Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" from "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company is expected to face short-term pressure on performance due to intensified competition in the packaged water and beverage industry, alongside proactive channel reform efforts. However, the long-term profit and dividend growth logic remains clear, with the company poised to return to a growth trajectory under the leadership of the new management team [2] - The company has a well-established dual-driver strategy focusing on both packaged water and beverages, with a diverse product matrix that includes multiple brands and types of water, as well as new product launches in tea, juice, and other beverage categories [1][2] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to be 13,515 million RMB in 2023, with a growth rate of 7.1%. However, it is expected to decline to 11,094 million RMB in 2025, reflecting an 18.0% decrease. Revenue is anticipated to recover to 12,754 million RMB by 2027, with growth rates of 7.6% and 6.9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,329 million RMB in 2023, with a significant drop of 42.4% to 942 million RMB in 2025. It is expected to rebound to 1,336 million RMB by 2027, with growth rates of 20.7% and 17.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][8] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.55 RMB in 2023, decreasing to 0.39 RMB in 2025, and recovering to 0.56 RMB by 2027 [3][8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 19.3% in 2023 to 7.7% in 2025, before gradually increasing to 9.2% by 2027 [3][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 16.6 in 2023, increasing to 23.4 in 2025, and then decreasing to 16.5 by 2027 [3][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance in the near term [5]. Core Insights - The founder, Zhang Yong, has resumed the role of CEO, bringing back leadership with extensive experience, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and strategic direction [1][2]. - The company is implementing the "Red Pomegranate Plan," focusing on multi-brand and multi-category development to adapt to the challenging hot pot industry environment, where the number of hot pot restaurants has decreased significantly [2][3]. - Financial projections estimate revenues of 438 billion, 464 billion, and 508 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 42.3 billion, 47.4 billion, and 53.9 billion yuan for the same years [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 41,453 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.6%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 42,755 million yuan, showing a modest growth of 3.1% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is 4,499 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 174.6%. However, a decline is projected for 2025, with net profit expected to drop to 4,231 million yuan [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is 0.81 yuan, with projections of 0.84 yuan for 2024 and a slight decrease to 0.76 yuan for 2025 [4]. Management Changes - The recent changes in the executive team are expected to bring new perspectives and efficiencies, with the new directors having substantial frontline operational experience [2]. - The board's diversity in age and experience is anticipated to contribute positively to the company's strategic initiatives [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [1][28]. Core Insights - The core business remains robust, with a focus on the progress of WeChat AI [2]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1,954 billion RMB in Q4 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 13% [7]. - The report highlights strong growth in gaming and advertising sectors, with AI continuing to empower the entire ecosystem [25]. Financial Performance Forecast 1. **Overall Performance**: - Expected revenue for Q4 2025 is 1,954 billion RMB (YoY +13%), with gross profit margin projected at 20% (YoY +3.0 percentage points) [7][10]. - Non-IFRS net profit is anticipated to be 651 billion RMB, also reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase [7][25]. 2. **Gaming Sector**: - Revenue from gaming is projected to grow by 21% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with domestic and overseas markets expected to grow by 17% and 28%, respectively [8][12]. - Key titles such as "Delta Force" and "Valorant Mobile" are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [11]. 3. **Advertising Services**: - Revenue from marketing services is expected to increase by 16% year-over-year in Q4 2025, driven by the WeChat ecosystem and strong performance in video and search ads [14][15]. - Video ads are projected to grow by over 40%, while search ads are expected to see a 50% increase [17]. 4. **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: - Revenue is expected to grow by 10% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with payment services showing steady growth and cloud services anticipated to exceed 20% growth [23][24]. Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts profitability expectations, forecasting revenues of 7,528 billion RMB, 8,475 billion RMB, and 9,315 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [25]. - Non-IFRS net profit is projected to be 2,600 billion RMB, 2,992 billion RMB, and 3,384 billion RMB for the same years [25]. - The target market capitalization for Tencent Holdings is set at 6.5 trillion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 791 HKD [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][13]. Core Insights - The company forecasts a net profit growth of no less than 30% for 2025, driven by increased sales of high-refractive and multifunctional lenses, scale effects, automation improvements, and optimized financial structure [1]. - The company is well-positioned in the smart glasses market, with ongoing collaborations with major clients and positive feedback from end-users on delivered products [7]. - The report anticipates that the company's net profit will reach 564 million HKD in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 31.7% [3][8]. Financial Performance - Total revenue