1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly economic index declined, with the China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) at 5.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The production sub - index decreased while the demand sub - index increased, and the supply - demand gap widened [1]. - Production showed a downward trend, with a decline in the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production and a significant drop in the automobile semi - steel tire operating rate [1]. - Infrastructure high - frequency indicators remained flat, with a slight decline in cement shipping and grinding rates and a slight increase in the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate [1]. - The growth rate of commercial housing sales slowed down, and the floor area of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly [2]. - Consumption increased, with improvements in movie box office and domestic flight execution numbers, but a slight decline in the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [2]. - Exports decreased, as indicated by the sharp decline in South Korea's export year - on - year in early May and the drop in shipping freight rate indices [2]. - The price of pork increased, while the overall agricultural product wholesale price index decreased slightly. Industrial product prices generally declined [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Economic Index - The WEI was 5.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The production sub - index was 5.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, and the demand sub - index was 5.8%, up 0.3 percentage points. The supply - demand gap was 0.8%, up 0.9 percentage points [1]. 3.2 Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production was 2.4%, down 3.4 percentage points. The blast furnace operating rate was 84.6%, up 0.2 percentage points. The automobile semi - steel tire operating rate was 58.4%, down 14.0 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average daily coal consumption of coastal power plants was 1.1%, down 0.9 percentage points [1]. 3.3 Infrastructure - The cement shipping rate was 39.3%, down 1.2 percentage points. The cement mill operating rate was 41.7%, down 1.8 percentage points. The petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 28.8%, up 0.5 percentage points [1]. 3.4 Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was - 8.1%, up 4.3 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the floor area of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities was - 17.4%, down 15.8 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Consumption - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office was - 43.0%, up 0.8 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of domestic flight execution numbers was 4.2%, up 1.0 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen was 2.6%, down 0.2 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Exports - South Korea's export year - on - year in early May was - 23.8%, down 43.1 percentage points from late April. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was - 33.6%, down 5.5 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was - 28.9%, down 4.6 percentage points [2]. 3.7 CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index was - 2.6%, down 0.3 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork was 1.5%, up 0.3 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was - 5.9%, down 2.3 percentage points [3]. 3.8 PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index was - 9.4%, down 0.3 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Brent crude oil spot price was - 24.8%, up 1.1 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the rebar price was - 12.7%, down 0.9 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Qinhuangdao Port steam coal closing price was - 21.3%, down 2.0 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the cement price index was 15.8%, down 1.9 percentage points [3].

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 05 月 13 日 猪价淡季不淡，上市猪企实现扭亏 生猪养殖行业 2024 年报以及 25Q1 一季报总结 消费品/农林牧渔 25Q1，猪价整体淡季不淡、饲料价格下降、仔猪占比提升共同推动上市猪企 实现扭亏，而行业商品猪养殖成本方差仍大，优质猪企 25 年仍有望凭借低成 本优势获取可观利润、持续修复资产负债表。重点推荐牧原股份、温氏股份， 建议关注神农集团、东瑞股份等。 ❑ 风险提示：畜禽及粮食价格波动超预期，突发大规模不可控疾病，极端天 气，重大食品安全事件，上市公司销量/成本不达预期等。 重点公司主要财务指标 | 公司简称 | 公司代码 | 市值 | 24EPS | 25EPS | 25PE | PB | 投资评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 002714.SZ | 214.4 | 3.27 | 3.86 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 强烈推荐 | | 温氏股份 | 300498.SZ | 110.7 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 12.1 | 2.6 | 强烈推荐 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 中美阶段性互降关税有何影响 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 17 期） 频率：每周 中美阶段性互降关税将缓解短期内国内经济和政策压力并提升市场风险偏好水 平。 风险提示：地缘政治风险、国内政策落地不及预期、全球衰退及主要经济体货 币政策超预期。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《谈判的底气——宏观与大 类资产周报》2025-05-11 2、《票据融资或创新高——4 月金融数据预测》2025-05-09 3、《央国企动态系列报告之 38 ——央企盈利略有放缓，价值 创造能力保持领先优势》2025- 05-07 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 中美经贸磋商为何能达成超预期的成果？正如我们此前的报告和路演中所提 到了，中美贸易摩擦对两国的冲击是有所区别的。对美国而言，将中国排除 其供应链体系，美国供给将出现较大缺口。按照美方数据，去年自中国进口 金额占比达到 13%。