证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 21 日 横店影视（603103.SH） 25 年 Q1 营收利润大幅增长，多项财务指标创上市以来 新高 公司发布 25Q1 季报，实现营业收入 11.72 亿元，同比增长 39.15%；归母净利 润 3.43 亿元，同比增长 56.77%；扣非归母净利润 3.26 亿元，同比增长 110.35%。 强烈推荐（维持） TMT 及中小盘/传媒 目标估值：NA 当前股价：14.76 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 634 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 634 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 9.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 9.4 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 2.4 | | ROE（TTM） | 1.8 | | 资产负债率 | 64.6% | | 主要股东 | 横店集团控股有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 80.35% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 5 33 1 相对表现 11 36 -4 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -40 -20 0 20 40 Apr/24 Aug/24 De ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strongly Recommended" [2][10]. Core Views - The company has significantly improved its profitability, with total revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items for 2024 reaching 2.397 billion, 224 million, and 183 million respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 31.21%, 52.81%, and 59.18% [1][9]. - The company is actively expanding its new business segments, particularly in the automotive and aerospace sectors, which are expected to drive future growth [10][12]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 754 million and 71 million respectively, with year-on-year increases of 17.77% and 42.24% [6]. - The company’s sales gross margin for 2024 was 17.95%, and the net profit margin was 9.57% [1][6]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 1.827 billion in 2023 to 7.405 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 59% [9][12]. Business Segments - The company has shown strong performance in the automotive engine exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) system market, with production and sales of EGR components increasing by 28.30% and 31.80% respectively in 2024 [6]. - The company has established a subsidiary focused on electric vehicle motor core components, with significant orders from major clients expected to start in the second half of 2025 [6][10]. - In the aerospace sector, the company has secured strategic partnerships and is supplying precision components for satellite energy modules and control modules [7][10]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is projected to be 11.6%, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 35.6 for 2024 and expected to decrease to 11.8 by 2027 [2][9][12]. - The company’s net profit is expected to reach 345 million in 2025, corresponding to a PE ratio of 23.1 [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the compound fertilizer industry due to its increasing concentration and potential benefits from tariff responses against the US [4] Core Viewpoints - The chemical sector saw a slight increase of 0.31% in the third week of April, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.88 percentage points [12] - Key stocks that performed well include Hongbaoli (+55.21%), Lingpai Technology (+28.07%), and Hongqiang Co. (+24.25%) [12] - The report highlights the significant price increases in trichloroethylene (+16.28%) and WTI crude oil (+7.67%) [20] - The report emphasizes the potential growth of companies like Xinyangfeng in the compound fertilizer sector, Chenghe Technology benefiting from tariff responses, Baofeng Energy with increasing production capacity, and Huangma Technology as a leader in specialty surfactants [4] Industry Performance - The chemical sector's dynamic PE is reported at 23.28 times, lower than the average PE of 14.76 times since 2015 [12] - In the third week of April, 20 sub-industries within the chemical sector increased, while 11 decreased, with textile chemicals (+6.07%) and modified plastics (+4.8%) leading the gains [15] - The report notes significant fluctuations in product prices, with liquid chlorine experiencing a drastic drop of -62.28% [20][39] Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases, including trichloroethylene (+16.28%) and WTI crude oil (+7.67%) [20] - It also highlights the top five products with the largest price spread increases, such as ethylene glycol (+1154%) and naphtha (+32.58%) [39] Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include polyester chips (+17.14%) and polyester filament (+14.11%) showing significant increases [60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 13 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 107%, with an adjusted net profit of 3.4 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit margin of 26.1%, an increase of 7.2 percentage points year-on-year [1][5]. - The company has successfully expanded its overseas operations, with expectations that overseas revenue will exceed 10 billion yuan in 2025, accounting for over 50% of total revenue [5][6]. - The company has completed an organizational restructuring to accelerate its global expansion strategy, focusing on regional headquarters in Greater China, the Americas, Asia-Pacific, and Europe [5][6]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 66.8% in 2024, an improvement of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by enhanced cost control and a higher proportion of high-margin overseas business [5][6]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be 5.9 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 73% [6][9]. - The company’s total revenue is expected to reach 20.9 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 