Group 1: Fiscal Policy Strengthening - The fiscal policy for 2025 is set to be more proactive, shifting from "moderate increase" in 2024 to "more vigorous" measures in 2025, emphasizing counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize the economy[5] - The budget deficit rate for 2025 is expected to reach a historical high, with significant increases in government bond issuance and spending intensity[14] - The focus of fiscal resources will be on people's livelihoods, consumption, and new productivity sectors, while also addressing risks in local debts and real estate[14] Group 2: Debt Instruments Expansion - The issuance of special bonds is set to increase to 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025, a 12.8% increase from 3.9 trillion yuan in 2024[21] - The plan includes 5,000 billion yuan in special government bonds to support state-owned banks' capital replenishment, enhancing their risk resistance and credit capacity[17] - The scope of special bonds will expand to include land reserves and the acquisition of existing housing for public welfare, with a shift from a "positive list" to a "negative list" for eligible projects[21] Group 3: Existing and Incremental Policies - Existing policies will be accelerated, with special bonds and long-term special bonds being issued and utilized promptly to enhance effectiveness[39] - The government aims to release the effectiveness of existing policies while reserving space for new incremental policies as needed[39] - New policy financial tools are in preparation to support technology innovation, consumption, and foreign trade, with an estimated scale of around 500 billion yuan expected to leverage investments significantly[7]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with expectations of overall returns exceeding the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [65]. Core Insights - The Chinese herbal medicine market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by favorable policies across supply, payment, and demand sides, with a market transaction value of 208.5 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and projected to reach 235.7 billion yuan by 2024 [3][21]. - Yunnan province is a major supplier of Chinese medicinal materials, with a comprehensive output value of 165 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for a significant portion of the national market [3][34]. - The report highlights the establishment of the "Cloud Medicine Traceability" platform in Yunnan, which enhances the quality control of medicinal materials through a closed-loop traceability system [4][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Rapid Growth of the Chinese Herbal Medicine Market - The market is supported by comprehensive policies that enhance the vitality of the industry, including improvements in registration, quality control, and cultural promotion [20][21]. - The midstream market for finished products is approximately 800 billion yuan, with traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) products dominating [21][26]. - The number of clinical trial applications for Chinese medicine has been increasing, indicating a growing pipeline of new products [29][30]. 2. Yunnan as a Major Supplier of Medicinal Materials - Yunnan is the richest region in China for medicinal resources, with a planting area of 8.72 million acres, leading the nation [34][37]. - The province's medicinal materials industry plays a significant role in agricultural structure optimization and rural revitalization, with over 1.446 million farmers involved [34][35]. - The report notes that over 70% of the more than 5,000 types of Chinese patent medicines use Yunnan medicinal materials [51]. 3. Key "Chain Leader" Companies - Yunnan Baiyao Group is focusing on four main business segments, including pharmaceuticals and health products, with a strategic emphasis on innovative TCM and nuclear medicine [57]. - Kunming Pharmaceutical Group is concentrating on the elderly health sector, with continuous innovation and product development in the TCM space [59][61]. - Both companies are recognized as leaders in the industry, contributing significantly to the growth and development of the TCM market in China [55][58].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, with expectations of overall returns exceeding the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The introduction of the "Measures to Support the High-Quality Development of Innovative Drugs" marks a significant opportunity for the innovative drug sector, addressing key challenges in research, payment, and clinical application [4][8]. - The report emphasizes a comprehensive support system for innovative drug development, including the use of national health insurance data to guide research directions and enhance innovation efficiency [5]. - The measures aim to optimize the inclusion of innovative drugs in the basic medical insurance catalog and commercial health insurance, ensuring that they meet clinical value and market conditions [6][9]. - The report highlights the potential for innovative drugs to expand their market reach, both domestically and internationally, under the Belt and Road Initiative, enhancing accessibility for patients [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Ratings - Sub-industry ratings for chemical pharmaceuticals, traditional Chinese medicine, and biopharmaceuticals are currently not rated [3]. Recommended Companies and Ratings - Companies such as Kelun-Botai, Kangfang Biotech, Lepu Biotech, Maiwei Biotech, and Ailis are expected to experience a new round of high-quality development opportunities, maintaining a "buy" rating [9].

