Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints - Market risk appetite is fluctuating, with most global stock markets rebounding, most bond yields rising, and the US dollar index falling. The market is affected by factors such as the end of the US government shutdown, data uncertainties, and changes in tariff policies [1][11] - Liquidity crunch occurs repeatedly, leading to increased market volatility. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut has changed, and asset prices are sensitive to liquidity changes [33][37] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market This Week Overview - Market risk appetite is wavering. Most stock markets rebound, most bond yields rise, the US dollar index drops 0.31% to 99.3, most non - US currencies appreciate, gold rebounds 2.1% to $4081 per ounce, the VIX index rises to 19.8, the spot commodity index closes higher, and Brent crude oil drops 0.1% to $63.74 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rebound. The S&P 500 in the US rises 0.08%, while the Shanghai Composite Index in China falls 0.18%. The end of the US government shutdown, data uncertainties, and changes in tariff policies affect the market. In China, the weak economic data in October puts pressure on the stock market [10][11] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rise, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield reaching 4.14%. The end of the US government shutdown and potential fiscal deficit increase pressure on long - term bonds. Developed countries' monetary policies are on hold, and the domestic bond market in China is volatile [14][19][22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index drops 0.31% to 99.3, and most non - US currencies appreciate. Offshore RMB rises 0.38%, the euro rises 0.47%, the British pound rises 0.08%, the Japanese yen drops 0.74%, the Swiss franc rises 1.39%, and some other currencies also show gains [25][27][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Gold rebounds 2.1% to $4084 per ounce, affected by expectations of the Fed's policy shift. However, after the end of the US government shutdown and hawkish remarks from Fed officials, it gives back some gains. Brent crude oil drops 0.1% to $63.74 per barrel, and the supply - demand pattern for oil remains weak [29][32] 3. Hotspot Tracking - Liquidity crunch occurs repeatedly, causing increased market volatility. The market experiences a significant turnaround from the beginning to the end of the week due to data uncertainties and hawkish signals from the Fed [33][37] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: Japan's Q3 GDP, US November New York Fed Manufacturing Index - Tuesday: US November NAHB Housing Market Index - Wednesday: UK and Eurozone October CPI - Thursday: US weekly initial jobless claims, November Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US September non - farm payrolls - Friday: Japan's October CPI, US November University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final value [39]

周度报告-国债期货 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货窄幅震荡 本周（11.10-11.16）国债期货窄幅震荡。周一，周末公布的 10 月通胀数据超预期，早盘现券利率上行，但由于科技股震荡调 整，国债期货震荡转涨，曲线走平。周二，市场消息面较为平 静，成交相对清淡。上午股市震荡走弱，国债期货小幅拉升， 午后股市低位震荡，市场担忧费率新规落地，国债期货转而走 弱。周三，央行昨日晚间公布的 Q3 货政报告表述整体中性，股 市中光伏、科技板块表现偏弱，红利板块走强，国债期货小幅 上涨。周四，市场消息面平静，股市持续上涨，锂电、有色等 板块涨幅靠前，国债期货震荡下跌。尾盘公布的 10 月金融数据 多数表现偏弱，但债市反应不大。周五，早盘统计局公布的 10 月经济数据普遍不及预期，股市震荡略偏弱，债市小幅走强； 午间股市跌幅扩大，但债市较为担忧买断式逆回购缩量而下 跌，尾盘债市担忧情绪有所缓解。截至 11 月 14 日收盘，两 年、五年、十年和三十年期国债期货主力合约结算价分别为 102.446、105.850、108.390 和 116.070 元，分别较上周末变动- 0.026、-0.070、-0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "oscillation" [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, global stock markets rose initially and then fell, with significant fluctuations. Overseas, the potential end of the US government shutdown and unannounced economic data have created uncertainty. Domestically, the A - share market saw a recovery in pharmaceutical and consumer stocks and an adjustment in technology stocks, but current fundamental pressures are increasing. The market is expected to experience intensified high - level oscillations and a higher probability of a downward trend. Attention should be paid to Sino - Japanese relations, the possibility of real - estate tax implementation, and the impact on export - chain enterprises due to Tesla's requirements [2][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week View and Macro Key Event Overview 3.1.1 Next - Week View - The market's high - level oscillations will intensify, and the probability of a downward trend is increasing. Three factors need attention: Sino - Japanese relations, the possibility of real - estate tax implementation, and the impact on export - chain enterprises from Tesla's requirements [2][10] 3.1.2 This Week's Key Event Focus - On November 10th, central enterprises completed over 3 trillion yuan in fixed - asset investment in the first three quarters, with about 40% in emerging industries. The State Council issued 13 measures to promote private investment [11][12] - On November 11th, 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds were fully disbursed. The central bank released the Q3 monetary policy report, emphasizing a moderately loose monetary policy [13][15] - On November 12th, overseas investors' holdings of A - shares exceeded 3.5 trillion yuan [16] - On November 13th, in October, M2 increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year [17] - On November 14th, China's economic indicators in October declined. The State Council meeting studied the in - depth implementation of "two major" construction work [18][20] 3.2 One - Week Market Quotes Overview 3.2.1 Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From November 10th to 14th, global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 0.41%, with frontier markets (+1.20%) > developed markets (+0.43%) > emerging markets (+0.29%). The South African stock market led the world with a 5.2% increase, while the Taiwan, China stock market had the worst performance, falling 1.88% [21] 3.2.2 Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - During the same period, Chinese equity assets showed mixed performance, with Hong Kong stocks > A - shares > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2044 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.4 billion yuan from last week. Among A - share broad - based indices, the micro - cap stock index had the best performance, rising 3.10%, while the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index had a decline of 3.85% [24] 3.2.3 Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - This week, global GICS primary industries showed mixed performance. The healthcare sector led with a 3.94% increase, while the consumer discretionary sector performed poorly, falling 1.19%. In the Chinese market, healthcare led with a 3.27% increase, and information technology lagged with a 4.27% decline [27] 3.2.4 Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC Primary Industries - Among A - share CITIC primary industries this week, 20 rose (17 last week) and 10 fell (13 last week). The consumer services sector led with a 4.81% increase, and the communication sector led the decline with a 4.90% decrease [28] 3.2.5 Weekly Overview of China A - Share Styles: Large - Cap Value Prevailed - This week, value stocks outperformed growth stocks, and the market - capitalization style favored large - cap stocks [33] 3.2.6 Futures Basis Overview - Information presented through relevant charts, but no specific data summarized in text [36] 3.3 Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview 3.3.1 Broad - Based Index Valuation - Provided PE and PB data for various broad - based indices this week, including their eight - year percentiles, values at the beginning of the year, and changes during the year [44] 3.3.2 Primary Industry Valuation - Provided PE and PB data for various primary industries this week, including their eight - year percentiles, values at the beginning of the year, and changes during the year [45] 3.3.3 Broad - Based Index Equity Risk Premium - The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased slightly this week [46][51] 3.3.4 Broad - Based Index Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 8.73% and up to 9.23% in 2026; the CSI 500's 2025 rate was adjusted down to 27.88% and 2026 down to 20.68%; the CSI 1000's 2025 rate was adjusted down to 28.62% and 2026 up to 25.56% [52] 3.4 Liquidity and Fund Flow Tracking 3.4.1 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year yield declined, the 1 - year yield increased, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 99.3, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.10 [60] 3.4.2 Trading - Type Fund Tracking - This week, the average daily northbound trading volume decreased by 17.8 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 12.6 billion yuan [64] 3.4.3 Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs - There were 29 on - exchange ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 29 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 39 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 300 million, the share of those tracking the CSI 500 increased by 120 million, the share of those tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 40 million, and the share of those tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 2.9 billion [67][72] 3.5 Tracking of Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data 3.5.1 Supply - Side: Crude Steel Production Contracted - Information presented through relevant charts, such as the national blast - furnace operating rate and domestic crude steel daily output [74] 3.5.2 Consumption - Side: Real - Estate Transactions Remained Sluggish - Information presented through relevant charts, including the transaction area of first - hand and second - hand houses in major cities, and land transaction area [82] 3.5.3 Inflation Observation: Producer Goods Prices Stabilized, and Agricultural Product Prices Rebounded - Producer goods prices gradually stabilized, and agricultural product prices continued to recover [92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market rebounded slightly this week. The average daily trading volume was 7.75 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 10.26 million lots, with a week - on - week change of +6.85% and +2.72% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][6]. - Most of the underlying futures of commodity options rose this week. The varieties with higher weekly increases include silver (+7.54%), lithium carbonate (+6.15%), and apple (+5.86%); the varieties with higher weekly decreases include glass (-5.41%), eggs (-4.60%), and red dates (-4.17%) [2][14]. - This week, the implied volatility of most commodity options in each sector increased on a weekly basis. For varieties with implied volatility at a high level in the past year, investors should be vigilant against unilateral risks and consider short - selling volatility opportunities; for varieties with implied volatility at a low level, the cost - performance of buying options is relatively high [2][14]. - Different varieties show different market sentiment in terms of trading volume PCR and open interest PCR, reflecting the market's expectations of rising or falling [2][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Option Market Activity - This week, the average daily trading volume of actively traded varieties mainly includes silver (700,000 lots), glass (680,000 lots), and soda ash (520,000 lots). The varieties with significant trading volume growth are tin (+268%), LPG (+126%), and alumina (+122%); the varieties with obvious trading volume decline are polysilicon (-61%), industrial silicon (-61%), and lithium carbonate (-40%) [1][6]. - The varieties with high average daily open interest this week are glass (1 million lots), soybean meal (870,000 lots), and soda ash (810,000 lots). The varieties with rapid week - on - week growth in average daily open interest are p - xylene (+54%), styrene (+42%), and asphalt (+41%) [1][6]. 3.2 This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options - **Underlying price changes**: The underlying futures of commodity options mainly rose this week. The varieties with high weekly increases include silver (+7.54%), lithium carbonate (+6.15%), and apple (+5.86%); the varieties with high weekly decreases include glass (-5.41%), eggs (-4.60%), and red dates (-4.17%) [2][14]. - **Market volatility**: Most sectors' commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. 