Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, YuRan Dairy [5] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in China's dairy industry, with both a strong market position and undervalued stock, benefiting from the upward cycle of beef cattle and the reversal of raw milk prices, which is expected to lead to high returns from cattle disposal and significant growth in raw milk production [1][2] - The raw milk price is nearing a turning point, with a projected decline in dairy cow inventory by 8% from the end of 2023 to October 2025, which is expected to support a moderate increase in milk prices [1] - The company has established the largest modern dairy farm network in China, operating 100 farms across 17 provinces, with a dairy cow inventory of 620,000 heads and a raw milk production of 2.08 million tons in the first half of 2025, leading the industry [1][18] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - YuRan Dairy is a leader in the upstream dairy market, covering the entire industry chain from breeding to raw milk production, and is committed to high-quality development and sustainable practices [17] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with a significant stake held by Yili Group, which also serves as a core customer, ensuring a deep business relationship [22] 2. Beef Cattle Market - The beef cattle market is expected to experience a structural shortage due to a decline in breeding cows, which will support long-term price increases [2][47] - The company is projected to benefit from the rising prices of calves and breeding cattle, with expected revenue growth from cattle disposal of 72% in 2025 [2] 3. Raw Milk Market - The raw milk business is expected to see significant growth, with sales projected to exceed 4 million tons by 2025, benefiting from cost reductions and efficiency improvements [1][3] - The company has a strong sales relationship with Yili, with 94.8% of its raw milk sales going to Yili at a price significantly higher than the industry average [1] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 200.96 billion yuan in 2024 to 258.98 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit projected to increase from a loss of 691 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 4.01 billion yuan in 2027 [11][9] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease significantly, indicating a potential for valuation improvement [9] 5. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the dairy and beef markets, with a turning point expected in the raw milk cycle and a long-term upward trend in beef prices due to structural supply issues [1][68] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on these market dynamics, with a robust operational framework and strategic partnerships [1][4]

[Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 20 日 [Table_Title] Q4 主品牌流水略有下滑 [Table_Title2] 安踏体育(2020.HK) | 评级： [Table_DataInfo] | 买入 | 股票代码： | 2020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 101.6/80.25 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 2,308.64 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 82.55 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 2,308.64 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 2,796.65 | 事件概述 [Table_Summary] 公司公告 2025Q4 运营数据：25Q4 主品牌/FILA/其他品牌同比低单位数负增长/中单位数正增长/35-40%正 增长。2025 全年安踏/FILA/其他品牌零售金额同比录得低单位数/中单位数/45-50%的正增长。 证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 分析判断 我们分析，1）安踏品牌 2025Q4 实现低单位数负增长，环比 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, YuRan Dairy [5] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in China's dairy industry, with both a strong market position and undervalued stock, benefiting from the upward cycle of beef cattle and the reversal of raw milk prices, which is expected to lead to high returns from cattle disposal and significant growth in raw milk production [1][2] - The raw milk price is nearing a turning point, with current prices at the bottom of the cycle, and a projected decline in dairy cow inventory by 8% by October 2025 compared to the end of 2023, which will support a moderate increase in milk prices [1] - The company has established the largest modern dairy farm network in China, operating 100 farms across 17 provinces, with a dairy cow inventory of 620,000 heads and a raw milk production of 2.08 million tons in the first half of 2025, ranking first in the country [1][18] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - YuRan Dairy is a leader in the upstream dairy market in China, covering the entire industry chain from breeding to raw milk production, and is committed to high-quality development and sustainable practices [17] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with Yili Group as the largest shareholder, holding 33.93% of the shares, which strengthens the business relationship and sales advantages [22] 2. Beef Cattle Market - The beef cattle market is expected to experience a structural shortage, supporting long-term price increases due to a significant reduction in inventory and a weak replenishment of breeding cows [2][38] - The company is projected to benefit from the rising prices of calves and breeding cattle, with expected revenue growth from cattle disposal of 72% in 2025, 25% in 2026, and 34% in 2027 [2] 3. Raw Milk Market - The raw milk business is expected to have high growth elasticity, with a projected sales volume exceeding 4 million tons by 2025, benefiting from cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1][3] - The company’s raw milk sales to Yili accounted for 94.8% of its total raw milk revenue, with a selling price of 3.87 yuan/kg, which is 25.6% higher than the industry average [1] 4. