港股公司报告 | 公司点评 华润建材科技（01313） 证券研究报告 优质资产或被显著低估，维持"买入"评级 25 年水泥涨价盈利弹性可期，优质资产或被显著低估 公司 24 年全年实现归母净利润 2.11 亿元，同比下降 67.25% 公司发布 24 年年报，全年实现收入/归母净利润 230.38/2.11 亿元，同比 -10.47%/-67.25%，实现扣非归母净利润 2.11 亿元，同比-36.73%。其中 Q4 单季度实现收入 70.4 亿元，同比-16.4%，归母净利润-0.98 亿元，同比增 亏，扣非归母净利润-0.98 亿元，同比减亏。24 年公司共计提减值 5 亿元， 其中商誉/固定资产/存货减值分别计提 2.68/1.59/0.66 亿元。 水泥主业量价有所下滑，25 年水泥涨价盈利弹性可期 24 年公司水泥熟料收入 1.5 亿元，同比下降 20%，销量同比-11%达 6171 万吨，测算吨均价同比下滑 29 元（-11%）达 244 元，吨成本同比下降 33 元（-14%）达 207 元，主要受煤炭采购价格同比降低 14%影响，吨毛利同 比提升 4 元（+13%）达 37 元。Q4 水泥价格 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating with a total score of 69 out of 100 [3][14]. Core Insights - The company has a promising pipeline with products that, if approved, could meet significant demand in the Chinese market, particularly for conditions like Pediatric Growth Hormone Deficiency (PGHD) and Hypoparathyroidism [2][8][10]. - The company is positioned as the first endocrine drug manufacturer in the Hong Kong market, which may provide a competitive edge [14]. Industry Outlook - PGHD is prevalent among children under 18, accounting for 41.5% of short stature cases in China, with only 5.3% treatment rate in 2023, indicating a substantial unmet need [2]. - The market for achondroplasia treatment is currently limited, with only two products in clinical trials, suggesting a strong first-mover advantage for the company's product, Navepegritide [6]. - The demand for drugs treating Hypoparathyroidism is expected to grow, with the patient population projected to increase from 410,100 in 2023 to 495,600 by 2030 [7]. Company Operations - The company has not yet launched any products, resulting in no sales revenue. The net loss for shareholders in 2023 was approximately 250 million RMB, a 13.5% reduction year-on-year [8]. - Research and development costs have decreased significantly, contributing to the reduced net loss, while cash flow from operating activities remains healthy with no bank loans [8]. - The company has a robust pipeline with core products already approved in Europe and the U.S., with expectations for approval in China by 2025 [5][10]. Valuation Level - The company's valuation is considered reasonable, with a market capitalization range of 77.0 to 84.6 billion HKD, slightly lower than comparable companies in the biotech sector [10][12]. - The price-to-book ratio for the company's IPO price is estimated at 18.3 to 20.2 times, which is competitive compared to peers [10]. Market Sentiment - The recent market atmosphere has improved, with a higher percentage of newly listed companies experiencing price increases on their debut [13]. - The presence of notable cornerstone investors, such as WuXi Biologics, indicates confidence in the company's research capabilities [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company achieved a significant improvement in profitability in 2024, with total revenue reaching USD 10.259 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, driven by strong global parcel volume growth [8] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to USD 778 million, reflecting a substantial increase of 430.5%, indicating enhanced profitability [8] - The company turned a profit with a net income of USD 114 million in 2024, compared to a loss of USD 1.156 billion in 2023 [8] - The report highlights the continued improvement in domestic business profitability and the ongoing increase in overseas market share [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 63.056 billion in 2023 to RMB 109.376 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13% [7] - The adjusted EBITDA is expected to improve significantly from a loss of RMB 4.107 billion in 2023 to a profit of RMB 11.567 billion by 2027 [7] - The net profit is forecasted to increase from a loss of RMB 7.845 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.341 billion by 2027, representing a growth rate of 240.1% in 2025 [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from a loss of RMB 0.88 in 2023 to RMB 0.71 by 2027 [7] Market and Operational Insights - The company’s global parcel volume reached 24.65 billion pieces in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 31.0% [8] - The Southeast Asia market remains a core area, with parcel volume reaching 4.56 billion pieces and a market share increase to 28.6% [8] - In China, parcel volume reached 19.8 billion pieces, with a market share of 11.3%, ranking sixth in the industry [8] - The company has made strategic price adjustments to expand its market share in Southeast Asia, which has slightly impacted single-ticket revenue but has improved cost efficiency [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 82.62 HKD based on a 2025 PE of 25X [2][9]. Core Insights - Miu Miu's retail revenue grew by 93% in 2024, with EBIT margin reaching a 10-year high. Overall revenue increased by 14.9% YoY to 5.43 billion Euros, while net profit rose by 25% YoY to 839 million Euros [2][9]. - The company is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, with net profit forecasts of 972 million Euros, 1.088 billion Euros, and 1.191 billion Euros for 2025-2027, representing growth rates of 15.9%, 11.9%, and 9.5% respectively [2][9]. Financial Data and Forecasts - Key financial metrics for the company include: - Revenue (million Euros): 2023: 4726, 2024: 5432, 2025E: 6059, 2026E: 6646, 2027E: 7207 [2][6]. - Net Profit (million Euros): 2023: 671, 