21 varieties' current implied volatility is above the 50% quantile of the past year. Varieties with implied volatility at a high level in the past year include silver, methanol, asphalt, apple, and gold; varieties with implied volatility at a low level include ferromanganese, alumina, rubber, and corn [2][14]. - **Option market sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of pulp, ferrosilicon, and cotton is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a decline; the trading volume PCR of gold, aluminum, lead, and PTA is at a low level in the past year, indicating a concentrated bet on an increase. The open interest PCR of silver, p - xylene, lithium carbonate, and soybean meal is at a historical high, showing a high level of bearish sentiment; the open interest PCR of methanol, plastic, urea, and palm oil is at a low level in the past year, showing a bullish sentiment [2][14]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties This chapter mainly shows the key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data of other varieties can be found on the Dongzheng Fanci website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19]. - **Energy**: Data on option total turnover, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil, LPG, asphalt, fuel oil, etc. are presented [15][20]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Data on option total turnover, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [15][27]. - **Caustic soda**: Similar data for caustic soda are shown [15][36]. - **Glass**: Data related to glass options are presented [15][42]. - **Soda ash**: Key data of soda ash options are provided [15][48]. - **Precious metals**: Data on option total turnover, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silver are shown [15][54]. - **Ferrous metals**: - **Iron ore**: Data related to iron ore options are presented [15][61]. - **Ferromanganese**: Similar data for ferromanganese are provided [15][69]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: - **Copper**: Data on copper options are shown [15][75]. - **Aluminum**: Key data of aluminum options are provided [15][84]. - **Agricultural products**: - **Soybean meal**: Data related to soybean meal options are presented [15][90]. - **Palm oil**: Similar data for palm oil are provided [15][97]. - **Cotton**: Key data of cotton options are shown [15][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices have a clearer lower limit, and it is more cost - effective to go long on dips. Polysilicon is expected to return to a volatile market, with the main contract operating between 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 200 yuan/ton week - on - week to 9020 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9500 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8850 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon increased by 830 yuan/ton to 54045 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon remained flat at 53200 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 Organic Silicon "Anti - involution", Silicon Wafer Enterprises Jointly Support Prices - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures main contract of industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. Southwest China may have further furnace shutdowns during the dry season. The social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.06 million tons. The balance sheet shows a slight inventory build - up in November and a de - stocking of about 1 million tons in December, but "anti - involution" in organic silicon may affect December's de - stocking [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon increased. The industry reached a consensus on production cut and price support. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 73.62%, the weekly output was 48,700 tons (a 1.67% increase), and the inventory was 42,100 tons (a 3.22% decrease). The success of "anti - involution" depends on production cut implementation [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract of polysilicon fluctuated. The spot mainly delivered previous orders. Considering the dry season, the production schedule in November is expected to drop to 115,000 tons. As of November 13, the factory inventory was 267,000 tons (an increase of 0.8 million tons). The spot price depends on the game between policy and fundamentals. It is expected to remain flat in November [13] - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of silicon wafers was volatile. After a price cut on Tuesday, several enterprises jointly raised prices on Thursday. The production cut is not obvious, with a production schedule of 57 - 58GW in November. As of November 13, the inventory was 18.42GW (an increase of 0.9GW). The price is expected to fluctuate [14] - **Battery Cell**: The price of battery cells continued to decline. Indian demand shifted, and domestic demand also decreased. As of November 10, the inventory was 5.81GW (an increase of 1.96GW). The production schedule in November is 57.4GW. The price may loosen further [15] - **Component**: The component price was basically stable. Some high - power component quotes increased. The demand declined, and the production schedule in November is expected to be 44.4GW (a decrease of 1GW). There are concerns about a significant decline in December's production schedule [16] 3.3 Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts. The price needs to break through 10,000 yuan/ton to increase supply. It is more cost - effective to go long on dips [3] - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is expected to remain stable in November. The futures may return to a volatile market, with the main contract operating between 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [3] 3.4 Hot News Summaries - **Silicon Wafer Enterprises Jointly Support Prices**: Several silicon wafer enterprises jointly raised prices to support "anti - involution" competition. The actual transaction depends on downstream acceptance [18] - **Positive Results in Photovoltaic Industry Self - regulation**: The self - regulation of the photovoltaic industry has achieved positive results. Product prices are gradually stabilizing, and the situation where polysilicon prices are below cost has improved [18] - **Statement on Online False News**: The association is promoting industry self - regulation and "anti - involution" work. Online rumors are false information [19] 3.5 Industry Chain High - frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: It includes data on spot prices, weekly production in different regions, social inventory, and sample factory inventory [21][24][26][28] - **Organic Silicon**: It includes data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production [32][34] - **Polysilicon**: It includes data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [36][40] - **Silicon Wafer**: It includes data on spot prices, profit calculations, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [41][43][44] - **Battery Cell**: It includes data on spot prices, profit calculations, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [49][51][54][55] - **Component**: It includes data on spot prices, profit calculations, finished product inventory, and