丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨福莱特玻璃（6865.HK） [Table_Title] 2024Q4 单平盈利触底，2025Q2 迎来量利修复 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 福莱特发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现收入 186.83 亿元，同比下降 13.2%；归母净利 10.07 亿元，同比下降 63.52%；其中，2024Q4 实现收入 40.79 亿元，同比下降 27.67%，环比增长 4.37%；归母净利-2.89 亿元，同比下降 136.54%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 曹海花 王耀 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490524120006 SFC：BQK482 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 福莱特玻璃（6865.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 2024Q4 单平盈利触底，2025Q2 迎来量利修复 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 福莱特发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现收入 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on product iteration and membership operations to build a competitive moat, emphasizing the creation of an innovative product ecosystem [1]. - The company plans to expand its product offerings with new series featuring major global IPs such as Harry Potter and Hatsune Miku, alongside upgrades to its classic series [2]. - The company is committed to user-driven brand building, engaging over 24 million users through various platforms and global events, enhancing interaction with its community [3][4]. Summary by Sections Product Ecosystem - The company introduced the concept of a "product ecosystem" at its 2025 Global Partner Conference, highlighting its commitment to product development and market expansion [1]. - The ecosystem is likened to a tree, with over 500 patents, six classic series, and a diverse product matrix as its foundation [1]. New Product Series - The company showcased six classic series and announced three new series that will include popular global IPs, indicating a strategic move to capture new consumer segments [2]. Brand Engagement - The company has successfully connected with over 240 million fans globally through its BFC (Bricks Creator) initiatives, which include various creative competitions and events [3][4]. - The BFC community is seen as a vital driver for brand growth, fostering creativity and connection among users [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 3.8 billion RMB, 5.3 billion RMB, and 7 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits projected at 960 million RMB, 1.48 billion RMB, and 2.08 billion RMB respectively [5].

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 顺丰同城（09699.HK） 2024 年年报点评：利润稳健释放，看好 2025 年继续成长 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 12,390 | 15,746 | 19,602 | 23,622 | 27,874 | | 同比(%) | 20.69 | 27.09 | 24.49 | 20.51 | 18.00 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 50.60 | 132.46 | 247.34 | 362.38 | 491.45 | | 同比(%) | 117.63 | 161.80 | 86.73 | 46.51 | 35.62 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.27 | 0.40 | 0.54 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 147.46 | 56.33 | 30.16 | 20.59 | 15.18 | [ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [1][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to enhance its competitiveness through strengthening product R&D capabilities, supply chain capabilities, operational management, brand influence, and digital capabilities [2]. - The company's performance in 2024 was below expectations, with a decline in same-store revenue and a slowdown in store opening growth. Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been lowered to 7.18 billion and 7.88 billion RMB respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 of 8.62 billion RMB [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is reported at 49.18 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.72 billion RMB, down 59% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit is 6.45 billion RMB, a decline of 49% [5][6]. - The company had a total of 8,395 stores by the end of 2024, an increase of 8% year-on-year, with 8,382 being franchise stores and 13 being directly operated stores. The net increase in franchise stores was 587 [6]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 31.2%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased support for franchisees [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][25]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 1.72 billion RMB in 2024H2, representing a year-on-year growth of 20%, with adjusted profit increasing by 44% [1][11]. - The paid penetration rate reached 4.7%, with significant growth in the imaging and design product revenue, which increased by 59% year-on-year [2][16]. - The company is expanding its productivity and overseas scenarios, with international market revenue growth reaching 42%, higher than domestic growth [3][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024H2, the company reported total revenue of 1.72 billion RMB, a 20% increase year-on-year, driven by strong growth in imaging products [1][11]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024H2 was 310 million RMB, reflecting a 44% year-on-year increase, with a profit margin of 18% [1][11]. - The gross profit was 1.24 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 