Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company has shown continuous improvement in profitability, with both organic and external growth strategies being effectively implemented [5] - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 13,074 million HKD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [6] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to reach 853.74 million HKD, indicating a significant year-on-year increase of 42.6% [6] - The report highlights the company's strong performance in both import and export of tobacco products, with notable growth in various segments [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023: Revenue of 11,836.22 million HKD, Net Profit of 598.77 million HKD - 2024: Revenue of 13,074.24 million HKD, Net Profit of 853.74 million HKD - 2025E: Revenue of 14,590.45 million HKD, Net Profit of 965.40 million HKD - 2026E: Revenue of 15,989.09 million HKD, Net Profit of 1,124.04 million HKD - 2027E: Revenue of 17,346.28 million HKD, Net Profit of 1,287.66 million HKD [6][10] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to grow from 1.23 HKD in 2024 to 1.86 HKD by 2027 [10] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 10.54% in 2024 to 11.59% in 2027, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin products [10] Business Segment Performance - Import Business: - Revenue from tobacco leaf imports is projected to be 8,254.25 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 2.17% [9] - Export Business: - Tobacco leaf export revenue is expected to reach 2,061.54 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 24.78% [9] - Cigarette export revenue is forecasted at 1,573.64 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 30.19% [9] - New Tobacco Products: - Revenue from new tobacco products is projected to be 135.18 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 4.00% [9] Valuation and Price Target - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company at 28.00 to 29.40 HKD for 2025, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20 to 21 times [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in the stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 135.77 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.5% after excluding the divested K&P business. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, aligning with expectations [4]. - The main brand, Xtep, reported a revenue of 123.27 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 3.2%. The online e-commerce segment saw approximately 20% growth, accounting for over 30% of total revenue, with emerging platforms like Douyin experiencing over 80% growth [4]. - The professional sports segment, including Saucony, achieved a revenue of 1.25 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 57.2%. Saucony's revenue surpassed 1 billion yuan, with improved profitability [4]. - The company plans to enhance its Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) strategy, aiming to recover distribution rights for approximately 400 to 500 Xtep stores by late 2025 and 2026 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A at 14,346 million yuan, 2024A at 13,577 million yuan, 2025E at 14,531 million yuan, 2026E at 15,685 million yuan, and 2027E at 16,831 million yuan [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,030 million yuan in 2023A, increasing to 1,672 million yuan by 2027E, with a consistent growth rate of around 10% [2]. - The company's gross margin improved to 43.2% in 2024, with a net margin of 9.1%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0 percentage points [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 13.1 for 2023A, decreasing to 8.1 by 2027E, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [2]. - The Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 1.5 in 2023A to 1.0 in 2027E, indicating a strengthening balance sheet relative to market valuation [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.799 billion and a net profit of 1.303 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year change of +5% and -21% respectively. In the second half of 2024, revenue and net profit were 6.761 billion and 620 million, showing a year-on-year increase of +11% and a decrease of -33% respectively [2][4]. - The core business of the company is recovering growth, with the HNB (Heated Not Burned) segment showing potential as a future growth driver. The company has received positive feedback from consumers and British American Tobacco in Serbia [6][4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product matrix with new launches and enhancing its market share in the open product segment through its brand VAPORESSO [6][4]. Revenue Summary - The company's revenue from the TOB (Business to Business) segment in the second half of 2024 increased by 11%, with contributions from various regions: +5% from the US, +17% from mainland China, and +14% from Europe and other regions. The revenue breakdown shows a decline in disposable products but growth in the HNB and APV (Advanced Personal Vaporizer) segments [6][4]. - The TOC (Business to Consumer) segment also saw a revenue increase of 13% in the second half of 2024, supported by the establishment of localized marketing teams and online store management systems [6][4]. Profitability Summary - The company's gross margin decreased by 3.9 percentage points to 37.0% in the second half of 2024, primarily due to changes in product sales structure. The net profit dropped by 33%, influenced by increased sales and R&D expenses [6][4]. - The company is investing heavily in marketing and R&D, particularly in the fields of medical vaporization and heated not burned products, which is expected to impact profitability in the short term but may yield long-term benefits [6][4]. Long-term Outlook - The company aims for a market capitalization target of 300 to 500 billion, with significant growth potential in the HNB business and a positive trend in traditional business recovery. The company is committed to long-term development and increasing investment in HNB and medical vaporization R&D [6][4]. - The company has launched the