证券研究报告 龙湖集团 (960 HK) 港股通 经营业务托底，开发业务仍待修复 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 30 日│中国香港 | 房地产开发 | 公司发布业绩：24 年实现营收 1275 亿元，同比-29%；核心/归母净利润 70/104 亿元，同比-39%/-19%，符合业绩预告。我们认为公司开发业务短 期内仍将承压，但市场对此已有一定预期，随着经营性业务持续构筑业绩基 本盘，将一定程度上对冲地产业务下行带来的不利影响，维持"买入"评级。 经营性业务稳健增长，发挥压舱石作用 24 年公司经营性业务稳中有进，收入/毛利同比+7%+6%，占比同比+7/26pct 至 21%/70%，成为业绩压舱石。24 年公司旗下商场同店营业额同比+7%（高 于社零增速），整体出租率同比+1pct 至 97%，租金收入同比+7%至 110 亿 元；冠寓租金收入/服务业务收入同比+4%/+10%至 27/132 亿元，均实现稳 健增长。25 年公司计划新开业商场 11 个，对应总开业面积将同比+12%， 有望支持经营性业务利润进 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 8.50 HKD [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 58.27 billion HKD for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.9%, and a net profit of 1.54 billion HKD, up 94.8% year-on-year, which is in line with expectations [1][4]. - The international freight forwarding segment saw a profit of 1.95 billion HKD, a 39% increase year-on-year, primarily due to rising international sea and air freight rates [1][2]. - The comprehensive logistics segment experienced a profit decline of 3% year-on-year to 1.25 billion HKD, mainly due to weak demand [1][3]. - For 2025, it is anticipated that international shipping prices will significantly decline from the high base of 2024, while comprehensive logistics business is expected to improve with a recovery in overall macro demand [1][4]. Summary by Sections International Freight Forwarding - The revenue for the international freight forwarding business in 2024 was 43.83 billion HKD, a 35% increase year-on-year, with profits of 1.95 billion HKD, up 39% [2]. - Profit contributions by market include: Mainland China 670 million HKD (yoy +33%), Americas 610 million HKD (yoy +58%), Asia 320 million HKD (yoy +44%), Europe, Middle East, and Africa 230 million HKD (yoy +29%), Hong Kong 60 million HKD (yoy +27%), and Oceania 60 million HKD (yoy -8%) [2]. Comprehensive Logistics - The comprehensive logistics business reported a revenue of 14.45 billion HKD in 2024, a 4% decline year-on-year, with profits of 1.25 billion HKD, down 3% [3]. - Profit contributions by market include: Hong Kong 520 million HKD (yoy -12%), Asia 360 million HKD (yoy +25%), Mainland China 350 million HKD (yoy -11%), and Oceania 20 million HKD (yoy +28%) [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 15% and 18% to 1.34 billion HKD and 1.44 billion HKD, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 1.54 billion HKD [4]. - The target price has been adjusted down by 15% to 8.50 HKD based on a PE ratio of 11.5x for 2025E [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company has successfully turned a profit in 2024, achieving a net profit of 220 million yuan, compared to a loss in the previous year, with an adjusted net profit of 310 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 50.6% [1][7]. - The company's revenue for 2024 was 1.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.8% year-on-year, but the second half of 2024 showed signs of recovery with a revenue of 1.01 billion yuan, only down 0.8% year-on-year [1][7]. - The CRO (Contract Research Organization) business is showing recovery with a revenue of 810 million yuan in 2024, down 4.0% year-on-year, but the second half of 2024 saw a revenue increase of 5.8% year-on-year [7]. - The CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) business reported a revenue of 1.18 billion yuan in 2024, down 10.3% year-on-year, with two significant projects nearing commercialization [7]. - The investment incubation business is entering a harvest phase, with 93 startups incubated and 15 having achieved full or partial exits by the end of 2024 [7]. - The company is transitioning its drug discovery platform from "AI-assisted" to "AI-driven," with 157 projects involving AI and over 10 million USD in revenue from AI-enabled projects [7]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2.28 billion, 2.63 billion, and 3.10 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 350 million, 400 million, and 480 million yuan respectively [7]. Financial Data Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 2.159 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 2.278 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15% [2][9]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to grow from 315 million yuan in 2024 to 477 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios decreasing from 11.2 to 7.4 [2][10]. - The company’s total assets are projected to increase from 7.051 billion yuan in 2024 to 8.336 billion yuan in 2027 [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 exceeded expectations, with a projected revenue of 28.66 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.79% [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 6.24 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.94% [9] - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in 2025, with net profit forecasts adjusted upwards to 6.62 billion yuan [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 24.97 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 10.12% [1] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is projected to increase by 3.8 percentage points to 28.1%, with the first half of 2024 showing a gross margin of 29% and the second half at 27.4% [3] - The company plans to acquire a fabric factory in Vietnam, which is expected to have a production capacity of 200 tons per day once operational [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 4.15 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.30 [1][10] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from sportswear, casual wear, and underwear