1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The release of the September non - farm payroll data in the US after the government ended the shutdown showed that the job market continued to cool but without significant deterioration. The data did not strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and the stock market was significantly suppressed. The Fed's stance on a December rate cut is uncertain, and the market's expectation of liquidity tightening has changed, with the probability of a December rate cut exceeding 50% [2][33] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite declined, most stocks fell, bond yields mostly decreased, and the US bond yield dropped to 4.06%. The US dollar index rose 0.89% to 100.2, non - US currencies depreciated, gold fell 0.5% to $4065 per ounce, the VIX index rose to 23.4, and the spot commodity index declined, with Brent crude oil dropping 2.2% to $62.33 per barrel [1][5][9] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly declined, with significant drops in US and A - shares. The September non - farm payroll report did not strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and the Fed's internal differences intensified. The stock market was suppressed, and it is expected that the stock market will continue to oscillate weakly [10][11][13] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping to 4.06%. The decline was driven by the inflow of funds from the falling stock market. However, the Fed's hawkish stance limited the downward space of long - term bond yields. The domestic bond market in China oscillated weakly [14][17][20] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.89% to 100.2, and all non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB gained 0.08%, the euro fell 0.94%, the pound fell 0.55%, the yen fell 1.2%, and others also declined [23][24][26] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Gold fell 0.5% to $4065 per ounce, and it is in an oscillating pattern with a risk of decline. Brent crude oil fell 2.2% to $62.33 per barrel, and the commodity spot index declined due to the weak supply - demand pattern of oil and the strong US dollar [27][29][32] 3.3 Hotspot Tracking - The September US non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with the number of new jobs being 119,000, higher than the expected 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and the wage growth rate remained high at 3.8% year - on - year [2][31][33] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: US November Dallas Fed Business Activity Index - Tuesday: US September retail sales, PPI, housing price index; US November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - Wednesday: US weekly initial jobless claims, September durable goods orders and new home sales; US November Chicago PMI - Thursday: Eurozone November economic sentiment index; Fed releases the Beige Book; ECB October interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: France and Germany October CPI [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "Bearish" [1] Core Viewpoints - The gold price is oscillating around the $4,000 mark, lacking the momentum to break through and rise. When it falls, it attracts bottom - fishing funds, but overall, it has not escaped the range - bound pattern. The employment market in the US is cooling, and the Fed's monetary policy is short - term bearish for gold. Also, some countries may sell gold due to fiscal pressure, increasing its volatility. Short - term gold prices may face a callback risk [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) decreased by 18.4% week - on - week to - 4.26 yuan/gram. The internal - external futures price difference (internal - external) dropped by 108.8% to - 1.82 yuan/gram. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.65%. The SPDR ETF holdings decreased by 0.33% to 1040.57 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long positions decreased by 10.3%. The US Treasury yield decreased by 1.9% to 4.06%, and the US dollar index increased by 0.87% to 100.15 [12] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 3.91%. Oil prices fell by 2.2%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.25%. The US dollar index rose by 0.89%, and the US Treasury yield dropped to 4.06%. The S&P 500 index fell by 1.95%, and the VIX index rose to 23.4. The real interest rate oscillated and closed at 1.83%, and the gold price fell by 0.5%. The spot commodity index declined, and the US dollar index rose by 0.89% [18][20][21] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed and developing country stock markets fell, with the S&P 500 down 1.95% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.9%. US and German bonds declined, with a US - German spread of 1.38%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.56%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.778%. The euro depreciated by 0.94%, the pound by 0.55%, the yen by 1.2%, and the Swiss franc by 1.8%. The US dollar index rose by 0.89% to 100.2, and most non - US currencies depreciated [23][29][32] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The gold speculative net long position data resumed publication, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings slightly decreased to 1040 tons. The RMB slightly depreciated, and the Shanghai gold premium narrowed. Gold and silver prices fell, and the gold - silver ratio rose to 83 [35][38] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: US November Dallas Fed Business Activity Index. Tuesday: US September retail sales, PPI, housing price index, and November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. Wednesday: US weekly initial jobless claims, September durable goods orders, new home sales, and November Chicago PMI. Thursday: Eurozone November economic sentiment index, Fed's Beige Book, and ECB October interest rate meeting minutes. Friday: France and Germany's October CPI [39]

