- The DTW timing model is based on the principle of similarity and the DTW (Dynamic Time Warping) algorithm, which is a volume-price timing model[1][4][14] - The foreign capital timing model is constructed based on the divergence between foreign and domestic related assets, using four indicators reflecting foreign capital movements to generate timing signals for the A-share market[1][4][14] - The DTW timing model has shown an absolute return of 17.39% and an excess return of 17.83% relative to the CSI 300 since November 2022, with a maximum drawdown of 21.32% and a weekly win rate of over 60%[4][16] - The foreign capital timing model's long strategy has achieved an absolute return of 28.83% since 2024, with a maximum drawdown of 8.32%[4][23] - The DTW timing model uses the DTW distance algorithm instead of the Euclidean distance to measure similarity, as the DTW distance can better handle the misalignment of time series[29][30] - The DTW timing model has been improved by incorporating boundary constraints proposed by Sakoe-Chiba and Itakura to address the "pathological matching" problem of the traditional DTW algorithm[31][32][37] - The foreign capital timing strategy is based on two overseas listed assets related to A-shares: FTSE China A50 Index Futures (Singapore market) and Southern A50ETF (Hong Kong market), constructing timing signals through price divergence and premium/discount indicators[36][12] - The DTW timing model's performance in 2024 includes an absolute return of 15.68%, an excess return of 4.93%, a maximum drawdown of 21.36%, a trading win rate of 63.64%, and a profit-loss ratio of 2.64[18][19][20] - The foreign capital timing model's performance from December 30, 2014, to December 31, 2024, shows an annualized return of 18.96% (long-short) and 14.19% (long-only), with maximum drawdowns of 25.69% and 17.27%, respectively, and a daily win rate of nearly 55%[20][22][24]

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 4 月 11 日 从日本消费趋势变迁看新消费投资方向 ——新消费系列报告（一） 日本消费变迁史对新消费投资方向有一定参考价值。日本的经济发展和社会消费经历 了多个阶段，这些阶段不仅反映了经济的转型，也与消费者的行为、需求以及社会 结构的变化紧密相关。我们研究发现，在日本 90 年代的新消费领域中，软折扣零 售，银发经济（美妆、保健品）、动漫与游戏产业能够穿越经济周期。 我们首先对日本社会消费趋势进行简明复盘，总结出整体从升到落再到新消费兴起 的六大阶段，社会消费环境与经济发展周期关系紧密，分为"战后经济重建阶段"， "高速增长阶段"，"泡沫经济阶段"，"泡沫破裂与低迷消费阶段"，"后泡沫 经济与'低消费主义'阶段"和"数字化转型与个性化消费阶段"，具体来看： 1）战后经济重建阶段：国家采取了紧缩政策，人民的消费水平极低。生活必需品 主导消费，质量和品牌要求弱。 2）高速增长阶段：工业化和城市化进程加速，促使技术进步与产业转型。品牌和 质量意识兴起，日本消费者对品牌的重视程度上升，质量和设计成为购买决策的重 要因素。 3）泡沫经济阶段：房地产和股票市场的价格暴涨，消费者 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for TCL Electronics [4]. Core Views - The company has implemented an equity incentive plan that exceeds expectations, granting a total of 91.5 million shares to 860 incentive recipients, with performance targets set for adjusted net profit growth from 2024 to 2027 [1][8]. - TCL's global expansion strategy is resilient against tariff challenges, with significant production capacities in Mexico and Vietnam, allowing the company to mitigate cost risks effectively [8]. - The penetration rate of MiniLED technology is rapidly increasing, driven by government subsidies, with expectations for substantial growth in sales and market share in the coming years [8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue projections for TCL Electronics are as follows: - 2023: 79,111 million HKD - 2024: 99,322 million HKD (26% YoY growth) - 2025E: 116,149 million HKD (17% YoY growth) - 2026E: 137,888 million HKD (19% YoY growth) - 2027E: 158,475 million HKD (15% YoY growth) [3][10]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 2.307 billion HKD, 2.798 billion HKD, and 3.202 billion HKD, representing YoY growth rates of 31%, 21%, and 14% respectively [8]. - The company's PE ratio is projected to decrease from 26.6 in 2023 to 6.2 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [11]. Stock Performance - TCL Electronics has shown strong stock performance with absolute returns of 13% over 1 month, 57% over 6 months, and 98% over 12 months [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for Anta Sports [3][10] Core Views - In Q1 2025, Anta's main brand and FILA both experienced high single-digit growth, while other brands saw growth between 65% and 70%. The company is deepening online discounts and has a relatively healthy inventory situation [1][2][10] - Anta plans to acquire Jack Wolfskin for $290 million to enhance its outdoor brand portfolio, which is expected to be completed by the end of Q2 or early Q3 2025 [6][10] - The projected net profits for Anta from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 13.43 billion, 15.51 billion, and 17.15 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -14%, 15%, and 11% respectively, excluding one-time gains from the Amer acquisition [1][10] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 77.