Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - Ping An Bank's revenue decline has narrowed, and the bad debt generation has shown a downward turning point [1] - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to decrease by 4.2% year-on-year, with revenue declining by 10.9%, but the decline is less severe compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio at the end of 2024 is 1.06%, remaining stable compared to the end of Q3 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 251% [1][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, Ping An Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline by 4.2%, while revenue is expected to decrease by 10.9%, a reduction of 1.6 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - Other non-interest income has increased significantly by 68.7% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the bond market in Q4 [2] - The bank's net interest margin for Q4 2024 is 1.70%, a decrease of 17 basis points from Q3 2024, primarily due to a decline in asset yields [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio, attention loan ratio, and overdue loan ratio at the end of Q4 2024 are stable at 1.06%, 1.93%, and 1.52%, respectively, indicating an improvement in asset quality [4] - The real non-performing loan generation rate has improved by 12 basis points to 2.53%, suggesting that the pressure on bad debt generation has peaked and is now declining [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders from 2025 to 2027 is -1.11%, 5.07%, and 5.36%, respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 23.37, 24.97, and 26.69 yuan [5] - The target price is maintained at 14.00 yuan per share, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.60x for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the current price [5]

青岛银行(002948) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 14 日 经济大省的成长性城商行 ——青岛银行首次覆盖 投资要点 青岛银行是深耕山东的成长性城商行，化债推动风险评价改善，网点加密和低 不良生成有望支撑较强的盈利增长，有利于青岛银行估值抬升。 公司画像：经济大省成长性城商行 （1）发展：青岛银行由原青岛地区 21 家城市信用社合并组建而成。发展至今， 青岛银行资产规模达到城商行中位水平，具有金租和理财牌照，综合能力强。 （2）区位：青岛银行深耕青岛，覆盖全省。山东经济体量大，青岛经济领航山 东，是青岛银行发展的良好基础。截至 24H1 末，青岛银行有 51%贷款投向青 岛，其余分布在山东其他城市。 （3）管理：①青岛银行股权结构均衡，具有地方国资+优质民企+外资银行的多 元化股权结构。24H1 财报披露，青岛银行前三大股东分别是海尔集团、意大利 联合圣保罗银行、青岛国信，分别持有青岛银行 18.14%、17.50%、14.99%的股 份（合并子公司口径）。②管理团队金融经验丰富，以董事长景在伦先生、行长 吴显明先生为代表的核心管理团队，银行管理经验丰富，专业能力突出。 青岛银行不良表现处于同业中等水 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Bank is "Buy" with a target price of HK$4.15 per share, indicating a potential upside of 27% from the current price of HK$3.27 [4][11]. Core Views - Qingdao Bank is characterized as a growth-oriented city commercial bank deeply rooted in Shandong, with debt reduction efforts expected to improve risk assessments and support strong profit growth [1][10]. - The bank's asset quality is on an improving trend, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.17% as of Q3 2024, slightly above the industry average, but showing a significant decrease from previous years [3][9]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) has been gradually improving, driven by an expansion in interest margins and operational cost reductions [2][33]. Company Profile - Qingdao Bank was established in 1996 through the merger of 21 urban credit cooperatives and has grown to a total asset size of approximately 669 billion yuan, positioning it at the median level among city commercial banks [19][22]. - The bank has a diversified ownership structure, with major shareholders including Haier Group and the Italian bank Intesa Sanpaolo, which enhances its governance and operational capabilities [28][29]. Financial Analysis - Since 2021, Qingdao Bank's net interest margin has improved, reaching 1.77% in H1 2024, which is 15 basis points higher than the average for city commercial banks [35][37]. - The bank's asset yield was 4.07% in H1 2024, outperforming the average by 4 basis points, while its cost of liabilities was 2.25%, 6 basis points higher than the average [35][37]. - The bank's NPL generation rate has decreased significantly, with a TTM NPL generation rate of 0.64% in H1 2024, down 172 basis points from 2019 [3][10]. Investment Logic - The debt reduction policy is expected to enhance regional risk assessments, with limited impact on credit growth and a favorable outlook for interest margins [10][11]. - The expansion of branch networks has been a key driver for sustained growth, with the number of branches increasing to 196 by H1 2024, providing significant room for loan growth [11][22]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected growth rates for Qingdao Bank's net profit from 2024 to 2026 are 20.16%, 10.38%, and 11.36%, respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 6.45, 6.97, and 7.67 yuan [11][13].

