证券研究报告：汽车 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-11-18 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 | 公司基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 最新收盘价（元） | 9.71 | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）9.95 / 9.20 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）97 / 89 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 14.93 / 9.62 | | 资产负债率(%) | 55.1% | | 市盈率 | 416.74 | | 第一大股东 | 孙锋峰 | 研究所 分析师:付秉正 SAC 登记编号:S1340524100004 Email:fubingzheng@cnpsec.com 金固股份(002488) 25Q3 盈利能力同比改善，低碳车轮产能布局提速 ⚫ 事件 金固股份发布 2025 年三季报，公司前三季度实现营业收入 30.86 亿元，同比+6.91%。实现归母净利润 0.42 亿元，同比+29.77%，实现 扣非归母净利润 0.35 亿元，同比+39.13%。 ⚫ 点评 增持|首次覆盖 个股表现 -5% 1% 7% 13% 19% 25% 31% 37% 43% 49 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for Qingmu Technology [5][6]. Core Views - Qingmu Technology is positioned as a data and technology-driven one-stop retail service expert, focusing on e-commerce operations, brand incubation, and technical solutions across various consumer sectors [5][6]. - The company has established a stable and concentrated shareholding structure, with the founders holding approximately 39% of the shares, ensuring management stability [19][21]. - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of 15.1 billion, 19.0 billion, and 23.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 30.5%, 26.5%, and 23.0% [4][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 11.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.2%, and a projected net profit of 0.91 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 73.84% [4][24]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize above 50%, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 8.5% in 2025, increasing to 13.0% by 2027 [4][6]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 1.31 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 45.2% [6][24]. Business Model and Competitive Advantage - Qingmu Technology operates in three main business segments: e-commerce operations, brand incubation, and technical solutions, leveraging data and technology to enhance operational efficiency [5][6]. - The company has a strong competitive edge through its ability to integrate consumer data across multiple platforms, which allows it to provide tailored solutions for brand growth [8][35]. - The brand incubation segment is expected to become the largest revenue contributor, with projected revenues of 3.07 billion yuan in 2024 [32][35]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has successfully expanded into high-growth sectors such as trendy toys and health products, with significant partnerships with brands like Skechers and Jellycat [5][35]. - Qingmu Technology's strategic focus on digital marketing and technology solutions positions it well to capture market share in the evolving e-commerce landscape [5][6]. - The report highlights the potential for continued growth in the e-commerce operations segment, driven by the increasing demand for integrated digital solutions [7][35].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company has shown impressive profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 20.068 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.081 billion yuan, up 26.0% [1][9] - The company is expanding its market presence across China, leveraging a combination of self-built stores, franchises, and acquisitions, establishing a leading position in the industry [3][78] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 27.205 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 2.7% [3][101] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's sales expense ratio decreased to 21.8%, while the net profit margin improved to 5.8% [2][17] - The gross profit margin for the retail business was 37.7%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase [2][17] - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue and profit over the next few years, with net profit expected to reach 1.208 billion yuan in 2025, a growth of 32.0% [3][101] Business Model and Strategy - The company operates a diversified business model that includes direct retail, franchise operations, and distribution, focusing on high-margin products [41][90] - The company has developed a robust supply chain and logistics system to enhance operational efficiency and customer service [41][88] - The franchise model is becoming a significant growth driver, with the number of franchise stores increasing substantially [82][86] Market Position and Expansion - The company has established a strong presence in South China and is expanding into other regions, including the Yangtze River Delta and Northeast China [3][78] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company had a total of 17,385 stores, with a significant proportion being franchise stores [28][80] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing transformation in the pharmacy industry, which is shifting from rapid expansion to deeper integration [3][44] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from structural growth opportunities in the pharmacy sector, driven by trends such as prescription drug outflow and the professionalization of retail endpoints [3][60] - The projected revenue for 2026 and 2027 is 30.071 billion yuan and 33.363 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [3][101]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in low-power Bluetooth SoC, focusing on wearable devices and AIoT applications, with significant market share in TWS earphones and smartwatches [7][8]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 