、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿价小幅下跌， 氧化铝供应少量修复 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 11 23 | 月 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★ 几内亚矿价小幅下跌，氧化铝供应少量修复 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/ 吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 658 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到 厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。山西、河南的雨季过去，部分此前 因下雨停产的矿山已经恢复，但增量较为有限。采暖季深入，北 方山西及河南地区对非煤矿山开采管控亦愈发严格，尤其严查矿 山超产行为。山西、河南的矿山整顿行动仍然在继续，环保和安 全检查也并未放松。国产矿供应短时难以改善，市场实际流通的 矿石量极为有限。进口方面，几内亚矿报价区间为 70-71 美元/ 干吨，相比于上周下降 1 美元/干吨，价格有所松动。雨季后几 内亚矿的发货量处在恢复之中，12 月开始签订 2025 年长单和确 定一季度矿石价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices showed a strong trend, but there was a high - level callback on the Friday daytime session. The market expects short - term supply shortages and strong year - end demand in the energy storage sector. Regulatory measures and potential restarts of production may affect the market. The report predicts short - term callback pressure on the disk and suggests light - position short - selling opportunities [2][3][16] Summary by Directory 1. Limitation of Positions, Increase of Fees, Slower Inventory Reduction, and Lithium Prices Peaking and Falling - From November 17th to 21st, lithium salt prices were strong. LC2512 and LC2601 closing prices increased by 4.3% and 4.2% respectively to 91,000 yuan/ton. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices rose by 8.4% and 8.6% to 92,300 and 89,900 yuan/ton. Lithium hydroxide prices also followed the upward trend [2][13] - The market was affected by supply expectations, demand support, regulatory measures, and potential restarts of production. SMM data showed an increase in lithium carbonate production and a decrease in inventory, with a slower inventory accumulation slope [3][16] 2. Review of Weekly Industry News - PMET submitted a feasibility study report for the CV5 lithium project, revealing the largest lithium spodumene resource in the Americas, with a planned annual production of about 800,000 tons of lithium spodumene concentrate [17] - Sigma suspended its Brazilian lithium mine in the third quarter, reduced production, and plans to complete expansion by the end of 2026, increasing the total capacity to 520,000 tons/year [17] - Liontown Resources' first lithium spodumene auction price was 16.7% higher than the current spot price [18] - Hunan Yueneng started the construction of a 20,000 - ton battery recycling and a 30,000 - ton lithium carbonate project [18] 3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Continuous Increase in Lithium Concentrate Prices - The spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 83 dollars/ton to 1,089 dollars/ton, a year - on - year increase of 8.3% [14] 3.2 Lithium Salt: Intensified Game of Restart Disturbances - The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot showed an upward trend, and the profit of lithium salt plants and relevant price differences also changed [14][16] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Continued Strength of Ternary and Lithium Cobalt Oxide - The prices of downstream materials such as ternary materials, lithium cobalt oxide, and lithium iron phosphate showed an upward or stable trend [14] 3.4 Terminal: High - Growth Maintenance of Power Battery Installation - The power battery installation volume in China maintained high growth, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles also showed positive trends [47][48][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, there are more negative factors in the market. It is recommended to shift from an oscillatory mindset to a moderately bearish one. The probability of the introduction of growth - stabilizing policies at the end of the year is increasing, and the stock market's performance has suppressed the bond market. The bond market may turn from oscillation to a downward trend, and long - term bonds will be weaker than short - term ones [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook - **This Week's Trend Review**: From November 17 - 23, treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. Influenced by factors such as changes in US interest - rate cut expectations, geopolitical risks, stock - market trends, and policy news, the bond market showed different trends on each trading day. As of November 21, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.448, 105.855, 108.440, and 115.590 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.002, + 0.005, + 0.050, and - 0.480 yuan compared to the previous weekend [11] - **Next Week's Outlook**: Policy expectations are likely to rise. The long - term bonds may change from oscillation to a weaker trend. It is necessary to closely monitor policy - expectation changes. The stock - market decline may not necessarily drive up treasury bonds. Long - term bonds will perform worse than short - term ones, and the 30Y - 10Y spread is expected to widen slightly [12][13][14] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds - **Primary Market**: This week, 76 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 4865.29 billion yuan and a net financing of 3431.71 billion yuan, down 2403.37 billion yuan and 471.51 billion yuan respectively from last week. The issuance of local - government bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased compared to last week [17] - **Secondary Market**: Treasury - bond yields showed a differentiated trend. As of November 21, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by - 0.17bp, + 0.56bp, + 0.81bp, and + 1.20bp respectively. The 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y spreads all widened [20] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Prices, Trading Volume, and Open Interest**: Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. As of November 21, the trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased by 16241, 34025, 46731, and 37790 lots respectively compared to last week, while the open interests of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year decreased, and that of 30 - year increased slightly [31][34] - **Basis and IRR**: The current basis levels of each variety are not high. With the increasing risk of bond - market adjustment, it is recommended to moderately focus on short - hedging strategies, especially using TL for short - hedging [38] - **Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads**: As of November 21, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures changed compared to last week. If the bond market weakens next week, the inter - delivery spreads may widen slightly [42][43] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - The central bank's open - market operations achieved a net injection of 1354 billion yuan this week, and a net injection of 1234 billion yuan including treasury - cash. As of November 21, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week changed compared to last week. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased compared to last week [48][49][53] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - As of November 21, the US dollar index rose 0.87% to 100.1527, the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds dropped 8BP to 4.06%, and the 10Y Sino - US Treasury bond yield spread was inverted by 223.9BP [58] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial - product prices and agricultural - product prices both declined. As of November 21, the Nanhua Industrial Index, Metal Index, and Energy - Chemical Index decreased compared to last week, and the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits also decreased [63] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - **Unilateral Strategy**: The bond market may turn from oscillation to a downward trend. It is recommended to focus on short - term short - selling strategies for long - term varieties [18] - **Cash - and - Carry Strategy**: It is recommended to moderately focus on short - hedging strategies, especially for long - term varieties [18] - **Yield - Curve Strategy**: As the market weakens, the yield curve will steepen. It is recommended to moderately focus on strategies such as shorting TL and going long on 3T [18] - **Inter - delivery Strategy**: The current inter - delivery spreads are oscillating and may widen slightly in the next few days [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia's supply has shown strong resilience, and its crude oil exports have remained stable this year. A short - term decline in domestic refinery processing volume will increase crude oil export demand. The sanctions imposed by the US and Europe on major Russian oil companies since October may lead to a short - term reduction in buyers' purchases of Russian oil. In the long run, if sanctions do not escalate further, trade flows may gradually recover with the establishment of new sales channels. However, if sanctions continue to escalate and some buyers withdraw, the limited potential buyer group will restrict trade flow space, increasing the risk of Russian supply disruptions. Currently, due to high uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation, the market has not priced in the scenario of the US severely restricting Russian oil exports, so the risk premium of oil prices is relatively mild, and it is difficult to drive oil prices to rise continuously [4][58] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Russia's Domestic Energy Facilities Attacked, Crude Oil Export Demand Rises - In the first ten months of this year, Russia's exports of crude oil and petroleum products decreased slightly, mainly due to lower exports in the first half of the year compared to last year. The average seaborne crude oil export volume was about 3.46 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 50,000 barrels per day. Since July, due to attacks on refineries, the crude oil processing volume has decreased passively, and the crude oil export volume has been significantly higher than the seasonal level. In contrast, the decrease in processing volume has led to a continuous decline in petroleum product exports, reaching the lowest level since 2021, with an average of 2.28 million barrels per day in the first ten months, a year - on - year decrease of 160,000 barrels per day [13] - The seaborne crude oil trade flow is relatively stable, with buyers mainly concentrated in India, China, and Turkey, with seaborne export volumes of 1.76 million barrels per day, 1.18 million barrels per day, and 330,000 barrels per day respectively. Russia's seaborne crude oil exports to the EU and G7 countries have basically stopped since 2024. The trade flow of petroleum products is more dispersed, with Africa, Asia, and Turkey being the main export markets, and a small amount is exported to South America [15] - Since August, the number of drone attacks on Russian energy facilities has increased significantly, including refineries, pumping stations, and ports. The decrease in refinery processing volume has had a negative impact on petroleum product exports. Port safety is also crucial for supply stability, and any threat to port operations will increase the risk of supply disruptions [18][19] 3.2 Outlook for Russia's Crude Oil Supply and Trade Flow under the Escalation of Sanctions by the US and Europe 3.2.1 The US and Europe Expand Sanctions on Russian Oil Companies, and the Impact of Ship Sanctions Is Limited - In October 2025, the UK and the US successively announced sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, and their major subsidiaries. The EU also passed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia. The potential "secondary sanctions" risk may lead some buyers to reduce their purchases of Russian crude oil to avoid being sanctioned [24][25] - Russia's oil supply is concentrated in four major oil companies, accounting for 77%. Currently, the top four Russian oil companies have all been included in the US sanctions list. After Gazpromneft and Surgutneftegaz were sanctioned in January, their direct crude oil exports decreased significantly. Some new exporters that entered the market in May this year and Rosneft took over the export business, indicating that the market has found ways to adapt to sanctions and maintain trade flows [26] - The US, Europe, and other countries have continuously expanded sanctions on the "shadow fleet" transporting Russian oil, but the actual effect is limited. Although some ships continue to transport Russian oil after being sanctioned, the proportion of Russian crude oil transported by the "shadow fleet" has shown a downward trend [28][29] 3.2.2 New Obstacles for Buyers to Purchase Russian Oil, Focus on the Establishment of New Sales Channels - Indian and Turkish companies are highly sensitive to US sanctions. After the US imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, Russia's exports to India and Turkey may face short - term volume reduction risks. India may have about 1 million barrels per day of Russian oil supply facing volume reduction or the need to change sellers, and maintaining imports depends on the establishment of new "compliant" sales channels [33][34][35] - Turkey imports about 300,000 barrels per day of Russian crude oil, facing a high risk of volume reduction. The EU has stopped most of its imports of Russian seaborne crude oil and petroleum products, but there are still some pipeline exports to Hungary and Slovakia, which may face increasing interruption risks in the future [41][43] 3.2.3 The Space for Russia to Adjust Its Crude Oil Trade Flow Again May Be Limited - If India or Turkey cannot maintain Russian crude oil imports through new sales channels, Russia may face difficulties in finding new buyers. The relatively high logistics cost of transporting Russian oil to China and the competition from other sensitive oils may limit the trade flow adjustment space. If the potential buyer group is limited, the risk of a decline in Russian supply will further increase [45][48] 3.3 Petroleum Products: The 18th Round of EU Sanctions Awaits Implementation, and the Regional Mismatch of Diesel Supports Crack Spreads - The EU's 18th round of sanctions against Russia will ban the import of petroleum products refined from Russian crude oil starting from January 21, 2026. The EU's new regulations on diesel imports may lead to changes in the diesel trade flow, and the EU may rely more on imports from the Middle East and the US in the future. This may intensify the competition for compliant resources and support crack spreads [54][57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The US September non - farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, and the prospect of a December interest rate cut is unclear. The employment market has not significantly deteriorated, and the urgency for a rate cut is not strong. The December interest rate meeting is more likely to result in no rate cut and a dovish stance on the future rate - cut path [3][4][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US September Non - farm Payrolls and Interest Rate Outlook - **Employment Data**: The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than expected, and the labor participation rate slightly rebounded to 62.4%. Hourly wage growth was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year, with the month - on - month rate down from the previous value [3][10] - **Industry Breakdown**: New jobs mainly came from education and healthcare (59,000), leisure and hospitality (47,000), construction (19,000), and retail (14,000). Sectors such as transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, manufacturing, and the federal government continued to lay off workers [3] - **Interest Rate Meeting Outlook**: As the last employment report before the December interest rate meeting, the data's lag reduces its reference value. Market expectations for a rate cut have slightly increased [4][37] 3.2 Investment Recommendations - With a cumulative 50bp rate cut in 2025 and no further acceleration of the economic slowdown, most Fed officials prefer to pause the rate - cut rhythm. Precious metals will continue to consolidate, US Treasury yields will oscillate at recent highs, the US dollar index will oscillate with a slight upward bias, and high - valuation pressure on US stocks will be prominent, with short - term volatility remaining high [5][42]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US September non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, leading to significant changes in market risk preferences and various asset price fluctuations. The market is in a high - volatility state, and different industries face different situations and investment opportunities [2][16]. - In the bond market, November is mainly in a volatile state, but the probability of a decline in December is relatively high. In the commodity market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee hinted at not supporting a rate cut in December. Fed Governor Cook warned of private credit risks. The US September non - farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. The short - term market volatility is difficult to reduce, and there may still be a decline [14][15][16]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Goolsbee is worried about premature and significant rate cuts. The US September non - farm payrolls data made the market's expectation of a December rate cut slightly increase, but it is still less than 50%. Gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, and there is a risk of correction [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple Fed officials maintained a hawkish stance. The US September non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with new employment exceeding 100,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The dollar index is expected to oscillate at a high level [22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Vice - Premier He Lifeng emphasized promoting foreign trade quality improvement. A - shares had a volume - shrinking adjustment. Market rumors of new real - estate stimulus policies may have a positive impact on the economy and prices if implemented. It is recommended not to add long positions in the short term [25][26][28]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The November LPR remained unchanged. The central bank conducted a 3000 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The probability of a decline in December is relatively high. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the oscillation range [30][31][32]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA weekly export sales report met expectations. US bio - fuel policy uncertainty increased, and CBOT soybeans declined. It is expected that soybean meal prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases and South American weather [33][34]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Trump administration is considering delaying the reduction of import bio - fuel incentives. Malaysian palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 decreased by 20.5% month - on - month. