Group 1: Supply Chain Security as a Focus of Great Power Competition - The report highlights that supply chain security has become a focal point in the geopolitical competition, particularly between the U.S. and China, with increased measures to weaken China's advantages in shipping and energy resources [4][7][13]. Group 2: Energy Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Investment Opportunities - The report details the vulnerabilities in the energy supply chain, emphasizing the high import dependency rates for various energy sources, such as crude oil (72%), liquefied natural gas (79%), and nickel (100%) [4][14][27]. - It suggests that the oil and gas sectors, particularly crude oil and liquefied natural gas, are critical areas for short-term investment due to their exposure to supply chain risks [4][14][27]. Group 3: Metal Mineral Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Investment Opportunities - The report outlines the high import dependency for key metals, including iron ore (54%), copper (92.9%), and manganese (98%), indicating a significant reliance on foreign sources [4][43][52]. - It identifies potential investment opportunities in the metal sector, particularly in companies involved in the extraction and processing of these minerals, given the ongoing demand and supply chain challenges [4][43][52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company has experienced significant profit growth, with both 2024 and Q1 2025 profits showing high increases due to the recovery of its main business and the release of AI computing demand [1][7] - The company is well-positioned for long-term growth in the AI computing sector, having established a subsidiary focused on providing high-performance infrastructure products for AI applications [7] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 30.33 billion in 2022 to 58.09 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% [2][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1.19 billion in 2022 to 3.33 billion in 2026, reflecting a significant recovery and growth trajectory [2][11] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.48 in 2022 to 1.33 in 2026, indicating strong profitability improvements [2][11] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 86.7 in 2022 to 31.0 in 2026, suggesting a more attractive valuation as earnings grow [2][11] Business Performance - The company reported a revenue of 40.34 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.06%, and a net profit of 1.25 billion, up 280.73% from the previous year [7] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.53 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.41% [7] - The company has seen a significant increase in orders for its AI computing services, indicating strong demand and a positive outlook for future revenue recognition [7] Strategic Initiatives - The company has invested in establishing a subsidiary, Tengyun Zhikuan, to enhance its capabilities in providing comprehensive AI computing services [7] - The launch of new products that integrate with the DeepSeek model has positioned the company to capitalize on the growing AI market [7]

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 04 月 10 日 经营质量有待优化，推荐拓品类&渠道运营力强的品牌龙头 港股运动鞋服 2024 年报综述 消费品/轻工纺服 2024 年运动鞋服龙头流水承压，盈利能力及营运能力下滑。目前需求细分化趋 势持续演绎，国际运动鞋服龙头推新加速，有望提升细分赛道景气度。建议重 点关注在拓品类&优化渠道进度快，品牌影响力高的品牌，有望在市场波动情 况下保持经营稳健，在需求回暖的情况下获取份额。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 295 | 5.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 1617.6 | 2.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 1419.3 | 1.9 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -8.7 -7.5 -0.6 相对表现 -2.2 -0.7 -4.9 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Apr/24 Jul/24 Nov/24 Mar/25 (%) 轻工纺服 沪深300 相关报告 1、《纺织服装海外趋势跟踪（2025 年 3 月）— ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in 2024 with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 1.345 billion, 311 million, and 302 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 40.22%, 96.17%, and 102.17%, which is in line with the forecast range [1][8] - The company has effectively controlled costs, resulting in improved profit margins in Q4 2024, with a gross margin of 43.62% and a net margin of 23.1%, both showing significant year-on-year increases [8] - The company has achieved substantial growth across its business segments, particularly in overseas markets, with notable increases in contract revenue and product sales [8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 959 million yuan in 2023 to 1.892 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 41% [3][12] - **Profitability**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 158 million yuan in 2023 to 411 million yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 32% [3][12] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.37 yuan in 2023 to 0.95 yuan in 2025 [3][13] - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 63.4 in 2023 to 24.5 in 2025, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [3][13] Business Segment Performance - **Revenue by Segment**: In 2024, the company reported revenue from various segments: 879 million yuan from composite insulators for substations, 223 million yuan from rubber seals, and 209 million yuan from composite insulators for transmission and transformation lines, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.71%, 14.1%, and 126.57% respectively [8] - **International Market Expansion**: The company has successfully expanded its overseas business, achieving 742 million yuan in overseas revenue in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 43.05% [8] Competitive Advantages - The company holds a significant market share in the high-end composite insulator market, supplying over 80% of the composite insulator products for more than 70 ultra-high voltage substations [8] - The company is transitioning from being primarily an equipment supplier to a comprehensive solution provider, which is expected to enhance its business scale and market presence [8]

敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 4 月 10 日 把握新质生产力机遇，掘金深市核心资产 ——大成深证 100ETF 投资价值分析 2023 年以来，政府持续加大对新质生产力的重视程度，相关政策制度不断完 善。深圳证券市场汇聚了众多高科技创新企业，研发投入连年增长，高质量发 展态势显著。从市值和成长价值风格来看，深证 100 指数（399330.SZ）具有 明显的大盘成长属性，契合当前市场风格投资需求。大成深证 100ETF （159216.OF）紧密跟踪该指数，费率低廉，值得投资者关注。 风险提示：本报告仅作为投资参考，基金产品过往业绩并不预示其未来表现， 亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议，新发基金无历史业绩可参考。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 刘凯 S1090524120001 liukai11@ cmschina.com.cn 杨航 S1090523010004 yanghang4@cmschina.com.cn 专题报告 ❑ 中国经济转型正处于关键时期，亟需从要素驱动转向创新驱动，实现内涵 式增长。"新质生产力"应 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 04 月 10 日 离境退税"即买即退"全国推广，利好国货入驻免税店 免税行业政策点评 消费品/商业 4 月 8 日，国家税务总局发布《关于推广境外旅客购物离境退税"即买即退"服 务措施的公告》，对离境退税"即买即退"的主要内容、办理流程和施行时间作 出明确规定，将该项服务措施从多地试点推广至全国。"即买即退"作为一项 便利服务举措，是"离境退税"政策的升级优化，旨在为境外旅客提供更加便 捷、多样化的退税选择。与传统离境退税的办理流程相比，'即买即退'最大 的特色和亮点在于，将退税环节提前，境外旅客在购物环节就能拿到退税款， 更加直观地感受到退税带来的实惠，有利于旅客在购物现场领取退税款用于再 消费。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 133 | 2.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 1128.3 | 1.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 1038.3 | 1.4 | 行业指数 丁浙川 S1090519070002 dingzhechuan@cmschina.com.cn 李秀敏 S1 ...

Group 1: Tariff Policy Insights - Trump announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariff policies, implementing a 10% baseline tariff instead[1] - The suspension indicates a need for more negotiation time, as no agreements were reached with other economies during the one-week window[2] - The focus of Trump's administration is shifting from tariffs to tax reform and deregulation as the 100-day agenda approaches its end[2] Group 2: Economic Impact Analysis - The U.S. GDP is projected to decline by 5.97% over 3-5 years due to high tariffs, with China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico seeing declines of 2.86%, 1.86%, 0.46%, and 0.21% respectively[6] - U.S. CPI is expected to rise by 3.57% over the same period, while China's CPI may change by 0.38%[12] - U.S. exports are forecasted to drop by 17.40%, with China's exports declining by 12.54% over 3-5 years[16] - U.S. imports are anticipated to decrease by 19.52%, with China's imports down by 8.77%[18] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The S&P 500 index typically adjusts by around 20% during economic slowdowns, with potential government interventions to mitigate risks[3] - If no additional tariffs are imposed, the likelihood of a recovery in U.S. stock markets in Q2 is high, contingent on the performance of major indices[3] - The impact of tariffs on trade, output, and inflation is expected to fluctuate in the short term but will stabilize in the long term[4]