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is expected to grow steadily, with projected revenues of 215.89 billion yuan in 2025, 234.86 billion yuan in 2026, and 258.98 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 7.43%, 8.78%, and 10.27% respectively [9] - The net profit is projected to recover significantly, with estimates of 9.71 billion yuan in 2025, 20.37 billion yuan in 2026, and 40.10 billion yuan in 2027, corresponding to growth rates of 240.60%, 109.67%, and 96.88% respectively [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Shenzhen International (00152) [2] Core Views - Shenzhen International is controlled by the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and holds quality assets in the Greater Bay Area [8] - The logistics business serves as a solid foundation, with REITs spin-offs and logistics park upgrades opening up profit elasticity [8] - The toll road and port businesses provide stable profit contributions, with a central profit contribution of approximately HKD 1.1 billion [18] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Control and Asset Management - Shenzhen International is a state-owned enterprise under the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focusing on urban support development and operations [13][14] 2. Logistics Business Development - The logistics business is centered around logistics parks, with an operational area of 6.71 million square meters as of H1 2025, and a compound annual growth rate of 24.07% from 2014 to 2024 [23][24] - The company has completed the REITs spin-off for five projects, contributing a total of HKD 14.2 billion to net profit as of H1 2025 [8][38] - The logistics park projects are expected to generate significant land appreciation and development profits, with projected after-tax returns of HKD 136.5 billion from the South China logistics park project [60][62] 3. Toll Road and Port Business - The toll road and port operations are managed by subsidiaries, contributing a stable profit base with a net profit of HKD 4.9 billion in H1 2025 [65] - The company holds approximately 47.3% equity in Shenzhen Expressway, which operates 16 toll road projects with a total toll mileage of 613 kilometers [66] 4. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 17.06 billion, HKD 17.61 billion, and HKD 18.75 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 3.17 billion, HKD 3.47 billion, and HKD 3.53 billion [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a "national brand" aiming for global expansion, leveraging its technological advancements and multi-brand strategy to drive growth [8]. - The company has established a comprehensive technology stack and a diverse brand matrix to cater to various consumer needs, focusing on both domestic and international markets [8]. - The financial outlook is strong, with significant revenue and profit growth projected over the next few years, supported by a robust international presence and innovative product offerings [8]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 163.21 billion in 2023 to RMB 454.24 billion by 2027, with growth rates of 76.2% in 2023 and 17.9% in 2027 [2]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from RMB 17.40 billion in 2023 to RMB 40.37 billion in 2027 [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from RMB 11.95 billion in 2023 to RMB 24.96 billion in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 90.8% in 2023 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to grow from RMB 2.19 in 2023 to RMB 4.30 in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio projected to decrease from 8.8 in 2025 to 6.4 in 2027 [2]. Business Model - The company operates primarily in the passenger vehicle sector, with a revenue share of 91.5% from passenger vehicles in 2024 [25]. - The brand matrix includes five major brands: Chery, Jietu, Xingtu, iCAR, and Zhijie, each targeting different market segments [25]. - The company has a strong international presence, with overseas revenue expected to reach RMB 1,008.97 billion by 2024, accounting for 46.3% of total revenue [32]. Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its product offerings and expand its global footprint through strategic investments in R&D and international operations [54]. - The focus on new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to drive significant revenue growth, with NEV revenue projected to reach RMB 589.31 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 644.8% [44]. - The company is committed to continuous innovation and technological advancement, positioning itself as a leader in the evolving automotive landscape [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yadea Holdings (1585.HK) with a target price of HKD 16.43, indicating a potential upside of 37.5% from the current price of HKD 11.95 [1][7][14]. Core Insights - The company announced a significant profit increase for 2025, with an expected net profit of at least RMB 2.9 billion, representing a growth of over 128% compared to RMB 1.27 billion in 2024. This increase is attributed to higher sales of electric two-wheelers and optimized product structure [4][9]. - The new national standard for electric bicycles is set to stabilize the market post-Chinese New Year 2026, as the transition period for old standard products ends, which is expected to restore consumer purchasing willingness [5][10]. - Yadea is focusing on long-term growth through continuous investment in R&D and marketing, enhancing its product competitiveness and global marketing capabilities. In H1 2025, the company sold approximately 8.79 million electric scooters and bicycles, a year-on-year increase of about 37.8%, with a gross margin rising to 19.6% [6][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Yadea from 2025 to 2027 are RMB 35.78 billion (+26.7%), RMB 40.48 billion (+13.1%), and RMB 45.59 billion (+12.6%) respectively. The net profit forecasts are RMB 2.99 billion (+135%), RMB 3.25 billion (+8.8%), and RMB 3.55 billion (+9.3%) [12][8]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 18.7% in 2025 to 19.8% in 2027, reflecting ongoing enhancements in product structure and sales volume [8].