青岛银行(002948) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 14 日 经济大省的成长性城商行 ——青岛银行首次覆盖 投资要点 青岛银行是深耕山东的成长性城商行，化债推动风险评价改善，网点加密和低 不良生成有望支撑较强的盈利增长，有利于青岛银行估值抬升。 公司画像：经济大省成长性城商行 （1）发展：青岛银行由原青岛地区 21 家城市信用社合并组建而成。发展至今， 青岛银行资产规模达到城商行中位水平，具有金租和理财牌照，综合能力强。 （2）区位：青岛银行深耕青岛，覆盖全省。山东经济体量大，青岛经济领航山 东，是青岛银行发展的良好基础。截至 24H1 末，青岛银行有 51%贷款投向青 岛，其余分布在山东其他城市。 （3）管理：①青岛银行股权结构均衡，具有地方国资+优质民企+外资银行的多 元化股权结构。24H1 财报披露，青岛银行前三大股东分别是海尔集团、意大利 联合圣保罗银行、青岛国信，分别持有青岛银行 18.14%、17.50%、14.99%的股 份（合并子公司口径）。②管理团队金融经验丰富，以董事长景在伦先生、行长 吴显明先生为代表的核心管理团队，银行管理经验丰富，专业能力突出。 财务分析：ROE 呈逐步改善态 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 中药Ⅱ 华润三九(000999) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 14 日 内生业务增长亮眼，天士力并购在即 ——华润三九 2024 年年报点评 投资要点 ❑ 风险提示：政策调整风险、成本波动风险、并购整合风险 | 财务摘要 | | --- | | [Table_Forcast] (百万元) | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 27,617 | 30,758 | 34,654 | 39,023 | | (+/-) (%) | 11.63% | 11.37% | 12.67% | 12.61% | | 归母净利润 | 3,368 | 3,837 | 4,425 | 5,071 | | (+/-) (%) | 18.05% | 13.94% | 15.31% | 14.60% | | 每股收益(元) | 2.62 | 2.99 | 3.45 | 3.95 | | P/E | 15.98 | 14.02 | 12.16 | 10.61 | | 资料来源：浙商证券研究所 | ...

投资要点 业绩前瞻 2025Q1，预计主要上市险企 NBV 平稳增长，同比增速平均为 11.8%，产险综合 成本率（COR）优化可观，净利润延续景气，同比增速平均为 17.8%。 驱动因素 （1）寿险 NBV：2025Q1，预计 NBV 保持平稳增长，归因：①个险渠道：随着 队伍高质量转型的纵深推进，预计代理人队伍规模降幅收窄，且队伍人均产能延 续提升，个险渠道起到稳定压舱石作用。②银保渠道："报行合一"政策实施 后，2024 年银保渠道新业务价值率显著提升，今年预计在产品结构优化驱动 下，新业务价值率仍将稳步提升；受益于客户防御性的理财需求持续旺盛，以及 银行存款利率下调，以增额终身寿险及养老年金险为代表的储蓄险在银保渠道继 续畅销，预计银保渠道的 NBV 贡献进一步加大。预计 2025Q1 各家 NBV 平稳增 长，具体为新华保险（13.7%）＞中国太保（12.4%）＞中国平安（11.9%）＞中 国人寿（9.1%）。 证券研究报告 | 季度行业策略报告 | 保险Ⅱ （2）产险 COR：中国财险 2025Q1 的 COR 预计同比显著优化 1.5pt，至 96.4%，归因：①今年一季度，冰雪、冻雨等大型自然 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for China People's Insurance Company (601319) for the first time [6]. Core Views - China People's Insurance Company is a leading player in the property insurance sector, with a strong focus on both property and life insurance, showing promising transformation results in its life insurance segment [4][14]. - The company has demonstrated stable growth in investment management, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.6% in total investment assets from 2015 to 2023 [3]. - The forecast for revenue growth is 14% in 2024, followed by 6% and 8% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a significant expected increase in net profit in 2024 [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China People's Insurance Company has a long-standing history and is recognized as a pioneer in the insurance industry, with a comprehensive business model covering property, life, and health insurance [14][15]. - The company has maintained a dominant position in the property insurance market, with property insurance accounting for over 70% of its revenue [15][16]. Property Insurance - The company leads the market with a property insurance premium market share of 31.8% as of the end of 2024, significantly ahead of its competitors [18]. - The combined operating ratio (COR) for auto insurance is 96.4% in 2024H1, indicating strong underwriting profitability [39]. - Non-auto insurance premiums are expected to be a major growth driver, with a projected share of 44.7% in 2024 [37]. Life Insurance - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance has shown a remarkable recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 69.6% in 2023 and 91% in 2024H1 [2]. - The bank insurance channel has become a significant contributor, accounting for 49.1% of the NBV in 2024H1 [2]. - The health insurance segment has also seen substantial growth, with a 159% increase in NBV in 2024H1 compared to the previous year [2]. Investment Performance - The total investment assets reached 1.53 trillion yuan by the end of 2024H1, with an average net investment return of 5.1% from 2015 to 2024H1, outperforming major competitors [3]. - The company has maintained a stable investment performance with low volatility, contributing positively to its overall profitability [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 14% in 2024, with net profit projected to increase by 88% [4]. - The target price is set at 7.88 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.21 times for 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Sanjiu (华润三九) is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.617 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.368 billion yuan, up 18.05% year-on-year [6] - The CHC (Consumer Health Care) business showed rapid growth, with revenue reaching 12.482 billion yuan, a 14.13% increase year-on-year, while the prescription drug business also performed well with a revenue of 6.006 billion yuan, up 15.05% year-on-year [6] - The merger with Tianjin Tasly has received approval from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which is expected to enhance the company's core competitiveness in the traditional Chinese medicine sector [6] - The company anticipates double-digit revenue growth in 2025, with net profit expected to match revenue growth levels [6] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are as follows: 27.617 billion yuan (2024), 30.758 billion