Investment Rating - The investment rating for Longsheng Technology is maintained as "Buy" [3] Core Views - Longsheng Technology has made a strategic investment in Weihan Intelligent, which will become a controlling subsidiary, enhancing its capabilities in the robotics sector [7] - The investment aims to leverage Weihan's precision manufacturing technology to accelerate the development of core transmission systems for humanoid robots, creating a closed-loop innovation model [7] - The company plans to integrate government, academic, and overseas resources to build an industrial ecosystem that combines precision manufacturing of automotive parts with robotics technology [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Longsheng Technology are as follows: - 2024: 26.61 billion, YOY growth of 45.6% - 2025: 33.47 billion, YOY growth of 25.8% - 2026: 40.67 billion, YOY growth of 21.5% [7] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 2.38 billion, YOY growth of 61.9% - 2025: 3.15 billion, YOY growth of 32.6% - 2026: 3.98 billion, YOY growth of 26.2% [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2024: 1.03 yuan - 2025: 1.36 yuan - 2026: 1.72 yuan [7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be: - 2024: 36.92 - 2025: 27.85 - 2026: 22.07 [7] Strategic Developments - The investment in Weihan Intelligent is based on its expertise in precision harmonic reducers and integrated joint actuators, which aligns with Longsheng's strategy to enhance its robotics capabilities [7] - The company aims to create a dual empowerment model that meets the needs of mainstream automotive manufacturers in smart manufacturing and robotics development [7]

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 农林牧渔 大豆库销比再下调，国内玉米库存收紧 ——3 月 USDA 供需报告分析 投资要点 ❑ 海外库存相对宽松，中国库存显著下调 本月 USDA 供需报告中，对 2024/25 年度全球（除中国外）玉米的预计产量上调 了 170 万吨，至 9.19 亿吨，同比上一年度减少 2.1%。其中，美国玉米供需数据 与上月相比没有变化；印度产量上调 200 万吨，反映了其种植面积增加，且季风 降雨理想，使得单产潜力改善；根据当地的最新数据，俄罗斯和乌克兰的产量分 别上调了 75 万吨和 30 万吨。贸易方面，全球贸易的主要调整包括巴西出口下调 了 200 万吨，南非出口下调了 90 万吨，中国玉米进口下调了 200 万吨。最终，全 球（除中国外）2024/25 年度玉米结转期末库存上调 62 万吨至 8775 万吨，同比减 少 14.5%；库销比上调 0.1pct 至 9.5%。 ❑ 南北美主产区产量未做调整，全球大豆库销比再度下调 本月 USDA 供需报告中，2024/25 年度全球（除中国外）新季大豆产量未做调整， 维持 4.0 亿吨，同比上一年度增加 6.9%。其中，南美和北美产 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The securities sector is expected to focus on recovery, mergers and acquisitions, and performance growth. The first quarter of 2024 saw a significant decline in net profit for listed brokers, but a rebound is anticipated in the first quarter of 2025 due to improved market conditions and increased trading volume [1][2] - The merger and acquisition theme continues to gain traction, with several significant developments in the industry, including the restructuring of major shareholders and the expansion of the market expectations for mergers among brokerages [1][2] - The financial technology sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a focus on companies that can leverage AI technology and offer high cost-performance ratios [3] Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The first quarter of 2024 saw a net profit of 29.4 billion yuan for 43 listed brokers, a year-on-year decline of 32%. However, the first quarter of 2025 is expected to show significant growth due to a low base effect and improved market conditions [1] - The brokerage index has underperformed compared to major indices, presenting a potential for recovery as market activity increases [2] Mergers and Acquisitions - There have been numerous merger and acquisition activities in the brokerage sector since the beginning of the year, with notable announcements from various firms indicating a trend towards consolidation [1][8] Financial Technology - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying high-value financial technology stocks that can benefit from the ongoing AI revolution, particularly those with lower valuations compared to their peers [3][4] Investment Recommendations - Specific recommendations include brokers such as China Galaxy, CITIC Securities, and GF Securities, as well as financial technology firms like Tonghuashun and Dingdian Software [4]

