何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程联席首席 研究员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 林晓明 金融工程首席研究员 座机：0755-82080134 邮箱：linxiaoming@htsc.com 今日早参 2025 年 8 月 07 日 今日热点 策略：资金透视：近期公募报会数量回暖 尽管上周后半周市场历经回调，但资金面角度并不需要过分担忧：1）交易 性资金后续仍有支撑，融资余额逆势新高、7 月私募证券投资基金备案数量 创下年内新高；2）公募基金往往是中国资本市场突破平台期的核心力量，7 月中旬以来偏股基金报会数量逐周底部修复，或也将成为后续增量资金的重 要来源；3）长线资金构成了刻画增量资金的另一片拼图，当前配置型外资 单周转为净流入（但仓位尚未明显提升）、险资或稳步入市。 风险提示：1）估算持仓模型失效；2）数据统计口径有误。 研报发布日期：2025-08-06 研究员 何康 SAC:S0570520080004 SFC:BRB318 王伟光 SAC:S0570523040001 今日深度 金工：另类 ETF 配置策略：日内趋势增强——ETF 智投研究系列 之十四 传统的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bandai Namco Holdings [6] Core Views - Bandai Namco's 1QFY26 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong sales from the Gundam mobile game and related merchandise, leading to a revenue increase of 7.1% year-on-year to 300.43 billion yen [1][5] - The company is actively exploring the value of its IP and expanding into overseas markets, indicating stable long-term growth potential in its gaming and toy businesses [1][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1QFY26, total revenue reached 300.43 billion yen, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 296.8 billion yen. Operating profit was 51.92 billion yen, exceeding the expected 44.1 billion yen, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 38.33 billion yen, higher than the anticipated 32.1 billion yen [1][5] - The gaming segment generated revenue of 107.77 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. Online gaming revenue was 55.6 billion yen, up 30.8%, primarily due to the successful launch of the new Gundam mobile game [2] - The toy segment achieved revenue of 146.89 billion yen, a 10.6% increase year-on-year, with Gundam-related toy sales reaching 25.4 billion yen, up 35.1% [3] Profitability - The company reported an operating profit of 51.92 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%. The gaming business contributed an operating profit of 21.7 billion yen, up 47.3%, while the toy business generated 28.57 billion yen, a 6% increase [4] - The company has revised its 1HFY26 guidance for gaming operating profit to 32 billion yen from the previous 20.5 billion yen [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report slightly lowers FY26 and FY27 revenue estimates by 4.6% and 3.2% to 1,285.17 billion yen and 1,383.83 billion yen, respectively, while introducing a FY28 revenue forecast of 1,440.82 billion yen [5] - The target price is set at 6,052 yen, up from the previous 5,803 yen, based on a revised PE ratio of 29x for FY26, aligning with the average of comparable companies [11][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 29.12 [1][7]. Core Views - The company has shown a positive growth trajectory in its revenue and profit, with a notable increase in the contribution from high-margin CDMO business [2][3]. - The company’s CDMO business achieved revenue of RMB 22.91 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16% [3]. - The company is expanding its new business capabilities, with significant progress in peptide and conjugated drug production, as well as small nucleic acid projects [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 28.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 5.26 billion, up 11% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of RMB 13.81 billion, with net profit increasing by 16% year-on-year [1]. CDMO Business - The CDMO business is a key growth driver, with a revenue contribution increasing from 71% in 2024 to 80% in the first half of 2025, leading to an improvement in gross margin from 35% to 37% [2]. - The company has a robust project pipeline, with 1,086 projects in clinical phases and 38 in commercialization as of the first half of 2025 [3]. New Business Development - The company has made strides in building capabilities for new business areas, including the expansion of facilities for peptide and conjugated drugs, and has onboarded over 20 new clients in the first half of 2025 [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is RMB 9.14 billion, RMB 9.52 billion, and RMB 9.74 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.03, RMB 1.07, and RMB 1.09 [5][10]. - The company is valued at RMB 259 billion using the SOTP method, with a target price of RMB 29.12 based on a total share count of 889 million [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to face a revenue decline of approximately 38.3% to 41.9% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit decrease of 23% to 