Glo Hilo product in collaboration with British American Tobacco, which has shown promising feedback in terms of heating time, taste, and design, indicating a competitive edge against existing products like IQOS [6][4]. - The company is also progressing in the clinical development of drug-device combination products for respiratory diseases, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue in the future [6][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company, expecting a relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [19]. Core Insights - The company's beer business is steadily progressing towards high-end products, while the white liquor segment is experiencing counter-cyclical growth [1][10]. - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 38.635 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.739 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year [3][9]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth rates of 6%, 5%, and 4% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 9%, 8%, and 8% for the same years [6][9]. Summary by Sections Beer Business - In 2024, the company sold 10.874 million tons of beer at a price of 3,355 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% in volume but an increase of 1.5% in price. High-end beer sales grew over 9% year-on-year, with Heineken close to 20% growth [4][5]. - The company is expanding its distribution channels, including partnerships with instant retail platforms, resulting in over 30% growth in online GMV [4]. White Liquor Business - The white liquor segment generated revenue of 2.149 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4%, with a gross margin improvement of 5.6 percentage points to 68.5% [5]. - The brand "摘要" saw a sales increase of 35%, contributing over 70% to the white liquor revenue, driven by strong brand building and inventory management [5]. Financial Performance - The overall gross margin for the company improved to 42.6%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year. The EBITDA margin was 20.9%, reflecting a 0.7 percentage point increase [6]. - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 0.76 yuan per share for 2024, with a payout ratio of 52% [6]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 40.904 billion yuan, 42.758 billion yuan, and 44.588 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.145 billion yuan, 5.574 billion yuan, and 6.031 billion yuan [9][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Views - The report highlights a turning point in the company's atomization business and expresses optimism about the future of its HNB (Heated Not Burned) business [1]. - The company reported a total revenue of 11.8 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. However, net profit decreased by 20.8% to 1.3 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 11.0% [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was 11.8 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 37.4%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous year. The net profit was 1.3 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 20.8% year-on-year [4][6][7]. - The company declared a final dividend of 0.05 HKD per share as of December 31, 2024 [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The self-owned brand business saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 2.48 billion RMB, up 34.0% year-on-year. Notably, revenue from Europe and other regions for electronic atomization products was 2.02 billion RMB, up 37.2% [6]. - Revenue from enterprise client business was 9.32 billion RMB, slightly down by 0.3%. The report anticipates that increased regulatory enforcement in the U.S. will enhance market share for compliant products [6]. Research and Development - The company maintained a high R&D expenditure, amounting to 1.57 billion RMB, which is 13.3% of total revenue. This includes 1.03 billion RMB for electronic nicotine delivery systems [6][7]. - Sales and distribution expenses rose significantly by 74.7% to 920 million RMB, attributed to increased marketing efforts for self-owned brands globally [6]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 13.13 billion RMB in 2025, 15.27 billion RMB in 2026, and 17.54 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 11%, 16%, and 15% respectively [9][10]. - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.63 billion RMB, 2.15 billion RMB, and 2.64 billion RMB, with growth rates of 25%, 32%, and 23% respectively [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][6]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of $4.28 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of $62 million, up 68% year-on-year [6]. - North America showed signs of profit recovery, with an EBITDA margin of 8.1%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the Asia-Pacific region's revenue grew by 10% [6]. - The company has secured multiple cutting-edge technology contracts, including steer-by-wire and rear-wheel steering systems, which are expected to enhance market expansion [6]. Financial Data and Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are $4.48 billion, $4.76 billion, and $5.11 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.7%, 6.2%, and 7.5% [7][9]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are $147 million, $169 million, and $193 million, reflecting significant growth rates of 138.3%, 14.9%, and 14.0% respectively [9]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 10.5% in 2024 to 12.6% by 2027 [7]. Regional Performance - North America is projected to generate revenues of $2.24 billion in 2025, with a modest growth rate of 2% [7]. - The Asia-Pacific region is expected to see revenues rise to $1.50 billion in 2025, maintaining a robust growth rate of 12% [7]. - The Europe, Central Asia, and South America region is forecasted to have revenues of $732 million in 2025, with a slight growth of 2% [7]. Valuation and Price Target - The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15-17x for 2025, leading to a fair value range of HKD 6.84 to HKD 7.75 [6][8]. - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is estimated at 1.0-1.2x for 2025, corresponding to a fair value range of HKD 13.92 to HKD 16.70 [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Buy" [1] Core Views - ZTO Express reported an adjusted net profit of 10.2 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [2] - The company achieved operating revenue of 44.281 billion yuan in 2024, up 15.3% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 revenue reaching 12.92 billion yuan, a 21.7% increase year-on-year [2] - The report emphasizes ZTO's leading market share in the express delivery industry, with a focus on maintaining and enhancing its competitive position [5][7] Financial Summary - In 2024, ZTO Express's adjusted net profit was 10.