yuan (2025E), 34.654 billion yuan (2026E), and 39.023 billion yuan (2027E), with respective growth rates of 11.63%, 11.37%, 12.67%, and 12.61% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.368 billion yuan (2024), 3.837 billion yuan (2025E), 4.425 billion yuan (2026E), and 5.071 billion yuan (2027E), with growth rates of 18.05%, 13.94%, 15.31%, and 14.60% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 2.62 yuan (2024), 2.99 yuan (2025E), 3.45 yuan (2026E), and 3.95 yuan (2027E) [2] Business Performance - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 51.86% in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.38 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to business structure adjustments [6] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 12.20%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, and the weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 17.33%, up 1.47 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The integration of Kunming Pharmaceutical Group is progressing, with its revenue for 2024 reported at 8.401 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.34% year-on-year, but with a net profit increase of 19.86% [6]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Junting Hotel [6][14]. Core Views - Junting Hotel differentiates itself in the competitive mid-to-high-end hotel market by adopting a "one store, one product" strategy, which enhances its RevPAR and profitability per store [1][3][13]. - The company is leveraging various expansion strategies, including direct management, franchising, and external funds, to minimize risks and achieve nonlinear growth despite its smaller scale compared to competitors [1][3][13]. - The mid-to-high-end hotel market is experiencing a transformation, with domestic brands poised to emerge as leaders due to changing consumer preferences and the increasing importance of differentiated offerings [2][42]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Junting Hotel Group is a leading operator of mid-to-high-end business and resort hotels in China, focusing on a service system that emphasizes "design selection, cultural selection, and lifestyle selection" [22][24]. - The company has undergone several phases of development, including brand optimization and expansion into high-end resort markets, culminating in its listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [23][24]. Market Dynamics - The mid-to-high-end hotel market is expanding, with a growing demand for differentiated services and experiences, driven by younger consumers willing to pay a premium [2][35]. - The supply-demand mismatch in the hotel market is expected to diminish, with a projected increase in the number of mid-range hotel rooms [36][40]. Growth Strategy - Junting Hotel's growth strategy includes enhancing its direct management stores, launching a franchise model, and utilizing external funds to support expansion [3][4][12]. - The company aims to establish a thousand-store scale within three years through its franchise business, which is set to commence in 2025 [3][4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Junting Hotel's revenue to reach 627 million, 790 million, and 1.031 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.42%, 26.05%, and 30.42% [4][5]. - The projected net profit for the same period is expected to be 29 million, 65 million, and 144 million yuan, with significant growth anticipated in the latter years [4][5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but it follows a relative rating system based on performance against the CSI 300 index [6]. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has been experiencing a continuous pullback since February, leading to weakened trading sentiment. Institutions with liquidity needs and sensitivity to net value are advised to adopt a cautious approach and selectively allocate investments [4]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted post the Two Sessions, causing potential adjustments in the long-end of the bond market [4]. - The report emphasizes a focus on ultra-long credit bonds and provides a market outlook [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4%, with the CSI 300 also down by 0.4%. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.2%, while the Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.6% [3]. - The best-performing sectors included coal (+4.2%), beauty and personal care (+1.6%), steel (+1.2%), utilities (+0.9%), and oil and petrochemicals (+0.8%). Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were machinery (-2.6%), electronics (-2.4%), computers (-2.1%), automobiles (-1.9%), and media (-1.8%) [2][3]. Important Insights - The report discusses the ultra-long credit bonds market, indicating that the peak is approaching and suggesting a selective allocation strategy [4]. - The market's delayed pricing of interest rate cuts may lead to further adjustments in the long-end of the bond market [4]. - The report highlights the impact of a strong equity market on the bond market, suggesting a need for cautious positioning [4].