enterprise monthly production [57][59][60][61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (11/10 - 11/14), lithium salt prices increased with rising positions. The closing prices of LC2511 and LC2601 rose by 6.5% and 6.1% respectively, and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 5.9%. Lithium hydroxide prices also edged up [1]. - The main reason for the significant increase in the lithium price center last week was concentrated on Monday. Currently, the position volume remains high, and on Friday, some long - position holders took profits, causing the market to oscillate at a high level. The core logic for long - position holders to increase positions at high levels is the strong - reality trading under continuous strong demand and accelerated inventory reduction, as well as the expected cost increase of Jiangxi mica mines after paying the mining right transfer income. There are large differences in the market's expectations for the resumption of production rhythm. Attention should be paid to potential resumption information after the publicity period [2][15]. - In the short term, the lithium price is expected to remain oscillating at a high level, and range operation can be maintained. In the medium term, one can look for opportunities to short at high levels after the demand weakens month - on - month and the project resumption rhythm becomes clear [2][15][16] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Chile's October Shipment and Market Supply Game - In October, Chile's lithium salt shipments and Australian ore exports increased marginally after the lithium price rose. The market's game on supply has intensified [2][15] 2. Week - on - Week Industry News Review - Ganfeng Lithium: The joint development of the PPGS lithium salt lake project with LAR in Argentina has made key progress, and the "Environmental Impact Assessment Report" has been obtained. The project plans to submit a large - scale investment promotion system application in the first half of 2026. The project has about 15.07 million tons of LCE proven + controlled resources, with a designed annual production capacity of about 150,000 tons of LCE, to be built in three phases [17]. - Brazil's lithium concentrate exports in October decreased by 85% month - on - month, mainly because Sigma Lithium, the largest lithium spodumene producer in the country, did not export during this period. However, exports this year have increased by about 54% year - on - year [17]. - Core Lithium has increased the ore reserves of Grants and cut the project's capital expenditure by 35 - 45 million Australian dollars. The revised plan also advances the production time of the first batch of ore and increases the Grants ore reserves by 33% [18]. - Rio Tinto has shelved its controversial Jadar lithium project in Serbia, which involves an investment of $2.95 billion and will enter the "maintenance" state [18]. - The pilot program for conditional exemption of road transportation of power and energy - storage lithium batteries has been officially launched, which will effectively release compliant transportation capacity and solve the contradiction between the "zero - inventory" production model and the shortage of transportation capacity [19] 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Spot is Strong - The spot price of lithium concentrate is strong, with the spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) reaching $1,006/ton on 11/14/25, a month - on - month increase of 8.5% [13][20] 3.2 Lithium Salt: Intensified Game of Resumption Disturbance - The game of resumption disturbance in the lithium salt market has intensified. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,545 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11 tons, mainly contributed by salt lake production, while the production of mica and spodumene decreased marginally. The weekly inventory was 120,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,481 tons. The capacity utilization rate of salt factories is only 60%. After the increase in spodumene port inventory, domestic production is expected to increase marginally [2][15] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Ternary and Lithium Cobalt Oxide Continue to be Strong - Ternary and lithium cobalt oxide continue to be strong. In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%. The prices of downstream intermediate products such as ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide have shown an upward trend. For example, the spot average price of ternary material 523 increased by 4.4% month - on - month, and the spot average price of ternary material 622 increased by 9.5% month - on - month [10][13] 3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles in September Reached 50% - In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%. The installed capacity of power batteries maintained high growth, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles also showed a good growth trend [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The financial data in October was mostly below expectations, with the household sector deleveraging again and the M1 growth rate turning downward. However, the bond market had fully anticipated this, and it remained in a volatile range [2]. - Multiple Federal Reserve officials made hawkish statements, leading to a liquidity crunch in the market, a significant decline in risk appetite, and a short - term rebound of the US dollar [13]. - In the commodity market, different products showed various trends. For example, the strong reality and weak expectations coexisted in the lithium carbonate market, and the methanol market had a reduced probability of extreme market conditions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Beth Hammack, emphasized high inflation and the need to maintain restrictive policies. This led to a liquidity crunch, a decline in risk appetite, and a short - term rebound of the US dollar [13]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials were more cautious about future interest rate cuts due to the non - release of economic data. Their overall hawkish statements increased the yield of US Treasury bonds, reduced market risk appetite, and led to greater long - short games in technology stocks, dragging down the index performance [16]. - Investment advice: The US stocks are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, and a mostly bullish approach should be maintained [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In October, M2 increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and the A - share market was booming, but