1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to increased domestic conflicts over illegal immigration in the US [11][12]. - US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season, with increased volatility [16][17]. - Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback after a continuous sharp rise [20]. - The bond market is experiencing a short - term rebound, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. - The stock index long - position strategy should be continued [23][24]. - Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term as supply is at a high level and downstream restocking has ended [25][26]. - Steel prices are expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [31]. - Palm oil is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [35]. - The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [37][38]. - The domestic sugar market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term due to seasonal supply pressure and limited demand [42]. - Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [47]. - Copper prices are likely to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [51]. - Lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [53][54]. - Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [57]. - Lithium carbonate prices are likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and a bullish strategy is recommended with attention to position control and risk management [60][61]. - Tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of supply recovery expectations and consumption recovery [65]. - Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. - EU carbon prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. - Oil prices are expected to be supported by short - term geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions [71][72]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to see a mild recovery in processing fees around the Spring Festival [76]. - The container shipping index is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Europe is estimated to need $1 trillion to restructure its defense industry. The shooting of a US citizen by ICE has intensified domestic conflicts over illegal immigration, causing the dollar index to weaken. The Trump administration is expected to maintain a tough stance on illegal immigration, and market volatility will remain high. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [9][11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US in January was 56.4, reaching a five - month high. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The US economy shows resilience, and the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short - term. The market is worried about the Fed's independence, and US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season [13][14][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US is expected to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base on Greenland is located. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The New York Federal Reserve Bank conducted a "rate check" on the US dollar/yen exchange rate. Precious metals continued to rise strongly on Friday, reaching a new high. The market is trading on the safe - haven and de - dollarization needs caused by the tense situation between the US and Europe. The sharp rise of the yen and the fall of the dollar after the US and Japan jointly signaled to intervene in the foreign exchange market boosted the precious metals. However, the short - term market is dominated by sentiment and funds, and the risk is increasing. Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback [18][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 125 billion yuan, with a net investment of 38.3 billion yuan. The bond market continued to strengthen, mainly due to the alleviation of previous concerns. However, there are still long - term negative factors, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The CSRC issued a guidance on the performance comparison benchmark for public funds. Due to strong bullish expectations, funds flowed into small - cap stocks, causing market differentiation. The regulatory authorities are expected to take stricter and more precise measures to limit excessive speculation, and the market is likely to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to continue to hold the long - position strategy for the stock index [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market remained stable. The supply in some areas increased slightly, while the downstream restocking ended, and the market sentiment declined. Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [25][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The global crude steel output in 2025 was 1.849 billion tons. In mid - January 2026, the daily output of key steel enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. Before the Spring Festival, steel prices are expected to be volatile and may rebound slightly. It is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [27][29][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The EU plans to gradually phase out soybean biofuels. The establishment of the Southeast Asian Sustainable Aviation Fuel Council. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased, and the estimated volume for the next week is higher. The palm oil market is supported by inventory reduction and Ramadan expectations, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [32][34][35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly soybean export sales reached the highest level of the year. The domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume increased, and it is expected to remain high. The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [36][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports increased. The sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil decreased in the second half of December. The domestic sugar market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [39][41][42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The import of Indian cotton yarn decreased, while the import of polyester - cotton blended yarn increased. The EU's clothing import rebounded in November 2025, and the import from China increased. The US cotton export signing reached a new high, but the export progress is still behind. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [43][44][47]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chilean contractor protests blocked access to mines. Tibet Julong Copper's second - phase project was put into operation. The Chilean Mining Association warned that it will take several years for copper supply to increase. The short - term macro factors support copper prices, but the fundamental factors may suppress price increases. Copper prices are likely to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [48][50][51]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount. The production of primary lead was stable, the profit of secondary lead refineries narrowed, and the consumption of lead batteries was weak. The social inventory increased, and lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [52][53][54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A gold mine in Mexico was temporarily shut down. The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and MMG's zinc ore output in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased. The zinc concentrate port inventory increased, the smelting profit improved slightly, and the demand was affected by multiple factors. Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [55][56][57]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The retail and wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in the first 18 days of January 2026 decreased year - on - year. Lithium carbonate prices rose sharply last week. The demand is strong, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a bullish strategy with attention to position control and risk management [58][60][61]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The first domestic satellite computing power module was launched. The LME tin spread was at a discount, and the inventory increased. The import of tin concentrate in December increased year - on - year. The supply is expected to increase in 2026, but there are uncertainties. The demand is weak, and tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term [62][63][65]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The port logistics of the Indonesian Qing Shan Industrial Park was suspected of monopoly. The nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is expected to be adjusted, and the global primary nickel gap is expected to be more than 100,000 metric tons. The raw material price rose, and the demand for nickel salt increased. Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of the EUA main contract decreased. The EU carbon price remained high and volatile last week. The CoT data helped boost the market. The carbon price is expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The production of a Kazakhstani oil field was delayed due to a power failure and export problems. The number of US oil rigs increased. The oil price rose on Friday, supported by the risk of supply disruptions and the increase in diesel cracking spreads [70][71][72]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories continued to rise. The polyester raw material price rose strongly, and the bottle - chip factory quotation increased. The market trading atmosphere was fair, and the downstream was cautious. The industry operating rate decreased, and the inventory pressure was transferred smoothly. The processing fee is expected to recover mildly around the Spring Festival [73][75][76]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Wildfires and rough seas restricted the operation of some ports in Chile. The short - term market is weak, and the European - line futures are expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to whether the index will be higher due to container dumping and late ship departures [77][78].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Based on technical indicator signal analysis of futures, different trends are shown in various sectors. In the precious metals sector, silver, platinum, and palladium show bearish signals, while gold remains volatile. In the non - ferrous sector, zinc, tin, lithium carbonate, and aluminum alloy are bullish, and Shanghai lead is bearish, with the rest being volatile. In the black and shipping sector, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, coking coal and coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are bullish, and European line container shipping is volatile. In the energy and chemical sector, LPG is bullish, and many varieties in the chemical sector such as rubber series, ethylene glycol, methanol, and PTA are bullish. In the agricultural products sector, peanuts and logs are bullish, and sugar, eggs and other varieties are bearish. In the stock index futures, CSI 1000 is bullish, CSI 500 is volatile, and SSE 50 and CSI 300 are bearish. In the treasury bond futures, 2 - year treasury bonds are bullish, and 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds are mainly volatile [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - Precious metals: Silver, platinum, and palladium show bearish signals, and gold shows a volatile signal. Non - ferrous metals: Zinc, tin, lithium carbonate, and aluminum alloy show bullish signals, Shanghai lead shows a bearish signal, and the rest of the varieties are mainly volatile [8][9]. - For Shanghai copper, it maintained high - level volatility this week. The weekly line is bullish, and the daily line shows a balance between bulls and bears. If it continues to rise at the beginning of next week and the MACD forms a golden cross, it is expected to break through; otherwise, continue to wait and see [11]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Hot - rolled coils, wire rods, coking coal and coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon show bullish signals, and the rest of the varieties are mainly volatile. European line container shipping shows a volatile signal [17][18]. - For rebar, it has been in a downward channel with a gradually rising center of gravity since October 2021. This week, it showed a "V" shape and is currently in low - level volatility. The MACD is expected to form a golden cross above the zero - axis, and the price may rebound within the range, but it does not form a strong trend [21]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sector, LPG shows a bullish signal, and the rest of the varieties are volatile. In the chemical sector, rubber series, ethylene glycol, offset printing paper, methanol, PTA, p - xylene, PVC, propylene, pulp, staple fiber, and bottle chips show bullish signals, and the rest of the varieties are volatile [26][27]. - For PTA, the weekly line has broken through the adjustment center, with a long - position arrangement of moving averages and a golden cross in MACD, indicating short - term upward momentum. Pay attention to the pressure in the range of 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton [31]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - Peanuts and logs show bullish signals, sugar, eggs, live pigs, and soybean meal show bearish signals, and the rest of the varieties are mainly volatile [38][39]. - For sugar, the weekly line is in a downward channel. Recently, it has been running along the lower edge of the channel, and the daily - line MACD shows a death cross. Be vigilant about the risk of decline [44]. 