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 04 月 10 日 风电系列报告（13） 交付起量，制造环节盈利有望持续改善 中游制造/电力设备及新能源 2024 年风电招标量同比增长 90%，预计 2025 年行业将进入密集交付期，上游 制造环节盈利有望持续改善。目前，零部件环节在建工程增速转负、资本开支 已显著放缓，随着交付起量，此前资本开支所形成的固定成本将被有效摊薄， 叠加部分环节有望提价，预计盈利将持续改善。此外，国内整机招标价格触底， 整机出口海外也持续有积极进展，预计整机环节盈利也有改善空间。 ❑ 风险提示：2025 年行业交付节奏放缓、国内招标价格继续下降、新兴市场不 及预期。 重点公司主要财务指标（截至 2025 年 04 月 09 日） | | 公司代码 | 市值 | 23EPS | 24EPS | 24PE | PB | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 运达股份 | 300772 | 8.2 | 0.59 | 0.66 | 16 | 1.3 | 增持 | | 金风科技 | 2202 | 33.7 | 0.32 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 4 月 9 日 2 月全球半导体销售额同比增幅收窄，食糖价格指数上行 ——行业景气观察（0409） 相关报告 本周景气度改善的方向主要在部分中游制造和消费服务领域。上游资源品中，水泥、 小金属价格上涨；中游制造领域，3 月各类挖掘机、装载机销量三个月滚动同比增幅 扩大。信息技术中，存储器价格上行，2 月全球半导体销售额同比增幅收窄。消费服 务领域，食糖价格指数上行，空冰洗彩销售额同环比上行。复盘 2018-2019 中美贸 易冲突期间，内循环相关消费领域、以及防御板块和自主可控领域表现相对占优。推 荐景气较高或有改善，受关税冲击较小的水泥、风电、小金属、食饮、航空装备等。 定期报告 《3 月制造业 PMI 环比上行，2 月主要企业工程机械销售普遍改 善（0402）》 《"两新"领域生产端持续改 善，2 月 LCD 出货量同比增幅扩 大（0326）》 《1-2 月社会消费品零售同比增幅 扩 大 ， 存 储 器 价 格 上 行 （0319）》 《2 月台股电子营收同比普遍改 善，各类挖机销量同比增幅扩大 （0312）》 《2 月制造业 PMI 重回荣枯线以 上，重卡销量同 ...

Macroeconomic Insights - In Q1 2025, GDP growth is expected to reach approximately 5.2% due to improved fiscal policies and increased local government bond issuance of about 596.8 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous year[4] - The manufacturing PMI in March showed a slight increase, with new orders and new export orders rising by 0.7 and 0.4 percentage points respectively, although new export orders remain below the expansion threshold at 49[4] Market Strategy - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. is expected to increase the importance of domestic consumption in stabilizing the Chinese economy, with retail sales growth needing to rebound by 2.2% to 4.9% to achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5%[5] - A-share and Hong Kong consumer stocks are viewed as resilient assets amid global market volatility, with a focus on sectors like agricultural products and military industries[5] Financial Market Conditions - The overall A-share market valuation has decreased, with the PE ratio for the Wind All A Index at 15.0, down 0.1 from the previous week, placing it at the 49.1 percentile of historical valuation levels[7] - In April, the liquidity environment is expected to improve compared to March, with a focus on the potential for a reserve requirement ratio cut rather than interest rate reductions[10] Banking Sector Developments - Major banks are expected to receive a capital injection of approximately 520 billion yuan, which could enhance their credit expansion capacity by about 11.8 trillion yuan, representing 2.8% of the current social financing scale[11] - The average total assets to core tier one capital ratio for the six major banks is 14.8 times, indicating significant leverage potential from the capital injection[11] Real Estate Market Trends - The decline in mortgage rates is anticipated to stimulate housing demand, with the current first-home loan interest rate at 3.06%, which is only 21 basis points above the 5-year LPR[14] - The expected reduction in mortgage rates could lead to a decrease in "trend trading" listings, improving the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market[14]