证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 04 月 09 日 出版板块高股息防御价值凸显，关注影视潮玩等内生消费 传媒互联网行业周报 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 近期我们继续坚定推荐各个细分行业龙头公司，我们继续坚定看好【神州泰岳】 【南方传媒】【分众传媒】【完美世界】【恺英网络】【巨人网络】【腾讯控 股】【昆仑万维】【中国科传】【芒果超媒】【哔哩哔哩】【中文在线】等 ❑ 过去的一周，传媒行业下跌 1.52%，在所有行业中排名第 14 位，传媒板块年 初到现在上涨了 5.74%，排名所有板块第 6 名。近期，市场当中贸易战的氛 围浓厚，出口链遭遇了较大的跌幅，我们重新审视了传媒行业在这次关税中 的影响。我们认为出版教育、游戏、影视潮玩等行业受增加关税的影响较小， 出版行业尤甚，在 2018-2019 年，凤凰传媒等出版公司行情走势实现阶段新 高，主要原因是出版教育行业基本是纯内需，而出版公司主营业务是教材教 辅业务，因此关税政策对其几乎没有任何影响；同样，对潮玩、影视、游戏 影响也较小，主要由于影视院线基本收入出口极少，而且具有很大的口红效 应；此外，关于游戏出海部分，我们与很多游戏公司进行沟通，明确游戏业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 42.36 million and 45.89 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 30% [1][6]. - The growth in the company's main business is strong, with record sales in elastomers and modified plastics, driven by policies promoting the replacement of old consumer products in the automotive, home appliance, and electronics sectors [6]. - The TPV (Thermoplastic Vulcanizate) business is anticipated to accelerate, benefiting from tariff increases on imports from the U.S., which enhances the company's competitive position [6]. - The company is strategically developing new production capabilities and advancing R&D in cutting-edge technologies like DVA (Dynamic Vapor Absorption), which could significantly expand its growth potential [6][7]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 6.13 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16% [8][11]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 205 million yuan, reflecting a 46% increase compared to the previous year [8][11]. - The company’s financial ratios indicate a stable growth trajectory, with an expected PE ratio of 29.8 in 2025 [11]. Market Position - The company is a leading player in the TPV industry in China, with ongoing capacity expansion and a focus on high-margin products [6][7]. - The DVA product, which is set to replace butyl rubber in tires, has a potential domestic market size exceeding 20 billion yuan, indicating significant growth opportunities [6][7].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 09 日 中国国航（601111.SH） Q4 受益油价下降、毛利转正，关注商务客流及国际线恢复 周期/交通运输 中国国航 2024 年业绩：公司收入 1667.0 亿元，同比+18.1%；归母净亏损 2.4 亿元，同比减亏约 8 亿元；扣非归母净亏损 25.4 亿元，同比减亏约 6 亿元。 财务数据与估值 增持（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：7.0 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 17448 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 11638 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 122.1 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 81.5 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 2.6 | | ROE（TTM） | -0.5 | | 资产负债率 | 88.2% | | 主要股东 | 中国航空集团有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 42.53% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -7 -11 -5 相对表现 1 3 -8 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Apr/24 Jul/24 Nov/24 Mar/25 (%) ...

业绩同比高增，成本控制优异 周期/金属及材料 公司发布 2024 年业绩：2024 年实现营业收入 118.7 亿元，同比+12.7%；实现 归母净利润 7.0 亿元，同比+119.4%；24H2 实现营业收入 75.9 亿元，同比/环 比分别 +61.5%/+77.3% ，实现归母净利润 5.5 亿元，同比 / 环比分别 +175.0%/+260.3%。 财务数据与估值 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 08 日 灵宝黄金（03330.HK） | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 10535 | 11867 | 14979 | 15984 | 17324 | | 同比增长 | 4% | 13% | 26% | 7% | 8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 590 | 1022 | 1639 | 2265 | 2837 | | 同比增长 | 31% | 73% | 60% | 38% | 25% | | 归母净利润(百万元) ...

