南京银行(601009) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 22 日 南京银行业绩增速、收入结构和资产质量均超预期，核心营收快速增长，资产 质量继续改善。 数据概览 2025Q1 营收同比增长 6.5%，增速较 24A 下降 4.8pc；利润同比增长 7.1%，增速 较 24A 下降 2pc。2025Q1 末不良率 0.83%，持平于 24A 末水平；2025Q1 末拨备 覆盖率 324%，较 24A 末下降 12pc。 核心营收高增 南京银行 25Q1 营收利润超预期，营收和利润增速均落在 5%以上增长区间。 2025Q1 南京银行营收同比增长 6.5%，归母净利润同比增长 7.1%。其中： ①南京银行利息净收入改善幅度超预期，25Q1 南京银行利息净收入同比增长 17.8%，增速较 24A提升 13pc。背后得益于规模增速提升和息差同比稳定。25Q1 生息资产同比增长 19.4%，增速较 24Q4 末提升 4.9pc，其中贷款和债券规模增长 均进一步提速；测算 25Q1 单季息差（期初期末）1.41%，同比 24Q1 略高 1bp。 ②中收实现高增，25Q1 中收同比增长 18%，判断主要得益于理财和代销 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nanjing Bank is "Buy" [9] Core Insights - Nanjing Bank's performance in terms of growth rate, revenue structure, and asset quality has exceeded expectations, with core revenue growing rapidly and asset quality continuing to improve [1] - In Q1 2025, Nanjing Bank's revenue grew by 6.5% year-on-year, while profit increased by 7.1%, although both growth rates showed a decline compared to 2024 [2][3] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.83% as of Q1 2025, consistent with the end of 2024, while the provision coverage ratio decreased to 324% [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Nanjing Bank's net interest income improved significantly, increasing by 17.8% year-on-year, driven by higher asset growth and stable interest margins [3] - The bank's interest-earning assets grew by 19.4% year-on-year, with both loan and bond scales accelerating [3][5] - The bank's non-interest income also saw a substantial increase of 18% year-on-year, primarily due to strong performance in wealth management and agency sales [3] Asset Quality - The static indicators show that the NPL ratio was 0.83% and the attention rate was 1.15%, with the latter decreasing by 5 basis points [6] - The dynamic indicators indicate an improvement in the NPL generation rate, which fell to 1.46% for the trailing twelve months, showing a year-on-year improvement [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Nanjing Bank is expected to maintain a mid-to-high single-digit growth rate in profits, with projected net profit growth rates of 8.09%, 7.03%, and 6.80% for 2025-2027 [7][14] - The target price is set at 14.26 CNY per share, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.91, indicating a potential upside of 37% from the current price [7]

Market Overview - On April 21, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.45%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.33%, the STAR 50 climbed by 1.07%, the CSI 1000 grew by 2.07%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 1.59% [4] - The best-performing sectors on April 21 were non-ferrous metals (+3.79%), computers (+2.72%), beauty and personal care (+2.11%), machinery equipment (+2.03%), and media (+2.03%). The worst-performing sectors were banking (-1.23%), food and beverage (-0.59%), real estate (-0.46%), coal (-0.32%), and transportation (-0.16%) [4][3] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on April 21 was 1,073.6 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.309 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][3] Company Analysis: SANY Heavy Industry - The report highlights that SANY Heavy Industry (600031) released its 2024 annual report, which exceeded expectations [5] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 32% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [5] - Investment opportunities are identified in the construction machinery industry, which is on an upward trend, with SANY's excavator revenue being a significant contributor to its performance [5] - Catalysts for growth include stabilization in domestic real estate and infrastructure investments, better-than-expected domestic excavator sales, accelerated international business, enhanced operational vitality, and rapid penetration of electric products [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is a leader in "integrated research and packaging testing" storage solutions, benefiting from the restart of production cuts by major overseas manufacturers and the rapid growth in storage demand driven by AI, indicating a potential upturn in the storage industry [1][2] - The company has established a comprehensive and differentiated product system, with clear domestic replacement opportunities, and is entering a phase of accelerated performance growth and project implementation [1][2] Summary by Sections Company Expectations - The market perceives the company as a low-end third-party storage module manufacturer with limited growth potential. However, the upward storage cycle, accelerated domestic replacement, and rapid growth in AI applications are expected to enhance the company's profit growth potential [2] - Major storage manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix have announced production cuts since late 2024, while AI is driving demand for high-capacity, high-performance