证券研究报告| 策略专题报告 2025年04月22日 《从出口视角看新地缘政治格局 下的 A 股投资机会——观策天夏 (二十六)》 从两轮关税的复盘对比、出口格局变化看行业配置线索 行业比较深度系列(0422) 近期美国对华关税 2.0 卷土重来,成为影响市场的重要风险点。本文将详细 复盘 2018年美国对华贸易摩擦对 A 股的影响,并梳理两次贸易争端的差异 以及近几年我国出口格局的变化,探寻行业布局的线索。 相关报告 S1090513080006 张夏 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 陈星宇 S1090522070004 chenxingyu@cmschina.com.cn 李昊阳 S1090524120005 lihaoyang1@cmschina.com.cn 在关税摩擦不确定性较大的背景下,行业配置方面,重点推荐关注三条线索: ■ 1)对美风险出口风险敞口较小的领域,如 PCB、稀土、摩托车、白电等; 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 杨晨 (研究助理) yangchen4@cmschina.com.cn CMS @ 招商证券 专题报告 2018年贸易争端对 A 股影响的复盘。回顾特朗普第一 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 招商研究一周回顾 （0411-0418） 招商研发宏观组与策略组重要观点回顾摘要： 宏观组。 1、3 月经济数据点评.往后看，在中美贸易环境承压的背景下，内需托底经济的 政策有望进一步加码。刺激消费的以旧换新政策或将产品范围扩大至服务领域， 超长期特别国债或向新基建和新质生产力相关的行业重点倾斜。受到美国关税 因素扰动，预计二季度 GDP 增速有所回落。考虑到 Q2 属于政策端观望期，因 此，全年经济或仍呈现 N 字形。 2、2025 年 3 月进出口数据点评.往后看，中美互征关税或对我国进出口增速会 造成明显的短期扰动，短期我国对美的直接出口或明显下行，尤其是对美国市 场依赖度较高的商品出口增速降幅可能更大（具体商品可参考《互征关税对国 内经济的影响测算》），但我国对其他国家的出口或仍有一定韧性。近年来， 贸易摩擦有加剧趋势，较长时间维度看，面对欧美等发达市场，中国加工贸易 或面临一定程度的订单流失风险，出口企业亟需向新兴市场（中亚、中东）拓 展。在外需环境承压的背景下，我国"稳外贸"、"稳增长"的措施有望继续加码。 策略组。 1、关税冲击后 A 股重回上行周期。今年四月下旬 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report shows that the weekly economic index has declined, with production and some sectors like real - estate sales slowing down, while consumption and exports have shown signs of recovery, and there are changes in CPI and PPI with农产品 prices rising and工业品 prices falling [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Economic Index - The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) last week was 5.6%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. The WEI production sub - index was 6.3%, down 0.4 percentage points, and the WEI demand sub - index was 5.1%, down 0.3 percentage points. The supply - demand gap was - 1.3%, down 0.1 percentage points [1]. 3.2 Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production was 8.3%, down 0.1 percentage points. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.6%, up 0.3 percentage points. The PTA industrial chain load rate was 75.6%, down 1.2 percentage points. The car semi - steel tire operating rate was 78.4%, down 0.1 percentage points [1]. 3.3 Infrastructure - The cement shipment rate was 40.3%, down 2.5 percentage points. The cement mill operation rate was 44.6%, up 0.1 percentage points. The petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 28.7%, up 1.1 percentage points [1]. 3.4 Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was - 9.1%, down 3.5 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land area of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities was - 8.5%, down 19.3 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Consumption - The year - on - year of the daily average retail sales of passenger cars was 13.0%, up 11.0 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office was - 53.9%, down 2.0 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of domestic flight execution numbers was 1.4%, up 0.1 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen was 1.2%, down 0.8 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Exports - South Korea's exports in early April were up 13.6% year - on - year, up 12.4 percentage points from late March. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was - 21.2%, up 0.7 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was flat compared with the previous value [2]. 3.7 CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index was - 2.7%, up 0.5 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork was 1.4%, down 0.7 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was - 3.2%, up 0.9 percentage points [3]. 3.8 PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index was - 4.7%, down 1.9 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Brent crude oil spot price was - 21.5%, down 2.1 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the rebar price was - 9.4%, down 0.8 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Qinhuangdao Port steam coal flat - price was - 18.8%, up 0.2 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the cement price index was 20.0%, down 0.6 percentage points [3].

