上 市 公 司 房地产 2025 年 08 月 24 日 绿城中国 (03900) ——历史业绩承压，未来活力显现，理顺机制再出发 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 10.70 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9079.93 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 13.78/0.00 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 271.74 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 2,539.60 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0955 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -4% 46% 96% 146% HSCEI 绿城中国 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 (8621)23297818× caoman@swsresearch.com 财务数据及盈利预测 投资要点： ⚫ 风险提示：房地产政策超预期收紧 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the revenue growth guidance for the year from 12%-15% to 14%-16% based on the strong performance in the first half of 2025 [5] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 9.953 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.1%. The gross profit reached 4.253 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 42.7%, up by 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The growth was primarily driven by overseas markets, with North American revenue increasing by 20.1% to 6.018 billion yuan, while revenue from European clients grew by 5.7% to 1.969 billion yuan. However, revenue from Chinese clients declined by 8.5% to 1.297 billion yuan [2][3] - The company signed a record 86 new projects in H1 2025, including 9 "winning molecule" projects, indicating a robust project and order reserve [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.339 billion yuan, a significant increase of 56.0% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 2.840 billion yuan, up by 11.6% [1] - The company expects to complete 25 PPQ projects in 2025, contributing to a strong growth foundation [4][5] - The financial projections for 2025-2027 indicate revenues of 21.503 billion yuan, 24.572 billion yuan, and 27.580 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 4.405 billion yuan, 5.082 billion yuan, and 5.756 billion yuan [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6][16] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was HKD 14.304 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.207 billion, down 10% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [6][4] - The decline in performance was primarily due to a drop in construction revenue, increased administrative expenses, and higher impairment losses in hazardous waste [6][4] - The revenue structure continues to improve, with operational and financial income accounting for 87% of total revenue, and gross margin increasing from 39% in H1 2024 to 44% in H1 2025 [6][4] - Financial expenses have decreased, with further reduction potential due to lower financing costs and improved cash flow [6][4] - The company expects cash flow to improve, announcing an interim dividend of HKD 0.15 per share, with a payout ratio of 42%, reflecting a 7 percentage point increase year-on-year [6][4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is HKD 3.589 billion, HKD 3.810 billion, and HKD 4.055 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.3, 6.9, and 6.5 [6][4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (in million HKD) for 2023 is projected at 32,090, decreasing to 29,976 in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.9% [3][7] - Net profit (in million HKD) for 2023 is projected at 4,429, with a forecast of 3,589 in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 6.3% [3][7] - Earnings per share (in HKD) are expected to rise from 0.55 in 2024 to 0.58 in 2025E [3][7] - The company's market capitalization is approximately HKD 26.292 billion, with a closing price of HKD 4.28 [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Buy" [1] Core Views - TCL Electronics reported a significant increase in adjusted net profit for H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 62% [2] - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 54.78 billion, reflecting a 20.4% increase year-on-year [2] - The adjusted net profit reached HKD 10.6 billion, marking a 62% increase compared to the previous year [2] Business Performance Summary - **Display Business**: Revenue from the large-size display segment was HKD 33.41 billion, up 10.9% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.6% [3] - Large-size display revenue was HKD 28.35 billion, a 9.4% increase, with a gross margin of 15.9% [3] - Mini LED TV shipments increased by 176.1% year-on-year [3] - In the Chinese market, TCL TV shipments rose by 3.5%, with a revenue increase of 4.4% to HKD 8.72 billion [3] - Internationally, TCL TV shipments grew by 8.7%, with revenue up 11.8% to HKD 19.632 billion [3] - **Internet Business**: Revenue reached HKD 1.46 billion, a 20.3% increase, with overseas revenue growing by 46.3% [3] - The gross margin for the internet business improved to 54.4% [3] - **Innovative Business**: Revenue from innovative segments was HKD 19.88 billion, a 42.4% increase, with solar business revenue soaring by 111.3% to HKD 11.14 billion [4] - Smart home and connectivity business revenue reached HKD 0.9 billion, with a gross margin of 23.6% [4] Profitability and Cost Control - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 15.3%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company maintained good control over expenses, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 7.3%, 4.2%, and 2.1% respectively [5] - The net profit margin improved to 2.0%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [5] Brand and R&D Strategy - TCL is enhancing its global brand presence and increasing R&D investments to drive technological innovation and improve core brand competitiveness [6] - The company is focusing on high-end market strategies and leveraging new media marketing to boost brand visibility [6] Financial Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to HKD 117.14 billion, HKD 132.94 billion, and HKD 149.22 billion respectively [8] - The expected net profit