is expected to grow by 9.8%, 27.1%, and 34.6% respectively in 2024 [9] - The contribution from major clients such as Nike, Adidas, Uniqlo, and Puma is expected to increase, with respective revenue growth rates of 3.8%, 23.3%, 35.4%, and 10.9% [9] - The company’s revenue from different regions is projected to grow, with Japan showing the highest growth rate of 31.5% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company has shown steady improvement in gross margin and has fully integrated intelligent driving technology into its vehicles [1] - Revenue and profit forecasts have been adjusted, with EPS estimates for 2025-2027 set at 1.27, 1.50, and 1.84 RMB respectively, maintaining a target price of 20.65 HKD [2] - The company aims for a sales target of 2.71 million vehicles in 2025, representing a 24.5% year-on-year growth [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 179,204 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1% [4] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 15.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous year [9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to reach 16,632 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 213.3% [4][9] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 3.3 HKD per 10 shares to all shareholders [9] Sales and Market Position - Total vehicle sales reached 2.1767 million units in 2024, marking a 32.0% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales growing by 91.9% [9] - The company has set ambitious sales targets for its brands, with specific goals for 吉利 (Geely), 极氪 (Zeekr), and 领克 (Lynk & Co) [9] Future Outlook - The company is set to launch a new cycle of electric vehicles in 2025, with multiple new models planned under its upgraded Galaxy brand [9] - The integration of advanced intelligent driving systems across all new models is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the market [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to improve its profitability despite the impact of goodwill impairment on profits [1]. - The revenue and operating profit for 2024 are projected to be CNY 886.75 billion and CNY 72.57 billion, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -10.1% and +17.6% [5]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be CNY 44.35 billion, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% [5]. - The company continues to optimize its product structure, leading to an effective increase in gross margin, with gross margin and operating profit margin for 2024 at 39.6% and 8.2%, respectively, up by 2.4 and 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Summary by Sections Product Performance - The company has seen stable development in ambient liquid milk, while low-temperature yogurt has performed well [6]. - Revenue from liquid milk and ice cream for 2024 is expected to be CNY 730.66 billion and CNY 51.75 billion, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -11.0% and -14.1% [6]. - The company is expanding its lactose-free product line and enhancing its brand presence in the baking and tea beverage sectors [6]. Business Segments - The milk powder business is recovering, with revenue expected to be CNY 33.20 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [7]. - The cheese business has been successfully integrated, leading to significant improvements in profitability [7]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, maintaining a leading position in markets such as Indonesia and the Philippines [9]. Financial Forecast - The company anticipates revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of CNY 900.16 billion, CNY 921.34 billion, and CNY 943.07 billion, respectively [10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from CNY 1.32 in 2025 to CNY 1.63 in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14, 13, and 11 times [10]. - The report highlights that there is room for product structure optimization across different categories, and a decrease in management expense ratio is expected to offset some of the increase in sales expense ratio [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see steady improvement in gross margin and has fully integrated intelligent driving technology into its vehicles [1] - The revenue and profit forecasts have been adjusted, with EPS estimates for 2025-2027 set at 1.27, 1.50, and 1.84 RMB respectively, maintaining a target price of 19.05 RMB or 20.65 HKD [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 179,204 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1% - The operating profit for 2023 was 3,806 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 4.3% - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5,308 million RMB, with a slight increase of 0.9% - The gross margin for 2023 was 15.3%, with a net margin of 3.0% and a return on equity (ROE) of 6.6% [4][10][11] Sales and Growth Projections - The company aims for a total sales target of 271,000 vehicles in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.5% - The sales targets for the brands are set at 200,000 for Geely, 32,000 for Zeekr, and 39,000 for Lynk & Co, with respective growth rates of 19.8%, 44.1%, and 36.6% [9][10] Brand and Product Development - The company plans to launch five new energy models under the Galaxy brand in 2025, alongside several updated models, all equipped with advanced intelligent driving systems [9][10] - The sales of new energy vehicles reached 88.82 million units in 2024, marking a 91.9% increase, with new energy vehicles accounting for 40.8% of total sales [9] Market Position and Valuation - The company is positioned within