is expected to grow from 2,061 million HKD in 2024 to 2,347 million HKD in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 13.9% [3]. - The company's net profit is projected to increase from 428 million HKD in 2024 to 564 million HKD in 2025, with a net profit margin improvement to 24% [3][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.89 HKD in 2024 to 1.18 HKD in 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its global production capacity, with plans in Japan and Thailand, while steadily expanding its domestic distribution channels [7]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on the smart glasses segment, which is expected to become a significant growth driver alongside its traditional lens manufacturing business [7]. - The target price for the company's stock has been raised to 69.36 HKD, reflecting a favorable valuation based on projected earnings [3][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the return of the founder of Haidilao, which is expected to stabilize the related party business and continue rapid growth in the third-party business [3]. - The company anticipates that the related party business will recover in the second half of 2025, driven by improvements in Haidilao's operations and pricing adjustments [10]. - The overseas and B2B businesses are projected to drive the third-party business's growth, with overseas revenue expected to reach 266 million RMB in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.43% [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6,147.57 million RMB in 2023 to 8,118.23 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.99% [4]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from 852.70 million RMB in 2023 to 739.43 million RMB in 2024, before recovering to 962.06 million RMB by 2027 [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 13.04 in 2023 to 14.60 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation [4]. Business Performance - The related party business is expected to stabilize, with a low profit margin of around 13% in the first half of 2025, suggesting limited room for further decline [10]. - The overseas business is anticipated to maintain rapid growth, supported by the ramp-up of production capacity in Thailand and enhanced local supply chain capabilities [10]. - The B2B segment is expected to continue its rapid growth due to brand and cost advantages, as well as the establishment of a professional B2B team [10].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Insights - The report provides a deep analysis of the operational status, financial performance, industry landscape, company development, and potential risks of Baima Tea Industry, based on its Hong Kong IPO prospectus [1]. Company Overview - Baima Tea Industry is positioned as a leading high-end tea enterprise in China, benefiting from the structural upgrade of the tea industry characterized by "overall dispersion and high-end concentration" [2]. - The company has a well-established marketing system and strong overall profitability, with a gross margin stable around 55% supported by its high-end product structure [3]. Future Outlook - The company’s development path aligns well with industry trends, focusing on brand, channel, and process barriers to continuously increase market share [4]. - The successful IPO will provide strong momentum for capacity upgrades, brand promotion, channel expansion, and digital transformation [4]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2.20 billion, 2.45 billion, and 2.86 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of +2.66%, +11.41%, and +16.53% respectively [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are forecasted to be 2.71, 3.07, and 3.85 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 12.54, 11.08, and 8.82 [5]. Industry Analysis - The Chinese tea market is expected to grow from approximately 288.9 billion RMB in 2020 to about 325.8 billion RMB by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 3.0% [46]. - The high-end tea market is projected to grow at a faster rate of 5.6% from 2024 to 2029, driven by consumer upgrades and brand recognition [47][48]. Competitive Position - Baima Tea holds a leading market share of 1.7% in the high-end tea segment, with a revenue of 1.758 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting an 18.2% increase from 2022 [61]. - The company has a robust channel presence with over 3,500 offline stores, the highest in the industry, and a significant number of franchise stores [61].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) is "Buy" with a current price of 617.50 HKD and a fair value estimate of 744.46 HKD [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that advertising and gaming continue to show strong momentum, with significant investments in AI infrastructure [3][7]. - The forecast for Q4 2025 anticipates revenue of 1,947 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year growth of 13% [7]. - The report projects that Tencent's revenue will reach 7,522 billion RMB in 2025 and 8,290 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 13.9% and 10.2% respectively [7][24]. Financial Projections - Revenue (in billion RMB): - 2023A: 6,090 - 2024A: 6,603 - 2025E: 7,522 - 2026E: 8,290 - 2027E: 8,973 - Growth Rates (%): - 2023A: 9.8% - 2024A: 8.4% - 2025E: 13.9% - 2026E: 10.2% - 2027E: 8.2% [4]. - Adjusted Net Profit (in billion RMB): - 2023A: 1,577 - 2024A: 2,227 - 2025E: 2,564 - 2026E: 2,929 - 2027E: 3,235 - Growth Rates (%): - 2023A: 36.4% - 2024A: 41.2% - 2025E: 15.1% - 2026E: 14.2% - 2027E: 10.5% [4]. Business Segment Performance - Gaming revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to reach 574 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 17% [7]. - Social network revenue is projected at 324 billion RMB for Q4 2025, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase [7]. - Marketing services revenue is anticipated to be 421 billion RMB for Q4 2025, showing a 20% year-over-year growth [7]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the fair value of Tencent's core business at 6.35 trillion HKD, leading to a total fair value of 744.46 HKD per share [24][27].