60% [7][9]. Market and Product Insights - The company has 13 IPs that have generated over 100 million yuan in revenue, with significant contributions from various IPs such as labubu and molly, which saw year-on-year growth rates of 727% and 105%, respectively [5][6]. - The domestic market generated 7.97 billion yuan in revenue, a 52% increase year-on-year, while overseas revenue reached 5.07 billion yuan, a staggering 375% increase [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s PE ratios for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 34.8x and 25.8x, respectively, reflecting its growth potential and scarcity in the market [6][9]. - The report indicates a strong return on equity (ROE) of 29.3% for 2024, with expectations for continued improvement in subsequent years [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue in line with expectations for 2024, with net profit exceeding forecasts. The growth in bulk snacks continues, with market share accelerating towards the top [1] - The company is expected to continue gaining market share due to its leading capabilities across multiple dimensions, with significant elasticity in net profit margins [1] - Future potential for market capitalization growth is supported by the recovery of minority equity and the expansion of discount supermarket opportunities [1] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023: 9,294 million - 2024: 32,329 million (+248% YoY) - 2025E: 55,387 million (+71% YoY) - 2026E: 61,785 million (+12% YoY) - 2027E: 66,003 million (+7% YoY) [2][9] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023: -83 million - 2024: 294 million (+454% YoY) - 2025E: 749 million (+155% YoY) - 2026E: 910 million (+22% YoY) - 2027E: 1,171 million (+29% YoY) [2][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: -0.46 - 2024: 1.63 - 2025E: 4.16 - 2026E: 5.06 - 2027E: 6.51 [2][9] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 9.3% (2023) to 11.0% (2027E) - Net Margin: -0.9% (2023) to 1.8% (2027E) [9] Operational Highlights - The company opened over 9,652 new stores in 2024, with a closure rate of only 2.2%, resulting in a total of 14,196 stores by the end of Q4 2024 [7] - The bulk snack segment saw a revenue increase of 262.9% in 2024, while the edible fungus segment reported a slight revenue increase of 0.7% [7] - The company’s Q4 gross margin improved to 11.4%, with a net margin of 2.2%, reflecting enhanced supply chain efficiency and scale effects [7]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Recommended" based on the positive outlook for the industry fundamentals [2]. Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of the US-China tariff dispute on feed raw material prices, particularly focusing on soybean imports and their pricing dynamics [9][18]. - It is estimated that China's soybean import demand can be largely met by South American suppliers, with a projected domestic soybean supply gap of approximately 85 to 92 million tons [19][32]. - The report indicates that the price of South American soybeans is unlikely to see significant increases due to improved production costs and favorable climatic conditions [40][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Impact of US-China Tariff Dispute on Feed Raw Material Prices - The report highlights that the tariff increases on US agricultural products have significantly affected the competitiveness of US soybeans in the Chinese market [9]. - The current tariff rates have widened the price gap between US and South American soybeans, diminishing the former's market viability [9][10]. 2. Can Overseas Soybeans Effectively Meet China's Import Demand? - China's soybean consumption has been steadily increasing, with a notable reliance on imports, primarily from Brazil and Argentina [19][20]. - The report estimates that the domestic soybean supply gap could be between 85 to 92 million tons, but this can be effectively covered by imports from South America [19][32]. 3. Will South American Soybean Prices Remain Stable? - The report suggests that production costs for soybeans in Brazil are decreasing, which will limit upward pressure on prices [41]. - The anticipated neutral La Niña conditions for 2025 are expected to have minimal impact on soybean yields, supporting a stable price outlook [47][50]. 4. Elasticity Testing: Impact of Raw Material Price Fluctuations on Pig Feed Costs - The analysis indicates that fluctuations in corn and soybean meal prices will have a limited impact on pig feed costs, estimated to increase by 0.3 to 0.5 yuan per kilogram [53][54]. - The report provides detailed scenarios showing how changes in corn and soybean meal prices affect overall feed costs, with significant price increases being unlikely [54][59].