证券研究报告 中国太平 (966 HK) 港股通 业绩预增：2025 年归母净利润同比增 长 215%-225% 有效税率下降亦推高净利润 根据公司公告，归母净利润的提升也受中国国家税务部门针对中国保险行业 推出的新企业所得税税收政策的一次性影响。财政部及国家税务总局于 2025 年 12 月 22 日发布了《关于保险合同准则转换有关企业所得税处理事 项的公告》，明确了保险企业在新准则下的企业所得税处理方式，可能对公 司所得税的计提产生影响。2024 年公司出于审慎考虑，一次性计提了高额 的递延税项，导致 2024 年有效税率上升至 42%。2025 年上半年有效税率 下降至 10.4%左右，我们估计，在税收政策清晰化的背景下，2025 年全年 公司有效税率亦处于低位，对公司归母净利润的提升提供一定推动作用。如 果假设 2025 年全年有效税率与上半年保持一致（10.4%），那么我们估计 2025 年全年公司税前利润增速可能在 80%~90%左右，税率的下降对公司 净利润的上涨存在较大助推作用。 负债端有望实现良好增长 展望 2026 年，行业负债端有望全面转向分红险。当前分红险的实际收益率 在 3%左右水平 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 31.73 per share, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [3][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a projected year-on-year growth of 215%-225% for 2025, translating to approximately HKD 266-274 billion [8]. - The strong performance is attributed to a low base effect and a reversal of deferred tax losses, which has driven the company's annual performance beyond market expectations [8]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be HKD 7.52, with subsequent years showing slight declines and recoveries [9][10]. Financial Projections - The company's intrinsic value is projected to be HKD 272,123 million in 2023, decreasing to HKD 234,224 million in 2024, before recovering to HKD 256,442 million in 2025 and continuing to grow to HKD 294,410 million by 2027 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from HKD 6,190 million in 2023 to HKD 27,014 million in 2025, before declining to HKD 22,389 million in 2026 and recovering to HKD 25,200 million in 2027 [2][10]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow from HKD 1,485 million in 2023 to HKD 1,983 million in 2025, with a steady increase to HKD 2,276 million by 2027 [10]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the company's performance has outpaced the Hang Seng Index, with a notable increase of 723%-758% in net profit for the second half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [8][9]. - The report indicates that the company is benefiting from favorable market conditions, particularly in the equity market, which is expected to drive investment performance [9]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes the EV method to assign a reasonable valuation of 0.55 times PEV for the company, reflecting an improvement in operational quality and a potential recovery in valuation multiples [10]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 3.03, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [12]. Conclusion - Overall, the report presents a positive outlook for the company, driven by strong earnings growth, favorable market conditions, and a solid valuation framework, supporting the "Buy" recommendation [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" with a target price of HKD 410.00 for the company [1]. Core Insights - Recent market expectations for the company have been influenced by short-term high-frequency tracking data, leading to concerns about IP popularity and sustainable performance growth. However, the company's Q4 domestic and overseas performance shows strong resilience, supported by its IP matrix after the sales peak of Labubu 3.0. The report identifies three potential discrepancies in market expectations: comprehensive judgment of high-frequency data, growth potential of new IPs, and the potential of content and IP ecosystem layout [1]. Summary by Sections Q4 Overseas Market Performance - The report anticipates that Q4 overseas performance, particularly in North America, will exceed market pessimism. Despite a projected 10% decline in Tik Tok sales in Q4, improved inventory levels in stores are expected to enhance offline sales significantly compared to Q3. In Southeast Asia, while some countries saw a year-on-year decline in sales, this is attributed to natural channel structure changes, with strong growth anticipated in overall channel sales [2][3]. New IP Growth Potential - The report highlights that the diversification of IPs in Q4 has been successful, with new IPs like Star People and Crybaby gaining traction, reducing the sales share of Labubu. In Southeast Asia, the sales share of Labubu has dropped below 40%, with new IPs collectively accounting for over 50% in some markets. The report suggests that the company's channel layout in domestic and Southeast Asian markets is robust, allowing for the transmission of popularity from established to emerging IPs [3][4]. Ecosystem Development and Content Layout - The company's IP content layout is entering a practical implementation phase, with plans for animated shorts and potential feature films to enhance IP influence. The report draws parallels with the success of Sanrio's Hello Kitty in leveraging content to boost brand recognition and sales. The content strategy is expected to become a new tool for breaking into broader