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 农林牧渔 大豆库销比再下调，国内玉米库存收紧 ——3 月 USDA 供需报告分析 投资要点 ❑ 海外库存相对宽松，中国库存显著下调 本月 USDA 供需报告中，对 2024/25 年度全球（除中国外）玉米的预计产量上调 了 170 万吨，至 9.19 亿吨，同比上一年度减少 2.1%。其中，美国玉米供需数据 与上月相比没有变化；印度产量上调 200 万吨，反映了其种植面积增加，且季风 降雨理想，使得单产潜力改善；根据当地的最新数据，俄罗斯和乌克兰的产量分 别上调了 75 万吨和 30 万吨。贸易方面，全球贸易的主要调整包括巴西出口下调 了 200 万吨，南非出口下调了 90 万吨，中国玉米进口下调了 200 万吨。最终，全 球（除中国外）2024/25 年度玉米结转期末库存上调 62 万吨至 8775 万吨，同比减 少 14.5%；库销比上调 0.1pct 至 9.5%。 ❑ 南北美主产区产量未做调整，全球大豆库销比再度下调 本月 USDA 供需报告中，2024/25 年度全球（除中国外）新季大豆产量未做调整， 维持 4.0 亿吨，同比上一年度增加 6.9%。其中，南美和北美产 ...

板块存在补涨机会：年初以来，券商指数下跌 4.7%，上证综指上涨 0.6%，沪深 300 上涨 0.2%，科创 50 上涨 12.0%，券商板块跑输主要指数，科创表现亮眼。 截至 2025 年 3 月 7 日，板块 PB 估值为 1.4 倍，位于十年 36%分位数。春节后市 场活跃度提高，在成交额放大带动指数上攻的情况下（截至 3 月 7 日，年初至今 日均股基成交额约 15,189 亿元，24Q1 为 10,217 亿元），券商板块有望补涨。 ❑ 金融科技：寻找享受科技贝塔的高性价比标的 春节后，随着 DeepSeek 浪潮袭来，全球资金更加重视中国的 AI 技术革命带来的 投资机会，为金融科技股注入强劲吸引力。同时，市场资金有高切低需求，相比 于 A 股，港股、美股部分金融科技股科技属性更强、估值较低，具备性价比优 势，且外资更易触达，因此更容易受到增量资金或转换资金的青睐。从动态 PE 来看，部分金融科技标的涨幅过大且估值过高，而九方智投的估值相比同业尚处 于历史较低位置，也易享受到科技的贝塔，同时也建议关注涨幅较小且估值较低 的 A 股券商 IT 标的顶点软件。 ❑ 投资建议 投资要点 ❑ 证券板块： ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The report suggests that the negative factors have been fully priced in, and a turning point is approaching, with the fundamentals expected to exceed market expectations [1] - The company is recognized as one of the most comprehensive domestic cosmetics groups, with new products, brands, and channel expansions likely to drive revenue beyond expectations [1] - The adjustment in the "Da Bo" strategy and the increase in the proportion of non-box products are anticipated to improve net profit margins, leading to net profit exceeding expectations [1] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The market anticipates a decline in monthly sales data for the brand "Han Shu" on Douyin due to high base effects and the lack of new product launches [2] - However, the report argues that the decline in GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) is primarily due to a significant drop in the "Da Bo" proportion, which has decreased from approximately 40%-50% to 12% in recent months [2] - With the expected recovery in "Da Bo" rhythm and a lower base starting in Q2, monthly sales data for "Han Shu" is projected to turn positive [2] Product Development Capability - The market questions the company's ability to create high-priced single products, as previous successes were mainly in box sets [3] - The report asserts that the company has a deep understanding of the cosmetics market and has successfully launched single products, such as the "Newpage" cream, validating its capability to develop high-quality single products [3] E-commerce Operations - There are concerns regarding the company's operational capabilities on platforms like Tmall, given its previous success on Douyin [4] - The report highlights the management's strong learning ability and adaptability, noting improvements in Tmall operations and growing sales on other platforms like Pinduoduo and JD [4] Growth Drivers - The report identifies several growth drivers, including the performance of new products, the sales of major single products, and the