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance exceeded expectations with a revenue growth of 30% and a net profit growth of 27% year-on-year [1][6] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 42.85 billion, 54.13 billion, and 66.04 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1][6] - The report highlights the company's successful expansion into peripheral markets, with a remarkable 125% year-on-year revenue growth in these regions [1][6] - The company is focusing on high-end product offerings, which are increasingly contributing to its revenue [1][6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 9.95 billion and a net profit of 1.31 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.1% and 27.27% respectively [1][6] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 53.32%, showing a slight decline of 1.04 percentage points year-on-year due to changes in channel structure and revenue mix [1][6] - The company’s operating cash flow showed a significant decline, with a net cash flow of 6.91 million, down 92.92% year-on-year, attributed to factors such as downstream payment terms and expense timing [1][6] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 3.65 billion, 4.73 billion, and 5.93 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 32, 24, and 20 [1][2][6] - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow at rates of 33%, 52%, 32%, 26%, and 22% from 2023 to 2027 [2][9] - The report indicates a steady improvement in the company's return on equity (ROE), expected to rise from 20% in 2024 to 29.3% in 2027 [3][9] Market Position - The company has successfully regained its position as the leading brand in the sanitary napkin category on Douyin, indicating effective brand management and marketing strategies [1][6] - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to nationwide expansion and product innovation as key drivers for increasing market share [1][6]

Domestic Economic Outlook - Short-term pressures on real estate and exports are evident, with midstream production affected by tariffs leading to a general decline in operating rates[1] - Upstream investment chain shows continued improvement, but the slope is flat, indicating insufficient fiscal policy strength to offset export downturns[1] - Recent transactions in the commodity housing market and second-hand housing listings remain weak[1] International Trade and Policy - The WTO forecasts a 0.2% decline in global merchandise trade this year, with a potential drop of 1.5% under extreme "reciprocal tariffs" scenarios, marking the largest decline since 2020[1] - The U.S. administration may shift focus from tariffs to a new tax reduction plan and financial deregulation as the 100-day policy review period ends[1] - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine/Japan could influence U.S. pressure on other non-American countries depending on the concessions made[1] Monetary and Liquidity Trends - The liquidity environment remains stable despite multiple disturbances, with the central bank's open market operations providing support[23] - The average weekly transaction volume in the interbank pledged repo market decreased to 63,252 billion yuan, down by 3,913 billion yuan from the previous week[24] - Government bond issuance reached 635.6 billion yuan this week, with net repayments significantly higher than the previous week[25] Asset Performance - A-share market shows mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.19% while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.54%[44] - International oil and gold prices have both increased, reflecting a positive trend in commodity markets[41] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets amid economic uncertainties[43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, estimating a net profit of 1.421 billion and 1.712 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to valuations of 23 and 19 times earnings [2][3]. Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 524.5 million, 29.5 million, and 29.3 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 11.63%, 42.1%, and 54.14% [1][6]. - The company benefits from the high-voltage construction sector, with a notable increase in high-margin product revenue contributing to improved profit margins [6][8]. - The company has a strong order pipeline, with 6.6 billion yuan in contracts awarded in 2024 for state grid transmission and transformation equipment, marking a 17% year-on-year increase [6][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue for 2024 is projected at 22.281 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6%. The net profit for the same year is expected to be 1.054 billion yuan, reflecting a 19% increase [2][14]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 21.02% in Q1 2025, up 3.17 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 7.04%, an increase of 1.63 percentage points [6][14]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 43.779 billion yuan in 2023 to 56.708 billion yuan by 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory [11][14]. Business Performance - The company’s transformer segment reported revenue of 9.218 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.83%, with a gross margin of 14.35% [6][8]. - The switchgear segment generated 8.504 billion yuan in revenue, up 10.97% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 26.52% [6][8]. - The company has a strong cash position with approximately 8 billion yuan in net cash and a debt ratio of 44.96% [6][8].

Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the issue of value and growth style switching based on odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was 0.88%, while the value style portfolio achieved a return of 1.77% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.03, and for the value style, it is 1.07, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rates indicate that 3 out of 7 indicators favor growth, while 4 favor value, resulting in a win rate of 46.13% for growth and 53.87% for value [3][16] Group 3 - The investment expectation formula yields a value style investment expectation of 0.11 and a growth style expectation of -0.06, leading to a recommendation for the value style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 26.20%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.96 [4][18]