证券研究报告 连连数字 (2598 HK) 快速增长的独立跨境支付服务商 2026 年 1 月 16 日│中国香港 其他多元金融 | 华泰研究 | | 首次覆盖 | 投资评级(首评): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 16 日│中国香港 | 其他多元金融 | 目标价(港币): | 10.20 | | | | SAC No. S0570521010001 SFC No. AWF297 lijian@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6112 陈宇轩* 研究员 SAC No. S0570524070010 chenyuxuan020827@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (港币 截至 1 月 15 日) | 6.99 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (港币百万) | 7,845 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (港币百万) | 58.65 | | 52 周价格范围 (港币) | 5.50-18.00 | 股价走势图 (39) (9) 22 53 83 Jan-25 May-25 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 4.05 [7][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in trade and price elasticity, with a significant increase in uranium prices anticipated due to global nuclear energy revival [1]. - The overall production and operational performance for 2025 is in line with expectations, with a notable recovery in uranium trade prices in the second half of 2025 [1][3]. - The company is one of the most elastic uranium producers in terms of performance relative to spot prices, with 70% of its sales framework agreements tied to spot pricing mechanisms from 2026 to 2028 [1]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales Outlook - The company's total uranium production for 2025 is projected at 2,699.0 tons, a slight decrease of 2% year-on-year. The Ortalyk mine shows a significant increase of 68%, while the Semizbay-U mine experiences an 18% decline [2]. - Looking ahead, the sales framework agreements for 2026 and 2027 indicate production increases to approximately 2,935 tons and 3,300 tons, respectively, with Ortalyk mine expected to grow by 15% and 18% [2]. Trade and Pricing - The uranium trade delivery prices have shown a clear recovery, with prices increasing from $56.44/lbs in Q1 to $79.90/lbs in Q4 of 2025. The average receiving price for the year was $73.95/lbs, with a similar average for deliveries [3]. - The report anticipates that the recovery in trade prices will lead to a restoration of profits in the international trade business for the entire year [3]. Strategic Developments - The inclusion of uranium in the U.S. Section 232 critical minerals list is expected to accelerate the replenishment cycle, tightening supply and potentially driving prices higher [4]. - The U.S. government's actions to ensure sufficient uranium supply are likely to bolster long-term confidence in nuclear power development [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to adjustments in production plans, the company's net profit for 2025 has been revised down by 34% to HKD 231 million. However, profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted upwards to HKD 1.039 billion and HKD 1.363 billion, respectively [5]. - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 29.6x for 2026, leading to a target price increase from HKD 3.01 to HKD 4.05 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of 24 HKD, based on a 20x PE for 2026 [1][3][7]. Core Insights - Li Ning's overall platform revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) experienced a low single-digit decline in Q4 2025, with offline channels seeing a mid-single-digit decline while e-commerce growth remained flat [2][3]. - The retail performance outperformed wholesale due to increased clearance and promotional efforts in the second half of the year, with notable growth in specific e-commerce channels like Douyin and JD [2]. - The introduction of new store formats, particularly the "Dragon Store," has been well-received, targeting consumers who value quality and brand prestige, indicating potential for future growth [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 28.941 billion RMB, 30.559 billion RMB, and 31.889 billion RMB, respectively, with expected EPS of 1.04, 1.08, and 1.17 RMB [5][11]. - The company anticipates a recovery in profitability with a projected net profit of 2.675 billion RMB in 2025, increasing to 2.787 billion RMB in 2026 and 3.006 billion RMB in 2027 [5][11]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 49.4% for the coming years, reflecting effective cost management [5][12].