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [35][36]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Wens Co., Ltd. shut down 7 pig farms for capacity adjustment. In the short - term, it is recommended to short LH2601 and LH2603, and in the long - term, pay attention to the opportunity to lay out LH2607 and far - month contracts at low prices [37][38]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 442,500 tons week - on - week. Although the current destocking is good, the subsequent inventory pressure is still large, and steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate [39]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch production rate slightly decreased, and inventory decreased. The rice - flour price difference is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [41][42][43]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of northern ports increased, and the inventory of southern ports decreased. Corn prices are expected to remain high and oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The power plant's winter storage is coming to an end. Coal prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, and attention should be paid to actual temperature and daily consumption in December [46]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - US Steel announced a $3 billion expansion project. Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to policy changes [47]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The "Chengdu Declaration" was released. Polysilicon prices are expected to return to an oscillation state, and attention should be paid to interval trading opportunities [48][49][51]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The "anti - involution" of silicone drove up the industrial silicon futures price, but it is actually a negative factor. It is recommended to stop profiting from short positions in a timely manner [52][53][54]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots first increased and then decreased. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short term and wait and see for arbitrage and internal - external trading [55][56]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased. LME zinc oscillated upward. It is recommended to manage positions well in the short term and pay attention to buying opportunities on dips in the medium term [57][59][60]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - China's refined nickel imports decreased significantly in October. Nickel prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's supply adjustment [61][62][63]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Liontown's lithium concentrate auction price was higher than the spot price. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fees and limits of lithium carbonate futures. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short term [64][65][66]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price increased by 1.51% on November 20. The CEA price has a strong upward driving force [67][68]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - US natural gas inventory decreased by 14 Bcf week - on - week. Nymex natural gas faces a downward risk [69][70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices were relatively strong. It is recommended to adjust in the short term and try to go long at low prices in the long term [71][72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained stable. PTA is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory at the end of the year. It is recommended not to chase the rise unilaterally and to lay out long positions in far - month contracts and 5 - 9 positive spreads at low prices [73][75][76]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was weakly adjusted. It is expected that the subsequent market will oscillate [77]. 2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - CMA CGM and AD Ports will expand the Khalifa Port terminal. The container freight rate market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities for the 02 contract at the lower edge of the oscillation range [78][79][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's latest interest rate meeting minutes show that most officials tend not to cut rates, meaning a December rate cut is highly unlikely, and the market risk appetite remains volatile while the US dollar rebounds [1][12][19]. - Against the backdrop of the Ministry of Finance's early allocation of part of the 2026 budget for urban affordable housing projects, the Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher with reduced trading volume, but the market style is chaotic and risk - averse trading persists. It is recommended to reduce long positions [2][22]. - The bond market failed to break through the upper limit of the trading range and had adjustment pressure. With the stock market strengthening slightly, Treasury bond futures declined. It is advisable to view the market from a volatile perspective [3][25]. - The EPA's re - emphasis on increasing RVO has boosted the rebound of edible oils, but the short - term supply pressure remains unrelieved. For industrial silicon, it is advisable to take profit on previous long positions and look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [4]. - EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and oil prices declined with a reduction in risk premium [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - NVIDIA's Q3 revenue accelerated by 62% year - on - year, and its Q4 revenue guidance also exceeded expectations. However, the Fed's internal officials have significant differences on a December rate cut, and the market's rate - cut expectation remains low. It is recommended to wait for the release of non - farm payroll data to see the market's new direction [11][12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed's meeting minutes show serious internal differences. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, but in the short term, there is a lack of direct positive factors for a new wave of upward movement. It is expected that gold prices will fluctuate widely around $4000, with increased long - short competition [14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Trump administration is trying to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine. The Fed's meeting minutes show that most officials tend not to cut rates, so a December rate cut is unlikely. The US dollar index is expected to rebound [16][17][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Finance has advanced the allocation of part of the 2026 budget for urban affordable housing projects. The Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher with reduced trading volume, and technology stocks underperformed. It is recommended to reduce long positions instead of chasing the market [21][22][23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 310.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The bond market failed to break through the upper limit of the trading range and had adjustment pressure. With the stock market strengthening slightly, Treasury bond futures declined. It is recommended to view the market from a volatile perspective [24][25][26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - USDA reported that private exporters sold 330,000 tons of soybeans to China, and a 30,000 - ton shipment of Argentine soybean meal cleared customs in China. It is expected that futures prices will likely remain range - bound, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and weather conditions in South American production areas [27][28][29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The import cost of 24 - degree palm oil in South China has risen significantly. The EPA's re - emphasis on RVO has boosted the rebound of edible oils, but the short - term supply pressure remains. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance level of 9000 yuan/ton [30][31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The workload of construction machinery increased in October, and the retail and wholesale of passenger cars from November 1 - 16 showed different trends. Steel prices are in a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to view them from a volatile perspective [32][33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - The price of jujubes in Xinjiang has slightly declined. The futures market is volatile. It is recommended to operate with caution and pay attention to upstream procurement [35][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch has slightly decreased, and inventory has been reduced. It is expected that the price difference between 01 futures and rice flour will fluctuate, and it is advisable to conduct band trading [37][38]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot corn market shows a pattern of strength in the south and weakness in the north. In the short term, the near - month contracts may not experience a significant decline. It is recommended to wait and see, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies for 03 and 05 contracts when the situation becomes clear [39][40][41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The 2026 medium - and long - term coal contracts have been signed, with the supply guarantee ratio and long - term contract price basically the same as in 2025. It is expected that coal prices will continue to fluctuate around 800 yuan [42]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The production and sales of air conditioners in December are expected to decline. The fundamentals of iron ore remain stable with a volatile trend. Although the supply pressure is high and port inventories are increasing, the risk of a sharp decline is reduced [43]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Tangrenshen terminated a fixed - increase project. In the short term, it is advisable to short - sell LH2601 and LH2603 on price rallies, and in the long term, pay attention to the opportunity to build long positions for LH2607 and distant - month contracts at low prices [44][45]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - From January to October 2025, solar power generation increased. The polysilicon spot price depends on the game between policy and fundamentals. It is expected to return to a volatile market, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [46][48]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Organic silicon manufacturers plan to jointly reduce production and adjust prices. Although the price of industrial silicon has risen, the reduction in organic silicon production is negative for industrial silicon. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [49][52][53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market shows a downward trend, and the trading volume of domestic lead contracts has decreased. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies and remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and cross - border trading [54]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market is volatile, and domestic social inventories have decreased. It is recommended to manage positions well for long positions, continue to hold positive - spread arbitrage positions, and manage positions for cross - border arbitrage [55][56]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A nickel - related transaction has occurred. The nickel market is fundamentally weak and technically bearish. In the short term, the price may continue to decline or rebound depending on production cuts. In the medium term, attention should be paid to Indonesia's supply - contraction actions [57][58][59]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sigma has adjusted its lithium mine production. The lithium carbonate market has strong short - term support, but the demand is expected to weaken from the end of the year to Q1 2026. It is not recommended to chase long positions, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies can be considered [61][62][63]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and oil prices declined. It is expected to maintain a short - term volatile trend [64][65]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt has decreased, and the supply has tightened. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term [66][67]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - China's methanol port and production enterprise inventories have decreased, but the port inventory decline is due to low arrivals. It is recommended to hold short positions and add short positions on price rebounds, with a profit - taking target around 2000 yuan/ton [68][69]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - South Korea's pure benzene exports from November 1 - 10 showed certain trends. The styrene market is affected by external factors, and it is recommended to view it from a volatile perspective in the short term [70][71]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has been slightly adjusted. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to whether supply reduction will occur due to profit compression [72][73][74]. 3.2.21 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Germany will impose a 23% tax on Chinese cross - border small packages. The container freight market is currently weak, but with the approaching long - term contract season, the price may be supported. It is recommended to view the market from a volatile range perspective and look for short - long opportunities for the 02 contract on price dips [75][76].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market volatility remains high, and it is recommended to wait and see for the market to choose a direction. Gold is in a volatile trend, and there is a risk of decline in the short - term. The US dollar index is expected to weaken. The bond market will continue to fluctuate. For various commodities, they are mostly in a state of shock, and investment decisions should be made according to specific market conditions [14][17][25][42] - Large technology companies are expanding their AI infrastructure through complex financing structures, but the market is cautious. The market is concerned about the information of the next Fed Chairman. If the candidate is dovish, it may boost the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts and improve risk appetite [13] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump has selected a candidate for the next Fed Chairman, and Besent plans to submit a recommendation to Trump after Thanksgiving. Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Anthropic have established a strategic partnership. Anthropic will buy $30 billion worth of Azure computing power, Microsoft will invest $5 billion, and NVIDIA will invest $10 billion. The market is cautious about large technology companies' expansion of AI infrastructure, and it is recommended to wait and see [12][13][14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 11 - month NAHB housing market index is 38. Fed's Barkin agrees with Powell that a December interest - rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. Gold prices first declined and then rebounded, breaking through the $4000 mark. The Fed's cautious attitude towards monetary policy suppresses market sentiment. There is still room for long - short game on whether to cut interest rates in December. Gold is in a short - term volatile and weak trend, and there is a risk of decline [15][16][17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The unemployment rate of 16 - 24 - year - old labor force (excluding students) in October is 17.3%. Beijing supports the issuance of eligible consumer infrastructure REITs. Affected by Sino - Japanese relations and the weakening of US AI guidance, the domestic market is sold off. It is recommended to reduce long positions [18][19][20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump threatens to revoke ABC's TV license and says he is interviewing candidates for the next Fed Chairman. The latest ADP employment data shows that the US labor market is weakening, the market risk appetite is decreasing, and the US dollar is weakening. It is expected that the most tightening stage of liquidity may have passed [21][22][23] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 407.5 billion yuan, with a net investment of 370 million yuan. The bond market continues to fluctuate narrowly. The power to break the deadlock in the bond market is insufficient, and it will continue to fluctuate. It is appropriate to short - sell at high positions. The inter - period spread may widen slightly [25][26][27] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of November 15, 2025/26, 325 sugar mills in India have started crushing, with an increase of 181 year - on - year. The ISO predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season. China's sugar imports in October are 750,000 tons, exceeding market expectations. It is expected that the import volume will decrease in November - December. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [28][29][31] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Palm oil industry experts are optimistic about the plantation industry. China's palm oil imports in October are 220,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%. The market is bullish on palm oil prices due to supply shortages and biodiesel demand. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing long positions and pay attention to the 9000 pressure level [32][33] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased slightly. Brazil's soybean sowing is 69% complete. NOPA members' soybean crushing volume in October reached a record high. The cost of domestic imported soybeans has increased, but the increase in China's procurement of US soybeans reduces the possibility of domestic soybean shortages. The soybean meal futures price is weaker than the external market. It is recommended to pay attention to China's actual procurement of US soybeans and South American production expectations [34][36][37] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - The price of jujubes in Xinjiang has been adjusted downwards. The futures price of jujubes has risen for two consecutive days. The acquisition of jujubes in Xinjiang is coming to an end. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the upstream acquisition situation [38][39] 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In October, the production of China's four major household appliances decreased year - on - year, and the export of steel plates decreased year - on - year. The price of steel has rebounded in shock. The contradiction in the fundamentals of finished steel has not been fundamentally alleviated. The upward space of steel prices is limited. It is recommended to treat steel prices with a shock mentality [40][42][43] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and cassava starch makes the substitution advantage of corn starch slightly appear. The profit of deep - processing enterprises has declined slightly, but the downstream acceptance of price increases has increased. The 01 futures price difference has been repaired. It is recommended to conduct band operations [44][46] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The domestic corn price is consolidating at a high level. The price in the Northeast is stable, the price in North China is stable, and the price in the sales area has increased slightly. The spot price is firm, and the futures price has fallen after rising. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the grain sales progress in North China and the wheat auction situation [46][47] 2.8 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the East China market is stable and strong. The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the downstream coking profit is deteriorating. The spot sentiment has回调, and the coal price increase has narrowed. The supply recovery is slow. The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [48][49] 2.9 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The inventory of steam coal in Beigang has increased slightly. The increase in coal prices may end, and it may fluctuate at a high level after the inventory turns around. The actual thermal power consumption in November is average. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual winter consumption in December to determine whether coal prices will rise again [49][50] 2.10 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Genmin has obtained approximately A$25.7 million in financing for the African Baniaka iron ore project. Iron ore prices are in a shock market. The supply is high, and the downstream steel production is declining moderately. It is expected that the molten iron will decline at a rate of about 10,000 tons per week from mid - November to mid - December. It is expected to continue the shock market [51] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 17, the LME 0 - 3 lead showed a discount of $16.88/ton. The LME inventory decreased, and the cash spread increased. The Shanghai lead continued to decline in shock. It is recommended to short at high positions in the short - term and wait and see for arbitrage and internal - external trading [52][53] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 17, the LME 0 - 3 zinc showed a premium of $104.97/ton. The LME inventory increased, and the cash spread decreased. The Shanghai zinc may enter a high - level shock adjustment stage. It is recommended to hold short positions in the short - term, pay attention to medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities, and short - term internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities [54] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Rainbow Mining is considering a joint - venture copper mine with Newmont in Papua New Guinea. Freeport plans to resume large - scale production of its Indonesian copper mine in the second quarter of next year. The short - term macro factors are negative for copper prices, but the fundamentals provide support. It is recommended to lay out long positions at low positions in the medium - term and wait and see for arbitrage [55][57][58] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Hunan Yueneng starts the construction of a 20,000 - ton battery recycling and 30,000 - ton lithium carbonate project. The lithium carbonate market has strong short - term support, but the power demand is expected to weaken from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year. It is not recommended to chase long positions. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high positions after the demand weakens and project resumption is clear [59][60][61] 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Ramu's Q3 production report shows an increase in nickel and cobalt production and sales. The nickel market is technically weak, and the high - level inventory of pure nickel continues to accumulate. The price of nickel may continue to be weak in the short - term or repair the valuation according to the reduction of smelting production. It is necessary to pay attention to Indonesia's supply - contraction measures in the medium - term [62][63][64] 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API US crude oil inventory has increased. Oil prices have rebounded, possibly affected by the expected short - term sanctions on Russian supply. The US inventory level is still relatively low. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [65][66][67] 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On November 18, the CEA closing price was 61.76 yuan/ton, up 1.53%. The new quota allocation plan may reverse the carbon market supply - demand structure, and the CEA price has strong upward momentum. Pay attention to the release of demand [67][68] 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (LLDPE) - The polyethylene social sample inventory has decreased slightly. The PE fundamentals are lackluster. If there is a rebound, it is recommended to short. If there is no further negative news, the price will fluctuate in the future. It is recommended to wait and see [69] 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market is weakly sorted. The PVC futures price is down, and the inventory is high. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is suppressed. It is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts and pay attention to long - term layout opportunities for far - month contracts after the price drops excessively [70][72] 2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Shipping companies have jointly opened a new route from the Far East to the Red Sea. The spot market is weak, and the supply pressure in December is high. The 02 contract lacks the power to rise sharply, but with the approaching of the long - term contract season, the shipping companies' price - holding agreement may strengthen. It is recommended to treat the current market with a shock - range mentality [73][74]