丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨裕元集团（00551.HK） [Table_Title] 制造产能爬坡形成拖累，关店及客流影响零售承 压 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 裕元集团 2025 年前三季度实现营收 60.2 亿美元，同比-1.0%，归母净利润 2.8 亿美元，同比- 16.0%。其中制造业务实现营收 42.3 亿美元，同比+2.3%，归母净利润 2.6 亿美元，同比-12.6%； 宝胜实现营收 17.9 亿美元，同比-7.9%，归母净利润 0.2 亿美元，同比-50.3%。 裕元集团 2025Q3 实现营收 19.6 亿美元，同比-5.0%，归母净利润 1.1 亿美元，同比-27.0%。 其中制造业务实现营收 14.3 亿美元，同比-4.5%，归母净利润 1.1 亿美元，同比-25.7%；宝胜 实现营收 5.2 亿美元，同比-6.3%，归母净利润-218.7 万美元，同比转亏。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 魏杏梓 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524020003 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company has launched a restricted stock incentive plan to enhance its long-term development confidence and align the interests of shareholders, the company, and management [1] - The company's performance has been strong, with a 31.3% year-on-year increase in revenue to 2.59 billion yuan and a 36.1% increase in net profit to 670 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company is focusing on high-end beauty positioning, expanding its product range into fragrances, and has seen significant growth in both online and offline channels [3] Summary by Sections Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, a 31.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% [2] - Sales on major platforms during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival showed strong growth, with year-on-year increases of 60.5% on Taobao, 39.8% on Douyin, and 22.3% on JD [2] Product and Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its high-end beauty positioning and has expanded its product categories to include fragrances, with successful product launches in various high-end department stores [3] - The product matrix has been enriched with new series such as Guo Yun Ning Xiang and Wen Dao Dong Fang [3] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 1.21 billion yuan, 1.58 billion yuan, and 2.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.46 yuan, 3.22 yuan, and 4.16 yuan [3][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 34, 26, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of 6-12% over the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the performance and IP licensing sectors, with a strong valuation proposition [5]. - The report highlights the company's robust revenue growth driven by its IP derivative business, which saw a 105% year-on-year increase [5]. - The company is focusing on international expansion and enhancing its IP business, aiming to increase revenue contributions from live entertainment and ticketing categories [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 5,040 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 43% [3]. - Adjusted net profit for FY2024 is expected to be 337 million, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [3]. - The company anticipates total revenues of 80.05 billion, 92.34 billion, and 117.28 billion for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively, with corresponding adjusted net profits of 10.49 billion, 15.14 billion, and 19.65 billion [5].

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 环保 2025 年 11 月 16 日 光大环境 (00257) ——拟发行不超 8 亿股回 A，助力长期价值提升 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 32,090 | 30,258 | 29,976 | 30,938 | 31,954 | | 同比增长率（%） | -14.02 | -5.71 | -0.93 | 3.21 | 3.28 | | 归属普通股东净利润 | 4,429 | 3,377 | 3,589 | 3,810 | 4,055 | | 同比增长率（%） | -3.75 | -23.75 | 6.26 | 6.17 | 6.43 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.72 | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0.62 | 0.66 | | ROE（%） | 9.20 | 7.01 | 7.12 | 7.23 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][19]. Core Views - The company reported 3Q25 results that exceeded guidance, with sales revenue of $635.2 million, a year-over-year increase of 20.7% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12.2%. The gross margin was 13.5%, up 1.3 percentage points year-over-year and 2.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The guidance for 4Q25 anticipates sales revenue of approximately $650-660 million and a gross margin of 12%-14% [1][3]. - The company’s capacity utilization rate improved, with a monthly capacity equivalent to 468 thousand 8-inch wafers, representing a year-over-year increase of 19.7% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.7%. The capacity utilization rate reached 109.5%, up 4.2 percentage points year-over-year and 1.2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1][2]. - Capital expenditures for 3Q25 were $261.9 million, with a focus on optimizing product structure to enhance average selling prices (ASP). The company is targeting the GaN field for power products and upgrading the Nor Flash process [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 3Q25 sales revenue was $635.2 million, with a gross margin of 13.5%. The company expects 4Q25 sales revenue to be around $650-660 million and gross margin to be 12%-14% [1][3]. - The company’s capital expenditures for 3Q25 totaled $261.9 million, with significant investments in manufacturing capacity [3][4]. Capacity and Utilization - The company’s monthly capacity equivalent to 8-inch wafers was 468 thousand, with a capacity utilization rate of 109.5% [1][2]. - The 12-inch capacity is steadily being released, contributing to revenue growth [1]. Market Demand - Demand for flash products is increasing, with significant growth in consumer electronics (QoQ +14.0%), communications (QoQ +11.5%), and computing (QoQ +25.6%) [2]. - The demand for analog and power management products remains strong, with a year-over-year increase of 34.1% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17.9% [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music [4][6]. Core Views - The growth of the fan economy is expected to accelerate, leading to an increase in the company's membership ARPPU due to the rising proportion of SVIP bundled packages [4]. - The projected net profits for the years 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 11.2 billion, 10.1 billion, and 11.4 billion CNY respectively, with adjustments made to previous forecasts based on financial report updates [4]. - A target price of 87.50 HKD (approximately 79.74 CNY) is set for 2026, based on a P/E ratio of 24 times [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, Tencent Music reported revenue of 8.463 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 21%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 2.8% [11]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 43.5%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by growth in music subscription and advertising service revenues [11]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 2.41 billion CNY, a 33% increase year-on-year, also surpassing Bloomberg's expectations by 3.7% [11]. - Online music revenue reached 6.97 billion CNY in Q3 2025, reflecting a 27% year-on-year growth, with membership revenue contributing 4.49 billion CNY, an 18% increase [11]. - The ARPPU for Q3 2025 was 11.9 CNY/month, a 12% increase year-on-year, with expectations for further growth in Q4 2025 [11]. Revenue Breakdown - Non-subscription revenue for Q3 2025 was 2.48 billion CNY, a significant 48% increase year-on-year, attributed to strong performance in concerts and innovative advertising formats [11]. - Social entertainment revenue for Q3 2025 was 1.49 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, but is expected to stabilize in Q4 2025 [11]. Future Projections - The report anticipates that the fan economy will continue to drive revenue growth, with expectations for Q4 2025 total revenue to reach approximately 8.45 billion CNY, maintaining high year-on-year growth [11]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 32.706 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.2% [14].