证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 软件开发 迪普科技(300768) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 18 日 有序扩张成效显著，强化 AI 技术赋能与产品创新 ——迪普科技 2024 年报&2025 一季报点评 事件： 点评： ❑ 有序扩张&高质量发展策略并行，效果显著 分业务看，公司网络安全产品、应用交付及网络产品、安全服务及其他服务业务 2024 年分别实现收入 7.67、2.88、0.91 亿元，分别同比+11.05%、+7.61%、 +30.76%，在营收中占比分别为 66%、25%、8%，整体收入结构维持稳定。我们 认为公司 2024 年度持续推进的有序扩张及高质量发展策略为公司各产品线的良 好发展奠定了坚实基础。 从下游客户看，公司在运营商、政府、公共事业行业分别实现收入 2.94、3.43、 2.15亿元，分别同比+7.54%、-4.00%、+4.28%。公司在运营商领域保持了较为领 先的行业地位，防火墙、入侵防御、异常流量清洗、WEB 应用防火墙、漏洞扫 描、应用交付平台等产品多年持续入围三大运营商的集中采购名单，在三大运营 商城域网、互联网出口、云安全资源池、数据中心等核心节点的全国网络中 ...

浙商早知道 2025 年 04 月 18 日 ： 张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 18 日 重要点评 ❑ 【浙商煤炭 程镱/樊金璐】煤炭开采 行业专题：美国天然气与中国煤炭对比研究——20250417 ： 021-80106048 ： zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：周四上证指数上涨 0.1%，沪深 300 与前一交易日持平，科创 50 上涨 0.2%，中证 1000 上涨 0.1%，创业板 指上涨 0.1%，恒生指数上涨 1.6%。 ❑ 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是房地产（+2.3%)、综合（+2.0%)、建筑材料（+1.2%)、社会服务（+1.1%)、轻 工制造（+1.0%)，表现最差的行业分别是汽车（-0.8%)、有色金属（-0.4%)、通信（-0.3%)、美容护理（-0.3%)、 公用事业（-0.2%)。 ❑ 资金：周四沪深两市总成交额为 9995 亿元，南下资金净流入 23 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company's overall revenue faced pressure, with significant declines in security products and services, but notable growth in emerging areas such as trusted computing products and cloud security [2] - Despite revenue challenges, the company's gross margin improved from 57.76% in 2023 to 58.77% in 2024, although net profit turned negative due to bad debt provisions and valuation changes of associated companies [3] - In 2025, the company aims to focus on improving operational quality, with early indicators showing an 8 percentage point increase in gross margin and a 15% reduction in total expenses [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 33.58 billion, 35.86 billion, and 39.39 billion respectively, with net profits expected to recover significantly in the coming years [5] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 3.315 billion, a decline of 26.44% year-on-year, with a net profit of -226.3 million [10] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue drop of 49.88% year-on-year [10] Profitability and Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 0.77 billion, 2.05 billion, and 3.68 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [5][11] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 59% in the coming years [11] Strategic Focus - The company plans to enhance operational quality in 2025, leveraging AI to optimize costs and improve profitability [4] - The strategic positioning as a dedicated cybersecurity subsidiary of China Mobile is expected to facilitate efficient growth [5]

证券研究报告 心中的「涨」声① ——大豆 2025年4月16日 行业评级：看好 | 分析师 | 钟凯锋 | | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | Zhongkaifeng@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230524050002 | 分析师 张心怡 邮箱 Zhangxinyi@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230524020002 摘要 ➢ 1、价格波动影响因素 我国大豆供给进口依赖度较高，主要来源国为巴西和美国，中国为全球大豆最大的消费国，国内消费量占全球的 32%，是美国消费量的两倍左右。 我国大豆下游应用以豆油端食用油和豆粕端饲料为主。海外豆油还有生物燃油的需求，美国和巴西豆油的一半左 右都用于生物燃油生产。 ➢ 2、供给脆弱性+需求刚性 极端天气频发；粮价大幅波动；下游需求不及预期 2 01 价格波动影响因素 目录 C O N T E N T S 02 供给脆弱性+需求刚性 03 风险提示 3 2025年1月USDA报告为市场观点转变的核心转折点，该报告显示了美豆供应宽松的基础已经所剩无几。 美豆价格已处于成本线以下，美农民种植大豆积极性或受影响，因此新作美豆减产 ...