2024: 839, 2025E: 972, 2026E: 1088, 2027E: 1191 [2][6]. - Gross Margin (%): 2024: 79.84%, 2025E: 79.80%, 2026E: 79.90%, 2027E: 80.00% [2][6]. - Return on Equity (%): 2024: 19.07%, 2025E: 19.84%, 2026E: 19.93%, 2027E: 19.63% [2][6]. Retail Performance and Strategy - The retail network optimization is evident, with a slight decrease in the number of direct stores to 609, and a net opening of 3 stores. The company plans to continue retail investments and expand Miu Miu into new markets [2][9]. - Retail revenue growth in 2024 was notable across regions, with Asia-Pacific, Europe, Americas, Japan, and the Middle East showing growth rates of 13%, 18%, 9%, 46%, and 26% YoY respectively [2][9]. Management Changes - Miu Miu appointed Silvia Onofri as the new CEO, who has extensive experience in the luxury sector, previously holding positions at Bulgari and Bally [2][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [5][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's gross profit margin remains robust at 60.2% for Q4, with expectations for revenue growth to improve in Q1 2025 [7][14]. - The company has announced a buyback plan, reflecting long-term confidence in its performance [2][14]. - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 2.5% to USD 3.59 billion, with a slight recovery expected in 2025 [7][14]. Financial Data and Forecasts - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: USD 3,682 million - 2024: USD 3,589 million - 2025E: USD 3,743 million - 2026E: USD 3,928 million - 2027E: USD 4,118 million - Year-over-year growth rates show a decline of 2.5% in 2024, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [4][11]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: USD 417 million - 2024: USD 346 million - 2025E: USD 382 million - 2026E: USD 413 million - 2027E: USD 440 million - The net profit margin is expected to recover gradually after a decline in 2024 [4][11]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: USD 0.29 - 2024: USD 0.24 - 2025E: USD 0.26 - 2026E: USD 0.28 - 2027E: USD 0.30 [4][11]. - **Gross Margin**: - 2023: 59.3% - 2024: 60.0% - 2025E: 60.0% - 2026E: 60.1% - 2027E: 60.2% [4][11]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023: 28.8% - 2024: 23.4% - 2025E: 20.6% - 2026E: 18.2% - 2027E: 16.2% [4][11]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at HKD 19.10, with a 52-week price range of HKD 16.78 to HKD 31.60 [5][14]. - The total market capitalization is approximately HKD 27,930 million [5][14]. Revenue Performance by Region - Q4 2024 revenue showed a slight decline of 0.1% year-over-year, with a currency-neutral increase of 1% [7][14]. - Revenue changes in Q4 2024 by region were as follows: - Asia: -6.3% - North America: +3.9% - Europe: +5.6% - Latin America: +14% [7][14]. Cash Flow and Dividends - Adjusted free cash flow increased by 9.3% to USD 310 million [7][14]. - Total dividends for the year were USD 150 million, with a payout ratio of 43.4% [7][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Haitian International [2] Core Views - Haitian International achieved a revenue of RMB 16.13 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, with a net profit of RMB 3.08 billion, up 23.6% year-on-year [3][11] - The company is focused on enhancing its global market share through multi-dimensional market strategies and active globalization efforts [5][14] - The target price is set at HKD 26.3, with a projected P/E ratio of 12 for 2025 [5][15] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company reported a gross margin of 32.5% for 2024, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous year, driven by lower raw material prices and improved economies of scale [3][11] - In the second half of 2024, revenue reached RMB 8.11 billion, a 21.2% increase year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.56 billion, up 26.4% year-on-year [3][11] Regional Performance - Domestic revenue for 2024 was RMB 10.11 billion, a 27.7% increase year-on-year, while overseas revenue was RMB 6.02 billion, up 16.8% year-on-year [4][12] - The company experienced significant growth in the Mars and Zhafir series of injection molding machines, benefiting from demand recovery in consumer goods and home appliances [4][13] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue benefiting from the recovery of global manufacturing and domestic consumption demand, aiming to expand into both mature and emerging markets [5][14] - Factories in Japan and Serbia are expected to be completed in 2025, enhancing the localization of the supply chain [5][14] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2025 is RMB 17.1 billion, with a net profit of RMB 3.24 billion, and for 2026, revenue is projected at RMB 15.8 billion with a net profit of RMB 2.88 billion [5][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Tower (0788.HK) [3]. Core Views - The company's performance is driven by its "One Body, Two Wings" strategy, leading to steady growth and an increased focus on shareholder returns through a higher dividend payout ratio [1]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 97.772 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with a net profit of RMB 10.729 billion, reflecting a 10% growth [1]. - The EBITDA for 2024 reached RMB 66.559 billion, up 4.7%, with an EBITDA margin of 68.1% [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The operator