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 8.241 billion for FY2026 H1, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, while the operating income was HKD 8.045 billion, down 3.1% year-on-year. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.6% year-on-year to HKD 1.146 billion, indicating improved profitability despite challenging market conditions [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 4.675 billion in the Chinese market for FY2026 H1, a decline of 6.0% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 41.0%, up 0.8 percentage points. Offline store revenue decreased by 12.3% to HKD 3.059 billion, while online sales increased by 13.6% to HKD 1.144 billion. The company reduced its store count by 327 during this period [2] - The overseas market generated revenue of HKD 2.161 billion from North America, a slight increase of 0.3%, and HKD 0.765 billion from Europe and other markets, up 4.3%. The overall gross margin for overseas markets was 39.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points [3] Profitability and Shareholder Returns - The company's gross margin and net margin for FY2026 H1 were 40.4% and 14.2%, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.9 and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The total sales and administrative expense ratio was 23.7% [3] - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 50.8% for FY2026 H1, continuing its trend of returning over 50% to shareholders [3] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for FY2026-2028 is HKD 2.32 billion, HKD 2.44 billion, and HKD 2.58 billion, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 8.5X, 8.0X, and 7.6X [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and maintained as "Increase" [6]. Core Insights - The company is leveraging its "3+3" strategy to strategically position itself in the AI data center and electric vehicle sectors, accelerating breakthroughs in optical modules, high-speed connectors, and liquid cooling technologies. The company is transforming the AI wave into sustainable profit growth momentum, making its profit outlook promising [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the third quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of $3,629 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.98%. The profit for the period was $105 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.88% [3]. Technological Advancements - The company showcased its capabilities at the OCP Global Summit 2025, focusing on high bandwidth and high power consumption challenges in AI and high-performance computing. Key highlights included the global leading 224G OSFP liquid cooling architecture and high架 OSFP connector system, which enhance energy efficiency and cabinet density [6]. - The company is transitioning from a connector manufacturer to a key enabler of AI infrastructure, promoting the construction of green and efficient data center ecosystems [6]. Market Expansion - The company is accelerating its entry into the Middle East charging market through its joint venture, Smart Mobility, which aims to establish a localized and intelligent charging infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. The company plans to commercialize its charging management platform in early 2026 [6]. Revenue Projections - The company expects its revenue to reach $4,915 million, $5,558 million, and $6,274 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at $177 million, $219 million, and $269 million [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - On November 14, 2025, the company announced a proposal to issue up to 800 million RMB shares, which would account for no more than 11.52% of the post-issue share capital. The net proceeds from this issuance are intended for business development, which may help offset the short-term dilution of EPS [2][4] - The company has potential for EPS growth due to remaining capacity to be deployed and the opening of Southeast Asian markets, particularly with recent developments in Indonesia's waste incineration policies [8] - The dividend payout ratio has room for improvement, and an increase in dividends could help mitigate the EPS dilution from the new share issuance. The current dividend payout ratio is relatively low compared to industry peers [8] Summary by Sections Event Description - The company plans to issue up to 800 million RMB shares, which represents 11.52% of the post-issue share capital. The board has approved this preliminary proposal, and the lead underwriter is authorized to exercise an over-allotment option of up to 15% of the proposed shares [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to face an 11.52% dilution pressure on EPS due to the new share issuance. However, the funds raised will be used for core business development and operational funding, which could lead to further EPS growth. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 3.7 billion HKD, 4.1 billion HKD, and 4.2 billion HKD, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.1x, 7.4x, and 7.1x [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili-W (09626) [2] Core Insights - Bilibili achieved a revenue of 7.69 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5%, which met expectations; the adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 790 million yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 22%, with a profit margin of 10.2%, continuing to improve quarter-on-quarter [5] - User engagement metrics reached historical highs, with MAU growing 8% year-on-year to 376 million and DAU increasing 9% to 117 million, indicating strong user stickiness [8] - Advertising revenue accelerated with a year-on-year growth rate of 23%, while game revenue declined by 17%, aligning with expectations due to a high base effect [8] - The company continues to optimize operational efficiency, with a gross margin of 36.7% and a 6% year-on-year reduction in absolute values of operating expenses [8] - The report highlights two upward potential drivers: community monetization through gaming and AI applications, which could enhance content ecosystem and advertising efficiency [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Bilibili are as follows: - 2023: 22.53 billion yuan - 2024: 26.83 billion yuan - 2025E: 30.21 billion yuan - 2026E: 33.30 billion yuan - 2027E: 36.16 billion yuan - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: -3.43 billion yuan - 2024: -0.02 billion yuan - 2025E: 2.57 billion yuan - 2026E: 3.02 billion yuan - 2027E: 4.05 billion yuan [7][9]