for the same period is projected at HKD 2.35 billion, HKD 2.82 billion, and HKD 3.23 billion respectively [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be HKD 0.93, HKD 1.12, and HKD 1.28 for 2025-2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" for Crystal International, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the relevant market benchmark [20]. Core Insights - Crystal International reported solid revenue and profit growth, achieving revenue of USD 1.229 billion in 1H25, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%. The gross profit reached USD 243 million, up 19.7% YoY, with a gross margin of 19.8% [2][8]. - The company is experiencing strong order inflow and high production line utilization, primarily driven by deeper penetration into core brand customers, including a 20% YoY increase in orders from its largest customer, Uniqlo [3][9]. - Management anticipates a revenue growth of approximately 10% for the full year 2025, with profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth [5][12]. Revenue and Profit Performance - In 1H25, revenue by product category showed growth rates of +11.4% for casual wear, +12.4% for sports and outdoor wear, +10.3% for denim, +9.5% for lingerie, and +29.2% for sweaters, with sweaters showing the most significant growth [2][8]. - By region, revenue growth was +14.5% in Asia Pacific, +11.7% in North America, +9.7% in Europe, and +14.9% in other regions, contributing 39%, 38%, 21%, and 3% of total revenue, respectively [2][8]. Cash Flow and Dividends - Operating cash flow for 1H25 was USD 155 million, with a net cash position of USD 517 million at the end of the period, supporting high dividends and expansion [2][8]. - An interim dividend of HKD 0.163 per share was announced for 2025, higher than HKD 0.138 in 2024, maintaining a payout ratio of 60% [2][8]. Capacity and Production Strategy - The company is diversifying its capacity layout, with ongoing expansions in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Bangladesh, and is evaluating a new plant in Egypt to reduce transportation cycles and tariff risks [5][11]. - The implementation of a "satellite factory" model in Vietnam aims to ease labor competition and improve employee retention, with positive feedback received so far [5][11]. Long-term Growth Strategy - Crystal International's long-term strategy focuses on solid fundamentals, including product quality, delivery speed, and customer service, while enhancing competitiveness through multi-category synergy and vertical integration [5][12]. - The company aims to achieve around 60% of export fabric supply to be self-produced within five years, indicating a clear path for long-term growth [5][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant sales growth in the first half of 2025, with a total revenue of 950 million yuan, although this represents a year-on-year decline of 31.27%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -145 million yuan, a decrease of 146.80% year-on-year. However, cash and cash equivalents increased by 45.68% year-on-year to 3.103 billion yuan [4][5] - The commercialization of the first batch of products is on track, with the core product, Lukanosatuzumab, achieving sales of 310 million yuan in the first half of the year. This product is the first domestically approved ADC with global intellectual property rights in China, marking a significant milestone for the company [6][8] - The company has multiple new ADCs entering clinical trials, indicating a robust pipeline and potential for future growth. The expected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 2.033 billion yuan, 3.147 billion yuan, and 2.833 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 55%, and -10% [7][8] Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 950 million yuan, a net profit of -145 million yuan, and cash and cash equivalents of 3.103 billion yuan [4][5] - The projected financials for 2024 to 2027 include revenues of 1.933 billion yuan, 2.033 billion yuan, 3.147 billion yuan, and 2.833 billion yuan, with net profits of -267 million yuan, -375 million yuan, 46 million yuan, and -171 million yuan, respectively [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.35 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24%, driven primarily by AI services, slightly exceeding expectations [5] - The adjusted net loss for the same period was 300 million yuan, corresponding to a loss rate of 13% [5] - The company expects revenue growth to accelerate in the second half of the year [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 7,047 million yuan - 2024: 7,785 million yuan - 2025E: 9,409 million yuan - 2026E: 11,050 million yuan - 2027E: 12,491 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at: - 2023: -14% - 2024: 10% - 2025: 21% - 2026: 17% - 2027: 13% [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: -1,291 million yuan - 2024: -825 million yuan - 2025E: -1,072 million yuan - 2026E: -841 million yuan - 2027E: -338 million yuan [7] Business Analysis - AI is identified as the core growth driver, with public cloud service revenue reaching 1.63 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 32% [8] - AI revenue specifically was 730 million yuan, growing over 120% year-on-year, accounting for 45% of public cloud service revenue [8] - Revenue from the partnership with Kingsoft and Xiaomi reached 630 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.5%, now representing 27% of total revenue [8] - The adjustment in computing power investment methods has led to a short-term decline in profit margins, with an adjusted gross margin of 15% in Q2 2025 [8] - The company has a strong cash reserve of 5.52 billion yuan as of the end of June, supporting further investments in AI [8] - Future growth is expected to be driven by AI and the synergistic effects of the Kingsoft and Xiaomi ecosystem [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, primarily due to uneven delivery schedules and substantial