72%, up 9 percentage points year-on-year [1][11]. Revenue Breakdown - Imaging and design product revenue reached 1.155 billion RMB in 2024H2, up 59% year-on-year, while advertising revenue grew by 8% to 440 million RMB [2][19]. - The beauty industry solutions revenue decreased by 60% to 110 million RMB, with expectations of continued contraction in 2025 [2][19]. User Metrics - The monthly active users (MAU) reached 266 million, a 7% increase year-on-year, with VIP paid members totaling 12.61 million, up 38% [2][16]. - The average revenue per user (ARRPU) was 197 RMB, reflecting an 11% increase year-on-year [2][16]. Future Projections - The company expects to continue releasing operational leverage, with adjusted net profits projected at 850 million RMB, 1.13 billion RMB, and 1.43 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][24]. - The target price has been adjusted to 6.4-7.0 HKD, reflecting an increase of 42-46% [4][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in adjusted net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 380% to 179.67 million HKD for 2024, driven by improved gross margins and operational efficiency [8] - Revenue for 2024 is expected to grow by 20% to 2.4 billion HKD, with gross profit increasing by 24% to 1.1 billion HKD, resulting in a gross margin of 43.8% [8] - The company is expanding its AI capabilities and digital content management services, leveraging its software services and AI technology to provide solutions for the creative economy [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for 2024-2027 are as follows: - 2024: 2.4 billion HKD - 2025: 3.0 billion HKD - 2026: 3.7 billion HKD - 2027: 4.4 billion HKD - Adjusted net profit projections for the same period are: - 2024: 179.67 million HKD - 2025: 234.23 million HKD - 2026: 312.21 million HKD - 2027: 393.45 million HKD [1][8][9] Business Segmentation - Subscription service revenue is projected to grow by 27% to 1.1 billion HKD in 2024, accounting for 46% of total revenue, while value-added service revenue is expected to increase by 15% to 1.3 billion HKD, making up 54% of total revenue [8] - Revenue from North America and other regions is expected to grow by 22% to 1.2 billion HKD, while revenue from China is projected to increase by 19% to 1.2 billion HKD [8] Market Positioning - The company is actively participating in the construction of digital content asset infrastructure projects across various regions, enhancing its asset management capabilities for diverse content forms [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for 康臣药业 (1681.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on financial performance and growth prospects [1]. Core Viewpoints - 康臣药业 reported a revenue of 2.967 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.56%, and a net profit of 910 million yuan, up 16.05% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company declared a final dividend of 0.3 HKD per share, with a projected dividend yield of approximately 11.04% for 2024 [1]. - The report highlights strong growth in the renal, pediatric, and orthopedic drug segments, with notable increases in revenue from key products [2]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: - Total revenue: 2.967 billion yuan (YoY +14.56%) - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 910 million yuan (YoY +16.05%) - Operating cash flow: 1.087 billion yuan (YoY +32.73%) - ROE (diluted): 22.22% - Dividend payout ratio: 78.17% - Debt-to-asset ratio: 24.94% - Cash and cash equivalents: 2.908 billion yuan [1][3]. - **Revenue Breakdown**: - Renal drugs revenue: 1.99 billion yuan (YoY +14.5%) - Pediatric drugs revenue: 360 million yuan (YoY +23.3%) - Orthopedic drugs revenue: 253 million yuan (YoY +64.89%) [2]. - **Future Projections**: - Expected revenues for 2025-2027: 3.354 billion yuan, 3.750 billion yuan, and 4.203 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 13%, 12%, and 12% [2][3]. - Expected net profits for the same period: 1.041 billion yuan, 1.167 billion yuan, and 1.305 billion yuan, with growth rates of 14%, 12%, and 12% [3]. Key Financial Ratios - **Gross Margin**: Approximately 75.56% for 2024, projected to remain stable over the next few years [3]. - **P/E Ratios**: Expected to be 6.90, 7.07, 6.31, and 5.64 for 2024-2027 respectively [3][5]. - **P/B Ratios**: Expected to be 1.59 for 2024, decreasing to 1.26 by 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a target price adjusted to HKD 23.02, indicating a potential upside of 1.6% from the current price of HKD 22.65 [7][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights stable rental income and dividends, but notes uncertainty in property development cycles. The company is expected to experience a decline in revenue in 2024, with a projected decrease of 8.4% to HKD 25.26 billion, primarily due to reduced property deliveries [2][8]. - Despite the challenges, core net profit is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year to HKD 9.77 billion in 2024, supported by gains from property sales and government land compensation [8][9]. - The report anticipates