the poor financial data in October and the real - estate adjustment might limit the stock market's rebound space [18][19]. - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among long positions in various stock indices [20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The financial data in October was weak, which was beneficial to the bond market. However, the bond market had already anticipated this, and it remained in a narrow - range volatile state. The stock - bond seesaw effect was present, but the stock market was unlikely to drive the bond market to fall continuously [22]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The NOAA reported that La Nina might last until the Northern Hemisphere winter. The USDA's weekly export sales report met expectations, and CONAB predicted record - high soybean production and exports in Brazil's 25/26 season [24][26]. - Investment advice: Closely monitor the USDA's monthly supply - demand report, especially the adjustments to US soybean yield and exports [26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's palm oil replanting target for small farmers was unlikely to be achieved. Indonesia will start B50 road tests in early December and plans to implement the B50 policy in the second half of next year, which may reduce palm oil exports [27][28]. - Investment advice: The B50 policy will support market sentiment in the short term, but the high inventory will limit the upside of the 01 contract. Consider long positions in the 05 contract [29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The CAI lowered India's cotton production forecast for the 25/26 season. The international cotton market was weak, and the market had a bearish expectation for the upcoming USDA report [30][32]. - Investment advice: The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term (13300 - 13800). Wait for a pull - back to go long in the long term [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The purchase price of red dates in Xinjiang decreased slightly. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 fell, and the supply was increasing while the demand was weak [35][36]. - Investment advice: Wait and see until the harvest is completed, and focus on the price negotiation and purchase progress in the production area [36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - A major shareholder of Muyuan released 64.2 million shares from pledge. The inventory accumulation continued, but whether it would lead to a weak peak season was uncertain. The price might stabilize and rebound with the entry of second - fattening pigs, but the price decline pressure in the fourth quarter was still large [37]. - Investment advice: The near - term contracts may strengthen with the increase in curing demand. Sell on rallies for the 1 and 3 contracts and consider long positions in the far - term contracts on dips [38]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The spot market of imported Australian steam coal was stable. The port coal price was firm, but the pit - mouth price decreased. The 2026 long - term contract price is expected to be 675 yuan, and the coal price is expected to remain high in winter but face resistance at 900 yuan [39]. - Investment advice: The port price is expected to be stable at a high level, and the price may fluctuate around 800 yuan. Monitor the long - term contract negotiation in December and temperature changes [39]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Usiminas' iron ore production and sales increased in the third quarter. The fundamentals were weak, with high hot - rolled coil inventory and weak year - end orders. The steel mills' demand for raw materials was under pressure [40]. - Investment advice: Given the weak fundamentals, the raw material side is still under pressure, but the rate of decline is slow [40]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - India imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese alloy and non - alloy hot - rolled steel plates. The steel price rebounded slightly, but the overall demand was average, and the high inventory of hot - rolled coils limited the price rebound [41][45]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the short term [46]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn and corn starch in starch sugar products increased slightly. The starch price followed the raw material price, and the futures price spread between rice and starch strengthened slightly [47][49]. - Investment advice: The 01 futures price spread has recovered to some extent. Expect short - term fluctuations and consider band trading [49]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of processing enterprises decreased. The spot and futures prices were strong, but there might be selling pressure later. The 07 and 09 contracts are expected to be bullish in the long term [49][50]. - Investment advice: There is uncertainty in the new - season supply - demand. The spot and futures prices may fall later. Wait for a pull - back to go long in the 07 and 09 contracts [50]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory decreased, and the cash - to - three - month spread widened. The SHFE lead price fluctuated. The delivery volume will be reflected in the warehouse receipts, and the deep - decline possibility is low before the warehouse receipt risk is resolved [52]. - Investment advice: For the industry, consider short - selling at high levels. Observe the virtual - to - real ratio of the 12 and 01 contracts. For arbitrage, wait and see. Consider positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread was at a premium, and the domestic zinc inventory decreased. The short - term price fluctuation of SHFE zinc followed the macro trend, and the LME inventory change should be monitored [56]. - Investment advice: For the short - term, observe if the short - selling trend is established and consider short - selling at high levels. Consider positive arbitrage in the medium - term. Be cautious with short - term foreign - domestic reverse arbitrage [56]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory decreased slightly. The raw material price was expected to be stable and strong, and the refined nickel inventory accumulation slowed down [57]. - Investment advice: The market has a consistent expectation of nickel oversupply. Wait and see in the short term and consider long positions after the inventory accumulation inflection point [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Rio Tinto shelved the Jadar lithium project in Serbia. The strong reality and weak expectations coexisted. The