主品牌短期减速 中期看好公司多品牌国际 化的竞争力 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司公告的四季度运营数据以及运动服饰消费行业目前的形势，我们调整公司 盈利预测，同时结合公司股本变动，预计 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 4.71、5.09 和 5.70 元（原预测为 4.69、5.29 和 6.02 元）。参考可比公司，给予 2026 年 20 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 113.00 港币（1 人民币=1.11 港币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 消费终端复苏缓慢、运动服饰行业潮流变化及竞争加剧等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 62,356 | 70,826 | 78,495 | 85,296 | 92,805 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.2% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 15,367 | 16,595 | 18,116 | 19,321 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - Short-term negative sentiment may persist, but there is optimism about the long-term development trend of the brand globalization [3] - The performance of the two main brands, Anta and Fila, shows contrasting results in Q4 2025, with Anta experiencing a slight decline in retail revenue while Fila saw growth [1][2] - The company is expected to face pressure on profit margins in 2026, influenced by various factors including increased market investment and potential losses from acquisitions [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Anta's retail revenue in Q4 2025 recorded a year-on-year decline of less than 1%, primarily due to weak industry demand and warmer weather [1] - Fila's revenue in Q4 2025 grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year, accelerating compared to the previous quarter [1] - Other brands experienced a revenue growth of 35-40% in Q4 2025, with Descente growing by 25-30% and Kolon by 50-55% [1] Future Projections - The management aims for Anta's revenue to achieve positive growth in 2026, supported by adjustments in online operations and store renovations [2] - Fila's operational adjustments are expected to maintain its revenue growth momentum in 2026, while other brands are projected to sustain high double-digit growth, albeit at a slower pace than in 2025 [2] - The company plans to increase marketing investments in 2026, coinciding with major events like the Winter Olympics and Asian Games [2] Financial Estimates - The report maintains the revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 but has slightly lowered the net profit expectations for 2026 due to anticipated weaker profit margins [3] - The projected revenue for 2026 is RMB 88.553 billion, with a net profit forecast of RMB 14.361 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [10][16] - The company's profit margin is expected to face significant pressure in 2026 due to various factors, including potential losses from acquisitions [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears to be cautiously optimistic regarding long-term growth potential [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a low single-digit negative growth in retail sales for the Anta brand in Q4 2025, while the FILA brand achieved a mid-single-digit positive growth. Other brands experienced a retail sales growth of 35-40% in the same quarter [1][2]. - The company aims to enhance brand value and operational quality, focusing on different strategies for each brand in 2026. The core goal for the Anta brand is to reverse the decline and restore growth through professional category focus and channel upgrades [3][4]. - The company anticipates a challenging profit margin in 2026 due to increased investments in R&D, marketing, and product innovation, particularly as it integrates the Jack Wolfskin brand [4]. Summary by Sections Q4 and Full Year Performance - Anta brand recorded a low single-digit negative growth in Q4 2025, primarily affected by short-term factors such as the children's line and consumer confidence. The FILA brand showed resilience with mid-single-digit growth [2]. - The professional outdoor lines, including DESCENTE and KOLON SPORT, demonstrated significant growth, with DESCENTE achieving approximately 25-30% growth in Q4 and nearly 40% for the full year [2]. Profitability and Financial Guidance - The company expects to maintain its profit margin guidance for 2025, with targets of 20-25% for Anta, around 25% for FILA, and 25-30% for other brands [3]. - The projected net profit for the fiscal years 2025-2027 is estimated at 131.97 billion, 142.43 billion, and 156.54 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.71X, 14.55X, and 13.24X [5][6]. 2026 Outlook - The company plans to increase investments in brand building and operational quality, with a focus on different strategies for each brand. The Anta brand will focus on reversing its decline, while FILA will maintain its momentum through new product launches [3][4]. - The integration of Jack Wolfskin is expected to result in higher losses in 2026, reflecting a strategic long-term investment approach [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][6]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading diversified copper producer under China Minmetals, with a goal to achieve a copper production target of over 1 million tons by 2030 [5][22]. - The Las Bambas copper mine is identified as a "global resource flagship," with the "Heart of Bambas" strategy expected to stabilize its cash flow [6][49]. - The company anticipates significant growth from the Khoemacau copper mine in Botswana and the expansion of the Kinsevere copper mine, contributing to a positive outlook for the copper segment [6][49]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates as the core international mining platform of China Minmetals, focusing on a diversified portfolio of copper and zinc assets, with operations