expansion into new channels [5] - The expected sales growth from new products and brands is anticipated to lead to revenue and performance exceeding expectations [5] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 67.8 billion, 82.8 billion, and 97.6 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 62%, 22%, and 18% respectively [13] - The net profit is expected to reach 8.1 billion, 10.1 billion, and 12.4 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 75%, 25%, and 23% respectively [13] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's long-term development, supported by its strong brand influence and operational capabilities across various channels [13]

债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 13 日 基于中国视角看美国"化债" ——债市专题研究 核心观点 当财政盈亏平衡问题成为推进减税政策的潜在阻碍，美国版"化债"或渐行渐近。增 收节支，双管齐下推进去杠杆过程中，经济预期或将生变，小幅衰退或成为潜在路径。 映射至金融市场，美股或面临多重压力，美债利率下行空间有望打开。 ❑ 我国宏观部门杠杆率变化历程回顾 证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 ❑ 以中鉴外，美国版"化债"将如何演绎？ 横向对比来看，中美两国各部门杠杆率水平存在显著差别，我国非金融企业及居 民部门杠杆率水平较高，中央及地方政府杠杆率相对较低。美国则恰恰相反，政 府部门成为加杠杆主力。 美国需要"化债"吗？当财政盈亏平衡问题成为推进减税政策的潜在阻碍，如何 增收节支成为摆在特朗普政府面前的现实问题。特朗普政府之所以需要推进美国 版"化债"，出发点或在于其推动将 2017 年 TCJA 法案永久化的核心政策主张。 如何"化债"？增收节支，双管齐下推进去杠杆。收入端，特朗普政府以缩小贸 易逆差为理由，提出对等关税概念，对欧洲、加拿大、墨西哥等多个国家或地区 挥舞关税大棒，同时 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 纺织制造 华利集团(300979) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 12 日 新厂投产助力新客放量，盈利能力逐步释放 ——华利集团点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 公司发布 2024 年业绩快报及分红预案： 2024 年实现营业收入 240.06 亿元（同比+19.35%），归母净利润 38.41 亿元（同 比+20.01%），扣非后归母净利润 37.82 亿元（同比+18.87%）。 24Q4 单季度实现营业收入 64.95 亿元（同比+11.9%），归母净利润 9.97 亿元（同 比+9.2%），扣非后归母净利润 9.79 亿元（同比+5.3%）。 2024 年公司运动鞋销量 2.23 亿双（同比+17.53%），单 Q4 销量约 0.60 亿双（同 比+10.5%），Q4 由于基数上升，较前三季度有所降速，全年增长符合预期。 根据测算，2024 年人民币 ASP 约 107 元/双（同比+2%左右），单 Q4 人民币 ASP 约 108 元/双（同比+1%左右），全年各季度 ASP 均较稳定。 2024 年净利率 16.0%（同比+0.1pp），单 Q4 净利率 15.4%（同比 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 32.98 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and a net profit of 6.34 billion yuan, also up 12% year-on-year. In Q4 alone, the revenue was 8.71 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.80 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 46% [1][3] - The company is a leader in the domestic coal-to-olefins industry, with significant cost advantages. The production capacity from the Inner Mongolia project is expected to enhance earnings elasticity [3][5] - The company anticipates net profits of 11.40 billion yuan, 13.25 billion yuan, and 15.44 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 79.81%, 16.27%, and 16.53% [3][5] Financial Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 32.98 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected revenue of 50.05 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 51.75% [4][6] - The gross margin for the year was 33.1%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 19.2%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points [5][6] - The company’s polyethylene and polypropylene revenues were 8.05 billion yuan and 7.80 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +36% and +53% [5][6] Production Capacity and Future Growth - The Inner Mongolia project, with a capacity of 2.6 million tons per year, is set to begin production in November 2024, making it the largest coal-to-olefins project globally. Once fully operational, the company's total olefins capacity will reach 5.2 million tons per year [5][6] - The company is also planning a coal-to-olefins project in Xinjiang, which could add approximately 3.9 million tons of capacity, contributing significantly to future earnings growth [5][6]