24% [1][2]. - The company is actively responding to external pressures by adjusting its payment and delivery schedules, focusing on channel health, and launching strategic flagship products [2][3]. - Despite the challenges, the company’s brand possesses unique characteristics and a diversified marketing system, which may support regional and capacity expansion [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates revenue between 24.0 to 25.5 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% [1]. - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company is around 5.7 to 5.8 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 23% to 24% year-on-year [2]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to be approximately 6.1 to 6.2 billion RMB, indicating a decline of 39% to 40% [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is launching new strategic flagship products, including "珍 10" and "大珍·珍酒," to capture market share in both mid-range and high-end segments [3]. - Efforts are being made to solidify the competitive position of existing flagship products and enhance penetration in core markets [3]. - The company aims to tap into emerging consumer trends and scenarios, such as products for birthdays and weddings [3]. Future Outlook - The revenue forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been adjusted downwards by 27% across the board, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.34, 0.38, and 0.44 RMB for the respective years [4][12]. - The target price is set at 8.04 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22x for 2025 [4][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a relatively stable net profit margin despite the adjustments, reflecting confidence in its core business profitability [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 100.00 [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with projected revenue between RMB 4.09 billion and RMB 4.11 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.8% to 17.3%. Net profit is anticipated to be around RMB 540 million to RMB 560 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.9% to 35.8% [5][6] - The growth in revenue and profit is primarily driven by the multi-category layout of the Han Shu brand and substantial growth in the Newpage brand, which focuses on infant skincare [5][6] - The company is expected to maintain its competitive advantage in its price segment and expand its product categories, leveraging its multi-brand matrix for new opportunities [5][8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 6,793 million (+62.08%) - 2025E: RMB 8,502 million (+25.16%) - 2026E: RMB 10,422 million (+22.59%) - 2027E: RMB 12,668 million (+21.55%) [4] - Net profit projections are: - 2024: RMB 781.21 million (+69.42%) - 2025E: RMB 1,020 million (+30.53%) - 2026E: RMB 1,283 million (+25.86%) - 2027E: RMB 1,559 million (+21.51%) [4] - The expected EPS for the upcoming years is: - 2024: RMB 1.96 - 2025E: RMB 2.56 - 2026E: RMB 3.22 - 2027E: RMB 3.92 [4] Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, Han Shu's online GMV reached RMB 5.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, ranking fourth among domestic brands [6] - The brand's performance on the Douyin platform showed a significant increase in GMV, achieving RMB 456 million in July 2025, a year-on-year growth of 68.7% [6] - The Newpage brand also demonstrated strong growth, with GMV of RMB 341 million in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 128% [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [8] Core Views - The express delivery sector is expected to see significant profit recovery due to an early price increase trend, while the aviation sector is still at the bottom of the economic cycle, with potential for mid-term improvements in supply and demand [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In June, the retail sales and express delivery volumes showed year-on-year increases of 5.3% and 15.8% respectively, although the growth rate has slowed compared to May [3] - The price increase trend has started in core grain-producing areas, which could lead to significant profit recovery for express delivery companies if this trend spreads across all price ranges [3][10] - Key companies recommended include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shunfeng Express [10] Aviation - The summer travel season has shown weak performance, with domestic ticket prices declining by 7.5% year-on-year, despite a slight increase in passenger load factor [2][16] - The aviation sector is currently at a low point, but improvements in supply growth and demand could enhance profitability in the medium term [26] - Recommended stocks include China National Aviation and Huaxia Airlines, which are expected to benefit from supply-demand improvements [26] Logistics - The logistics sector is experiencing an early price increase in express delivery, and the bulk supply chain is expected to recover alongside rising commodity prices [3][65] - The cross-border e-commerce logistics sector is showing resilience as tariff impacts diminish [3] Shipping and Ports - In July, shipping rates for container shipping and oil transport declined, while dry bulk shipping rates increased due to seasonal demand [35][36] - The report anticipates stable supply-demand dynamics in August, with shipping rates expected to remain volatile [35] Road and Rail - The road transport sector is under pressure due to rising risk preferences and potential impacts from upstream industry dynamics [5] - Rail transport is expected to see flat growth in passenger traffic during the summer, with ongoing observations needed for the impact of upstream industry changes [5]

Group 1: Steel Industry - The steel industry is expected to benefit from self-initiated production cuts, with industry prosperity bottoming out in Q3 2024. If the anti-involution policy promotes crude steel production cuts, it could further enhance profit recovery [2][3] - The current phase of the steel sector is characterized by policy expectation trading and fundamental improvement, similar to the previous demand downturn cycle [2][3] - The adjustment in the Chinese steel industry may resemble a prolonged battle, drawing parallels with Japan's steel development history [2] Group 2: Saint Bella (2508 HK) - Saint Bella is the largest postpartum care and recovery brand group in Asia and China, with 96 maternity centers in 30 cities globally as of June 2025. The company is rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 9.76, corresponding to a 27X PE for 2026 [3][14] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue and adjusted net profit CAGR of 28% and 94% respectively from 2025 to 2027, driven by stable same-store growth and rapid store expansion [3] - Saint Bella aims to expand its family care and women's health product lines globally, leveraging its multi-brand and platform capabilities [3] Group 3: Yum China (9987 HK) - Yum China reported Q2 2025 revenue of USD 2.787 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and an operating profit of USD 304 million, exceeding expectations [5] - The company maintains a target of opening 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a focus on sustaining same-store sales growth in the second half of the year [5] - The operating profit margin improved to 10.9%, reflecting the resilience of the leading brand [5] Group 4: Techtronic Industries (669 HK) - Techtronic Industries achieved a revenue of USD 7.833 billion in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, with a net profit of USD 628 million, up 14.2% [6] - The growth is attributed to strong sales of flagship brands Milwaukee and RYOBI, alongside a strategic reduction in non-core business investments [6] - The company is positioned as a leading global brand in power tools and outdoor products, with a favorable long-term growth outlook [6] Group 5: Dongmu Co., Ltd. (600114 CH) - Dongmu Co., Ltd. reported H1 2025 revenue of CNY 2.930 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.51%, and a net profit of CNY 261 million, up 37.61% [7] - The strong performance is driven by robust demand in the automotive and home appliance sectors [7] - The company is recognized as a leader in the powder metallurgy industry, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [7] Group 6: Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891 CH) - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. achieved H1 2025 revenue of CNY 2.432 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.32%, with a net profit of CNY 203 million, up 42.56% [10] - The company benefits from strong domestic sales growth of 39% and an 18% increase in overseas sales due to capacity expansion [10] - The target price for 2025 is set at CNY 79.52, maintaining a "Buy" rating [10]