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [2] - The operating revenue for 2024 was 44.281 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.3% increase compared to the previous year [2] - The company’s express delivery volume reached 34 billion pieces in 2024, marking a 12.6% year-on-year increase, maintaining a market share of approximately 19.4% [3] - The average revenue per package was 1.20 yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 showing an increase to 1.24 yuan, a rise of 11.0% year-on-year [4] - The average cost per package decreased to approximately 0.68 yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year, with significant improvements in operational efficiency [4] Operational Insights - ZTO Express aims to achieve a business volume of approximately 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion pieces in 2025, targeting a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24% [5] - The company is focusing on service quality, business volume, and profit as its three main priorities for 2025 [5] - The report highlights the ongoing growth potential in the express delivery industry, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and changing consumer behaviors [6][7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for adjusted net profit for ZTO Express from 2025 to 2027 is 10.44 billion yuan, 11.78 billion yuan, and 13.51 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 3.58%, 12.81%, and 14.73% [8] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on ZTO's strong market position and expected steady growth in volume and profit [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BOSS Zhipin is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 98.01, reflecting an upward adjustment based on a valuation of 25x PE for 2025, which is above the industry average [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady market share growth, with AI and specific job sectors gradually improving in demand. The implementation of AI-related products is expected to contribute to incremental revenue [4][11]. - The financial performance for Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 1.824 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%. The adjusted net profit was RMB 722 million, up 14.92% [11]. - The company has adjusted its projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 to RMB 3.299 billion and RMB 3.998 billion, respectively, reflecting a slight downward revision due to increased expenses [4][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue growth from 2021 to 2024 shows a significant increase, with 2024 projected revenue at RMB 7.356 billion, representing a 24% increase year-on-year. The adjusted net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 2.710 billion, a 25.72% increase [7][11]. - The company has maintained effective cost control, with a decrease in sales and R&D expense ratios, contributing to a 27% growth in operating profit [11]. - The blue-collar market has expanded, with blue-collar revenue accounting for 38% of total revenue in Q4 2024, indicating a shift in market dynamics [11].

[Table_Industry] 金融 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——众安在线 2024 年年报业绩点评 本报告导读： 公司 24 年净利润同比 105.4%（剔除同期众安国际并表影响），预计主要得益于承保 盈利贡献，投资收益提振，科技及银行盈利改善。维持"增持"。 投资要点： 催化剂：资本市场回暖。 利润显著改善，AI 打造增长曲线 众安在线(6060) | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦(分析师) | 李嘉木(分析师) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 13.82 | | 021-38676647 | 021-38038619 | | | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | lijiamu026075@gtjas.com | [Table_Market] | | | 登记编号 S0880515050001 | S0880524030003 | 交易数据 | | 风险提示：长端利率下行；赔付率提升；虚拟银行盈利不及预期。 -26% -8% 10% 27% 45% 63% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 44.00, indicating a potential upside of 84.1% from the current price of HKD 23.90 [2][3][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve profitability again in 2024, driven by strong overseas sales of Furmonertinib and effective cost control measures. The focus for 2025 will be on the NDA submission for SAVANNAH in the U.S. and the progress of new product approvals in mainland China [3][7]. - Despite a decline in one-time collaboration income, the company has managed to maintain a positive outlook due to robust sales performance and cost management [3][7]. - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected at USD 708 million, with a slight decrease from previous estimates, while net profit is expected to rise significantly to USD 452 million, reflecting a 15% increase from prior forecasts [6][12]. Financial Projections - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 show a slight downward adjustment of 1-4% for revenue, but an increase in net profit projections due to ongoing cost control efforts [7][12]. - The company anticipates oncology and immunology revenue to reach USD 350-450 million in 2025, with a projected growth of over 30% in product market sales [7]. - The DCF model estimates the company's equity value at approximately USD 4.916 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 44.00 [8][12]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 5.99%, with a 52-week high of HKD 34.70 and a low of HKD 20.25 [5][11]. - The report highlights the significant growth in oncology product revenue, which increased by 65% year-on-year, primarily due to the strong market performance of Furmonertinib [7][12].