business generated revenue of RMB 84.119 billion, growing by 2.4%, while the two wings business saw revenue of RMB 13.388 billion, up 16.4% [1]. - The company achieved a significant improvement in cash flow, with operating cash flow of RMB 49.468 billion, a year-on-year increase of RMB 16.628 billion [1]. Operator Business - The tower business revenue was RMB 75.689 billion, a 0.9% increase, with the number of tower sites increasing to 2.094 million [1]. - The indoor distribution business revenue reached RMB 8.430 billion, growing by 18.1%, with significant expansions in coverage areas [1]. Two Wings Business - The smart connection business generated RMB 8.911 billion, a 22.4% increase, focusing on sectors like emergency services and agriculture [1]. - The energy business revenue was RMB 4.477 billion, up 6.2%, while the battery swap business revenue reached RMB 2.5 billion, growing by 20.9% [1]. Shareholder Returns - The company increased its dividend payout ratio, distributing a total dividend of RMB 0.41696 per share for 2024, an 11.5% increase from 2023 [1]. - The depreciation and amortization as a percentage of revenue decreased from 52.2% in 2023 to 51.4% in 2024, indicating effective investment management [1]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted downwards by 10% and 14% to RMB 11.726 billion and RMB 18.123 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at RMB 19.2 billion [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential for significant profit growth in 2026 due to the expiration of certain tower depreciations [1].

服装家纺 多元化布局打造强客户粘性，开拓运动赛道成长性提升 ——晶苑国际深度报告 晶苑国际（02232.HK） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2025 年 03 月 18 日 | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2022A | | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师：张潇 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 17,499 | | 15,651 | 17,593 | 19,569 | 21,635 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | | 16% | -11% | 12% | 11% | 11% | | 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | 1,203 | 1,158 | 1,412 | 1,682 | 1,946 | | Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | | 16% | -4% | 22% | 19% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to HKD 9.1, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of HKD 7.63 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company focuses on high-quality revenue growth, strategically emphasizing high-end camera module projects, which is expected to lead to significant profit improvements in the second half of 2024 [7]. - The fundamental growth trend is anticipated to continue into 2025, driven by a doubling of shipments for mobile periscope modules, rapid growth in ultrasonic fingerprint recognition modules, and ongoing expansion in automotive and drone sectors [7]. - The company has shown strong performance in controlling expenses, resulting in a net profit increase of 168% year-on-year for 2024 [7]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 12,531 million in 2023 to RMB 20,974 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8% [2]. - Net profit is expected to rise significantly from RMB 82 million in 2023 to RMB 667 million in 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [2]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 4.1% in 2023 to 7.0% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [2]. Performance Metrics - For the second half of 2024, the company anticipates a revenue of RMB 84.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20%, with a gross margin of 6.9% [7]. - The company expects that by 2025, at least 55% of mobile module shipments will be 32 million pixels or higher, with a significant increase in sales of fingerprint modules and automotive IoT modules [7]. - The average selling price of camera modules is projected to increase, contributing to overall revenue growth [7]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning target price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15.0x for mobile camera modules, 18.0x for other camera modules, and 20.0x for fingerprint recognition modules, leading to a target price of HKD 9.1 [7][15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [5][10]. Core Insights - The company has unveiled a humanoid robot prototype capable of various actions, showcasing its innovation in robotics [5]. - The company has a strong foundation in the robotics industry, having entered the industrial robotics sector in 2015 and acquired KUKA, a leading global manufacturer [6]. - The company is integrating resources to develop humanoid robots, focusing on key components such as gear reducers, motors, sensors, and controllers [6]. - Recent government policies are expected to support the home appliance sector, with a significant increase in funding for consumer goods upgrades [6]. - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of RMB 39.06 billion, RMB 44.05 billion, and RMB 49.11 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.8%, 12.8%, and 11.5% [6]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 373.71 billion in 2023 to RMB 442.58 billion in 2025 [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from RMB 4.93 in 2023 to RMB 6.32 in 2025 [5][12]. - The dividend per share (DPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 3.00 in 2023 to RMB 3.79 in 2025, with a dividend yield exceeding 4% [5][12].