Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - Recent nationwide temperature drops have boosted sales, particularly for winter apparel, with significant growth in sales of women's down jackets and men's vests during the pre-sale period [8] - The company expects steady growth in performance, maintaining a double-digit growth guidance for the year, with a projected revenue increase of 10% and profit growth exceeding revenue growth [8] - The company has a consistent dividend payout ratio above 80%, with an estimated dividend yield of around 6% for FY26 [8] - The successful debut of the "Master Puff" collection at Paris Fashion Week enhances the company's global brand influence [8] - The appointment of renowned designer Kim Jones is expected to elevate product quality and drive high-end market penetration [8] - The company has established a strong consumer recognition in the down jacket sector and is actively expanding into outdoor and functional apparel markets [8] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2024 to FY2028 are as follows: - FY2024: 23,214 million RMB - FY2025: 25,902 million RMB - FY2026E: 28,465 million RMB - FY2027E: 31,272 million RMB - FY2028E: 34,210 million RMB - The expected growth rates for revenue are 38% for FY2024, 12% for FY2025, and gradually decreasing to 9% by FY2028 [6] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - FY2024: 3,074 million RMB - FY2025: 3,514 million RMB - FY2026E: 3,899 million RMB - FY2027E: 4,340 million RMB - FY2028E: 4,754 million RMB - The projected net profit growth rates are 44% for FY2024, 14% for FY2025, and stabilizing around 10% by FY2028 [6][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][18] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve resilient revenue growth in Q3, with a projected year-on-year revenue increase of 9.8% and an adjusted net profit growth of 14.3% [1][9] - The core OTA business is performing well, with OTA revenue expected to grow by 14.9% year-on-year in Q3, driven by strong growth in accommodation booking and transportation services [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management has been completed, enhancing the company's supply chain and positioning it among the top 10 hotel management companies in China [3][11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 revenue is projected to grow by 9.8% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 14.3% [1][9] - The OTA business is anticipated to see a 14.9% increase in revenue, with accommodation bookings expected to rise by 14.5% and transportation services by 9.5% [2][10] Business Segments - The OTA segment is expected to benefit from a combination of online market penetration and international business growth, while the vacation segment is under pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 11% due to low outbound travel willingness in Southeast Asia [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management is expected to positively impact profitability, with the company now managing over 2,700 hotels and a significant expansion in high-end hotel offerings [3][11] Financial Projections - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 33.7 billion, 39.3 billion, and 45.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [4][5] - Revenue is expected to reach 11.896 billion in 2023, growing to 24.712 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12% [5][16]

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has entered a global strategic partnership with Takeda to co-develop three therapies, including IBI363 and IBI343, with a total potential deal value of up to $11.4 billion [5] - IBI363 is a next-generation immune checkpoint inhibitor that has shown promising results in clinical trials for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and colorectal cancer (CRC) [5] - IBI343 targets CLDN18.2 and is being developed for pancreatic and gastric cancers, with ongoing clinical trials showing encouraging results [5] - The company aims to become a leading global biopharmaceutical enterprise, leveraging its expertise in IO and ADC fields alongside Takeda's commercialization capabilities [5] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 114.4 billion, 149.7 billion, and 201.1 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 21.4%, 30.9%, and 34.3% [6][7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 864.68 million, 1,643.79 million, and 2,749.81 million CNY for the same years, reflecting significant growth [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.06 CNY in 2024 to 1.60 CNY by 2027 [7] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the oncology pipeline is projected to grow from 80.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 133.1 billion CNY in 2027, with a stable gross margin of around 85% [9] - Non-oncology pipeline revenues are expected to increase significantly, from 2 billion CNY in 2024 to 60 billion CNY in 2027, with a gross margin of 78% [9] - Licensing income is forecasted to stabilize at around 7 billion CNY annually from 2025 to 2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global leader in the ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) sector, with a strong focus on clinical development and international expansion [1][13]. - The company has established four ADC technology platforms and has nine products in clinical research, with the first product expected to be launched soon [1][20]. - The company has partnered with BioNTech to develop innovative IO+ADC