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - CSI 1000 futures show bullish signals, CSI 500 futures show volatile signals, and SSE 50 and CSI 300 futures show bearish signals [50][51]. - The weekly line of IC CSI 500 futures rose 5.45% this week, with a long - position arrangement of moving averages and the Bollinger Bands expanding. The daily line shows that the price continues to rise above the MA5, indicating that the upward momentum still exists [53][54]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - 2 - year treasury bond futures are mainly bullish, and 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are mainly volatile [57][61]. - The T 10 - year treasury bond futures have a slightly elevated center of gravity this week. The daily line shows that the price has stood above the MA60 and MA120, and the MACD maintains a golden cross. The price is running near the upper track of the Bollinger Bands. It is expected to be volatile or slowly repair upwards. Pay attention to the support at 107.06 - 107.39 and the resistance at 108.5 - 108.7 [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (January 19 - 23, 2026), the trading activity in the commodity options market slightly declined, with the average daily trading volume at 8.15 million lots and the average daily open interest at 8.62 million lots, showing a week - on - week change of - 8.60% and - 0.35% respectively. Investors are recommended to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties. [1][7] - The underlying assets of commodity options mainly rose this week. Some commodity options' implied volatility increased on a weekly basis. There were different expectations of market trends in different varieties based on volume PCR and open - interest PCR data. [2][17][18] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Commodity Options Market Activity - The trading activity in the commodity options market slightly declined this week. The average daily trading volume was 8.15 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 8.62 million lots, with a week - on - week change of - 8.60% and - 0.35% respectively. - Actively traded varieties included silver (810,000 lots), styrene (660,000 lots), and PTA (440,000 lots). Five varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, with significant growth in p - xylene (+165%), log (+163%), and synthetic rubber (+154%). The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were crude oil (-66%), soybean No. 2 (-51%), and staple fiber (-51%). - The varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal (600,000 lots), cotton (560,000 lots), and glass (500,000 lots). The varieties with a rapid week - on - week increase in open interest were tin (+65%), industrial silicon (+46%), and caustic soda (+43%). [1][7] 2. This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options 2.1. Underlying Asset Price Movements - The underlying assets of commodity options mainly rose this week. The varieties with high weekly increases included lithium carbonate (+24.16%), silver (+11.04%), and synthetic rubber (+9.44%); the varieties with high weekly declines included glass (-3.54%), live pigs (-3.46%), and caustic soda (-3.04%). [2][17] 2.2. Market Volatility - Some commodity options' implied volatility increased on a weekly basis. 49 varieties' current implied volatility was above the 50th percentile of the past year. The varieties with a large week - on - week increase in implied volatility included synthetic rubber (+22.91pct), gold (+8.63pct), and ethylene glycol (+8.34pct). The varieties with implied volatility at a historical high included synthetic rubber, styrene, nickel, and plastic, and investors were advised to beware of unilateral risks and focus on short - volatility opportunities. The varieties with implied volatility at a historical low included peanuts and rapeseed meal, where buying options were more cost - effective. [2][17] 2.3. Options Market Sentiment - Currently, the volume PCR of lithium carbonate and propylene is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bearish expectation in the market. The volume PCR of cotton, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, and iron ore is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bullish expectation in the market. The open - interest PCR of silver and lithium carbonate is at a historical high, indicating a high level of bearish sentiment in the market. The open - interest PCR of ethylene glycol, soybean meal, caustic soda, and palm oil is at a one - year low, indicating an accumulation of bullish sentiment in the market. [2][18] 3. Key Data Overview of Major Varieties This chapter mainly presents the key data of major varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data on various varieties can be found on the Dongzheng Finoview official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/). [22] 3.1. Energy No specific data summary provided, but relevant charts and data sources are mentioned, including those related to trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR of crude oil. [23][25][27] 3.2. Chemicals - **PTA**: Relevant charts and data sources are provided for trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR. [28][29][35] - **Caustic Soda**: Similar to PTA, relevant charts and data sources for trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR are presented. [37][38][39] - **Glass**: The same as above, with relevant charts and data sources for various indicators. [43][44][45] - **Soda Ash**: Relevant information on trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR is provided. [49][50][52] 3.3. Precious Metals Relevant information on trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR of silver is presented, along with data sources. [58][59][61] 3.4. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Information on trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR, as well as data sources, is provided. [66][68][70] - **Manganese Silicon**: Similar to iron ore, relevant information and data sources are given. [73][74][75] 3.5. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Information on trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR, along with data sources, is presented. [81][84][85] - **Aluminum**: Similar to copper, relevant information and data sources are provided. [87][88][90] 3.6. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Information on trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR, along with data sources, is provided. [93][95][98] - **Palm Oil**: Similar to soybean meal, relevant information and data sources are given. [100][101][102] - **Cotton**: Information on trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR, along with data sources, is presented. [108][109][111]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, all Treasury bond futures contracts closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising by 1.24%, 0.14%, 0.09%, and 0.02% respectively. The basis of each variety widened. The sentiment slightly recovered, driving the strength of each Treasury bond variety. With the continuous policy support since the beginning of the year and the overall stable economic operation, the short - term upward momentum is strong, and the core factors such as intraday technology and basis are still dominated by bulls [6]. - In the domestic commodity market last week, there were more rising varieties. The top risers were lithium carbonate, styrene, silver, PTA, synthetic rubber and other precious metals and some energy - chemical products, while the biggest decliners were caustic soda, glass, and coking coal, with a decline of more than 3%. Commodity factors generally performed strongly, with the average return of factors reflecting long - term price trends exceeding 1%, and the long - short strength ratio of the change in the positions of leading members in the position - related factors also having a return of more than 1% last week. The two - year value factor and some volatility factors also showed strong performance. Due to external market disturbances, the volatility of commodity factor returns is increasing. Investors are advised to focus on several types of commodity factors with long - term expected return capabilities [26][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Quantitative Strategy - **Market Review**: The 30 - year main contract rose 1.24%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.14%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.09%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.02% last week. The basis of each variety widened. The 10 - year CTD bond was 250018, with a basis of about 0.05 yuan on the 23rd, slightly lower than the seasonal level; the 30 - year CTD bond was 210005, with a basis of 0.35 yuan on the 16th, lower than the seasonal level [6]. - **Factor Sharpe Ratio**: For the 10 - year Treasury bond, the Sharpe ratios of the basis factor, risk asset, and member position in 2025 are 1.68, 1.93, and 0.59 respectively. For the 5 - year Treasury bond, the Sharpe ratios of high - frequency capital flow, intraday volume - price, risk asset, member position, and basis factor in 2025 are 2.51, 2.27, 1.71, 1.33, and 0.78 respectively. For the 2 - year Treasury bond, the Sharpe ratios of high - frequency capital flow, basis factor, intraday volume - price, and member position in 2025 are 2.45, 1.82, 1.59, and 0.82 respectively [6][18][19][20]. 3.2 Commodity CTA Factor and Strategy Performance - **Commodity Factor Performance**: Last week, there were more rising varieties in the domestic commodity market. The top risers were lithium carbonate, styrene, silver, PTA, synthetic rubber and other precious metals and some energy - chemical products, while the biggest decliners were caustic soda, glass, and coking coal, with a decline of more than 3%. Commodity factors generally performed strongly, with the average return of factors reflecting long - term price trends exceeding 1%, and the long - short strength ratio of the change in the positions of leading members in the position - related factors also having a return of more than 1% last week. The two - year value factor and some volatility factors also showed strong performance. The volatility of commodity factor returns is increasing [26][29]. - **Tracking Strategy Performance**: - CWFT strategy: Annualized return of 9.3%, Sharpe ratio of 1.60, Calmar of 1.06, maximum drawdown of - 8.81%, recent one - week return of 0.62%, and year - to - date return of 0.83% [27]. - C_frontnext & Short Trend strategy: Annualized return of 11.2%, Sharpe ratio of 1.71, Calmar of 1.67, maximum drawdown of - 6.72%, recent one - week return of - 0.48%, and year - to - date return of - 0.07% [27]. - Long CWFT & Short CWFT strategy: Annualized return of 12.1%, Sharpe ratio of 1.36, Calmar of 0.92, maximum drawdown of - 13.07%, recent one - week return of 0.45%, and year - to - date return of 0.71% [27]. - CS XGBoost strategy: Annualized return of 5.4%, Sharpe ratio of 0.90, Calmar of 0.28, maximum drawdown of - 19.39%, recent one - week return of - 0.68%, and year - to - date return of - 3.16% [27]. - RuleBased TS Sharp - combine strategy: Annualized return of 11.6%, Sharpe ratio of 1.52, Calmar of 1.41, maximum drawdown of - 8.26%, recent one - week return of - 1.04%, and year - to - date return of - 0.59% [27]. - RuleBased TS XGB - combine strategy: Annualized return of 11.4%, Sharpe ratio of 1.99, Calmar of 2.54, maximum drawdown of - 4.49%, recent one - week return of - 0.63%, and year - to - date return of - 1.92% [27]. - CS strategies, EW combine strategy: Annualized return of 12.6%, Sharpe ratio of 1.80, Calmar of 1.71, maximum drawdown of - 7.38%, recent one - week return of 0.30%, and year - to - date return of 0.91% [27]. - **Strategy Position Details**: Each strategy has specific position details such as the number of position varieties, net position, total position return, winning rate, and performance of individual varieties last week, as well as the number of position varieties, net position, number of varieties to be rolled over, and total turnover capital ratio this week [34][36][38][40][42][44]. - **Best - Performing Strategies**: The best - performing strategy last week and year - to - date was CWFT. The equal - weighted composite strategy of the above cross - sectional strategies has an annualized return of 12.6%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.80, a Calmar of 1.71, a maximum drawdown of - 7.38%, a recent one - week return of 0.30%, and a year - to - date return of 0.91% [47].