乖宝宠物（301498.SZ） 24 年自主品牌势能强劲，25Q1 收入表现超预期 消费品/农林牧渔 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 22 日 公司发布 2024 年报和 25 年一季报，24 年公司收入/归母净利润分别同比 +21.2%/+45.7%。25Q1 增长势能强劲，国内/海外增速延续。弗列加特成功打 造"大红桶冻干"、"高机能烘焙粮"两大明星系列，后续增长势能有望延续， 麦富迪品牌增长稳健。境外业务 24 年表现较好，25 年受关税影响略有不确定 性，但整体美国风险敞口可控。中长期看好公司在中国市场占据份额第一、高 端宠粮战略升级确定性。我们调整 25-26 年收入预测为 65/79 亿，归母净利润 分别 8.2 亿/10.5 亿，25-26 年 EPS 分别为 2.04/2.61 元，对应 25 年 50x，维 持"强烈推荐"评级。 强烈推荐（维持） 当前股价：101.35 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 400 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 179 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 40.5 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 18.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" investment rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's profitability continues to improve, with a significant acceleration in the pace of domestic computing chip localization [1][6] - The company’s revenue and net profit are expected to grow substantially over the next few years, with projected revenues of 12.9 billion, 16.95 billion, and 22.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1][6] - The report highlights the positive impact of U.S. export restrictions on high-end chips, which is expected to benefit domestic computing chip companies [6] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6.012 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17% [1] - Operating profit is expected to reach 4.008 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 44% year-on-year increase [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 2.934 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 52% [1] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 282.9 in 2023 to 66.3 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [1][12] Stock Performance - The stock has shown a 87% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the benchmark index [4] Key Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 63% in the coming years, while the net margin is projected to improve to 24.4% by 2027 [12] - Return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to rise from 7.1% in 2023 to 19.3% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 results that exceeded expectations, with revenue, profit, and net profit increasing by 146%, 336%, and 448% year-on-year, respectively [1][33]. - The company has successfully entered the high-barrier and high-value European offshore wind market, with expectations for domestic onshore and offshore wind businesses to also exceed forecasts [33]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4,325 million in 2023 to 6,020 million in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59% [2]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 425 million in 2023 to 927 million in 2025E, corresponding to a 96% year-on-year growth [2]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 41.6 in 2023 to 19.1 in 2025E, indicating improved valuation metrics [2]. Quarterly Performance Analysis - Q1 2025 saw the highest quarterly revenue and net profit in the last 15 years, with a gross margin of 30.95% and a net margin of 20.25% [7][8]. - The company’s operational segment is expected to contribute approximately 40 million in net profit for Q1 2025 [8]. Business Segment Insights - The company has a robust presence in the European offshore wind market, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate of 36% for offshore wind installations in Europe from 2024 to 2027 [18]. - Domestic onshore wind business is anticipated to exceed expectations, with a significant increase in wind power bidding volumes projected for 2024 [28][29]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 927 million and 1,196 million in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a corresponding PE of 19X and 15X [7][33].

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 04 月 22 日 从两轮关税的复盘对比、出口格局变化看行业配置线索 ——行业比较深度系列（0422） 近期美国对华关税 2.0 卷土重来，成为影响市场的重要风险点。本文将详细 复盘 2018 年美国对华贸易摩擦对 A 股的影响，并梳理两次贸易争端的差异 以及近几年我国出口格局的变化，探寻行业布局的线索。 专题报告 相关报告 《从出口视角看新地缘政治格局 下的 A 股投资机会——观策天夏 （二十六）》 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 陈星宇 S1090522070004 chenxingyu@cmschina.com.cn 李昊阳 S1090524120005 lihaoyang1@cmschina.com.cn 杨晨 （研究助理） yangchen4@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 3、《PC 其他报告 31 重新提 交 1》2023-03-01 ❑ 2018 年贸易争端对 A 股影响的复盘。回顾特朗普第一任期对华贸易争端，市 场整体呈现"先抑后扬"的局面，整体风格以大盘为主。行业涨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company [1][10] Core Views - In 2024, the company's revenue and profit are expected to decline by 1.91% and 29.07% year-on-year, respectively, due to increased expenses and losses from shop sales [2][10] - The company is focusing on controlling discounts and improving gross margins across channels, with an expected net profit of 5.17 billion, 5.86 billion, and 6.55 billion for 2025-2027 [10][12] Revenue Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 51.53 billion, slightly down from the previous year, with a net profit of 4.95 billion [2][9] - The fourth quarter of 2024 shows a revenue increase of 1.97% year-on-year, but a significant decline in net profit by 44.17% [2] Brand Performance - Revenue breakdown by brand shows a decline for Baoxiniang and Kaimiqie, while Le Fei Ye has a significant growth of 27.95% [3][4] - The number of stores for Baoxiniang increased by 4 to 821, while Haji Si saw an increase of 21 stores to 478 [3] Channel Performance - Online revenue for 2024 is expected to grow by 1.65%, while offline revenue is declining despite an increase in store numbers [4][10] - The company has seen a decrease in revenue from both direct and franchise stores, with a total of 1,815 stores by the end of 2024 [8] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 was 52.54 billion, with a projected increase to 54.52 billion in 2025 [9][12] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 11X for 2025 and 9.5X for 2026 [10][12] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to improve to 65.02%, with a net profit margin of 10.09% [10][13] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.3% for 2025, indicating stable