asset impairment losses [7][10]. - Despite the short-term pressure on performance, the company has shown notable improvements in operational margins, sales rankings, and financial stability, indicating a potential recovery in the future [7][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025H, the company achieved revenue of 53.368 billion (down 23.3%) and a net profit of 210 million (down 89.7%), largely impacted by uneven delivery schedules and a significant asset impairment loss of 1.933 billion [7][10]. - The gross margin was 13.4%, slightly up from 13.1% year-on-year, but still at a low level [10]. - The company recorded a total sales amount of 122.2 billion (including entrusted construction), with self-invested sales amounting to 80.3 billion (down 6%), outperforming the industry average decline of 11% [10]. Sales and Market Position - The company improved its sales ranking to fifth in the industry, with new sales value ranking third [10]. - The average self-invested sales price was 34,984 per square meter, maintaining a high level [10]. - The company acquired 35 new projects in the first half of the year, with a total equity land acquisition amount of approximately 36.2 billion [10]. Financial Health - The average financing cost decreased to 3.60%, down 40 basis points from the previous year, indicating improved financial conditions [10]. - The debt structure has been optimized, with short-term debt accounting for 16.3%, the lowest in history [10]. - The company maintains a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.7, indicating a strong financial position [10]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 1 billion, 1.9 billion, and 4.2 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of -36%, +88%, and +118% [10]. - The overall performance is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, but operational improvements and brand influence are anticipated to gradually manifest [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 5.34 [5][9]. Core Views - The company reported a decrease in revenue by 8.4% year-on-year to HKD 14.304 billion for H1 2025, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 2.207 billion, down 10.1% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company has shown operational resilience with a 9% increase in electricity generation and a 32% increase in heating supply for H1 2025 [1]. - The interim dividend has been increased to HKD 0.15 per share, up from HKD 0.14 per share in H1 2024, reflecting a stable growth in shareholder returns [3][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 14.304 billion in H1 2025, a decrease of 8.4% year-on-year, while the net profit was HKD 2.207 billion, down 10.1% year-on-year [1]. - The interim dividend payout was HKD 0.15 per share, with a dividend payout ratio of 41.8%, compared to 35.0% in H1 2024 [1][3]. Operational Highlights - The company processed nearly 29 million tons of waste, a 2% increase year-on-year, and generated 14.8 billion kWh of electricity, a 9% increase year-on-year [1]. - The heating supply increased by 32% year-on-year, indicating strong operational performance [1]. Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding into Central Asia with two new waste-to-energy projects in Uzbekistan, with a total investment of approximately RMB 2.2 billion [2]. - It has also secured equipment supply contracts in Thailand and Malaysia, indicating a strategic move towards international markets [2]. Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - The company reported a free cash flow of RMB 4.04 billion for 2024, marking the first positive cash flow since its inception in 2003 [3]. - The stable cash flow and improved free cash flow position the company well for future shareholder returns [3]. Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 3.392 billion for 2025, with a slight downward adjustment of 3% from previous estimates [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is HKD 0.55, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 9.7 times [4][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for WuXi AppTec (02268.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit. The revenue for H1 2025 reached 2.701 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 62.2%. The adjusted net profit (excluding interest income and expenses) was 733 million yuan, up 69.6% year-on-year [7] - The company has a strong order backlog, with total unfulfilled orders amounting to 1.329 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.9%. The North American region accounts for more than half of the unfulfilled orders, with new contract amounts growing by 48.4% [7] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with significant capital expenditures planned, including 1.56 billion yuan in 2025 and over 7 billion yuan by 2029. This expansion aims to support future growth and meet increasing demand [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4.052 billion yuan in 2024 to 10.305 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.68% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1.070 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.758 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to rise from 1.174 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.908 billion yuan in 2027, indicating robust operational performance [1] Market Position - The company's market share is expected to increase to 22.2% by H1 2025, driven by a growing customer base and expanding project pipeline [7] - The company has established a strong presence in the North American market, which is anticipated to continue outpacing growth in other regions [7] Capital Expenditure - The company plans to invest significantly in capital expenditures, with 15.6 billion yuan expected in 2025 to enhance domestic and international production capacity [7] - New production facilities are set to come online, including a new park in Singapore expected to achieve GMP certification by 2026 [7]