周度报告-黄金 地缘政治风险增加，黄金大涨再创新高 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | 黄金：震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2026 1 | 年 | 月 | 25 日 | 伦敦金大涨 8.5%至 4987 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率升至 4.22%， 通胀预期 2.31%，实际利率微升至 1.91%，美元指数跌 1.8%至 97.6， 标普 500 指数跌 0.35%，人民币小幅升值，沪金折价收窄。 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 贵 金 属 贵金属集体大涨再创历史新高，美欧局势紧张推动资金流入避险 资产，特朗普威胁对欧洲八国加征关税以施压收购格陵兰岛，丹 麦养老金表示要退出美债市场，美国出现股债汇三杀的情况，市 场对美元的不信任成都进一步加剧，加拿大总理卡尼在达沃斯的 讲话则表明地缘政治局势将持续，国际秩序的转换将继续扰动市 场。虽然特朗普后续态度软化，表示不会武力收购格陵兰岛，并 且取消了关税威胁，但也不会对格陵兰岛支付费用，这种明抢豪 夺的操作加大了市场的去美元化交易，地缘政治进展成为市场主 导因素。经 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿石价格下跌， 氧化铝供给维持高位 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2026 1 | 年 | 月 | 25 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★ 几内亚矿石价格下跌，氧化铝供给维持高位 原料：上周国内矿石价格持稳，山西 58/5 品位矿石到厂含税价 格 665 元。国产矿的供应始终处于偏紧状态，对价格形成一定支 撑，但难以改变下行趋势。进口方面，阿拉丁（ALD）几内亚 矿指数价格已从 66 美元/干吨跌至 61.5 美元/干吨。几内亚各矿 山运行稳定，矿山进一步提升产能。期内新到矿石 448.2 万吨， 其中新到几内亚资源 359.5 万吨，澳大利亚资源 88.7 万吨。几内 亚至中国的 Cape 船市场参考报价 22 美元/吨。 有 色 金 属 氧化铝：上周氧化铝现货价格下行。阿拉丁（ALD）北方综合 价格在 2580-2640 元/吨，较上周下跌 10 元/吨；国产加权指数 2616.8 元/ ...

周度报告—碳酸锂 资金预期高昂，下游产业利润承压 [Table_Summary] ★资金预期高昂，下游产业利润承压 有 色 金 属 矿端消息不断，矿盐价格走势一致，相互支撑上移。锂盐端，1 月底至 2 月部分锂盐厂有年度检修计划，但受锂价攀升、需求旺 盛影响，检修亦有调整的可能。本周碳酸锂产量环比-388 吨，样 本总库存环比-783 吨。需求端淡季不淡的特征边际走强。虽然本 周盘面大幅上涨后，下游成交情况较上周明显走弱，但受刚需补 库限制，下游材料厂维持逢低补库。考虑到下游原料库存天数仍 旧较低（9.6 天），预计春节备库需求仍存。碳酸锂价格上涨至 此，核心问题仍在于价格的向下传导。我们测算以当前磷酸铁锂 电芯平均价格水平来看，二梯队企业对碳酸锂价格的承受水平约 在 15.6 万元左右。而对终端新能源汽车整车企业而言，由于铜 铝等其他原材料成本亦在上涨，因此若碳酸锂价格继续上涨至 20 万，则或导致头部新能源整车企业也无净利润。对于储能而 言，地区差异较大，内蒙等高收益率省份（IRR 10%以上）对储 能电芯价格不敏感，但部分省份容量补贴不高、套利价差较低， 本身 IRR 仅 7-8%，若电芯价格上涨 0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical risks are rising, which is the dominant factor in the market. The US dollar is under short - term downward pressure, and asset prices are biased towards safe - haven assets [2][34][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite has cooled. Most stock markets have fallen, and most bond yields have rebounded. The US Treasury yield has risen to 4.22%. The US dollar index has dropped 1.8% to 97.6. Most non - US currencies have appreciated. Gold prices have soared 8.5% to $4987 per ounce. The VIX index has rebounded to 16. The spot commodity index has closed up, and Brent crude oil has risen 0.7% to $68 per barrel [1][9] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Most global stock markets have fallen. The S&P 500 has dropped 0.35%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 0.84%. Geopolitical risks have led to a decline in US stocks, and the subsequent easing of tensions has only slightly alleviated market sentiment. Geopolitical factors remain a major market influence. The Japanese central bank has maintained its policy rate but raised economic and inflation expectations. The Chinese stock market has shown high - level oscillations [10][11][13] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Most global bond yields have rebounded, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising to 4.22%. Developed - country bond yields face upward risks. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield has slightly declined to 1.828%, and the Sino - US interest rate spread inversion has widened to 239bp. The domestic bond market has continued its oscillating trend [14][18][21] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index has dropped 1.8% to 97.6, and most non - US currencies have appreciated. Offshore RMB has risen 0.26%, the euro has risen 1.94%, the pound has risen 1.93%, the yen has risen 1.53%, the Swiss franc has risen 2.88%, the Australian and New Zealand dollars have risen over 3%, and the Canadian dollar, real, rand, ringgit, peso, etc. have risen over 1% [24][26] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold has soared 8.5% to $4987 per ounce, and silver has broken through the $100 per ounce mark. Brent crude oil has risen 0.7% to $68 per barrel. The commodity spot index has closed up [27][28] 3.3 Hot - Spot Tracking - Geopolitical risks have significantly increased, and the US dollar has weakened. Trump's actions and attitudes have led to continued geopolitical instability, and the market's de - dollarization trading has intensified in the short term [29][34] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: US November durable goods orders - Tuesday: China's January - February industrial enterprise profits - Wednesday: Bank of Japan interest rate meeting minutes, Bank of Canada interest rate meeting - Thursday: Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, US December core PCE - Friday: Eurozone Q4 GDP, US December PPI [36]

短线延续反弹，长期依旧偏空 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货继续反弹 周度报告-国债期货 国 债 期 货 本周（01.19-01.25）国债期货继续反弹。周一，国债期货高开， 但随着股市拉升，国债期货随即走弱，偏弱震荡。周二，股市 上涨乏力，财政部和发改委的两场新闻发布会内容未超市场预 期，国债期货全线上涨，TL 涨幅较大。周三，上午股市拉升， 国债期货短暂上涨后小幅走弱，午后国债期货再度明显走强， TL 涨幅最大。周四，受海外风险偏好升温的影响，早盘国债震 荡略偏弱。午后债市窄幅震荡，尾盘央行再度表态今年降准降 息还有一定空间，收益率小幅下行。周五，股市震荡走强，盘 中股债跷跷板行情较为明显，国债期货小幅收涨。尾盘市场对 MLF 利率下降的预期上升，利率下行。截至 1 月 23 日收盘，两 年、五年、十年和三十年期国债期货主力合约结算价分别为 102.416、105.875、108.200 和 112.290 元，分别较上周末变动 +0.016、+0.070、+0.135 和+1.120 元。 ★短线延续反弹，长期依旧偏空 债市反弹应未结束。下周消息面较为平静；政府债供给量有所 下降，央 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-23 中国央行表态继续实施适度宽松货币政策 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国消费者支出连续两个月稳步增长 美国最新的 11 月核心 pce 同比符合预期，通胀压力继续可控， 美元指数维持震荡。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） Mysteel 五大品种库存周环比增加 10.07 万吨 综 本周五大品种库存再度累积，随着需求的季节性下滑，和产量 回升，建材累库较为明显。卷板整体小幅去库，需求仍有韧性。 短期矛盾尚不突出，仍建议反弹逢高套保。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行行长潘功胜：今年降准降息还有一定的空间 报 央行呵护流动性的态度较为明确，但预计短期内降准或是大幅 增加买债额度的必要性继续下降。 有色金属（铜） 韩国锌业称美国冶炼厂废料堆含 30 亿美元金属价值 短期宏观因素可能会加剧价格波动，基本面短期因素对铜价形 成抑制，预计盘面短期宽幅震荡可能性更大，策略上短线转观 望。 能源化工（苯乙烯） 苯乙烯周度产量数据 多头增仓意愿强烈，苯乙烯盘面大幅上扬 | 1、 金融要闻及点评 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1. ...