百胜中国公布 2Q25 及上半年业绩：2Q25 收入 27.87 亿美元/yoy+4%/不计 及外币换算影响 yoy+4%，1H25 收入 57.68 亿美元/yoy+2%。Q2 经营利润 3.04 亿美元/不计及外币换算影响 yoy+14%，超 VA 一致预期（2.92 亿美元）， 对应经营利润率 10.9%/yoy+1pct，再度彰显龙头韧性。1H 经营利润 7.03 亿美元/yoy+10%/不计及外币换算影响 yoy+11%。Q2 归母净利润 2.15 亿美 元/yoy+1%，归母净利率 7.7%/yoy-0.2%。Q2 每股派息 0.24 美元，维持 25 年净新开 1600-1800 家门店目标及 25-26 年股东回报指引，提前完成净 新开店加盟占比目标。受益于外卖平台补贴带来的单量提升，我们预计公司 2H 同店有望保持稳健增长，叠加店型持续迭代，租金、折摊等成本结构优 化，我们对 2H 盈利能力小幅提升保持相对乐观。维持"买入"评级。 Q2 同店转增，成本结构持续优化 2Q25 公司同店销售额同比+1%，实现转正，肯德基 SSSG+1%（同店交易 量 yoy 持平/平均客单价 38 元 yoy+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 132.59 [6][5]. Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in H1 2025, achieving revenue of USD 7.833 billion (yoy +7.1%) and a net profit of USD 628 million (yoy +14.2%), with a net profit margin of 8.0% (yoy +0.5pct) [1][3]. - Growth is driven by flagship brands Milwaukee and RYOBI, with a strategic focus on high-end brands and improved operational efficiency [1][4]. - The company is positioned as a global leader in electric tools and outdoor power equipment (OPE), benefiting from a diversified global production capacity to navigate trade challenges [1][4]. Revenue Performance - The electric tools segment generated USD 7.425 billion in H1 2025, up 7.9% yoy, with Milwaukee's revenue increasing by 11.9% and RYOBI's by 8.7% [2]. - The floor care and cleaning segment saw revenue decline to USD 408 million (yoy -4.8%), but operating profit increased by 3.6% to USD 9.7 million due to a shift towards rechargeable products [2]. Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 40.3% (yoy +0.3pct), attributed to the higher contribution from profitable brands and improved operational efficiency [3]. - Total operating expenses were USD 2.452 billion (yoy +6.5%), with a corresponding expense ratio of 31.3% (yoy -0.2pct) [3]. Brand and Technology Advantage - The company has a strong brand and technological edge, with 13 sub-brands catering to various consumer segments and a commitment to lithium battery upgrades [4]. - Global production facilities are strategically located, with 39% of capacity in China and significant portions in Vietnam, the US, and Mexico, allowing flexibility in response to tariff disruptions [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit is projected to be USD 1.293 billion, USD 1.473 billion, and USD 1.737 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of USD 0.71, USD 0.80, and USD 0.95 [5][10]. - The report assigns a target PE of 24x for 2025, reflecting the company's leading position and consistent profitability improvements [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Saint Bella with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 9.76, corresponding to a 27X PE for 2026E [1][5][7]. Core Insights - Saint Bella is the largest postpartum care and recovery brand group in Asia and China, with 96 centers in 30 cities globally as of June 2025. The company is expected to achieve a revenue and adjusted net profit CAGR of 28% and 94% from 2025 to 2027, respectively [1][19]. - The company is positioned in a growth phase characterized by stable same-store growth and rapid expansion, leveraging its unique high-end service brand and standardized operational capabilities [1][19]. - The report highlights the company's strategy of horizontal global expansion and vertical integration into family care and women's health food sectors, aiming to enhance its full-cycle family care platform [1][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Saint Bella recorded a revenue of RMB 798.67 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 42.64%. The adjusted net profit for the same year is projected at RMB 120.69 million, marking a significant recovery from previous losses [11][19]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a "brand-scale" positive cycle through a unique high-end service model, innovative supply chain management, and effective customer retention strategies. It holds a 1.2% market share, leading the industry [2][3]. - The operational model includes a light-asset approach with flexible leasing and a proprietary nursing team, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [2][21]. Growth Strategy - Short to medium-term focus on domestic and international expansion, with a target of 267-316 centers in China. The company plans to utilize its established brand and operational model to penetrate international markets [3][19]. - Long-term vision includes transforming into a comprehensive family health management platform, with new business segments expected to grow at over 30% annually [3][19]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of RMB 1.21 billion, RMB 2.05 billion, and RMB 3.06 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding adjusted EPS of RMB 0.19, RMB 0.33, and RMB 0.49 [5][11].