证券研究报告 美国天然气与中国煤炭价格规律研究 ——从24年冬季天然气价格弹性看煤炭价格弹性 行业评级：看好 2025年4月17日 分析师 樊金璐 分析师 程镱 电话 13466717654 电话 18611864599 证书编号 S1230525030002 证书编号 S1230524100002 摘要 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 chengyi02@stocke.com.cn 1.行情回顾：2024年冬，气价大涨 2024年8月2日-2025年4月4日，美国天然气期货收盘价最大涨幅122.2%，从1.98美元/百万英热最高上涨至4.40美元/百万英热；2024年11月8日-2025年4月4日，现货价格最大涨幅715.0%， 由1.21美元/百万英热最高上涨至9.86美元/百万英热。 2.直接诱因：库存下滑，低于均值 95% 2024年11月起，美国天然气库存总量下降并低于前5年库存均值，市场预期供应趋紧，推动价格上涨；期货反映预期先涨，现货跟涨，价格高位时间取决于低库存持续时间；库存占全年 总产量的比例受需求影响呈先升后降趋势。 3.间接因素：天气极端，供需失衡 ①需求侧：2 ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 17 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 04 月 17 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：4 月 16 日上证指数上涨 0.26%，沪深 300 上涨 0.31%，科创 50 上涨 0.81%，中证 1000 下跌 1.33%，创业 板指下跌 1.21%，恒生指数下跌 1.91%。 ❑ 行业：4 月 16 日表现最好的行业分别是交通运输（+1.15%)、银行（+1%)、煤炭（+0.66%)、食品饮料 （+0.47%)、社会服务（+0.38%)，表现最差的行业分别是综合（-1.84%)、机械设备（-1.64%)、汽车（-1.55%)、 电力设备（-1.42%)、通信（-1.41%)。 ❑ 资金：4 月 16 日全 A 总成交额为 11408.07 亿元，南下资金净流入 78.94 亿港元。 浙商早报 1 市场总览 重要观点 ❑ 【浙商宏观 李超/林成 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is robust, with revenue and adjusted profit both increasing by over 30% [1] - The company is actively expanding its operations both domestically and internationally, with a focus on enhancing its medical resources and integrating AI into its services [2][7] - The company has a strong growth outlook, with projected revenue growth of 29% in 2025 and 26% in 2026 [7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.022 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%, and adjusted profit of 400 million RMB, up 31% [1][8] - The company maintained a gross margin of 30.1% and an adjusted net profit margin of 13.2% in 2024 [6][8] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 1.19 million RMB for the year, representing 38.7% of its net profit [1] User Engagement and Expansion - In 2024, the number of treatment visits increased by 26%, with an average spending per visit rising by 3% [2] - The company expanded its domestic presence to 78 institutions, with plans to add 15-20 more locations in 2025 [2][3] - The company has established partnerships with over 20 universities and hospitals, enhancing its medical expertise [2] AI Integration and Future Outlook - The company is leveraging AI to enhance its medical services, aiming to digitize the experience of traditional Chinese medicine [7] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are optimistic, with expected revenues of 38.89 billion RMB in 2025, 49.50 billion RMB in 2026, and 62.17 billion RMB in 2027 [7][8] - The company is focusing on optimizing its revenue structure by increasing self-paid services and expanding its product offerings [2][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Short - term bullish steepening logic in the bond market is not sound. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The main line of loose monetary policy remains unchanged in the medium - term. After the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, the curve bullish steepening will open up further downward space for long - term bond yields [1][3][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs Why the short - term bullish steepening logic is not sound - From April 11th to April 16th, 2025, after the bond market priced in the hedging of tariff shocks by stable - growth policies, it turned to a fluctuating state. The yield curve showed a mixed flat trend. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fluctuated between 1.63% - 1.67%. The yield of the 2 - year active treasury bond rose from 1.38% to 1.425%. The long - term and ultra - long - term bond buying sentiment was suppressed, and the gaps in treasury bond futures TL and T contracts were nearly filled. The money market rate started to rise on April 11th [10]. - **Difference 1: Central bank's attitude and policy implementation rhythm** - Under RMB exchange - rate pressure, the central bank's current attitude is restrained. In 2020, during the public health event, the central bank quickly used reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut tools, resulting in a rapid decline in money market rates. This time, due to RMB depreciation pressure, the central bank has net - withdrawn liquidity in the open market in the past two weeks. The overnight and 7 - day money market rates are still above the policy rates, and the money market is in an overall balanced state [11]. - In the next stage, monetary policy may be more coordinated with fiscal policy, and the implementation rhythm of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut expectations may be slow. The central bank's restrained loosening restricts the downward space of short - term bond yields and also limits the downward space of long - term and ultra - long - term bond yields due to the low term spread and flat curve [11][12]. - **Difference 2: External environment and domestic economic situation** - The current external environment is more complex and severe, but China's ability to handle trade frictions has improved. The average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth in the past five years has exceeded 80%. The proportion of exports to the US in total exports has dropped from 19.2% in 2018 to 13.5% in the first three months of 2025. China's economic dependence on external demand and the dependence of external demand on US exports have both declined [17]. - The economy had a good start in Q1, with domestic demand continuously warming up under policy promotion. Many economic indicators such as social financing, consumption, and industrial added value