证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2026 年 01 月 20 日 康哲药业（00867.HK） 创新化+国际化助力商业化龙头迈入新阶段 消费品/生物医药 康哲是一家以商业化能力为特色的聚焦药品全生命周期的平台型药企，2018 年 起开启"新康哲"转型，并逐步消化核心产品集采影响，创新化和国际化成为 带动公司增长的核心动力；2024 年进入创新产品商业化元年，多个重磅创新药 陆续上市，并通过产业国际化公司康联达布局东南亚等新兴市场业务。 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 8013 | 7469 | 8248 | 10061 | 11467 | | 同比增长 | -12% | -7% | 10% | 22% | 14% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2746 | 1651 | 1774 | 2091 | 2439 | | 同比增长 | -23% | -40% | 7% | 18% | 17% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 2401 | 1620 ...

雅迪控股（1585.HK） 2026-1-20 星期二 | 目标价： | | 16.43 | 港元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 | 价： | 11.95 | 港元 | | 预计升幅： | | | 37.5% | 重要数据 | 日期 | 2026-1-19 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | 11.95 | | 总股本（亿股） | 31.13 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 371 | | 净资产（亿港元） | 91.8 | | 总资产（亿港元） | 303.35 | | 52 周高低（港元） | 16.7/11.01 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 3.24 | 数据来源: Wind 、国元证券经纪(香港)整理 主要股东 | 大为投资 | 46.4% | | --- | --- | | 方圆投资 | 16.56% | 相关报告 更新报告：行业新政策落地，公司业务 有望回归增长-YS-20250120 更新报告：产品与营销服双轮驱动，业 绩增长动力充沛-YS-20240131 深度报告：解决短途出行时代痛点，综 合优势拓展成长空间-20230417 | 研究 ...

四问四答核心分歧，冉冉升起的中国奢侈品牌典范 [Table_CoverStock] —老铺黄金(6181.HK)公司深度报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 01 月 20 日 [Table_CoverAuthor] 姜文镪 骆峥 S1500524120004 S1500525020001 jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com luozheng1@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 港股深度报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 老铺黄金 (6181.HK) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 [Table_Chart] 资料来源：iFind，信达证券研发中心 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 老铺黄金 恒生指数 [Table_BaseData] 公司主要数据 | 收盘价（港元） | 695.00 | | --- | --- | | 52 周内股价波动区间 | 285.20-1108.00 | | (港元) | | | 最近一月涨跌幅(％) | +3.81 | | 总股本(亿股) | 1.76 | | 流 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 93.2, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 68.35 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company plans to focus on product specialization and optimize its operational system in 2026, enhancing development certainty and significantly expanding its building block vehicle category [1]. - The company aims to increase the number of SKUs in 2025 to expand its IP characters and product forms, although some products may underperform due to trial and error [1]. - The company will concentrate resources on successful product lines and categories in 2026, while controlling personnel scale and enhancing R&D process management [1]. - The existing core IPs will innovate styles and diversify price ranges, with several IPs expected to benefit from the release of related movies in 2026 [2]. - The company has accelerated the acquisition of overseas licensed IPs, with Southeast Asia and North America expected to provide strong support for revenue growth [3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly from HKD 876.69 million in 2023 to HKD 4,899 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 169.27% from 2023 to 2024 and 27.05% from 2026 to 2027 [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching HKD 599.90 million, and further increasing to HKD 1,101.44 million by 2027 [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -2.69 in 2024 to 4.42 in 2027, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [8]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 25.35 in 2025 to 13.81 in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [8].