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10%. The company expects to achieve revenues of 85.45 billion yuan in 2026 and 92.97 billion yuan in 2027 [8][10] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 16x for 2025 and 14x for 2026 [10] - As of the end of Q1 2025, Anta's inventory turnover ratio is less than 5, indicating effective inventory management [6][10] Brand Performance - Anta's main brand saw high single-digit growth in Q1 2025, with children's products also performing well. The overall online sales for the brand experienced low double-digit growth [1][11] - FILA's sales in Q1 2025 showed high single-digit growth, with children's products growing at a low double-digit rate and the FILA Fusion line achieving high double-digit growth [2][11] - Other brands under Anta, such as Descente and KOLON, reported significant growth rates of 60% and 100% respectively in Q1 2025 [2][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for JD Group with a target price of 193 HKD per share, while the current share price is 141.7 HKD [2]. Core Insights - JD Group is expected to achieve a year-on-year revenue growth of 10.6% in Q1 2025, with Non-GAAP net profit projected to grow by 15% [1][6]. - The growth is driven by strong performance in the electronics and daily necessities categories, with a solid self-operated e-commerce model providing a competitive edge [1][6]. - The company is anticipated to benefit significantly from domestic consumption policies, especially if new stimulus measures are introduced [1][6]. Financial Data Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 1,084,662 million HKD - 2024: 1,158,819 million HKD (4% growth) - 2025E: 1,251,543 million HKD (7% growth) - 2026E: 1,329,509 million HKD (8% growth) - 2027E: 1,397,248 million HKD (6% growth) [2][7] - **Non-GAAP Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: 35,200 million HKD - 2024: 47,827 million HKD (25% growth) - 2025E: 52,165 million HKD (36% growth) - 2026E: 56,387 million HKD (9% growth) - 2027E: 60,819 million HKD (8% growth) [2][7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 8.34 HKD - 2024: 14.27 HKD - 2025E: 17.23 HKD - 2026E: 18.82 HKD - 2027E: 20.37 HKD [2][10] - **Valuation Ratios**: - PE (Non-GAAP): - 2023: 10.9 - 2024: 8.0 - 2025E: 7.3 - 2026E: 6.8 - 2027E: 6.3 [2][9] Stock Performance - **Absolute Performance**: - 1 month: -9.2% - 6 months: -13.0% - 12 months: +36.6% [4] Shareholder Information - Total shares outstanding: 3,183 million - Total market capitalization: 467 billion HKD - Major shareholder: Max Smart Limited with a 9.6% stake [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The effect of consumption - promotion policies is gradually emerging, with the year - on - year decline of CPI narrowing, basically in line with market expectations. The overall price level is gradually recovering, and the generalized price index (PCI) continues to rise, indicating an improvement in the overall price level. Policy support is expected to continue, and incremental policies are likely to be introduced to maintain the momentum of price recovery [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. CPI and Core CPI Analysis - In March, CPI decreased month - on - month. Food, energy, and tourism - related items were the main drags. Core CPI was relatively strong, with clothing, household goods and services showing significant increases. The "trade - in" policy supported the demand for household appliances, and service prices also rose, indicating positive signals on the demand side and a mild recovery of the price level from a low position [1][2] 2. PPI Analysis - In March, PPI decreased month - on - month. The decline in international crude oil prices, reduced coal demand after the heating season, and the downward trend of some raw material industries led to the decline in PPI [2] 3. Generalized Price Index (PCI) Analysis - In March, the PCI continued to rise due to the narrowing decline of housing prices and the weakening of the US dollar. The PCI is correlated with the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate. The marginal decline of the stock market in April may weaken the upward momentum of the PCI, reducing the pressure on the bond market [3][4] 4. Policy Expectations - Policies aim for a moderate recovery of prices. In the face of the impact of US tariff increases, it is expected that domestic incremental policies will be introduced, with