storage solutions, indicating a price turning point in the storage industry [2] - The domestic willingness to adopt local storage solutions has significantly increased due to trade tensions, and the company offers a stable, high-quality product system [2] - The company is positioned in the supply chains of well-known AI/AR glasses manufacturers, which are expected to see significant sales growth in the coming years [2] - The company's C-end business has a clear growth trajectory, supported by strong brand recognition and consumer acceptance of domestic brands [2] Validation and Catalysts - Key indicators include storage product prices, the maturity and development of AI applications, AI glasses shipment volumes, the company's market share, and progress in its wafer-level packaging business [3] - Catalysts for growth include rising storage product prices, rapid growth in AI glasses shipments, and better-than-expected customer onboarding progress [3] Research Value - The report provides a deeper understanding of the company's competitive advantages, emphasizing the importance of integrated research and packaging testing for third-party module manufacturers [4] - The company is one of the earliest to adopt an integrated research and packaging testing model, which enhances product innovation, development efficiency, and quality assurance [4] - The company's unique firmware algorithms and self-developed packaging capabilities allow it to provide added value and meet diverse customer needs in niche storage markets [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 6.704 billion, 8.532 billion, and 10.864 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 86.71%, 27.26%, and 27.33% respectively [10] - The expected net profits for the same period are 176 million, 544 million, and 965 million yuan, with significant growth anticipated [10] - Based on a 2025 net profit estimate of 544 million yuan, a PE ratio of 95 is applied, resulting in a target market value of 51.7 billion yuan, indicating an 81% upside potential from the current price [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - March shows slight recovery signs as it enters the traditional recruitment peak season, but the certainty of the employment market's recovery still needs to be observed [1] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in March 2025 is 5.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points month-on-month [2] - The number of new job postings increased by 20% year-on-year as of April 16, indicating a recovery in confidence [3] - In March 2025, 75 out of 81 sub-sectors experienced year-on-year growth in recruitment positions, with notable increases in domestic services, group buying/takeout, wind power equipment, electric motors, and logistics [4] - The BOSS Zhipin app's monthly active users (MAU) reached approximately 52.7 million in Q4 2024, with strong year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 25%, 30%, and 28% across the four quarters [5] Summary by Sections Macro Level - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in March 2025 is 5.2%, down by 0.2 percentage points month-on-month. The labor survey unemployment rates for different age groups are 16.5% (16-24 years), 7.2% (25-29 years), and 4.1% (30-59 years) [2] Micro Level - As of April 16, 2025, the number of new job postings increased by 20% year-on-year. In March, the number of new recruiting companies grew by 2%, and the number of new job postings increased by 17% year-on-year, indicating a continuous recovery in recruiter confidence [3][5] Industry Analysis - In March 2025, 75 out of 81 sub-sectors showed year-on-year growth in recruitment positions, with the domestic services sector leading at 113% growth, followed by group buying/takeout at 54% and wind power equipment at 46% [4][12] - The recruitment trends in various sub-sectors are still under observation, as the specific recovery points remain unclear [4] Job Seeker Trends - The BOSS Zhipin app's MAU reached approximately 52.7 million in Q4 2024, with strong growth rates of 17%, 25%, 30%, and 28% year-on-year across the quarters [5][20] - The job search interest has not shown significant improvement since November, indicating that the period from October to the Lunar New Year is traditionally not a peak time for job seeking [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report includes a valuation of comparable companies in the human resources service sector as of April 18, 2025, with BOSS Zhipin's market value at 462 billion and projected revenues for 2025 at 83 billion [23]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 通信设备 业绩符合预期，高端占比持续提升 ——中际旭创 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报业绩点评 投资要点 ❑ 业绩符合预期，25Q1 盈利能力持续提升 2024 年，公司实现营收 238.62 亿元，同比+122.64%；实现归母净利润 51.71 亿 元，同比+137.93%；实现扣非归母净利润 50.68 亿元，同比+138.66%。全年毛利 率为 33.81%，同比+0.82pct。费用率持续优化，净利率 22.51%，同比+1.91pct。 