而供给 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expected outperformance of the industry index compared to the benchmark index [3][9]. Core Insights - The US-China trade friction is expected to significantly ease, which may lead to a valuation recovery for leading OEMs in the manufacturing sector [1][7]. - Strong order stability is noted among leading manufacturers, with a focus on those with robust cross-regional capacity layout, high profit margins, quality customer structures, and strong order certainty [1][7]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 295 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1784.7 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 1558.7 billion [3]. - Recent performance metrics show an absolute performance of 13.1% over one month, 4.3% over six months, and 7.3% over twelve months, with relative performance of 8.8%, 10.6%, and 2.3% respectively [5]. Key Companies and Projections - **Jiuxing Holdings**: A leading manufacturer of sports fashion footwear with strong design and production efficiency, expected net profits of 190 million, 211 million, and 232 million USD for 2025-2027, corresponding to a PE of 9.5X for 2025 [7]. - **Jingyuan International**: A global leader in garment manufacturing, projected net profits of 234 million, 274 million, and 317 million USD for 2025-2027, with a current market cap corresponding to a PE of 8X for 2025 [7]. - **Shenzhou International**: A leading garment OEM with improving capacity utilization and efficiency, expected net profits of 6.61 billion, 7.25 billion, and 7.98 billion CNY for 2025-2027, corresponding to a PE of 12.5X for 2025 [7]. - **Huali Group**: A leading manufacturer of sports and leisure footwear, with projected net profits of 4.13 billion, 4.72 billion, and 5.39 billion CNY for 2025-2027, corresponding to a PE of 16X for 2025 [7]. - **Weixing Co.**: A company pursuing internationalization, benefiting from its Vietnam factory, with a current market cap corresponding to a PE of 18X for 2025 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [3] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 4.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.4 billion yuan, up 6.5% year-on-year [1][7] - The growth in container throughput exceeded expectations, with a total cargo throughput of 177.06 million tons in Q1 2025, representing a 2.9% year-on-year increase, and container throughput of 8.22 million TEUs, up 7.2% year-on-year [7] - The company benefits from a strong regional advantage and a high proportion of profitable segments, particularly in container and liquid bulk cargo [7] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 18.173 billion yuan in 2023, 18.941 billion yuan in 2024, and 19.6 billion yuan in 2025E, with a growth rate of -6%, 4%, and 3% respectively [2][14] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.923 billion yuan in 2023, 5.235 billion yuan in 2024, and 5.513 billion yuan in 2025E, with growth rates of 9%, 6%, and 5% respectively [2][14] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 11.9 in 2023 to 10.6 in 2025E, indicating a potential for valuation re-rating [2][14] Performance Metrics - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 38.6% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is reported at 12.1%, which is among the highest in the industry [3][7] - The company maintains a low debt ratio of 26.0%, indicating strong financial health [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with net profits projected to reach 5.513 billion yuan in 2025, 5.745 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.975 billion yuan in 2027 [7] - The dividend payout ratio is expected to be 40%, with corresponding dividend yields of 3.8% for A-shares and 6.1% for H-shares in 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Strongly Recommended" [1][6]. Core Views - The company has reversed a trend of declining performance over the past four quarters, achieving a remarkable year-on-year growth of 32% in non-recurring profit for Q1 2025. This is attributed to the continuous enhancement of its smart TV business capabilities, rapid global market share growth, and exceeding expectations in its proprietary brand business. The launch of innovative products such as AI glasses and expansion into overseas markets are expected to drive significant growth in the innovative display product segment [1][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.142 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 210 million yuan, up 16% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit reached 180 million yuan, marking a 32% increase year-on-year. The revenue growth by business segments includes smart interaction, innovative products, and TV revenue increasing by 10%, 50%, and 6% respectively, with sales volume growth of 16.5%, 64%, and 31% [6][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has effectively addressed tariff risks through its global super factory MTO overseas cooperation plan, resulting in a significant sales volume increase of 31%, outperforming the market average growth of 3.5% for the top ten global TV ODM factories in Q1 2025. The company is also actively expanding its three proprietary brands (KTC, Haoli, FPD) into overseas markets, with products listed on platforms like Amazon and Temu [6][7]. Product Innovation - The innovative display segment is experiencing high growth, with the company actively exploring AI, AR, and VR applications. The FPD brand has launched a VR glasses series, while KTC is expected to introduce AI interactive glasses. The interactive flat panel market is projected to grow by 3.5% in 2025, driven by educational and commercial applications [6][7]. Profitability and Forecast - The company's gross margin improved by 0.75 percentage points year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a net profit margin increase of 0.3 percentage points to 6.8%. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.059 billion yuan, 1.242 billion yuan, and 1.474 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 17%, and 19% respectively [6][7][12].