in Australia, South America, Africa, and North America [5][14]. - The company aims to leverage its expertise in both Chinese and international markets to diversify resources and products [17]. Key Assets - Las Bambas Copper Mine: Holds a 62.5% stake, with a production capacity ranking among the top ten globally. The mine has faced community issues affecting output but is expected to stabilize with the new community management strategy [5][6]. - Kinsevere Copper Mine: Fully owned, transitioning from high-grade oxide to sulfide mining, with an expansion project expected to extend its operational life to 2035 [5][6]. - Khoemacau Copper Mine: A significant long-life copper mine in Botswana, with plans to increase production capacity from 50,000 tons to 130,000 tons by 2028/2029 [5][6]. - Australian Zinc Mines: The Dugald River and Rosebery mines provide stable cash flow, with significant EBITDA growth expected in 2024 [5][6]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of $4.48 billion in 2024, growing to $7.91 billion by 2027, with net profits projected to rise from $162 million in 2024 to $1.17 billion in 2027 [7][6]. - The expected P/E ratio for 2026 is 14.2, indicating a favorable valuation compared to projected earnings growth [6][7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing acquisitions, including a proposed purchase of Brazilian nickel assets, which would enhance its portfolio and diversify its metal exposure [6][52]. - The strategic focus includes optimizing the asset portfolio and enhancing financial flexibility to support growth initiatives [6][53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price over the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The retail performance of the company remains relatively stable, with the Anta brand experiencing a slight decline in retail sales, while the FILA brand shows improvement. Other brands continue to grow at a high rate [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 10.9% in 2025, 10.2% in 2026, and 9.1% in 2027, reaching revenues of 785.7 billion, 865.5 billion, and 944.2 billion respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decline by 14.1% in 2025, followed by increases of 12.5% and 11.6% in the subsequent years [3]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Anta brand retail sales decreased by low single digits year-on-year in Q4 2025, while FILA brand sales increased by mid single digits. Other brands saw retail sales growth of 35-40% [2][3]. - The company has been adjusting its franchise stores and successfully expanding various store formats, with the opening of a new store in Los Angeles planned for January 2026 [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 62,356 million, with projections of 70,826 million for 2024, 78,566 million for 2025, and continuing growth through 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 10,236 million in 2023, increasing to 15,596 million in 2024, but declining to 13,402 million in 2025 before recovering in subsequent years [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.33 in 2025, decreasing to 12.21 by 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [4]. - The net asset return rate is expected to decline from 25.27% in 2024 to 15.76% in 2027, reflecting changes in profitability [4].

车床领先企业，积极布局 AI 液冷及人形机器人领域 津上机床中国(1651) 津上机床中国（1651.HK）首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 刘绮雯(分析师) | 021-23185686 | liuqiwen@gtht.com | S0880525040096 | 本报告导读： 精密机床领先企业，业绩快速增长，积极布局 AI 液冷、人形机器人等新兴领域。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万港元) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 3,119.67 | 4,261.56 | 5,182.26 | 5,823.27 | 6,562.20 | | (+/-)% | -22.9% | 36.6% | 21.6% | 12.4% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning Company [6] Core Views - The signing of the Chinese Olympic Committee in the first half of 2025 marks the beginning of a new product and marketing cycle for Li Ning, with potential for brand strength recovery and performance improvement [1][14] - Despite short-term pressures from fluctuating consumer environments, the company is positioned for a potential upward trend in stock price if revenue or profit improves in the medium to long term [1][4] Company Overview - Li Ning's revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 are projected at 14.8 billion and 1.7 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of +3.3% and -11% [1][15] - The company has faced challenges since 2022, with a decline in brand revenue in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 [1][15] - The current channel structure is primarily wholesale, with revenue contributions of 46% from wholesale, 23% from direct sales, and 29% from e-commerce as of the first half of 2025 [15] Industry Trends - The demand for sports footwear and apparel among residents is resilient, with a projected market size of 260.2 billion yuan by 2024 and a CAGR of 9% from 2025 to 2029 [2] - The diversification and specialization of sports participation are becoming more pronounced, with increased demand for professional products driven by rising participation in running and social sports [2] Competitive Strength - The Olympic cycle is expected to enhance Li Ning's brand power and strengthen sponsorship in niche categories [2][3] - The company is focusing on professional running shoes and outdoor products, which are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [3][4] Product Insights - In the first half of 2025, the revenue breakdown by category is as follows: running (34%), basketball (17%), training (16%), and sports lifestyle (29%), with running and