inventory decline accelerated in the short term, but the supply may increase in the future [59][60]. - Investment advice: Expect a strong and volatile market in the short term and consider range trading. Look for short - selling opportunities at high levels in the medium - term when the demand weakens and the project restart progress is clear [61]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price decreased slightly, and the trading volume remained high. The rigid demand during the compliance peak supported the carbon price, but the overall supply - demand structure was loose [62]. - Investment advice: The CEA has strong short - term support [63]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - China's methanol production and capacity utilization decreased slightly this week. The probability of extreme market conditions for the 01 contract decreased significantly [64]. - Investment advice: Holders of short positions can take profits at around 2100 yuan/ton. If the price rebounds without a fundamental reversal, short positions can be re - established [6]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The supply of caustic soda increased, and the demand was stable. The low - concentration caustic soda price was stable, and the high - concentration caustic soda price increased slightly [66]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of caustic soda have little change, with overall supply - demand being relatively loose. Expect short - term fluctuations [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price weakened slightly. The futures price fluctuated, and the inventory decreased slightly. The cancellation of India's BIS certification has limited positive effects [69][70]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for near - term contracts. Consider long - term layout for far - term contracts after a significant price decline [71]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The futures price of pulp rose, and the market focused on the reduction of low - price warehouse receipts after December [72]. - Investment advice: The pulp futures are relatively strong in the near term. Monitor the warehouse receipt registration. If a large number of warehouse receipts are registered, the upward risk of the futures price will increase [73]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - China's styrene production and capacity utilization increased this week. The price of styrene rebounded, mainly due to the concentrated short - covering of crowded short positions [74][75]. - Investment advice: Monitor whether short positions will take profits in advance. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash manufacturer's inventory changed little this week. The futures price rebounded due to cost increases. The near - term contracts are relatively strong, but the far - term contracts may be under pressure with new capacity coming online [77]. - Investment advice: The near - term contracts have some support, and the downward space depends on coal price fluctuations and new capacity release. Adopt a bearish approach in the medium - term [78]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass manufacturer's inventory changed little this week, with regional differences. The futures price rebounded due to the strength of soda ash [79]. - Investment advice: The market has intense long - short games and large price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [79]. 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The Port of Long Beach will develop a new container terminal. The focus of the European line is on the implementation of the December price increase and the adjustment at the EC2502 delivery date [80]. - Investment advice: The market fluctuates greatly. Pay attention to risk management and consider long positions on dips for the 02 contract [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are oscillating above $4,100, with signs of bottom - fishing allocation. The end of the US government shutdown and the potential December interest - rate cut will be points of long - short game. Short - term gold will continue to oscillate [2][11]. - The market for stock index futures is in weak oscillation. The implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the full release of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments have an impact on the market. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indices [13][14]. - The US labor market is slowing down, causing the dollar index to decline in the short term [3][17]. - The performance of US stock index futures is mixed. CoreWeave's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, but the full - year revenue forecast was lowered. The 10 - month ADP private - sector employment decreased by 45,000. The market is expected to be volatile at a high level, and a bullish approach is recommended [19][20]. - The bond market for treasury bond futures lacks a clear direction. It is recommended to pay appropriate attention to strategies such as positive arbitrage and widening basis spreads [23][24]. - For agricultural products like soybeans, the market expects the US soybean yield to be lowered. Brazilian soybean exports in November are expected to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [26][28]. - For black metals such as coking coal and coke, the spot price of coking coal is supported, but the iron - water decline and high downstream inventory put pressure on the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [4][29]. - For agricultural products like edible oils, palm oil needs to pay attention to November high - frequency data, and rapeseed oil can continue to focus on the 1 - 5 positive spread [30][31]. - For red dates, the purchase price in the production area has slightly decreased. It is recommended to wait and see until the harvest is completed [32][33]. - For steel products, steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating mindset [35][37]. - For cotton, the price in Brazil has reached a 16 - year low. The cotton market in China is expected to oscillate in the short term and be cautiously bullish in the long term [37][40]. - For live pigs, the fourth - quarter price decline pressure is large. It is recommended to short on sharp rebounds and buy far - month contracts at low prices [43][44]. - For thermal coal, the coal price is expected to remain high in winter but difficult to break through the 900 - yuan pressure level [45][46]. - For iron ore, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, waiting for demand improvement [47][48]. - For polysilicon, it has entered the critical point of policy - and fundamental - face game. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [49][51]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to buy at low prices and take profits at high positions [53][54]. - For lead, the industrial sector can look for short - selling hedging opportunities at high positions in the medium term [56][57]. - For zinc, observe the short - term short - selling trend and consider positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. - For nickel, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for long - buying opportunities after the inventory accumulation inflection point [60]. - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the medium term [61][64]. - For crude oil, it is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [66][67]. - For carbon emissions, the short - term support for CEA is strong [67][68]. - For pulp, the upward risk of the pulp market is increasing [69][70]. - For container freight rates, it is recommended to consider long - buying opportunities for the 02 contract at low prices [72]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US continues to implement the trade negotiation agreement. The global largest gold ETF's holdings increased by 4.3 tons. Gold prices oscillated above $4,100. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The central bank released the Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report, emphasizing a moderately loose monetary policy. 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments have been fully released. The market is in weak oscillation. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indices [13][14]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The French central bank expects the economy to grow slightly in Q4. The US labor market is slowing down, causing the dollar index to decline in the short term [16][17]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - CoreWeave's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, but the full - year revenue forecast was lowered. The 10 - month ADP private - sector employment decreased by 45,000. The market is expected to be volatile at a high level, and a bullish approach is recommended [19][20]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out a 403.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market lacks a clear direction. It is recommended to pay appropriate attention to strategies such as positive arbitrage and widening basis spreads [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 117.7 million tons of soybeans in the first week of November. The market expects the US soybean yield to be lowered to 53.1 bushels per acre. It is recommended to pay attention to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [26][28]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The online auction price of coking coal in Changzhi Qinyuan increased. The spot price of coking coal is supported, but the iron - water decline and high downstream inventory put pressure on the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US soybean crushing profit decreased. The palm oil market needs to pay attention to November high - frequency data, and the rapeseed oil market can continue to focus on the 1 - 5 positive spread [30][31]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The purchase price of red dates in the production area has slightly decreased. It is recommended to wait and see until the harvest is completed [32][33]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's automobile production and sales increased in October. Thailand imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese H - shaped hot - rolled steel. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [34][35]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Brazilian cotton prices reached a 16 - year low. The cotton market in China is expected to oscillate in the short term and be cautiously bullish in the long term [37][40]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - Zhongliang Jiajikang's live - pig sales volume increased by 25% in October. The fourth - quarter price decline pressure is large. It is recommended to short on sharp rebounds and buy far - month contracts at low prices [41][44]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The price difference between imported and domestic thermal coal exists. The coal price is expected to remain high in winter but difficult to break through the 900 - yuan pressure level [45][46]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - CSN's Q3 iron ore sales reached a record high. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate weakly, waiting for demand improvement [47][48]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Many silicon wafer enterprises reduced prices. Polysilicon has entered the critical point of policy - and fundamental - face game. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [49][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The Inner Mongolia Xingfa industrial silicon project is progressing orderly. It is recommended to buy at low prices and take profits at high positions [52][54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory increased. The industrial sector can look for short - selling hedging opportunities at high positions in the medium term [55][57]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread increased. Observe the short - term short - selling trend and consider positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia plans to lower the 2026 nickel production target. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for long - buying opportunities after the inventory accumulation inflection point [59][60]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Brazil's lithium concentrate exports decreased significantly in October. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the medium term [61][64]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US sanctions on a Russian oil company may affect European countries' inventory replenishment. Crude oil is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [65][67]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price increased. The short - term support for CEA is strong [67][68]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The upward risk of the pulp market is increasing [69][70]. 