报告日期：2025 年 04 月 21 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 04 月 21 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 重要观点 重要点评 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/李沛】A 股策略周报：九连阳冲击区间上沿，逢低配、莫追高——20250419 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/高旗胜/赵闻恺】策略专题研究：先金融后成长，先大盘后中小盘——20250419 【浙商计算机 刘雯蜀/陶韫琦】计算机 行业点评："大模型+MCP+A2A"生态，打开多智能体协同生态成长空间 ——20250417 【浙商中小盘 钟凯锋/宋伟】德邦科技（688035）公司点评：集成电路与智能终端封装材料大幅增长，展现成长潜 力——20250419 浙商早报 1 重要观点 1.1 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/李沛】A 股策略周报：九连阳冲击区间上沿，逢低配、莫追高—— 20250419 1、所在领域 策略 2、核心观点 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for SANY Heavy Industry is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a 32% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, indicating improved profitability [1] - Total revenue for 2024 reached 78.4 billion, a 6% increase year-on-year, with operating cash flow net amounting to 14.8 billion, up 160% [1] - The company has a strong overseas revenue contribution, accounting for 64% of total revenue, with significant growth in various regions [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, SANY Heavy Industry achieved total revenue of 78.4 billion, a 6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.98 billion, up 32% [1] - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 14.8 billion, reflecting a 160% increase [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 26.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points, while the net profit margin improved to 7.8%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points [1] Revenue Breakdown - Excavation machinery revenue grew by 10% year-on-year, reaching 30.4 billion, maintaining the top sales position in the domestic market for 14 consecutive years [2] - Concrete machinery revenue decreased by 6% to 14.4 billion, but it remains the global leader in the sector [2] - The company’s overseas revenue for 2024 was 48.5 billion, a 12% increase, with a gross margin of 30% [4] Market Outlook - The engineering machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with domestic market acceleration expected to benefit leading companies like SANY [5] - The company’s excavator revenue constitutes 39% of total revenue, positioning it well to capitalize on the industry's upward cycle [6] - SANY Heavy Industry participated in the Bauma exhibition, receiving nearly 3 billion in intended orders on the first day [6] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 90.2 billion, 108.2 billion, and 128.5 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 20%, and 19% respectively [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 8.5 billion, 11 billion, and 13.7 billion, with growth rates of 42%, 30%, and 24% respectively [7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 19, 15, and 12 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company plans to acquire 51% of Xuzhou Xugong Heavy Vehicles for 820 million RMB, aiming to become a global leader in open-pit mining machinery [1] - The acquisition will enhance the company's competitive advantage in mining machinery by integrating a complete range of products, providing a one-stop service for global mining customers [1] - The company has been ranked among the top five global manufacturers of open-pit mining equipment for six consecutive years, achieving a revenue of 5.9 billion RMB in 2023 with a CAGR of 44% from 2019 to 2023 [2] - The company has secured significant international contracts, including a nearly 800 million RMB contract for core mining equipment for the Simfer project