markets, complementing existing strengths in product offerings and fan engagement [4][5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts, projecting adjusted net profits of RMB 135 billion, 185 billion, and 237 billion for 2025-2027. The target price is based on a PE ratio of 27x for 2026, reflecting the company's high barriers to entry and ongoing diversification of IP and business models [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of 792 HKD [6][5][28] Core Insights - Tencent's revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit projected to increase by 16% to 643 billion RMB [1] - Key growth drivers include the launch of multiple new games, improved advertising efficiency through AI, and enhanced support for AI mini-programs on WeChat [1][3][4] - The gaming segment is anticipated to see a 16% increase in revenue, while advertising revenue is expected to rise by 20% [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Gaming Business - Tencent's gaming revenue for Q4 is projected to grow by 16%, with the new game "Counter-Strike: Future" expected to generate 35-70 billion RMB in its first year [2][12] - The game fills a gap in Tencent's PVE shooting game offerings and has already achieved over 10 million players shortly after launch [2][12][16] Financial Technology - Financial technology revenue is expected to grow by 9%, driven by a slowdown in social retail growth [3] - AI mini-programs are anticipated to enhance e-commerce and local services, with significant growth expected in 2026 [3][19] Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue is projected to increase by 20%, driven by budget increases from long-tail advertisers and efficiency improvements from AI [4] - WeChat's advertising capabilities are evolving, with new features aimed at enhancing social commerce [4][19] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for Tencent have been slightly adjusted downwards for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profit estimates also revised [5][24] - The target price of 792 HKD corresponds to a PE ratio of 21.6 for 2026, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [5][28][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 26.00 [7][5]. Core Insights - The company expects a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, projecting a year-on-year growth of 215%-225% compared to 2024, with a remarkable increase of 723.1%-758.2% in the second half of 2025 [1][2]. - The substantial profit growth is attributed to improved investment performance and a one-time impact from new tax policies affecting corporate income tax for the insurance industry [3][1]. - The investment performance in the second half of 2025, particularly in the fourth quarter, is expected to be strong, compensating for the negative investment results in the first half of the year [2][1]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The company anticipates total premium income to reach HKD 117,046 million in 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.19% from 2024 [11]. - Total investment income is projected to increase significantly to HKD 75,816 million in 2025, marking an 83.87% increase from 2024 [11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise to HKD 27,096 million in 2025, representing a 221.36% increase compared to 2024 [11]. Tax Rate Impact - The effective tax rate is expected to decrease significantly to approximately 10.4% in the first half of 2025, contributing positively to the net profit growth [3][1]. - The clarity in tax policy is anticipated to support a low effective tax rate throughout 2025, potentially leading to an 80%-90% growth in pre-tax profit [3][1]. Liability Growth Outlook - The company is expected to see resilient growth in its liability side, particularly with the shift towards participating insurance products, which are projected to attract strong demand due to their higher actual yield compared to traditional insurance [4][1]. - The sales of participating insurance are expected to show good growth in 2026, supported by a favorable market environment and improved distribution channels [4][1]. Valuation Adjustments - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised to HKD 7.40, HKD 3.48, and HKD 3.88 respectively, reflecting adjustments of 216%, 24%, and 25% [5][13]. - The target price has been revised upwards to HKD 26 based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [5][12].

投资收益改善叠加税收政策影响，盈利大幅提振 中国太平(0966) ——中国太平 2025 年年度业绩预增公告点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 李嘉木(分析师) | 021-38038619 | lijiamu@gtht.com | S0880524030003 | 本报告导读： 中国太平发布 2025 年年度业绩预增公告，预计净利润同比增长 215%-225%，主要 受益于投资收益改善以及税收政策共同影响，维持"增持"。 投资要点： 催化剂：长端利率企稳；权益市场回暖。 风险提示：长端利率下行；权益市场波动；客需持续性有限。 | 财务摘要(百万港元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保险服务收入 | 107,489 | 111,268 | 117, ...

