特步国际 01368.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 主品牌短期承压 看好索康尼未来持续快增 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 25 年四季度经营数据以及运动服饰消费行业目前的形势，我们调整公司盈 利预测，同时考虑到股本的变动，预计公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 0.49、 0.53 元和 0.59 元（原预测分别为 0.49、0.56 元和 0.62 元）。参考可比公司，给予 公司 2026 年 12 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 7.06 港币（1 人民币=1.11 港币），维持 "买入"评级。 风险提示 行业竞争加剧，运动服饰消费复苏不及预期，新品牌增长低于预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 14,346 | 13,577 | 14,380 | 15,321 | 16,451 | | 同比增长 (%) | 10.9% | -5.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has successfully expanded its store formats, with the introduction of "锅圈小炒" (small stir-fry restaurants) expected to create new growth opportunities. This new format utilizes a standardized supply chain and smart cooking robots, allowing for quick meal preparation and competitive pricing compared to takeout [7] - The company has demonstrated strong same-store sales growth, even in the face of high comparatives, indicating effective product innovation and refined membership management. The management's deep involvement in store operations and flexible supply chain management has been highlighted as a previously underestimated capability [7] - The financial forecasts have been revised upwards due to anticipated better performance in store openings and same-store revenue. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 4.5 billion, 6.0 billion, and 7.6 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 94%, 34%, and 27% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6,100 million RMB in 2023 to 10,916 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.06% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 239.64 million RMB in 2023 to 755.98 million RMB in 2027, with significant growth in the coming years [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.09 RMB in 2023 to 0.28 RMB in 2027, indicating a strong improvement in profitability [1]

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·工业工程(HS) 希迪智驾（03881.HK） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 张良卫 执业证书：S0600516070001 021-60199793 zhanglw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 黄细里 执业证书：S0600520010001 021-60199793 huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 孙仁昊 深耕无人矿卡的智能驾驶平台型企业 2026 年 01 月 24 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 133.41 | 410.04 | 1,078.00 | 2,000.04 | 4,049.56 | | 同比(%) | 327.98 | 207.36 | 162.90 | 85.53 | 102.47 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (255.08) | (580.71) | (268. ...

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·工业工程(HS) 希迪智驾（03881.HK） 深耕无人矿卡的智能驾驶平台型企业 2026 年 01 月 24 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 133.41 | 410.04 | 1,078.00 | 2,000.04 | 4,049.56 | | 同比(%) | 327.98 | 207.36 | 162.90 | 85.53 | 102.47 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (255.08) | (580.71) | (268.79) | 102.72 | 627.06 | | 同比(%) | 3.01 | (127.66) | 53.71 | 138.22 | 510.45 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (5.83) | (13.26) | (6.14) | 2.35 | 14.32 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | (43.12) | (18 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 中国太平（00966.HK）2025 年报预增点评 推荐（维持） 业绩增长两倍，主因投资与税收 目标价：29.6 港元 事项： ❖ 根据公司初步估算，本集团 2025 年度股东应占溢利预计同比增加 215%至 225%。 评论： 一、对于新保险合同准则执行年度为 2025 年度及之前的企业，自 2026 年起以 新保险合同准则为基础，作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 企业首次执行《保险合同准则》产生的留存收益累积影响数，按税前金额计入 2026 年度应纳税所得额，或自 2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税 所得额。两种方法可自主选择，一经选择不得更改。 首次执行年度至 2025 年度期间，企业执行《保险合同准则》为基础计算的应 纳税所得额与已申报的应纳税所得额的差额，计入 2026 年度应纳税所得额， 或自 2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税所得额。 二、对于 2026 年度及以后年度为首次执行年度的企业，在计算缴纳企业所得 税时，自首次执行年度起以《保险合同准则》为基础，按照企业所得税现行规 定作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 企业因执行《保险合同准则》产生的留 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 评论： 一、对于新保险合同准则执行年度为 2025 年度及之前的企业，自 2026 年起以 新保险合同准则为基础，作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 企业首次执行《保险合同准则》产生的留存收益累积影响数，按税前金额计入 2026 年度应纳税所得额，或自 2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税 所得额。两种方法可自主选择，一经选择不得更改。 首次执行年度至 2025 年度期间，企业执行《保险合同准则》为基础计算的应 纳税所得额与已申报的应纳税所得额的差额，计入 2026 年度应纳税所得额， 或自 2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税所得额。 二、对于 2026 年度及以后年度为首次执行年度的企业，在计算缴纳企业所得 税时，自首次执行年度起以《保险合同准则》为基础，按照企业所得税现行规 定作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 中国太平（00966.HK）2025 年报预增点评 推荐（维持） 业绩增长两倍，主因投资与税收 目标价：29.6 港元 事项： ❖ 根据公司初步估算，本集团 2025 年度股东应占溢利预计同比增加 215%至 225%。 企业因执行《保险合同准则》产生的留 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express maintains significant competitive advantages, including leading market share, superior network operational capabilities, brand premium, stronger stability among franchisees, and robust financial strength [3][14] - In the short to medium term, ZTO's strategy of "pursuing both volume and quality" is expected to enhance its market share as the demand structure in the express delivery industry optimizes due to price increases and e-commerce taxation [3] - Long-term, as the competitive landscape stabilizes, ZTO is anticipated to develop a diversified service system, leading to improved profitability [3] Summary by Sections Industry Development Review - The express delivery demand in China has transitioned from rapid growth to steady growth, with the volume expected to increase from 2.34 billion pieces in 2010 to 199 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.5% [1][34] - The competitive landscape has returned to rationality, with price competition being controlled within reasonable limits [1] Company Development Review - ZTO Express has distinguished itself in the industry through innovative models and strategic foresight, becoming the first private express company to open inter-provincial network services in 2005 and implementing a paid delivery fee model in 2007 [2] - The company has consistently led in investments in resources such as trunk vehicles and automation equipment, establishing a virtuous cycle of scale, cost, profit, and quality [2] Company Highlights - ZTO Express's competitive advantages remain strong, with expectations for continued market share growth and an optimized competitive landscape [3] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 9.48 billion, 10.59 billion, and 11.78 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 11.7%, and 11.2% [3][5] - The current stock price is considered to be at a low point, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12X and 11X for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating significant long-term investment value [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for trendy toys is not a false need; entertainment is a necessity. The "Kidult" trend, driven by demographic changes, media evolution, and consumer