in Guinea [2] - The company expects revenue growth from 2024 to 2026, with projected revenues of 909 billion, 1,047 billion, and 1,279 billion RMB, respectively [3] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The company announced an acquisition of 51% of Xuzhou Xugong Heavy Vehicles for 820 million RMB, which will be consolidated into its financial statements [1][10] - The seller, Xugong Nanjing, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Xugong Group, focusing on vehicle design, production, and sales [1] Performance Commitments - Xugong Nanjing has committed to a net profit of no less than 1.44 billion, 1.61 billion, and 1.81 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, totaling at least 4.86 billion RMB [2][10] Market Position and Growth - The company ranked fourth among global open-pit mining equipment manufacturers in 2024, being the only Chinese company in the top five [2] - The mining machinery revenue accounted for 7.1% of total revenue in the first half of 2024, with a gross margin of 24% [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 909 billion, 1,047 billion, and 1,279 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -2%, 15%, and 22% [3] - The projected net profit for the same years is 62 billion, 78 billion, and 97 billion RMB, with growth rates of 16%, 26%, and 25% [3]

Group 1: EU ESG Policy Changes - The EU's temporary relaxation of sustainable regulations reflects a shift towards practical implementation, aiming to enhance economic competitiveness amid long-term concerns[1] - The Omnibus Package aims to reduce compliance pressure on companies by increasing the threshold for "large companies" from 250 to 1,000 employees and raising the revenue threshold from €150 million to €450 million, potentially excluding 80% of companies originally subject to CSRD[37] - The CSDDD will now focus only on direct suppliers, reducing due diligence requirements and limiting the scope of stakeholder engagement, which lowers compliance costs for companies[41] Group 2: Market Implications and Risks - The EU's ESG regulatory changes may foster closer cooperation between China and the EU in sustainable development, potentially reducing supply chain disputes[1] - There is a risk of the EU implementing green trade barriers or industry support policies that could impact Chinese renewable energy companies operating in Europe[2] - The market should remain vigilant regarding the potential for fluctuating market sentiments and the unpredictable implementation of ESG-related policies[3]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 资金面部分，未来一周，21-22 日进入税期走款，24 日开启资金跨月布局，25 日是 4 月 MLF 续作窗口，全周政府债净融资规模转负，关注央行临近跨月的操作，预计资 金面将保持均衡运行。 存单部分，未来一周，存单到期规模近 8000 亿，供给端压力增大，存单利率相较资金 利率利差已明显压缩，部分买盘有所止盈，存单收益率或震荡。 机构行为部分，未来一周关注：（1）LPR 操作、MLF 操作、4 月底政治局会议政策预 期以及特朗普发声可能对债券继续构成扰动，短期利率或继续窄幅震荡，等待线索更 加明晰后加剧波动的概率会放大；（2）近期短端利率受到资金价格和降准降息预期变 动后，相比长端性价比变弱，但是未来一周长端可能增加对于政策和基本面预期的定 价，长短端表现可能出现反向分化。 ❑ 流动性：资金面均衡运行有望持续 1、资金面部分：（1）超长特别国债发行计划公布，较市场预期有所提前，二季 度将进入政策集中发力期，央行净投放呵护税期资金面。（2）从资金的量、价观 察，大行融出规模稳中有降，各期限资金利率小幅上行，银行间流动性平稳，非 银融入规模边际下降，杠杆水平边 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 20 日 评级调整期将近，稳健类转债受益 核心观点 我们认为转债市场或将进入集中定价评级调整的阶段，随着年报的披露接近尾声，后 续基于最新年报进行评级展望，或将有相关标的的评级面临调降风险，市场或将选择 防御，建议继续关注稳健类转债。 ❑ 风偏回落，继续关注稳健类转债 过去一周（4 月 14 日至 4 月 18 日，下同）大部分转债指数下跌，其中可转债金 融行业指数，AAA 转债、可转债双低指数上涨。估值方面，债性、平衡性、股 性转债的估值普遍上升。可转债市场的价格中位数小幅下降到 117.67 元，处在 2017 年以来的 65.57%水平。整体来看，当前转债市场相对此前的高涨状态逐渐 降温，而且市场呈现出显著的防御特征。 我们认为当前可转债市场呈现出防御特征主要在于；首先，基于 2024 年财报， 有关国九条新规将要落地实行，市场风格也将更加关注基本面而非成长预期；其 次，评级公司也将会在年报披露完毕后，集中对转债进行评级展望，届时或将继 续有相关转债的评级有被下调的可能性；最后，海外关税风险冲击国内风险 ...