therapies, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [3][26]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2019, the company has rapidly developed its ADC platform and is advancing clinical trials globally [1][13]. - The company has received significant investments from well-known pharmaceutical funds, indicating strong market confidence [14]. Product Pipeline - The core product DB-1303, a HER2 ADC, is expected to be submitted for approval in both China and the U.S. by 2025, targeting breast cancer indications [2][30]. - DB-1311, a B7-H3 ADC, shows promising early clinical data for prostate cancer, with a potential peak sales forecast of 2 billion RMB in China [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates revenues of 1.95 billion RMB in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 0.5% [4]. - The estimated market value of the company is approximately 426.67 billion RMB based on product valuations [3]. Strategic Partnerships - The company has successfully licensed multiple ADC products to BioNTech, enhancing its global reach and development capabilities [3][26]. - Collaborations with other firms like BeiGene and GSK have also been established, with total transaction values exceeding 6 billion USD [26]. Market Potential - The global ADC market is expanding, with the company’s products positioned to capture significant market share, particularly in the HER2 and B7-H3 segments [30][32].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a score of 5.3 for the IPO, suggesting a recommendation to subscribe [12] Core Insights - Minglue Technology is positioned as the largest data intelligence application software provider in China by total revenue in 2024, focusing on marketing intelligence and operational intelligence [1][4] - The company has shown a positive trend in financial performance, with revenues projected to grow from 12.69 billion RMB in 2022 to 14.62 billion RMB in 2024, despite a temporary decline in 2024 due to strategic adjustments [2] - The data intelligence application software market in China is expected to grow significantly, from 169 billion RMB in 2020 to 327 billion RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.9% [3][4] Company Overview - Minglue Technology's main business revolves around providing data intelligence products and solutions, with a rich product matrix in both marketing and operational intelligence [1] - The company has a high cross-selling rate, with cross-business line sales increasing from 11.9% in 2023 to 19.7% in 2024, and maintaining over 86% in cross-product sales [1] Financial Performance - Revenue figures for Minglue Technology are projected to be 12.69 billion RMB in 2022, 14.62 billion RMB in 2023, 13.81 billion RMB in 2024, and 5.65 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, with a recovery expected in the latter half of 2025 [2] - The company is expected to achieve operational profit of 6.1 million RMB in the first half of 2025, marking its first profit after continuous losses from 2022 to 2024 [2] Industry Status and Outlook - The data intelligence application software market in China is projected to reach 675 billion RMB by 2029, with a CAGR of 15.6% from 2024 to 2029 [3][4] - Marketing intelligence software is expected to grow from 44 billion RMB in 2020 to 93 billion RMB in 2024, while operational intelligence software is projected to grow from 22 billion RMB to 51 billion RMB in the same period [3] Advantages and Opportunities - Minglue Technology holds a significant competitive advantage as a leading player in the rapidly growing data intelligence application software market [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the overall market growth, which is expected to provide substantial revenue opportunities [4]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 23 日 九兴控股（01836.HK） 25Q3 订单量增价减，生产效率逐步恢复正常 消费品/轻工纺服 25Q3 收入增长 4%，出货量+8%，出货价-4%；短期产能效率影响逐步消除， 虽然短期盈利能力承压，但中长期订单确定性强，盈利能力有望逐步回升，我 们小幅下调盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年净利润 1.61 亿美元、1.79 亿美元、 1.98 亿美元，同比增速为-6%、11%、11%，对应 25PE11X，26PE10X，维持 强烈推荐评级。 ❑ 风险提示：汇率波动影响利润风险、新工厂拓产进度不及预期风险、海外需 求不佳导致公司接单承压风险、关税影响利润风险。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元,USD) | 1499 | 1545 | 1578 | 1660 | 1753 | | 同比增长 | -8% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 6% | | 营业利润(百万元, ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 1.59 HKD based on a 1.2x PB for 2026 [10][19]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company's photovoltaic materials business turned profitable, driven by a reduction in internal competition, positioning leading companies to navigate the cycle effectively [2][10]. - The average selling price of granular silicon increased to 42.12 RMB/kg in Q3 2025, with expectations for further price stability and growth in Q4 2025 and 2026 [10]. - The company plans to utilize funds from a recent subscription announcement for mergers and acquisitions to enhance its granular silicon production capacity, which is expected to balance supply and demand in the industry [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 33.7 billion RMB, with a decline of 6.2% year-on-year. Revenue is expected to drop significantly in 2024 to 15.1 billion RMB, followed by a gradual recovery [4]. - Gross profit is forecasted to be 11.69 billion RMB in 2023, turning negative in 2024 with a loss of 2.51 billion RMB, before recovering to 4.1 billion RMB in 2026 [4]. - Net profit is expected to be 2.51 billion RMB in 2023, declining to a loss of 4.75 billion RMB in 2024, with a return to profitability projected