psychology, is a long-term trend in the toy industry, exemplified by the increasing market share of companies targeting adult consumers [1][14] - The global entertainment and media industry is projected to reach approximately $3 trillion by 2024, indicating a growing market for diversified entertainment offerings [1][35] Supply-Side Growth Potential - Store Expansion: The company has significant room for growth in retail locations, with a projected increase in global retail stores from 571 in 2025, with a substantial portion located in China [2][58] - Increased Store Traffic: Domestic single-store membership is expected to rise from 145,000 to nearly 200,000, indicating potential for higher customer traffic [2] - Higher Member Spending: The maturity of IPs is expected to drive up member spending, as seen with the SKULLPANDA IP, where the cost to collect all items increased significantly from 5,922 RMB in 2021 to 47,430 RMB in 2025 [2] Demand-Side Competitive Barriers - Artist Talent Barrier: The company has established relationships with mature toy artists, creating a long-term competitive advantage [3] - Marketing Resource Barrier: The company's business model relies on top-tier brand collaborations and celebrity endorsements, which are core competitive barriers [3] - User Data Asset Barrier: The company's direct sales channels enhance its ability to control user data and market feedback, improving operational efficiency [3] Valuation Safety Margin - The company's valuation is expected to be significantly above 10X PE, given its growth stage and the rising influence of China's cultural output on its growth trajectory [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 369.57 billion RMB, 551.72 billion RMB, and 678.11 billion RMB for the years 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 123.76 billion RMB, 173.73 billion RMB, and 226.85 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 295.98%, 40.37%, and 30.58% respectively [4][7] - The target price is set at 359.72 HKD, based on a 25X PE for 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company has established a high self-sufficiency and synergistic integrated ecosystem in the electrolytic aluminum industry, focusing on green aluminum transformation and global market expansion, which enhances its risk resilience and performance stability [5]. - The company is positioned as the 12th largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China, with a production capacity of 788,100 tons per year, and is strategically located in Inner Mongolia [4][13]. - The global and domestic demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow, driven by sectors such as new energy vehicles and high-end manufacturing, with a projected increase in global demand from 74 million tons in 2025 to 77 million tons in 2028 [4][36]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 2012 in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, focusing on the production of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, gradually building an integrated industrial layout [13]. - The company has seen rapid growth in revenue and net profit, with revenues of 13.49 billion, 13.81 billion, and 15.16 billion RMB from 2022 to 2024, and net profits of 880 million, 1 billion, and 2.06 billion RMB respectively [19][24]. Electrolytic Aluminum Business - The domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained by a production cap of approximately 45 million tons per year, leading to a tight supply-demand balance [36]. - The company’s electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 788,100 tons per year, with a high capacity utilization rate of over 95% [49][58]. - The average selling price of electrolytic aluminum has fluctuated, with prices of 17,572, 16,174, and 17,120 RMB per ton from 2022 to 2024, while production costs have decreased significantly [60][66]. Alumina Business - The company has a current alumina production capacity of 1.2 million tons in Shandong, with plans to enhance its supply capabilities through the construction of a 1.5 million ton per year aluminum hydroxide production facility [76][81]. - The global alumina demand is projected to grow from 142 million tons in 2025 to 149 million tons in 2028, with China being the largest consumer [71]. Global Expansion and Green Transformation - The company is initiating a global strategy by planning to invest in a 500,000 tons per year electrolytic aluminum project in Saudi Arabia, targeting markets in the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe [4][5]. - The company is also constructing a large-scale wind and solar power station in Inner Mongolia to increase its green energy ratio, which is expected to significantly reduce carbon emissions associated with aluminum production [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express has a significant competitive advantage, primarily due to its leading market share, superior network management capabilities, brand premium, stronger stability among franchisees, and robust financial strength [3][14] - In the short to medium term, ZTO is expected to maintain its "quantity and quality" strategy, which, along with price increases and reduced low-cost packages, will optimize the demand structure in the express delivery industry, leading to a continuous increase in market share [3] - In the long term, as the competitive landscape stabilizes, ZTO is likely to develop a diversified service system, enhancing its profitability [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Development Review - The express delivery demand in China has transitioned from rapid growth to steady growth, with the volume expected to increase from 2.34 billion pieces in 2010 to 199 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.5% [1][34] - The competitive landscape has returned to rationality, with price competition being controlled within reasonable limits due to policies aimed at high-quality development [1][52] Company Development Review - ZTO Express has distinguished itself in the competitive landscape through innovative models and strategic foresight, becoming the first private express company to open inter-provincial network buses in 2005 and implementing a paid delivery model in 2007 [2] - The company has consistently led in investments in resources such as trunk vehicles and automation equipment, establishing a virtuous cycle of scale, cost, profit, and quality [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects ZTO Express's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 9.48 billion, 10.59 billion, and 11.78 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 11.7%, and 11.2% respectively [3][5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12X and 11X for 2026 and 2027, indicating that the stock is still at a low valuation level [3][6]