stable rental income growth from 2025 to 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13%, driven by new projects and improved occupancy rates in prime office spaces [8][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: HKD 27.57 billion in 2023, HKD 25.26 billion in 2024, and expected growth to HKD 29.02 billion in 2025 [5][13]. - Core earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be HKD 2.00 in 2023, slightly increasing to HKD 2.02 in 2024, but expected to decline to HKD 1.90 in 2025 [5][13]. - The company maintains a stable dividend policy, with an annual dividend of HKD 1.80 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.9% [5][8]. Market Performance - The company's stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 4.03%, with a 52-week high of HKD 27.25 and a low of HKD 20.55 [4][9]. - The market capitalization is approximately HKD 109.66 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 2.84 million shares [4][9]. Future Outlook - The report indicates that the company has HKD 11.53 billion in unsold sales, with about HKD 10.53 billion expected to be recognized in 2025 [8]. - Future rental growth is anticipated from several key projects, including the completion of a major waterfront project in Central and developments in Shenzhen and Shanghai [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in profit due to store closures and investment losses, with a focus on developing new store formats [1] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%, and a net profit loss of 917 million yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss [5][6] - The company is exploring "green" store formats and aims to reduce costs and improve efficiency to achieve profitability [9] Revenue Performance - The company's revenue from direct stores, bottled beverages, and other businesses in 2024 was 4.16 billion, 293 million, and 469 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -11.4%, +10.0%, and +128.0% [6] - The revenue breakdown by product shows that ready-to-drink tea, baked goods, bottled beverages, and other products generated 3.39 billion, 528 million, 293 million, and 711 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -10.3%, -25.3%, +10.0%, and +72.2% [6] Store Count and Adjustments - As of the end of 2024, the company had 1,453 direct stores, a decrease of 121 stores year-on-year [7] - The company opened its franchise model in July 2023, resulting in a net increase of 264 franchise stores to a total of 345 by the end of 2024 [7] Cost Structure - In 2024, the adjusted net profit margin was -18.7%, a decrease of 19.1 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The cost of raw materials accounted for 36.8% of revenue, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Employee costs represented 29.2% of revenue, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [8] Future Outlook - The company plans to transform 200-300 stores in first-tier and new first-tier cities by 2025 to meet consumer demand and enhance profitability [9] - The company has achieved profitability in the Thai market and plans to open over 20 stores in 2025, while expanding cautiously in the U.S. market [9] Financial Forecasts - The company's projected net profit for 2025 is -165 million yuan, with a subsequent recovery expected in 2026 and 2027 [11] - Revenue is expected to grow at a rate of 0.7% in 2025, followed by 6.2% in 2026 and 7.2% in 2027 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for 康耐特光学 (2276.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on performance metrics and growth potential. Core Viewpoints - 康耐特光学 reported a revenue of 2.061 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, and a net profit of 428 million RMB, which is a 31.0% increase year-on-year [1] - The company is experiencing steady growth in standardized lenses, with revenues of 907 million RMB (+8.8% YoY), and customized and functional products growing rapidly, with revenues of 395 million RMB (+11.8% YoY) and 755 million RMB (+32.4% YoY) respectively [2] - The company’s self-owned brand revenue reached 1.150 billion RMB, a 24.5% increase, accounting for 55.8% of total revenue, indicating strong market penetration and brand growth [3] - 康耐特光学 is expanding its collaboration with leading global technology and consumer electronics companies for smart glasses, preparing for future AR or AI projects [4] - The company’s gross margin improved to 38.6%, a 1.2 percentage point increase, and the net profit margin reached 20.8%, a 2.2 percentage point increase, reflecting operational efficiency [5] Financial Summary - For 2024, 康耐特光学 achieved total revenue of 2.061 billion RMB, with projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 2.389 billion RMB, 2.762 billion RMB, and 3.184 billion RMB respectively, indicating a consistent growth trajectory [6] - The forecasted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 544 million RMB, 663 million RMB, and 812 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 22%, and 22% [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.03 RMB in 2024 to 1.69 RMB by 2027 [6]