loose monetary policies likely to be implemented first, which will help stabilize the economy and financial markets and continue the price recovery trend [4]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 10 日 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 29136 | 32983 | 55334 | 62189 | 66938 | | 同比增长 | 2% | 13% | 68% | 12% | 8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 6786 | 7828 | 12748 | 14879 | 16346 | | 同比增长 | -12% | 15% | 63% | 17% | 10% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 5651 | 6338 | 10747 | 12600 | 13876 | | 同比增长 | -10% | 12% | 70% | 17% | 10% | | 每股收益(元) | 0.77 | 0.86 | 1.47 | 1.72 | 1.89 | | PE | 20.1 | 17.9 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 8.2 | | PB | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.9 | ...

CPI Analysis - March CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.1%, an improvement of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased to 0.5% year-on-year from -0.1% in the previous month[11] - Food CPI year-on-year was -1.4%, a narrowing of the decline by 1.9 percentage points compared to last month[10] PPI Analysis - March PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.5%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4%[17] - Production materials prices fell by 2.8% year-on-year, with the largest drop in the mining industry, particularly coal and oil extraction[17] - Living materials prices decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, a further decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[17] Future Outlook - April CPI is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase, primarily driven by food, services, and consumer goods[24] - The overall inflation target of 2% for the year remains distant, with new consumption policies anticipated to provide some support[24] - April PPI is likely to remain under pressure due to ongoing trade tensions and weak domestic demand, with a focus on expanding internal demand and stabilizing growth policies[25]

Inflation Analysis - March CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.1%, improving by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[5] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 0.5% in March from -0.1% in February, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[10] - Food CPI year-on-year was -1.4%, but the decline narrowed by 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[9] PPI Trends - March PPI year-on-year fell by 2.5%, with production materials down by 2.8%, marking an increase in the decline by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[16] - The coal mining and oil extraction sectors experienced the largest declines, with coal mining PPI down by 14.9% year-on-year[18] - Manufacturing and construction sectors showed seasonal demand expansion, but overall industrial demand remains weak, impacting PPI negatively[23] Future Outlook - April CPI is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase, primarily driven by food and service sectors, but seasonal factors may lead to a decline in food prices[22] - PPI is anticipated to remain under pressure due to ongoing trade tensions and weak domestic demand, with potential policy adjustments to stimulate growth[23]

Group 1: Supply Chain Security as a Focus of Great Power Competition - The report highlights that supply chain security has become a focal point in the geopolitical competition, particularly between the U.S. and China, with increased measures to weaken China's advantages in shipping and energy resources [4][7][13]. Group 2: Energy Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Investment Opportunities - The report details the vulnerabilities in the energy supply chain, emphasizing the high import dependency rates for various energy sources, such as crude oil (72%), liquefied natural gas (79%), and nickel (100%) [4][14][27]. - It suggests that the oil and gas sectors, particularly crude oil and liquefied natural gas, are critical areas for short-term investment due to their exposure to supply chain risks [4][14][27]. Group 3: Metal Mineral Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Investment Opportunities - The report outlines the high import dependency for key metals, including iron ore (54%), copper (92.9%), and manganese (98%), indicating a significant reliance on foreign sources [4][43][52]. - It identifies potential investment opportunities in the metal sector, particularly in companies involved in the extraction and processing of these minerals, given the ongoing demand and supply chain challenges [4][43][52].