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market saw a comprehensive rise in interest rate bonds, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones. The stock market, represented by the Shanghai Composite Index, broke through resistance levels, indicating a potential upward trend. However, the weak fundamentals may continue to support the bond market, leading to high-level fluctuations in the bond market moving forward [19][22]. Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a day of volatility, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1%. The total trading volume was 1.4 trillion, a decrease of 0.09 trillion from the previous day. A total of 1,856 stocks rose while 3,103 stocks fell. The Shanghai Composite Index technically broke through the March high, opening up further upward potential. Three key observation points are highlighted to assess market strength: the June 23 low as a support level, the sustainability of trading volume, and the stability of the RMB exchange rate [2][22][23]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The Dow Jones Index rose by 0.91%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell by 0.82% and 0.11%, respectively. Speculative sentiment is returning, and the U.S. stock market is expected to challenge new highs. The reduction in geopolitical risks has significantly lowered the risks associated with rising oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. Upcoming tax cuts and regulatory relaxations are anticipated to support U.S. stock earnings and upward expectations [3][27][28]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1672, an increase of 47 basis points from the previous close. The long-term trend indicates a bearish outlook for the USD, with strong support for the offshore RMB around 7.1 [31][32]. Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 1.16%, with construction materials, coal, and ferroalloy sectors leading the gains, while corn saw declines. The volatility of oil and related products has significantly decreased from high levels. The overall trend in the commodity market remains bearish, but recent rebounds from historical lows in domestic pricing suggest a potential for bullish strategies, especially for investors with appropriate stop-loss measures [4][36][37].

证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 大类资产跟踪 债券市场：利率债涨跌不一，短端几乎持平，长端上涨。股市方面上 证指数放量突破颈线压制，且呈均线排列结构，虽然基本面的疲弱仍将支 撑债市，但股市若继续走强仍将压制债市表现，预计债市后续将高位震荡 运行。后续展望：股市大盘突破，债市预计高位震荡。 2025 年 07 月 01 日 投资策略 策略日报（2025.07.01）：指数分化 相关研究报告 <<策略日报（2025.06.30）：创业板指 领涨>>--2025-07-01 A 股：三大指数分化，沪指领涨，创新药概念爆发。市场全天成交额 1.49 万亿，较前一日缩量 0.02 万亿，个股涨跌分化，2514 只个股上涨， 2394 只个股下跌。沪指技术面上指数突破了 3 月份的高点，上涨空间已 经打开。有三个观察点来判断行情的强弱支撑是否有效：一是前期油价的 高点也是地缘风险消退和指数止稳的起点，因此 6 月 23 日上涨的低 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - China's June official manufacturing PMI is 49.7, matching expectations and up from 49.5 in May, indicating a marginal improvement[4] - The production index rose to 51.0, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, signaling recovery in production activities[9] - New orders index increased to 50.2, up 0.4 percentage points, marking a return to the expansion zone after two months below the threshold[9] - The PMI for large enterprises is 51.2, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 48.6, up 1.1 percentage points[13] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI for June is 50.5, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion[19] - The construction activity index rose to 52.8, up 1.8 percentage points, driven by infrastructure investments[25] - The service sector index is at 50.1, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, reflecting seasonal adjustments in travel-related services[22] Group 3: Price and Demand Dynamics - The raw material purchase price index is at 48.4, and the factory price index is at 46.2, both showing a 1.5 percentage point increase from the previous month[16] - New export orders index is at 47.7, up 0.2 percentage points, while the import index is at 47.8, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery in external demand[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Insights - The company has successfully transformed into a global leading smart product platform enterprise with a "3+N+3" multi-business line growth strategy, focusing on mature core businesses such as smartphones, PCs, and data centers, while expanding into emerging fields like automotive electronics, software, and robotics [4][11]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the domestic CSP (Cloud Service Provider) arms race, with its server business expected to become a strong growth driver due to increasing demand for customized server solutions from major internet firms [5][37]. - The smartphone market is recovering, with the company benefiting from increased ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) penetration and strong demand from major clients [46][55]. Summary by Sections I. Global Leading Smart Product Platform Enterprise - The company has established a "3+N+3" strategy, focusing on three core mature businesses and expanding into three emerging fields, which has led to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.56% in revenue from 2018 to 2024 and 58.87% in net profit [4][11][18]. II. Server Business Growth - The company is a key supplier for major domestic CSPs, benefiting from a significant increase in capital expenditures from internet giants, with a projected capital expenditure of approximately 240 billion yuan in 2024 [5][29]. - The ODM Direct model is reshaping the market, with the company's server business expected to capture a significant share of the growing demand for customized solutions [34][37]. III. Smart Terminal Business - The company is well-positioned in the smart terminal market, with a leading share in the ODM sector, which is expected to grow as the industry shifts towards higher ODM penetration [6][55]. - The smartphone market is showing signs of recovery, with a projected growth in AI smartphone penetration, which will further drive demand for the company's products [46][49]. IV. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 138.93 billion yuan, 168.19 billion yuan, and 200.59 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.71 billion yuan, 4.53 billion yuan, and 5.70 billion yuan [7][65].