training categories showing a growth of 15% each [3][15] - Li Ning is emphasizing the development of running shoes and enhancing the technological attributes of its training series [3] Channel Insights - As of the first half of 2025, Li Ning operates 4,821 franchise stores and 1,278 direct stores, with plans to open new store types focusing on Olympic and outdoor series products [3] - E-commerce revenue grew by 7% year-on-year to 4.3 billion yuan, accounting for 29% of total revenue, indicating a stable growth strategy in this channel [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The projected net profits for Li Ning from 2025 to 2027 are 2.742 billion, 2.901 billion, and 3.302 billion yuan, with growth rates of -9%, +5.8%, and +13.8%, respectively [4][5] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 17 times for 2026, suggesting potential for valuation improvement as the company's Olympic marketing strategy and product optimization continue [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 113.00 HKD for 2026, based on a 20x PE valuation [3][5]. Core Insights - The main brand of the company is experiencing short-term revenue pressure, but the mid-term outlook remains positive due to the company's multi-brand internationalization strategy [2][9]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting earnings per share of 4.71, 5.09, and 5.70 RMB respectively, slightly down from previous estimates [3][10]. - The company is expected to face challenges in the competitive landscape of the mass sports sector, but new store formats and product iterations are anticipated to support stable growth in the mid-term [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 62,356 in 2023 to 92,805 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates decreasing from 16.2% in 2023 to 8.8% in 2027 [4]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 15,367 million RMB in 2023 to 21,369 million RMB in 2027, with a growth rate of 36.8% in 2023, tapering to 10.6% by 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 10,236 million RMB in 2023 to 15,931 million RMB in 2027, with a significant increase of 52.4% in 2024, followed by a decline of 15.5% in 2025 [4]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable around 62% over the forecast period, while net margin is projected to fluctuate between 16.4% and 22.0% [4][12]. Brand Performance Insights - The main brand is under pressure in the short term, but is expected to stabilize in the mid-term due to improvements in e-commerce and new store formats [9]. - The Fila brand showed improvement in Q4 and is expected to maintain steady growth starting in 2026 due to recent brand and product optimizations [9]. - Other brands, particularly Descente and KOLON, have shown strong growth, with revenue increasing by 35%-40% year-on-year in Q4, and are expected to continue outperforming the overall sportswear industry [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company has announced a share buyback plan, spending HKD 251 million to repurchase 1.4 million shares at a price range of HKD 177.7-181.2 per share [1] - The domestic market is experiencing upward momentum, with a large and sticky user base, and a diversified IP matrix maintaining its popularity [2] - The company is actively adjusting its supply and production to balance the market, reclaiming pricing power and fostering a healthy commercial ecosystem based on real consumer demand [2] - The overseas market presents significant potential, with many global markets still in their early stages and a strong certainty for future channel expansion [2] - The company is focusing on resolving supply chain and logistics issues before prioritizing IP product layout for long-term overseas development [2] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be CNY 135.1 billion, CNY 179.0 billion, and CNY 216.1 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.0X, 13.6X, and 11.3X [3] - Key financial indicators show a significant increase in revenue, with expected revenues of CNY 38.891 billion in 2025, CNY 50.835 billion in 2026, and CNY 61.142 billion in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 198%, 31%, and 20% respectively [5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from CNY 10.07 in 2025 to CNY 16.11 in 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that CK Hutchison Holdings is in discussions with Liberty Global to sell its Irish telecommunications business for €1.5 billion, which may indicate a strategic move to exit a challenging telecommunications sector [4]. - Key catalysts for the company include asset disposals, large-scale share buybacks, and increased dividends [5]. - The company operates in various sectors including telecommunications, retail, infrastructure, and ports, with a workforce of over 300,000 employees across approximately 50 countries [7]. Company Overview - CK Hutchison Holdings is a diversified global enterprise with operations in telecommunications, retail, infrastructure, ports, and related services [7]. - The company is currently negotiating the sale of its 3 Ireland business, which had 4.94 million active customers and generated total revenue of €630 million in 2024, contributing 0.6% to the group's underlying EBIT [8]. - The average revenue per user (ARPU) for 3 Ireland was €7.78 in 2024, reflecting a 10% year-over-year decline [8]. Financial Information - As of January 19, 2026, the stock price was HKD 60.2, with a market capitalization of USD 28.07 billion [9]. - The market consensus target price is HKD 61.02 [9]. - Major shareholder includes Li Ka-shing with a 30.43% stake [9].