3.2.19 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Hapag - Lloyd will impose a peak - season surcharge. It is recommended to consider long - buying opportunities for the 02 contract at low prices [71][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping situation on the European route shows various trends in terms of loading rates, shipping schedules, and port congestion. The loading rates fluctuate among different alliances and departure regions, and there are also changes in shipping capacity and ship - schedule delays [6][11][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. European Route Loading Rate Tracking - W45 European - bound fleet's average loading rate for ships departing from China was 91.1%, a slight decrease of 0.4% from the previous period. The loading rate for ships departing from Asia in W44 was 98.2%, a slight increase of 0.5% from the previous period [7] - For different alliances, OA China - departure loading rate was 91.6%, a 3.7% decline; PA and MSC China - departure loading rate was 91.4%, a slight 0.2% decrease; Gemini China - departure loading rate was 90.2%, a 5.0% increase [7] 3.2. European Route Shipping Schedule and Capacity - In November, the monthly average weekly shipping capacity was 29.7 million TEU, 19% higher than the average level of 25.0 million TEU in the same period last year. Only in W46 was the supply low at 21.2 million TEU, and it will recover to 31.4 million TEU in the second half of November [11] - In December, the monthly average weekly shipping capacity was 30.3 million TEU, with 4 TBN remaining [11] - There were some changes in shipping schedules, such as route changes and TBN adjustments for certain voyages [11] 3.3. Ship - Schedule Delays and Spot Market Overview - In W45, 3 ships' schedules were postponed to W46, with 0 from Gemini and OA, and 3 from MSC and PA. The operation of Chinese ports is returning to normal [15] - The SCFIS (European route) index closed at 1504.80 points, a 24.5% increase from the previous period. The actual departure capacity of Shanghai Port on the European route in W45 was 28.96 million TEU, with 13% from the delayed schedules in W43 [16] 3.4. Ship - Schedule Delay Observation and Early Warning - There were ship - schedule delays in different weeks for various alliances, with specific ships being delayed for different days and postponed to different weeks. Early warnings were issued for some routes in certain alliances, such as the AE1 route in Gemini [28][31] 3.5. Relevant Port Congestion Data - In China, the average turnaround time at Yangshan Port was about 0.9 days, at Ningbo Port about 1.1 days, and at Yantian Port about 1.0 days. The congestion situation at Chinese ports continued to improve [35] - In Southeast Asia, the port operation fluctuations have converged, and the congestion situation has improved significantly. The average time of ships in port at Singapore Port was 1.3 days, and at Port Klang was 1.2 days [35] - In Europe, although the congestion scale at ports was still relatively high, the ship - turnaround efficiency has basically returned to normal levels, and the impact on the return journey of European - route ships has been greatly reduced [35]

Report Information - Report Title: Key Container Ports and Critical Hub Monitoring 202511 [1] - Researcher: Lan Xi from the Black and Shipping Department of Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute [1] - Qualification Numbers: F03086543 (从业资格号), Z0016590 (投资咨询号) [1] Core Views - Chinese port congestion continues to improve, with the turnover time last week dropping to a recent low; Southeast Asian port operation fluctuations have converged, and congestion has improved significantly [2] - Antwerp and Rotterdam strikes have ended, and the backlog of goods is being processed. Although port congestion remains high, ship turnover efficiency has basically returned to normal, and the impact on the return journey of European line vessels has been greatly reduced [2] - North American ports are operating well [2] Data Review Asian Ports - Yangshan, Waigaoqiao, Ningbo, Qingdao, Singapore, and Port Klang have different average waiting and berthing times for ocean - going container ships, with the latest number of ships at anchor/berthed also varying. Yangshan, Ningbo, and Yantian have average turnover times of about 0.9 days, 1.1 days, and 1.0 days respectively. Singapore and Port Klang have average ship - in - port times of 1.3 days and 1.2 days respectively [2] - Comparing the latest data of key Asian ports with month - on - month and year - on - year data, most ports show a decrease in the average in - port time [6] European Ports - Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, Bremen, and Valencia have different average waiting and berthing times for ocean - going container ships, with the latest number of ships at anchor/berthed varying. Antwerp and Rotterdam have average ship - in - port times of about 1.5 days and 2.5 days respectively, Hamburg 1.7 days, and Bremen 1.2 days [2] - Comparing the latest data of key European ports with month - on - month and year - on - year data, there are different degrees of changes in the average in - port time [6] North American Ports - Long Beach, Los Angeles, Tacoma, New York, Savannah, Norfolk, and Houston have different average waiting and berthing times for ocean - going container ships. North American ports are operating well [2] - Comparing the latest data of key North American ports with month - on - month and year - on - year data, there are different degrees of changes in the average in - port time [6] Port Dynamic Tracking Asian Ports - There are data on the scale of container ships in ports, the number of container ships at anchor and berthed in some ports, and the average in - port, waiting, and berthing times of ocean - going container ships in Southeast Asian and Chinese ports [9][13][18] European Ports - There are data on the scale of container ships in European ports, the number of container ships at anchor and berthed in some ports, and the average in - port, waiting, and berthing times of ocean - going container ships in Northwest European and Mediterranean ports [21][22][25] North American Ports - There are data on the number of container ships at anchor and berthed in some North American ports, the scale of container ships in North American ports, and the average in - port, waiting, and berthing times of ocean - going container ships in US ports [33][36][39] Large - Ship Arrival and Key Hub Monitoring - There are data on the arrival of large - scale container ships at Yangshan, Ningbo, and Singapore ports, and the arrival of 1.2w+ container ships of different alliances in Asian, Northwest European, and Mediterranean ports [43][46][49] - There are data on the passage of container ships through the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal [50][51][52]