Group 1 - The overall market valuation has increased, with the ChiNext Index performing the best, while the dividend index showed the weakest performance [1][10] - The computer, defense, and non-bank financial sectors experienced the highest gains, while the oil, food and beverage, and transportation sectors performed the weakest [13][35] - The relative PE and PB of the ChiNext Index compared to the CSI 300 have both increased, indicating a shift in valuation dynamics [17][26] Group 2 - The overall valuation of broad market indices has risen, with the majority of indices above the 50% historical percentile [15][26] - The financial and real estate sectors are valued above the 50% historical percentile, while materials, equipment manufacturing, industrial services, transportation, consumption, and technology sectors are at or below the 50% level [28][39] - The valuation of the food and beverage, agriculture, public utilities, and home appliance sectors is currently considered relatively cheap [39][44] Group 3 - The overall profit expectations across industries have shown slight changes, with the largest upward adjustments and the computer sector experiencing the most significant downward revision [50]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific investment ratings for the industry segments mentioned [2]. Core Insights - The overall industry strategy emphasizes positive trends in terminal innovation, with a focus on smart technology, solid-state batteries, and offshore wind energy [3][4][15]. - The new energy vehicle supply chain is entering a new cycle, driven by demand expectations from key players like Tesla, Xiaomi, and CATL [4]. - Solid-state batteries are entering a critical introduction phase, with companies like Putailai benefiting from advancements in technology [4][32]. Summary by Relevant Sections New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain - Terminal innovations are expected to boost demand, with Xiaomi's YU7 and Tesla's Robotaxi leading the charge [4]. - CATL is collaborating with partners to develop L4 autonomous driving technology, investing over 3 billion [4]. Solid-State Battery Developments - The China Automotive Engineering Society has released the first group standard for solid-state batteries, clarifying definitions and standards [4]. - Innovations in current collectors are crucial for commercializing solid-state batteries, with companies like Nord and Defu Technology making strides [4][45]. Energy Storage Industry - Five major trends in energy storage are emerging, including reduced cell costs and the need for new profit models [5][40]. - The implementation of the 136 document in Xinjiang is expected to clarify future revenue prospects for energy storage projects [5][34]. Offshore Wind Energy - Leading companies in the wind energy sector are expected to report strong second-quarter results, benefiting from high demand and improved product structures [9]. - Shanghai's marine industry development plan aims to accelerate the research and application of large-scale floating wind turbines [44]. AI and New Energy Integration - Companies like Tesla and CATL are advancing in the integration of AI with new energy technologies, with significant investments in humanoid robots and autonomous driving [6][41]. - The humanoid robot market is projected to drive advancements in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries [37]. Market Trends and Pricing - Recent price adjustments in lithium carbonate and other battery materials indicate market volatility, with lithium carbonate prices showing a 20.42% decrease year-to-date [14][19]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring material prices as they directly impact the profitability of the new energy vehicle and battery sectors [11][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The prices of bio-jet fuel (SAF) and bio-diesel have increased, with SAF reaching $2230 per ton, up 9.85% week-on-week and 20.28% year-to-date [3][11] - Refrigerant prices remain strong, with R32 and R134a showing slight increases of 0.96% and 1.03% respectively [4][11] - The demand for high-performance fibers and lightweight materials is expected to rise due to advancements in robotics and the low-altitude economy [5][28] Summary by Sections 1. Sub-industry Tracking - Bio-jet fuel (SAF) and bio-diesel prices are on the rise, with SAF priced at $2230 per ton and bio-diesel at 8100 RMB per ton [3][11] - Refrigerant prices are stable, with R32 at 52500 RMB per ton and R134a at 49000 RMB per ton [4][11] - Prices for vitamins, multi-crystalline silicon, and other materials have declined [4][11] 2. Electronic Chemicals - The electronic chemicals sector focuses on materials for the electronics industry, including wet electronic chemicals and photolithography materials [13][16] - The market for semiconductor materials is projected to grow, with a significant increase in domestic production capabilities [20][23] 3. New Quality Productivity - Carbon fiber and ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) are highlighted as key materials benefiting from the low-altitude economy and robotics [28][30] - PEEK materials are gaining traction in humanoid robotics, with demand expected to grow significantly [33] 4. Lithium Battery/Storage Materials - Conductive agents like carbon black and carbon nanotubes are essential for lithium battery materials, with current market prices showing a downward trend [36][39] - Sodium-ion battery materials are also gaining attention due to their cost advantages [39] 5. Renewable and Modified Plastics - The demand for recycled plastics is increasing, with a notable rise in the proportion of recycled materials used in packaging [55][58] - Specialty engineering plastics are in demand across various industries, including automotive and aerospace [55][60] 6. Coatings, Inks, and Pigments - The demand for new functional coating materials is growing, driven by the automotive and consumer electronics sectors [62][64] 7. Market Performance - The basic chemical index has shown a 4.15% increase, outperforming the overall market [66][67]