42.53 billion, 54.41 billion, and 67.11 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 30%, 28%, and 23% [8]. - The company has a strong competitive position due to its advanced technology and established relationships with major brands like Samsung, OPPO, and Xiaomi [7][8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 3,263 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 49.9% [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 798 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 73.2% [6]. - The company maintains a low asset-liability ratio of 7.59% and a high return on equity (ROE) of 10.9% in 2025 [6]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company holds approximately 10% of the global TWS main control chip market, ranking fourth in terms of shipment volume [7]. - The smart wearable chip segment is expected to see significant growth, with revenue projected to reach 10.45 billion yuan in 2024, a 116% increase year-on-year [7]. - The introduction of AI glasses and the development of proprietary ISP technology position the company for future growth in high-performance wearable SoCs [7]. Product Development and Technology - The company has developed a unified software and algorithm framework that enhances customer stickiness and supports multiple product lines [7]. - The BES2800 chip, built on a 6nm process, integrates advanced features such as dual-core Cortex-M55 and self-developed NPU, catering to the needs of AI and low-power applications [7][8]. - The company’s strategy of "one chip for multiple uses" allows for a versatile application of its chips across various devices, enhancing platform reuse [31]. Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned against both domestic and international competitors, with a focus on high-end markets and a strategy to maintain technological leadership [10][38]. - The competitive advantage is bolstered by a strong customer base, with the top five clients accounting for 74% of sales in 2024 [38]. Valuation Metrics - As of November 17, 2025, the company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected at 45 times for 2025 and 34 times for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 29% compared to comparable companies [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The acquisition of a 19% stake in Baicai Bang by the company's wholly-owned subsidiary Mingcheng Jinkong is aimed at expanding into the advanced communication sector [1][8] - The company is expected to benefit from resource synergy and open a second growth curve through this acquisition, especially as the real estate sector begins to stabilize [24] Summary by Sections 1. Baicai Bang as an Emerging Communication Network Equipment Provider - Baicai Bang focuses on 5G/4G/2G mobile communication and future integrated communication solutions (6G), covering both terrestrial and aerial communication sectors [13] - The founding team has strong expertise and a solid shareholder background, including support from notable investment institutions [13][20] 2. Acquisition Achieves Resource Synergy and Expands into Emerging Communication Fields - Baicai Bang possesses end-to-end network solution capabilities, breaking the technical monopoly of traditional communication giants [21] - The market for Baicai Bang is characterized by vast space and rapid growth, particularly in emerging markets and vertical industries [22] - The company has established a global marketing network, serving over 1,400 clients across more than 100 countries [20] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report revises the net profit forecast for 2025-2026 to RMB 280 million (previously RMB 143 million) and RMB 249 million (previously RMB 129 million) respectively, with a 2027 forecast of RMB 268 million [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company is the world's second-largest producer of lithium hexafluorophosphate, with a strong integrated layout and leading technology in crystalline hexafluoride. The demand for lithium batteries is expected to continue growing, leading to a significant rebound in hexafluoride supply and demand, with prices increasing over 170% from the bottom. This business is projected to contribute significantly to profits next year [1][7]. - The cylindrical battery business is starting to gain traction, with the company expected to become a key player in this field, contributing positively to profitability [1][27]. - The company has a comprehensive advantage in the hexafluoride sector, with a complete industrial chain from raw materials to lithium batteries, which enhances cost advantages [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Comprehensive Advantages in Hexafluoride - The company has established a complete industrial chain for hexafluoride production, significantly reducing raw material costs [10]. - It is the first domestic company to achieve breakthroughs in high-purity crystalline hexafluorophosphate technology, simplifying operations and improving raw material utilization [10][7]. 2. Reversal in Hexafluoride Supply and Demand - The hexafluoride market is experiencing a reversal in supply and demand, with prices rising sharply due to increased demand from the lithium battery sector. The average price has surged from 50,000 yuan/ton to over 150,000 yuan/ton [13][14]. - The company has a diverse customer base, with less than 30% of revenue coming from its top five customers, allowing it to be more sensitive to price increases [14][13]. 