profitability [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company has achieved significant performance improvements in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in pig sales and industry-leading per-head profitability [1][6] - The overall livestock market is experiencing favorable conditions, coupled with substantial cost improvements, driving a significant turnaround in 2024 [1][6] - The company is expected to continue expanding its market presence outside of East China, with projected annual growth rates of 8-10% for yellow feathered chicken output [6] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 15.35 billion yuan in 2023 to 25.92 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14% [2][18] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.93 billion yuan in 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 2.33 yuan [2][18] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 17.7% in the most recent period to 22.5% by 2027 [3][19] Performance Highlights - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit of 210 million yuan, reflecting a 157% increase compared to the previous year [6][16] - The company’s pig segment is expected to maintain a leading position in profitability, with per-head earnings projected to be between 270-280 yuan [6][16] - The yellow feathered chicken output is anticipated to reach approximately 5.68 billion birds by 2025, with a sales price of around 17.3 yuan per kilogram [2][13] Business Segments - The yellow feathered chicken segment is projected to contribute significantly to revenue, with expected sales of 162.2 billion yuan in 2025 [2][13] - The pig segment is also expected to see substantial growth, with sales projected to reach 33.53 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a 15% increase from the previous year [2][13] Market Outlook - The report indicates that the current low inventory levels of parent breeding chickens are setting the stage for potential price increases in the poultry market [6] - The company’s cost structure is improving, with total costs expected to drop below 13 yuan per kilogram, enhancing its competitive pricing advantage [6][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the trading tracking of ultra - long credit bonds, analyzing the changes in trading volume, trading price, and low - valuation trading proportion of ultra - long credit bonds, ultra - long urban investment bonds, and ultra - long industrial bonds in the week from April 14th to April 18th, 2025, and comparing them with previous weeks [1][2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ultra - long Credit Bonds: Volume Rise and Decline in Low - valuation Transaction Proportion - **Trading Volume**: The daily trading activity of ultra - long credit bonds increased, with an average of 3.2 daily transactions (previous value: 2.9). The trading volume of ultra - long credit bonds with a remaining maturity of 10 - 15 years increased significantly. However, the total trading volume decreased to 296 billion yuan, a 13.2% week - on - week decline, mainly due to the decrease in bonds with a remaining maturity of 7 - 10 years. Industrial bonds were more actively traded than urban investment bonds [2][11]. - **Trading Term**: The average trading term of ultra - long credit bonds decreased to 9.93 years, a 0.65 - year decline. The average trading term of ultra - long urban investment bonds increased by 0.03 years, while that of industrial bonds decreased by 0.69 years [3][13]. - **Trading Price**: The trading yield of ultra - long credit bonds rose to 2.37%, a 7 - bp increase. The trading yield of ultra - long urban investment bonds decreased by 5 bp, and that of ultra - long industrial bonds increased by 7 bp. The proportion of low - valuation transactions decreased to 46%, with a significant decline in ultra - long industrial bonds from 59% to 44%. The proportion of low - valuation transactions of bonds with a remaining maturity of 20 - 30 years decreased by about 33 percentage points [3][13]. 3.2 Ultra - long Urban Investment Bonds: Rising Volume in Shandong and Fujian, Marginal Increase in Low - valuation Transaction Proportion in Fujian - **Trading Volume**: Shandong had a high trading volume of 38.3 billion yuan. The trading volume of ultra - long urban investment bonds in Sichuan and Shaanxi decreased by 5.4 billion yuan and 2.3 billion yuan respectively. The trading volume in Shandong and Fujian increased [4][15]. - **Trading Term**: The average trading term was 9.73 years. The trading term in Shandong increased by 2.18 years, while that in Shaanxi decreased by 3.76 years [4][16]. - **Trading Price**: Zhejiang had a high trading yield of over 3%. The trading yields in Henan and Guangdong increased by 30 bp and 13 bp respectively, while those in Anhui and Shandong decreased by 99 bp and 55 bp respectively. The proportion of low - valuation transactions in Beijing decreased by 49 percentage points, while that in Fujian increased [4][16]. 3.3 Ultra - long Industrial Bonds: Rising Volume in Comprehensive and Basic Chemical Industries, Decline in Low - valuation Transaction Proportion in Machinery and Public Utilities - **Trading Volume**: The comprehensive industry had a high trading volume of 57.7 billion yuan. The trading volume in the comprehensive and basic chemical industries increased by 27.5 billion yuan and 9.5 billion yuan respectively, while that in the public utilities industry decreased by about 99.8 billion yuan [5][19]. - **Trading Term**: The trading terms of non - bank finance and real estate industries decreased by 3.98 years and 2.97 years respectively, while those of transportation and public utilities industries increased by 4.23 years and 1.39 years respectively [5][22]. - **Trading Price**: The trading yields of transportation and machinery industries increased by 83 bp and 24 bp respectively. The proportion of low - valuation transactions in steel, electronics, social services, and commercial retail industries was as high as 100%. The proportion of low - valuation transactions in machinery and public utilities industries decreased [7][22].