exceeded market expectations. The impact of tariff negotiations on the Q2 economy needs further observation. Policies in Q2 are expected to focus on boosting consumption, expanding investment, and stabilizing employment [17][18]. - **Difference 3: Uncertainty of tariff policy** - In 2020, the impact of the public health event on the capital market showed a "double - bottom" feature. In this tariff shock, the US's counter - tariffs and China's counter - measures basically occurred at the same time, and the market on April 7th had fully reflected this expectation. However, due to the unpredictability of Trump's policies and the complexity of tariff negotiations, whether there will be a secondary impact of tariffs on asset prices remains to be seen [25]. - **Strategy thinking** - Considering the exchange - rate stability constraint, the central bank's operations are currently restrained. Before the implementation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the possibility of a significant loosening of the money market is low. The current long - term and ultra - long - term bond yields are close to their previous lows. The bond market may fluctuate in the short - term. In the medium - term, after the implementation of the double cuts, the curve bullish steepening will open up further downward space for long - term bond yields [3][29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to face pressure in 2024, with a projected revenue of 2.014 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5.02%, and a net profit of 142 million yuan, down 68.67%. However, growth is anticipated in 2025 as hospital tenders recover and new products are launched [1][10] Summary by Sections Growth Potential - The ultrasound segment is expected to recover in 2025 due to the resumption of domestic tenders and the launch of new products. In 2024, the ultrasound segment's revenue declined by 3.3% due to a high base and slow tender recovery. The company has made significant advancements in high-end products, including the launch of the S80 and P80 machines, which are expected to drive growth in 2025 [2] - The digestive endoscopy segment is projected to see high growth in 2025 as domestic tenders recover and domestic replacement accelerates. The company has seen significant revenue growth in this segment from 2018 to 2023, and new products like the HD-650 are expected to enhance market presence [3] - The surgical and vascular intervention products are expected to contribute to long-term revenue growth, with new products being commercialized and significant revenue growth anticipated in 2024 [4] Profitability - The company's gross margin for 2024 is projected at 63.8%, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin is expected to recover in 2025 as tenders resume and new products are launched, following a significant decline in 2024 [5][9] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 2.393 billion yuan, 2.883 billion yuan, and 3.374 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 18.83%, 20.46%, and 17.04%, respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same period are 335 million yuan, 537 million yuan, and 636 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 134.93%, 60.49%, and 18.48% [10][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes a strategic shift for the bank, highlighting the potential for a "restart" in the banking sector due to declining risk-free rates and a relatively stable fundamental outlook, which may lower the opportunity cost for bank investments [1][2] - The bank is positioned to leverage artificial intelligence and financial technology to reshape its operational dynamics, aiming for performance that exceeds expectations and drives valuation recovery [2][5] - The chairman's vision includes transforming the bank's management approach from a departmental focus to a customer-centric model, enhancing collaboration across business lines to improve overall operational efficiency [3] - The bank aims to evolve from a digital banking model to a smart banking model, effectively utilizing vast amounts of financial data to enhance customer acquisition, asset allocation, and risk management [4] - The report identifies three revolutions—efficiency, risk control, and ecological service—as key drivers for the bank's performance and valuation recovery, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and reducing credit costs [5][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The bank's revenue and net profit are projected to show slight declines and growth, respectively, with a forecasted revenue of 170,748 million in 2024, decreasing by 1.55%, and a net profit of 45,257 million, increasing by 23.31% [12] - The expected net profit growth rates for 2025-2027 are 12.08%, 6.19%, and 6.51%, respectively, with corresponding BPS values of 23.50, 24.69, and 25.96 [11] Valuation Metrics - The target valuation for the bank is set at 0.70x PB for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 16.45 per share, indicating a potential upside of 57% from the current price of 10.47 [11] - The report anticipates a recovery in ROE from 6.28% in 2024 to a potential 10.0% in the medium term, which could drive valuation improvements [10] Operational Strategy - The bank's strategy includes a shift towards a technology-driven operational model, aiming to enhance efficiency and reduce risks associated with human error [4] - The focus on building a smart banking ecosystem is expected to improve customer engagement and operational effectiveness, positioning the bank as a leader in the digital transformation of the banking sector [4][5]