3. Growth in Cylindrical Battery Business - The company has been developing its battery business for over a decade, focusing on cylindrical batteries, which are now seeing significant demand in various sectors [27]. - The company aims to achieve a shipment volume of over 10 GWh in 2025, with expectations to reach 20-30 GWh in subsequent years [27][28]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate revenues of approximately 10.26 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant increase projected for 2026 and 2027 [33][32]. - The gross profit margin for the hexafluoride business is expected to improve significantly, with projections of 28% in 2025 and 41% in 2026 [32][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longxin Co., Ltd. (688486.SH) [5] Core Insights - Longxin Co., Ltd. is actively developing high-speed data transmission products for AI applications, with PCIe expected to become a new growth point. The company leverages its technology in mixed-signal fields to create chips for AI training, inference, and data storage [1][5] - The automotive electronics segment is expanding, with successful market promotion of the vehicle SerDes chipsets and continuous development of smart cockpit and vehicle-side applications [2] - The traditional bridging business shows steady growth, with the company maintaining its leading position in the domestic market and ranking sixth globally in sales and market share of high-definition video bridging chips [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Longxin Co., Ltd. achieved revenue of 389 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 125 million yuan, up 32.47% year-on-year [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 705 million, 1.119 billion, and 1.450 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 206 million, 342 million, and 428 million yuan [3][4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 0.77 yuan in 2023 to 3.21 yuan in 2027, reflecting strong growth potential [4] Product Development and Market Position - The company has successfully developed a 12.5Gbps SerDes technology for high-end automotive markets, addressing the demand for long-distance video transmission and ultra-high-definition display [2] - Longxin Co., Ltd. is expanding its product line in high-definition video bridging and processing chips, with new products expected to be shipped in the second half of 2025 [3]

| [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 47.59 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 49.78/15.37 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2,001 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1,472 | | 流通股比例（%） | 73.55 | | 总市值（亿元） | 952 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 701 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -34% 9% 51% 94% 136% 11/24 2/25 5/25 8/25 天赐材料 沪深300 天赐材料（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 002709） 公司点评 充分受益锂电景气度上升，6F 涨价带动业绩回暖 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-11-18 | [Table_Author] 分析师：张志邦 | 执业证书号：S0010523120004 | | --- | | 邮箱： zhangzhibang@hazq.com | [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.25 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the third quarter of 2025 faced short-term pressure, with emerging businesses showing significant progress [4] - The company anticipates that the third quarter represents a relative low point for performance, with product upgrades and overseas expansion expected to drive growth [5] - The company has made substantial advancements in new business areas, including lithium iron phosphate, sodium batteries, and solid-state battery materials, indicating a robust platform strategy [6][7] - The company is positioned to benefit from its overseas capacity expansion and product upgrades, which are expected to lead to a return to growth [8] Financial Performance Summary - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 8.986 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -204 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 274.96% [4] - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 2.737 billion yuan, down 38.29% year-on-year, with a net profit of -135 million yuan [4] - The company projects net profits of -111 million yuan, 679 million yuan, and 1.314 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18 and 9 for 2026 and 2027 [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady growth, with revenue of 4.967 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.53%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 682 million yuan, up 10.06% year-on-year [5][6] - The industrial sewing machine industry is experiencing a critical phase of smart transformation, with domestic demand under pressure while exports are growing. The company has successfully increased its market share through a "hit product strategy" and global expansion [6][7] - The introduction of AI sewing machines and humanoid robots is expected to open up long-term growth opportunities. The company has made significant technological advancements and is currently in the market promotion phase for its AI-integrated products [7][8] Financial Performance - For 2025-2027, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 6.581 billion, 7.335 billion, and 8.169 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.00%, 11.46%, and 11.37% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 921 million, 1.093 billion, and 1.284 billion yuan, with growth rates of 13.37%, 18.74%, and 17.45% respectively [8][10] - The company's PE ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 20.44, 17.22, and 14.66, indicating a favorable valuation trend [8][10]