京东集团（9618.HK）2025 年四季报前瞻点评 四季度业绩筑底，政策利好与业务优化共促 26 年修复 glmszqdatemark 推荐 维持评级 当前价格： 113.60 港元 [Table_Author] 分析师 孔蓉 | 执业证书： S0590525110014 | | | --- | --- | | 邮箱： | kongrong@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 曹睿 | | 执业证书： S0590525110018 | | | 邮箱： | caorui@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -30% -7% 17% 40% 2025/1 2025/7 2026/1 京东集团-SW 恒生指数 相关研究 1． 京东集团（9618.HK）2025 年三季报点评： Q3 营 收 超 预 期 增 长 ， 利 润 短 期 承 压 -2025/11/18 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位/百万人民币 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 1,158,819 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Taiping [7] Core Views - China Taiping is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected to grow by 215%-225% year-on-year, primarily driven by improved investment income and favorable tax policies [2][11] - The report anticipates a stable recovery in investment returns and a positive impact from tax policy changes, which will enhance the company's profitability [11] Financial Summary - **Insurance Service Revenue**: Expected to increase from 107,489 million HKD in 2023 to 117,071 million HKD in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2% [5] - **Net Profit**: Projected to rise from 6,190 million HKD in 2023 to 26,982 million HKD in 2025, representing a staggering growth of 220.0% [5] - **Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio**: Expected to decrease from 10.63 in 2023 to 3.04 in 2025, indicating a significant improvement in valuation [5] - **Price-to-Book (PB) Ratio**: Anticipated to remain stable around 0.76 for 2025 [5] Key Catalysts - The stabilization of long-term interest rates and a recovery in the equity market are identified as key catalysts for the company's performance [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for 康耐特光学 (02276.HK) [1] Core Views - 康耐特光学's subsidiary, 朝日光学, is set to establish a joint venture with 歌尔光学 to develop and sell resin lenses and optical waveguide lenses for AI/AR/VR/MR glasses, with respective shareholdings of 30% and 70% [1] - The formation of this joint venture is seen as a strategic alliance that enhances 康耐特光学's position in the supply chain and strengthens its capabilities in providing comprehensive solutions, transitioning from a lens solution provider to a key player in the smart glasses ecosystem [8] - The company is actively expanding its smart glasses business, with increasing collaborations with overseas clients and successful project deliveries to domestic clients, indicating a positive market response [8] - The report forecasts 康耐特光学's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 564 million, 696 million, and 869 million RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 47, 38, and 31 [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 康耐特光学 are 2,061 million RMB for 2024, increasing to 3,380 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.1% to 19.2% [3] - The company's net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 31.0% to 25.0% over the same period, indicating strong profitability growth [3] - The target price for 康耐特光学 is set at 69.36 HKD, with the current price at 62.05 HKD, suggesting an upside potential [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for 康耐特光学 (02276.HK) [1] Core Views - 康耐特光学's subsidiary, 朝日光学, is set to establish a joint venture with 歌尔光学 to develop, produce, and sell resin lenses and optical waveguide lenses for AI/AR/VR/MR glasses, with respective shareholdings of 30% and 70% [1] - The strategic alliance is expected to enhance 康耐特光学's position in the smart glasses market, transitioning from a "lens solution provider" to a key player in the smart glasses ecosystem, thereby strengthening its competitive advantage in the supply chain and leading industry technology paths [8] - The company is actively expanding its smart glasses projects, with increasing collaborations with overseas clients and successful product deliveries to domestic clients, indicating a positive market response [8] - The investment suggestion highlights 康耐特光学 as a leading lens manufacturer with a promising second growth curve in smart glasses, projecting net profits of 564 million, 696 million, and 869 million yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 47, 38, and 31 [8][9] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 康耐特光学 are 2,061 million, 2,347 million, 2,835 million, and 3,380 million yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 13.9%, 20.8%, and 19.2% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 428 million, 564 million, 696 million, and 869 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 31.0%, 31.7%, 23.3%, and 25.0% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.89, 1.18, 1.45, and 1.81 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [3] - The target price for 康耐特光学 is set at 69.36 HKD, with the current price at 62.05 HKD [4]