in 2026 with a net profit of 1.32 billion RMB [4]. Market Data - The company's current market capitalization is approximately 38.44 billion HKD, with a share price range over the past 52 weeks between 0.73 and 1.72 HKD [7]. - The average production cash cost for granular silicon in Q3 2025 was 24.16 RMB/kg, showing a decrease of 1.15 RMB/kg from the previous quarter [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The main brand of the company has shown steady growth in Q3 2025, while the subsidiary brand, Saucony, continues to maintain rapid growth [7] - The company has a healthy inventory turnover of four to four and a half months, indicating stable retail sales despite external factors [7] - The company is expanding its presence in the outlet channel and overseas markets, enhancing its competitive edge [7] - The company is focusing on product iteration and category expansion to drive growth in high-end brands [7] - Long-term growth potential is supported by continuous R&D investment and a strong brand image [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 14,486.83 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.70% [6] - Net profit for 2025 is projected to be 1,384.97 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.84% [6] - Earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 0.49 RMB [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.73% in 2025 [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 10.75 in 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in performance due to fluctuations in demand during the first half of the fiscal year, with revenue and net profit decreasing by 5.8% and 9.7% year-on-year, respectively [5][9] - The company continues to enhance its omnichannel retail capabilities and has optimized its offline store network while expanding its online presence [9] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026 to 2028, lowering the expected net profit by 5% to 6% [9] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of fiscal year 2026, the company reported revenue of 12.3 billion RMB, down 5.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 790 million RMB, down 9.7% year-on-year [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the period was 0.13 RMB, with a proposed interim dividend of 0.13 RMB per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 102.2% [5] - The gross margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 41.0%, while the operating margin fell by 0.5 percentage points to 8.1% [6][8] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the main brands (Nike and Adidas) decreased by 4.8%, while other brand revenues fell by 12.2% [7] - Retail and wholesale revenues declined by 3.0% and 20.3%, respectively, with total store count decreasing by 332 [7] Cash Flow and Inventory Management - The company reported a 48.2% decrease in operating net cash flow to 1.35 billion RMB [8] - Inventory as of August 2025 decreased by 2.8% quarter-on-quarter to 5.83 billion RMB, with inventory turnover days increasing by 2 days year-on-year [8] Future Outlook - The company is focusing on improving operational efficiency and expanding its brand matrix, including collaborations with new running and outdoor brands [9] - The projected EPS for fiscal years 2026 to 2028 is expected to be 0.20, 0.22, and 0.24 RMB, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 14, and 12 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown a decline in revenue and net profit for FY2026H1, with revenue at 12.299 billion and net profit at 0.789 billion, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 5.8% and 9.7% respectively [2] - The company has implemented a strategy to improve inventory management and enhance online sales through a combination of platform e-commerce, content e-commerce, and private domain operations [5][6] - The company has established partnerships with high-end running brands and outdoor brands, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2026H1, the company's revenue, net profit, and operating cash flow were 12.299 billion, 0.789 billion, and 1.355 billion respectively, with year-on-year declines of 5.8%, 9.7%, and 48.2% [2] - The company proposed a cash dividend of 0.13 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 102% and a dividend yield of 8.52% [2] - The gross profit margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 41.0%, while the net profit margin fell by 0.3 percentage points to 6.4% [4] Store and Sales Analysis - The number of stores decreased by 18.3%, while the sales area per store increased by 7.2% [3] - Retail and wholesale revenues were 10.925 billion and 2.035 billion respectively, with year-on-year declines of 3% and 20% [3] - The company has adjusted its retail store structure with a tailored approach for each product [3] Online and Brand Strategy - The company has achieved double-digit growth in online retail sales, leveraging both public and private domains [3] - The company has opened its first running concept store, ektos, in Shanghai, focusing on runner needs to enhance customer loyalty [6] - The company has collaborated with brands like nordaTM and Soar to meet differentiated market demands [6] Future Outlook - The company maintains revenue forecasts of 26.385 billion, 27.918 billion, and 29.449 billion for FY26-28, with net profit forecasts of 1.290 billion, 1.452 billion, and 1.624 billion respectively [6] - The company is expected to benefit from a digital transformation that enhances online sales and optimizes store structures [6]