the automotive and components industry in China, with a market capitalization of 168,281 million HKD [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 27.5 in 2023 to 7.9 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation [4][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook on revenue growth and operational capabilities, suggesting a favorable investment perspective [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 10.71 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 504 million yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, indicating strong revenue growth but some pressure on profit margins due to factors like shipping costs and pricing strategies [1][2]. - The cross-border sales and logistics solutions business showed significant growth, with revenues of 8.27 billion yuan and 2.44 billion yuan respectively, marking increases of 17.6% and 47.7% year-on-year, driven by an expansion of warehouse space [2]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 30.8%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising logistics costs, while the gross margin for the sales business was 36.2%, down 2.7 percentage points [3]. - The company has strengthened its market share in various product categories on Amazon's US platform, benefiting from excellent supply chain management and product development capabilities [4]. - Future revenue growth is expected to continue, with the main product categories projected to maintain stable growth, particularly in furniture and home appliances, while the electric tools segment is anticipated to grow at a rate of 40%-50% under a branding strategy [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10.71 billion yuan, with a projected revenue growth of 20% in 2025, reaching approximately 12.90 billion yuan [8]. - The net profit for 2024 was 504 million yuan, with forecasts of 581 million yuan for 2025, indicating a recovery with a 15% increase [8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.40 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.25 [8]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its inventory turnover days, showcasing enhanced operational efficiency, and achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 535 million yuan in 2024 [3][10]. - The logistics solutions business has been effectively integrated with product sales, enhancing overall operational capabilities [4]. Market Position - The company has seen a continuous increase in market share across multiple product categories, with a strong presence in the US market [4]. - The expansion of warehouse space to 780,000 square meters has bolstered the company's competitive position in cross-border logistics [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 114.55 HKD [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant growth in earnings per share (EPS), with projections of 2.47, 3.09, and 3.52 CNY for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment from previous estimates [2][10]. - The company is solidifying its leading position in mobile and automotive optical technology, with a focus on product development and market expansion [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 31,832 million CNY in 2023 to 47,033 million CNY in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [4]. - Operating profit is expected to rebound significantly, from 750 million CNY in 2023 to 3,797 million CNY in 2026, indicating a strong recovery [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 1,099 million CNY in 2023 to 3,856 million CNY in 2026, with a notable growth rate of 146% in 2024 [4][9]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 14.5% in 2023 to 19.0% in 2026, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [4]. Business Segment Performance - The optical components business is expected to grow by approximately 23% in revenue, driven by a 13% increase in automotive lens shipments and the successful launch of new high-performance products [9]. - The mobile lens segment is projected to maintain its global market leadership, with a 13% increase in shipments, supported by advancements in product technology [9]. - The optoelectronic products segment is forecasted to grow by about 21%, with significant improvements in product structure and market share [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is gradually recovering from past challenges, with expectations for a rebound in bottled water market share in 2025 [8] - The company achieved a revenue of 42.896 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit of 12.123 billion CNY, also up 0.4% year-on-year [4] - The report anticipates a double-digit revenue growth in 2025, driven by improvements in bottled water market share and continued strength in ready-to-drink tea [9] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the revenue from bottled water was 15.952 billion CNY, down 21.3% year-on-year, while ready-to-drink tea revenue was 16.745 billion CNY, up 32.3% year-on-year [4][5] - The company’s other income and gains reached 2.129 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.6% [7] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 58.1%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to promotional activities for bottled water [6] - The net profit margin remained stable at 28.3% for 2024 [7] Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its product offerings and marketing strategies to strengthen its market position in the ready-to-drink tea segment [8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 14.130 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 16.6% [10]