证券研究报告|行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 降准降息推进稳楼市，"好房子"时代头部品牌受益 建材行业定期报告 中游制造/建材 本周（2025/5/5-2025/5/10）建材动态：水泥需求有所减弱，价格回落延续； 浮法玻璃市场价格下滑，出货普遍较弱；玻纤中，无碱粗纱市场价格调后暂 稳，电子纱市场稳价为主。周内降息释放积极信号，"好房子"建设要求利 好消费建材头部品牌。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 96 | 1.9 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 769.4 | 0.9 | | 流通市值（十亿 | 704.0 | 0.9 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 8.5 -6.1 0.6 相对表现 4.2 0.2 -4.4 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 May/24 Aug/24 Dec/24 Apr/25 (%) 建材 沪深300 相关报告 1、《建材行业定期报告—提振内需 预期加强，地产企稳助力估值修复》 2025-04-22 2、《建材行业定期报告—提振内需 预 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [8][3]. Core Views - The company achieved a cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders of 5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 58.6%, indicating potential pressure on future revenue growth and a gradual bottoming of settlement gross margin [8][1]. - The company remains the industry leader in sales, with a focus on new investments, and is actively revitalizing existing resources while optimizing land reserve structure [8][7]. - Financing costs are continuously decreasing, with an increase in direct financing proportion, and the company has received approval from the CSRC for a convertible bond issuance [8][7]. - The company's asset management is steadily developing, with a continuous expansion of property service scale [8][7]. - EPS is projected to be 0.43, 0.44, and 0.55 yuan for 2025-2027, indicating the company's ability to navigate through cycles and potentially benefit from an improved competitive landscape if the industry recovers [8][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 311.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, with a net profit of 5 billion yuan, down 59% from the previous year [2][15]. - The gross margin decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 13.9% due to declining housing prices and an increase in the proportion of low-profit projects [1][15]. - The company’s total liabilities amounted to 992.58 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 74.3% [3][15]. Sales and Investment - The company maintained its position as the industry leader in sales, achieving a signed sales area of 17.97 million square meters in 2024, a decrease of 24.7% year-on-year, with a sales amount of 323 billion yuan, down 23.5% [7][8]. - New land acquisitions in 2024 totaled 68.3 billion yuan, a decline of 58.1% year-on-year, with 99% of the investment concentrated in core areas of major cities [7][8]. - The company has successfully revitalized approximately 2.7 million square meters of existing land resources, releasing over 10 billion yuan in capital [7][8]. Asset Management and Property Services - As of the end of 2024, the company had opened 534,000 square meters of commercial assets, generating approximately 4 billion yuan in revenue [7][8]. - The property management segment reported a revenue of 11.67 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15% [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating with a target price of 60.00 CNY, while the current stock price is 32.08 CNY [2][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 268.8 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.91%, and a net profit of 13.366 billion CNY, up 22.03% year-on-year [5][15]. - For Q1 2025, the company forecasts a revenue of 61.8 billion CNY, a 17.9% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.044 billion CNY, reflecting a 23.17% growth [5][15]. - The company is optimistic about its performance in the first half of 2025, projecting a net profit range of 6.475 to 6.745 billion CNY, which corresponds to a growth of 20-25% [5][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 268.8 billion CNY, with a net profit of 13.366 billion CNY, aligning with market expectations [5][15]. - The Q4 2024 revenue was 91.6 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.5% [5][15]. - The company reported a gross margin of 10.41% for 2024, down from 11.58% in 2023, primarily due to underutilization of capacity and losses in certain product lines [15][16]. Business Segments - The consumer electronics segment generated 224.1 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.65% [6][15]. - The communication segment saw a revenue of 18.359 billion CNY, growing by 26.29% year-on-year, driven by component business growth [7][30]. - The automotive segment reported a revenue of 13.7 billion CNY, with a growth rate nearing 50% [8][30]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a stock option incentive plan for 2025, aiming to grant 221.5 million options, which is about 3.06% of the total share capital [9][10]. - The company is focusing on vertical integration and expanding its product lines across various sectors, including smart home, health care, and automotive [19][20]. - The communication business is expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI infrastructure, with significant investments anticipated in the coming years [27][30]. Future Outlook - The company projects revenues of 321.7 billion CNY for 2025, with a net profit of 16.211 billion CNY, indicating a continued growth trajectory [11][10]. - The automotive business is expected to grow significantly, with plans to become a leading Tier 1 supplier in the global automotive parts market [8][30]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on trends in AI and smart technologies, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [26][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved stable revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue of 4.612 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 801 million yuan, up 6.44% year-on-year [5][6] - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a significant recovery with a revenue of 1.074 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.31%, and a net profit of 170 million yuan, up 53.85% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has shown strong performance in its superconducting business, with notable increases in revenue from superconducting materials and magnets due to heightened market demand [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 33.55%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 18.99%, up 0.61 percentage points year-on-year [5][6] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to 5.372 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding net profit of 936 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17% [6][12] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) for 2024 was 12.5%, with expectations to rise to 13.6% in 2025 [2][13] Product Performance Summary - High-end titanium alloy materials generated revenue of 2.752 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 38.67%, an increase of 4.26 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Superconducting wire revenue reached 1.304 billion yuan, up 32.41% year-on-year, although the gross margin decreased to 30.22% [5] - High-performance high-temperature alloy materials saw a revenue decline to 327 million yuan, down 31.02% year-on-year, but with a gross margin improvement to 22.25% [5] Cost Control and Profitability - The company has effectively controlled costs, with selling expenses decreasing by 8.51% and financial expenses down by 21.30% in 2024 [5] - R&D expenses increased by 6.51% to 351 million yuan, indicating a commitment to maintaining technological leadership [5] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 936 million yuan in 2025, 1.077 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.223 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 35, 30, and 27 [5][6]