Group 1 - Northbound capital returned to net inflow in Q1, with a net purchase exceeding 13 billion yuan, primarily concentrated in the technology sector, particularly the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [3][8] - The main industries attracting northbound capital included automobiles (17.5 billion yuan), electronics (14.3 billion yuan), and machinery (6 billion yuan), with significant purchases in semiconductors (16.8 billion yuan), passenger cars (10.5 billion yuan), and batteries (7.1 billion yuan) [3][9] - The proportion of northbound capital held in semiconductor and passenger car stocks reached historical highs, indicating strong investor confidence in these sectors [8][9] Group 2 - The electronic, power equipment, and defense industries saw significant net inflows from various funds, with the highest inflows in electronic (4.03 billion yuan), defense (2.00 billion yuan), and computing (1.79 billion yuan) [37] - Conversely, industries such as coal, real estate, and steel experienced substantial net outflows, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment away from these sectors [37] - The financing capital showed a net outflow of 19.34 billion yuan, with notable net purchases in the automotive (0.69 billion yuan), pharmaceutical (0.16 billion yuan), and agriculture (0.04 billion yuan) sectors, while non-bank financials and computing faced significant net selling [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the telecommunications industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's growth potential [8]. Core Insights - The telecommunications industry is experiencing a shift in capital expenditure (Capex) towards computing power, enhancing value creation capabilities. The three major operators are expected to continue their revenue and profit growth, with net profit growth outpacing revenue growth [2][43]. - In the first two months of 2025, the telecommunications industry reported a slight revenue increase of 2,950 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9%. The user base continues to expand, with a notable increase in 5G penetration [1][14]. - The report highlights the importance of emerging businesses, particularly in the areas of cloud computing and Internet Data Center (IDC) services, which are expected to drive future growth [2][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Data Analysis (January-February 2025) - Telecommunications revenue reached 2,950 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%. The growth rate has slightly declined due to a high base in Q1 2024 and a complex macroeconomic environment [14]. - Mobile user growth is steady, with 5G penetration reaching 58.6%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from the end of the previous year [2][19]. 2. Annual Report Summary of Major Operators for 2024 - Revenue for the three major operators increased steadily, with net profit growth consistently outpacing revenue growth. The overall performance is expected to show a "front low and back high" trend in 2025 [2][43]. - Capex continues to decline, with a focus on computing power, which is expected to enhance free cash flow and strengthen the core asset attributes of the operators [2][3]. - The share of emerging business revenue in total service revenue increased to 57.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.0 percentage points [2][43]. 3. Cash Flow and Dividend Analysis - Free cash flow for the three major operators continued to grow rapidly in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 71.3%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [3][42]. - The report indicates that the operators' ability to create value is being reinforced, with a focus on managing accounts receivable effectively to enhance cash flow [3][42]. 4. Key Financial Metrics of Major Companies - China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom are highlighted with strong recommendations, showing robust earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [9].

Report Title - ABS Transaction Activity Increases — ABS Monthly Report (April 2025) [1] Core Viewpoint - In March 2025, the issuance scale of ABS increased significantly, the trading volume and turnover rate improved notably, the short - and medium - term yields declined rapidly, and the spreads with medium - and short - term notes widened [2][3][5] Specific Content Summary 1. Primary Issuance 1.1 Issuance Scale - In March 2025, the ABS issuance scale increased by 96% month - on - month to 170.966 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance scales of credit ABS, enterprise ABS, and ABN were 18.6 billion yuan, 105.209 billion yuan, and 47.157 billion yuan respectively, with month - on - month growth rates of 1140%, 83%, and 66% [2][8] - In terms of underlying asset types, the issuance scale of non - performing loan ABS in credit ABS increased the most; in enterprise ABS, the issuance scales of general small - loan claim ABS and financial leasing claim ABS increased significantly, while the issuance scale of quasi - REITs decreased; in ABN, the issuance scale of bank/internet consumer loan ABS increased the most, and the issuance of subsidy payment ABS dropped to zero [8] 1.2 Issuance Term and Interest Rate - In March 2025, most newly issued ABS had a term of 1 - 2 years, and the weighted coupon rate rebounded. The weighted average coupon rate was 2.18%, up 7.40bp from February [10] - By ABS type, the weighted term of newly issued credit ABS was 2.43 years, and the weighted interest rate was 1.77%; for enterprise ABS, the weighted term was 3.22 years, and the weighted interest rate was 2.36%; for ABN, the weighted term was 1.32 years, and the weighted interest rate was 2.17% [10] 2. Secondary Trading - In March 2025, the trading volume and turnover rate of ABS increased significantly. The monthly trading volume was 184.596 billion yuan, a 97.84% increase from February. The monthly turnover rate was 5.7%, up 2.8 percentage points from February [3][15] - Among them, the trading amount of credit ABS increased the fastest, and the turnover rate of ABN increased the fastest. ABN was the most actively traded ABS product type, with a monthly turnover rate of 9.6% in March, up 3.8 percentage points from the previous month [3][15] 3. Investor Structure - In credit ABS, commercial banks and non - legal person products were the main holders, accounting for 71% and 15% respectively. The proportion of commercial bank holdings decreased by 0.80 percentage points, while the proportions of non - legal person products, securities companies, and overseas institutions increased [4][19] - In ABN, non - legal person products and deposit - taking financial institutions held the most, accounting for 60% and 30% respectively [4] - For enterprise ABS, bank self - operation and trust institutions were the main investors in SSE enterprise ABS, with holding proportions of 26% and 31% respectively. In Shenzhen Stock Exchange enterprise ABS, general institutions and trust institutions were the main investors, with holding proportions of 27% and 33% respectively [4][22] 4. Yield and Spread - In March, the short - and medium - term ABS yields declined rapidly. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year AAA - rated asset - backed securities changed by - 13.4bp, - 6.5bp, 0.1bp, and 6.3bp respectively compared with February 28 [5][24] - The spreads between ABS yields and medium - and short - term notes widened. The spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year AAA - rated asset - backed securities with medium - and short - term notes of the same term and rating increased by 0.6bp, 0.5bp, 1.1bp, and 3.1bp respectively [5][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 73.4 to 89.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.4% to 50.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 22.6% to 5.3% [1][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 14.2 to 17.4 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 24.7% to 52.8% [1][6]. - The company's platform advantages are becoming increasingly prominent as it expands its process coverage in the semiconductor equipment sector [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue for 2022 was 14.688 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 52% [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 2.353 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 118% [2][8]. - The projected revenue for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 29.838 billion yuan, 39.220 billion yuan, and 48.456 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.622 billion yuan, 7.547 billion yuan, and 9.573 billion yuan [2][8]. Key Financial Ratios - The company’s return on equity (ROE) for 2022 was 12.8%, expected to rise to 23.1% by 2026 [9]. - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 16.0% in 2022 to 19.8% in 2026 [9]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 97.8 in 2022 to 24.0 by 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company has established a multi-dimensional response mechanism to mitigate the impact of the "reciprocal tariffs," resulting in limited actual effects on its business and performance [7]. - The company is expected to achieve rapid global growth, with strong performance in various markets outside the U.S., and is projected to reduce its reliance on the U.S. market over time [7]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with estimates ranging from 180 to 200 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.29% to 60.32% [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3,251 million yuan in 2023 to 6,957 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% [8][14]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 179 million yuan in 2023 to 1,099 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 17% [8][14]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 5.7% in 2023 to 21.7% in 2027 [15]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 76.8 in 2023 to 12.5 in 2027, indicating improved valuation over time [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of China's economic situation through various high - frequency indicators, showing a mixed picture of economic trends. Production and some infrastructure indicators are rising, while consumption and exports are facing downward pressure. Meanwhile, the real estate market shows signs of recovery, and CPI remains stable while PPI shows an upward trend [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Economic Index - The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) dropped to 6.1%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decline from the previous value. The WEI production sub - index was 6.3%, unchanged from the previous value, and the WEI demand sub - index was 5.7%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decline. The supply - demand gap was - 0.6%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decline [1]. 2. Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year growth rate of rebar production increased by 2.4 percentage points to 6.7%. The blast furnace operating rate rose by 1.1 percentage points to 83.2%. The PTA industrial chain load rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 80.5%. The automobile semi - steel tire operating rate dropped by 1.2 percentage points to 81.8%. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year growth rate of the daily coal consumption of major coastal power plants increased by 2.2 percentage points to - 0.4% [1]. 3. Infrastructure - The cement shipping rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 42.8%. The cement mill operating rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 41.7%. The petroleum asphalt plant operating rate decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 25.7% [1]. 4. Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year growth rate of the commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 2.5 percentage points to 1.1%. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year growth rate of the land area of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 32.3 percentage points to - 4.7% [2]. 5. Consumption - The year - on - year growth rate of the daily retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 5.0 percentage points to 3.0%. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year growth rate of movie box office decreased by 25.1 percentage points to - 49.3%. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year growth rate of domestic flight operations increased by 2.2 percentage points to 1.4%. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year growth rate of subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen increased by 0.3 percentage points to 2.4% [2]. 6. Exports - In late March, South Korea's exports decreased by 4.6 percentage points to 1.0% year - on - year. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year growth rate of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 8.2 percentage points to - 23.0% [2]. 7. CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year growth rate of the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increased by 0.8 percentage points to - 3.9%. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year growth rate of the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 2.8%. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year growth rate of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables increased by 1.8 percentage points to - 5.8% [3]. 8. PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year growth rate of the Nanhua Composite Index increased by 0.2 percentage points to - 0.6%. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year growth rate of the Brent crude oil spot price decreased by 0.7 percentage points to - 15.9%. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year growth rate of the rebar price increased by 1.4 percentage points to - 8.6%. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year growth rate of the Qinhuangdao Port steam coal closing price increased by 1.8 percentage points to - 20.3%. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year growth rate of the cement price index increased by 2.1 percentage points to 19.7% [3].