock index futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and be treated with a bullish mindset overall [17][18]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - 16 provinces completed the old - community renovation plan. China and France held talks. The stock market trading was light, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures evenly [19][20][21]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 100 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. The treasury bond futures fell sharply. It is recommended to hold short positions before the market sentiment stabilizes [22][24][25]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The boxboard and corrugated paper industries' operating rates increased. The corn starch supply pressure is expected to remain low. It is recommended to operate around the current processing fee in the rice - flour price difference strategy [26][27]. 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal price in the northern port market was weak. The coal price is expected to decline seasonally from December to January [28]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The global new ship order volume decreased by over 40% year - on - year. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate sideways [29]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal auction price in Lvliang increased. The first round of coke price cuts was implemented. The coking coal and coke market is expected to fluctuate [30][31]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of corn deep - processing enterprises increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The 01 contract is expected to drive the market upward in the short - term, and mid - and long - term opportunities should be focused on [32][33]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Argentina's soybean planting progress was delayed. The vegetable oil market weakened, and the palm oil price rebound was blocked. It is recommended to pay attention to the palm oil's rebound opportunities [34][35]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The dehydration project of Kamoa - Kakula Copper Mine progressed smoothly, and high - grade mining is expected to resume. Mercuria plans to extract over 40,000 tons of copper from LME warehouses. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to buy on dips [36][37][38]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Shaanxi's photovoltaic and wind power mechanism electricity prices were announced. The polysilicon supply - demand contradiction worsened. It is recommended to operate cautiously and consider option double - buying opportunities [39][40]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hesheng Silicon Industry's controlling shareholder pledged part of its shares. The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate between 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton [41][42]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a discount, and the lead ingot social inventory reached a 15 - month low. It is recommended to buy lead on dips [43][44]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was at a premium, and the zinc ingot social inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to the pressure near 23,000 yuan/ton [45][46]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Vale's 2026 nickel production is expected to be 175,000 - 200,000 tons. The nickel market is expected to fluctuate and wait for new drivers [47][48]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. is expected to exceed its lithium carbonate production plan. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and buy on dips in the mid - term [49][50]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin 0 - 3 spread was at a premium. The tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to buy on dips [51][52]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA closing price was 60.03 yuan/ton. The CEA price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [53][54]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory decreased week - on - week. The NYMEX natural gas faces downward pressure [55][57]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (LLDPE) - China's polyethylene production decreased week - on - week. The LLDPE supply - demand is still relatively loose, and short - selling should pay attention to macro disturbances [58][59]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rates of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile industries decreased. The PTA price is expected to have limited downward space in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [59][60][61]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda price in Shandong decreased locally. The caustic soda market is expected to be weak in the short - term [62][63]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory decreased. The urea price is expected to be supported by inventory reduction, and attention should be paid to the new upward drive from the macro - level [64][65][66]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price decreased slightly. The PVC market is expected to fluctuate at a low level due to high supply and low demand [67][68][69]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash manufacturer inventory decreased. The soda ash market is under pressure due to supply expansion and demand reduction, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies [70][71]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass manufacturer inventory decreased. The float glass market is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the mid - term [72].