2025 年第一季度，公司营收 66.74 亿元，同比+37.82%，环比+1.9%；实现归母净 利润 15.83 亿元（预告中值 15.5 亿元），同比+56.83%，环比+11.6%；扣非归母净 利润 15.68 亿元，同比+58.39%。业绩保持高速增长，符合市场预期。25Q1 公司 毛利率 36.7%，同比+3.94pct，环比+1.62pct，净利率为 25.33%，同比+4.11pct， 环比+2.42pct，盈利能力持续提升。 ❑ AI 需求驱动下游 Capex 保持高增长 AI 拉动算力需求，光通信网络是算力网 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 3.251 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 583 million yuan, up 29.89%, closely aligning with the forecast range [1] - The gross margin for the year was 58.13%, reflecting a steady increase due to cost optimization strategies [1] - The company expects a net profit of 135 million to 143 million yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.99% to 38.75% [1] Revenue Breakdown - The Resources and Public Utilities segment generated revenue of 1.425 billion yuan, up 26.41%, with a gross margin of 54.71% [2] - The Construction and Infrastructure segment reported revenue of 1.053 billion yuan, an increase of 8.97%, with a gross margin of 68.41% [2] - The Geospatial Information segment achieved revenue of 589 million yuan, a growth of 38.44%, with a gross margin of 53.1% [2] - The Robotics and Autonomous Driving segment had revenue of 185 million yuan, up 15.53%, with a gross margin of 41.95% [2] R&D and Global Expansion - The company invested 469 million yuan in R&D, accounting for 14.43% of revenue, focusing on high-precision positioning chips and autonomous driving products [4] - The overseas business revenue reached 938 million yuan, a growth of 30%, representing 28.8% of total revenue, indicating significant growth potential in international markets [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 760 million yuan, 970 million yuan, and 1.26 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a PE ratio of 29 times for 2025 [5]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 21 日 债券波动性知多少? 核心观点 随着债市进入高波动阶段，准确评估债券波动性有助于投资者增厚收益或控制估值风 险。本篇报告测算了各类券种与组合波动率，整体信用债＞国债，信用债内部二永债> 普信债>商金债，波动率与市场调整及后续修复期间债券价格涨跌幅呈正相关。 分组合来看，二级债拉久期/子弹型组合波动较大，城投债哑铃型组合相对稳健。债券 防守性与进攻性的评估结果与上述结论类似，普信债抗回撤能力较强但进攻性不足， 适用于调整期间防守；二永债进攻性较强，但容易在债市走熊时出现较大回撤。 ❑ 债市波动率初窥 2025 年受负 carry、基本面修复预期及权益走牛影响，高波动格局延续。横向看，信用债波动率 普遍高于利率债，其中流动性较好的银行二级债波动最显著，而商金债的持仓机构多为负债端 相对稳定的自营，因此估值最稳定。 ❑ 各类信用债波动率特征几何？ 1、分期限看，长短端债券波动率之间的差异与资金面有关，在资金利率波动较大的年份，短 久期券种波动率明显高于长久期券种，在资金利率相对稳定时长久期券种波动率反而高于 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6][18] Core Viewpoints - Songfa Co., Ltd. has successfully passed the restructuring approval, aiming to become the first publicly listed civil shipbuilding company in China [1] - The acquisition of Hengli Heavy Industry is expected to enhance the company's focus on shipbuilding and high-end equipment manufacturing [1][2] - Hengli Heavy Industry ranks 4th globally in new orders received in 2024, indicating strong order backlog and production capacity [3] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward cycle due to ship replacement cycles, environmental policies, and tight capacity, which are expected to improve profitability for shipyards [4][5] Summary by Sections Restructuring and Acquisition - Songfa Co., Ltd. plans to strategically exit the daily ceramic products manufacturing sector and fully acquire Hengli Heavy Industry, which will become a wholly-owned subsidiary [1][2] - The restructuring involves significant asset swaps and issuance of shares to acquire the remaining 50% stake in Hengli Heavy Industry [2] Order and Production Capacity - Hengli Heavy Industry has a robust order backlog with 16.74 million DWT and 3.97 million CGT as of April 20, 2025, and new orders of 12.83 million DWT and 3.18 million CGT in 2024 [3] - The company has strong self-manufacturing capabilities for key components, particularly ship engines, which allows it to accept external orders starting from March 2024 [3] Industry Trends - The shipbuilding industry is currently experiencing high demand, with a notable increase in container ship orders, while other types of vessels are seeing a decline [4] - The new ship price index has shown a significant increase since 2021, currently at a historical peak, indicating a potential for continued price growth due to supply constraints and inflationary pressures [4][9] - The overall shipbuilding capacity is nearing saturation, but the number of active shipyards and delivery volumes have decreased, which may lead to sustained high prices for new ships [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the shipbuilding sector is poised for growth, with leading companies expected to benefit from high demand for large and high-end vessels [7] - Key recommended companies include China Shipbuilding, China Heavy Industry, and Songfa Co., Ltd. [7]

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 经济周周看：本周经济景气度继续回落 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 4 月 19 日）为 5.3%，较上周修订值 5.6%略有放 缓，或表征经济增长景气较上周有所回摆。我们认为，随着关税冲击，GDP 周频景气 指数或有回落风险，有待持续跟踪验证。 从生产法来看，工业、服务业景气整体涨跌互相。 从需求侧来看，消费、基建本周边际反弹；地产、出口有所承压。 从价格端来看，本周物价边际承压，系统性回升有待需求侧 ...