证券研究报告 钢铁周报：周度表需及去库幅度不错，黑色商品价格具 备底部支撑 行业评级：看好 2025 年 04 月 20 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 价格 | | 【浙商金属】 | | 钢铁周度数据 | | （2025年4月20日） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 277 | | 1 2% . | -2 2% . | | | 沪深300 | | 3 , | 773 | | 0 6% . | -4 1% . | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 113 | | 0 2% . | 0 5% . | | 块 | | SW普钢指数 | 2 , | 113 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 股份制银行Ⅱ 平安银行(000001) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 19 日 经营地基显著夯实 ——平安银行 2025 年一季报点评 投资要点 ❑ 平安银行 2025Q1 核心营收改善、负债量价双优、不良生成下行，显示当前平安 银行的经营地基已显著夯实。 ❑ 数据概览 平安银行 2025Q1 营收同比下降 13.1%，降幅较 24A 扩大 2.1pc；利润同比下降 5.6%，降幅较 24A 扩大 1.4pc。2025Q1 末不良率 1.06%，持平于 24A 末水平； 2025Q1 末拨备覆盖率 237%，较 24A 末下降 14pc。 ❑ 盈利地基夯实——核心营收改善 2025Q1 营收同比下降 13.1%，降幅较 24A 扩大 2.1pc，主要归因受市场扰动，其 他非息收入由 24A 的同比高增 68.7%，转为 25Q1 同比负增 32.7%，大幅拖累盈 利。值得注意的是，平安银行 25Q1 核心营收降幅已显著改善，盈利动能改善趋 势延续。①利息净收入同比下降 9.4%，降幅较 24A显著改善 11.4pc，得益于息差 环比回升。25Q1 息差（日均，下同）环比 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangsu Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - Jiangsu Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10.8% year-on-year in 2024, with revenue growth of 8.8%, indicating an improvement in performance compared to previous quarters [2][5] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.89% at the end of 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 350%, slightly down from the previous quarter [4][5] - The bank's net interest margin decreased by 4 basis points to 1.67% in Q4 2024, primarily due to a decline in asset yield [3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Jiangsu Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was CNY 31,843 million, reflecting a 10.8% increase year-on-year, while revenue reached CNY 80,815 million, up 8.8% [2][12] - The growth in performance was driven by a rebound in net interest income and non-interest income, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 6.3% and 3.3% [2] Interest Margin Analysis - The net interest margin for Q4 2024 was 1.67%, down 4 basis points from the previous quarter, influenced by a decrease in asset yield [3] - The asset yield fell by 13 basis points to 3.82%, while the cost of liabilities decreased by 6 basis points to 2.12% [3] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio at the end of Q4 2024 was 0.89%, unchanged from the previous quarter, with a focus on the stability of the bank's asset quality [4] - The bank's NPL generation rate was stable at 1.71%, with personal loan NPLs decreasing to 0.88% [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Forecasts for Jiangsu Bank's net profit from 2025 to 2027 are projected to grow at rates of 8.43%, 8.07%, and 8.31%, respectively [5][12] - The target price is set at CNY 14.05 per share, indicating a potential upside of 42% based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.98 for 2025 [5]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 18 日 存款"小行化"趋势延续 ——2025 年 3 月银行信贷收支点评 核心观点 2025 年 3 月，存款"小行化"趋势延续，大行存款增量为历年来低点，中小银行存款增 长强劲，小行未来对债市的定价权或越来越大，关注中小银行机构行为对债市有重要 意义；信贷放量，但结构偏弱，难以负向冲击债市。 ❑ 负债端：存款"小行化"趋势延续 3 月，个人贷款在消费贷发力背景下，仅小幅增幅；对公贷款有所放量，但以短 端为主，中长期信贷需求仍较弱，信贷整体结构偏弱，难以对债市形成负面冲 击。 1、个人贷款：消费贷发力背景下，仅小幅增幅。2025 年 3 月，金融机构居民贷 款增加 9888 亿元，较 24 年同期多增 465 亿元，在消费贷发力背景下，增幅不算 高；居民中长期贷款小幅改善，或与 3 月房地产市场迎来"小阳春"有关。 在当前存款"小行化"背景下，小行吸纳存款较多，但小行信贷投放相对承 压，进而转向投债，小行未来对债市的定价权或越来越大，关注中小银行机构 行为对债市有重要意义；反观大行，存款持续承压的背景下，或 ...