Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue showed steady growth, driven by its own-brand business and closed-system product revenue from enterprise clients [3] - The company continues to invest heavily in R&D, particularly in heated tobacco (HNB) and medical vaporization products, positioning itself for future growth [4] - The global HNB market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% from 2023 to 2028, reaching USD 75.51 billion by 2028 [4] - The company is expected to benefit from increasing overseas demand for new tobacco products and potential market share gains from major clients [4] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 3.286 billion, up 14.1% YoY, while net profit declined by 22.5% YoY to RMB 379 million [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 8.323 billion, up 4.0% YoY, and net profit of RMB 1.062 billion, down 11.9% YoY [3] - The company's own-brand revenue grew by 71.9% YoY in the first half of 2024, reaching RMB 1.116 billion, with continued strong growth expected in Q3 [3] - R&D expenses increased by 23.7% YoY in the first half of 2024, reaching RMB 760 million [4] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 1.7 billion, RMB 2.05 billion, and RMB 2.48 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - Revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 19.87% and 16.65% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [5] - Net profit growth is expected to accelerate to 20.45% and 20.98% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [5] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to be 43x, 35x, and 29x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] Business Strategy - The company is focusing on digital marketing and rapid response to consumer demand for its own-brand products [3] - It is expanding its international market presence and localizing operations to enhance its competitive edge [3] - The company's HNB product portfolio is gaining recognition, and potential orders from major clients like British American Tobacco could drive future growth [4] Financial Ratios - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 38.81% in 2023 to 40.88% by 2026 [7] - ROE is projected to increase from 7.68% in 2023 to 9.05% by 2026 [7] - The company's net debt ratio is expected to remain negative, indicating a strong financial position [7]

Investment Rating and Target Price - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 65.0 for the company, based on a 28x adjusted PE for 2025 [1][6] Core Investment Thesis - The company is a leading platform for commercializing trendy IPs in China, with a mature operational system covering IP incubation, efficient supply chains, and omnichannel sales [1] - Four key drivers for 2024-26: overseas market expansion, store optimization, product innovation, and operational efficiency improvements [1] - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of RMB 2.21 billion, RMB 2.82 billion, and RMB 3.42 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] Industry Overview - The trendy toy market in China is experiencing rapid growth, driven by self-indulgence trends, female consumer power, and social media influence [2] - The domestic entertainment product market is projected to grow from RMB 71 billion in 2023 to RMB 128.9 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 16% [2] - The global trendy toy market was valued at USD 57.1 billion in 2023, with significant potential for Chinese brands to expand overseas [2] Company Strategy and Growth Drivers - The company is transitioning into a "big trendy toy" era, focusing on internationalization, product innovation, and refined operations [3] - Overseas revenue accounted for 30% of total revenue in 1H24, with a projected year-on-year growth of over 200% for the full year [4] - The company plans to expand its overseas store count to 130-140 by the end of 2024, with strong performance in high-potential markets like Thailand and the US [4] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 6.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 15.6 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 21.1% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 1.08 billion in 2023 to RMB 3.34 billion by 2026 [5] - ROE is expected to rise from 14.69% in 2023 to 26.32% by 2026, reflecting improved profitability and operational efficiency [5] Competitive Advantages - The company has built a strong IP matrix, with 10 IPs generating over RMB 100 million in sales annually [14] - Its supply chain efficiency and digital systems have improved, with automation levels increasing from less than 10% to 30-40% in recent years [43] - The company has a deep membership system with 3.89 million members as of 1H24, and a high repurchase rate of 50% [45] Market Expansion and Product Innovation - The company is expanding its product lines beyond blind boxes, with new categories like plush toys, building blocks, and collectible cards contributing to revenue growth [41] - It plans to launch non-toy formats such as dessert shops and accessory stores by the end of 2024, leveraging its IP resources [41] - The company is also exploring IP licensing, gaming, and theme parks to diversify its revenue streams [60]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 26.43 for 2024, based on a 12x PE multiple [2] Core Investment Thesis - Long-term: The company is well-positioned to benefit from global capacity coordination, electrification trends, and localization, with battery box business as a key growth driver [2] - Medium-term: Traditional exterior parts business is expected to grow steadily due to trends in intelligence and integration [2] - Short-term: Revenue is pressured by downstream customers, but battery box business is growing rapidly due to increased market share of new energy vehicles [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 20.52 billion in 2023 to RMB 36.45 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 21.0% [3] - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 1.90 billion in 2023 to RMB 3.97 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 26.7% [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.65 in 2023 to RMB 3.42 in 2026 [3] Business Overview - The company is a global leader in automotive exterior parts and battery boxes, with over 70 factories worldwide [12] - Key product lines include metal and trim parts, plastic parts, aluminum parts, and battery boxes, contributing 25.6%, 26.4%, 20.3%, and 16.6% of total revenue in 2023, respectively [15] - The battery box business has grown rapidly, with revenue increasing from RMB 270 million in 2021 to RMB 3.54 billion in 2023 [18] Market Trends - Europe's electrification trend remains strong despite subsidy reductions, driven by carbon emission regulations and fuel economy standards [26] - The global battery box market is expected to reach RMB 63.8 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 21.0% [44] - Localization is becoming a key trend, with the company expanding its overseas capacity to meet customer demands [55] Competitive Advantages - The company has a comprehensive product portfolio and strong R&D capabilities, with a focus on high-performance aluminum materials [53] - It has a diversified customer base, including major automakers such as Volkswagen, BMW, and Renault [54] - The company's vertical integration in the supply chain provides cost advantages and enhances its technological development capabilities [53] Industry Outlook - The automotive exterior parts market is expected to grow due to trends in intelligence and integration, with the company benefiting from its mature technology and patent barriers [2] - The battery box industry is highly competitive, but the company's cost efficiency, comprehensive manufacturing processes, and global capacity give it a strong position [47]

%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨零跑汽车（9863.HK） [Table_Title] 零跑汽车 9 月销量点评：月交付持续历史新高， 海外正式开始接受订单 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 报告要点 | | | [Table_Summary] 零跑汽车 9 月交付持续突破 3 万辆创历史新高，同比增长超 113% ，环比增长超 11% 。展望未 | | 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 零跑汽车（9863.HK） cjzqdt11111 2024-10-08 港股研究丨公司点评 [Table_BaseData] 当前股价（HKD） 33.50 注：股价为 2024 年 9 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Property & Casualty Insurance (02328) [1] Core Views - China Property & Casualty Insurance achieved steady growth in premium income and continued optimization in cost control during H1 2024 [1] - The company's market share remained leading in the property insurance market, despite a slight decline of 0.3pct YoY to 34.0% [2] - The comprehensive cost ratio was maintained at a good level of 96.2%, with effective cost control measures in place [2] - The company's investment income improved QoQ, with a stable solvency position [2] Business Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved original insurance premium income of RMB 311.996 billion, up 3.7% YoY [2] - Insurance service income reached RMB 235.841 billion, up 5.1% YoY, driven by growth in motor vehicle insurance (RMB 145.157 billion, +5.3% YoY), accident and health insurance (RMB 24.751 billion, +7.5% YoY), and liability insurance (RMB 18.339 billion, +8.4% YoY) [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 18.491 billion, down 8.7% YoY, mainly due to high-frequency natural disasters impacting non-auto insurance profitability [2] Cost Control - The comprehensive cost ratio for auto insurance was 96.4%, down 0.3pct YoY, with a comprehensive loss ratio of 71.2% (+1.5pct YoY) and a comprehensive expense ratio of 25.2% (-1.8pct YoY) [2] - Non-auto insurance had a comprehensive cost ratio of 95.8%, up 1.5pct YoY, with agricultural insurance showing improvement at 89.0% (-2.0pct YoY) due to business structure optimization [2] Investment Performance - Investment income in H1 2024 was RMB 13.971 billion, down 7.8% YoY, with an annualized total investment yield of 4.4% (-0.8pct YoY but +1.2pct QoQ) [2] - Investment assets totaled RMB 641.834 billion, up 6.8% YoY, with fixed-income assets at RMB 387.962 billion (+10.9% from the beginning of the year) and equity investment assets at RMB 154.936 billion (-2.2% YoY) [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow by 5.50%, 6.15%, and 6.32% YoY in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 7.63%, 9.17%, and 12.41% YoY in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] - EPS is forecasted to be RMB 1.19, RMB 1.30, and RMB 1.46 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] Valuation - The stock's PE ratio is estimated at 7.82x, 7.17x, and 6.37x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, based on the closing price as of September 17 [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for CLP Holdings [3][31]. Core Views - CLP Holdings is a century-old energy operator rooted in Hong Kong, with diversified operations across the Asia Pacific region [5]. - The company has shown significant profit recovery in 2023, with a net profit of HK$6.655 billion, reflecting a 620.2% year-on-year increase [7][10]. - The company aims to achieve a net-zero power generation target by 2050, aligning with Hong Kong's climate action goals [18]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - CLP Holdings is one of the largest private power companies in the Asia Pacific, with operations in Hong Kong, mainland China, Australia, India, Taiwan, and Thailand [5]. - The company operates a diverse generation portfolio, including coal, gas, nuclear, wind, hydro, and solar power [5]. 2. Financial Performance - Revenue has fluctuated from HK$85.689 billion in 2019 to HK$97.169 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of approximately 0.4% [7]. - The company’s operating profit before fair value changes was HK$101.27 billion in 2023, with Hong Kong contributing 76% [10]. - The company maintained a stable dividend policy, with a dividend yield of 4.81% in 2023 [14]. 3. Market Position - CLP Holdings is one of the two major electricity suppliers in Hong Kong, providing power to over 2.79 million customers [5]. - The company’s operations are regulated under a scheme that guarantees a return on investment, ensuring stable revenue streams [20]. 4. Renewable Energy Transition - The company is committed to expanding its renewable energy portfolio, with significant growth potential in mainland China, Australia, and India [26]. - CLP Holdings plans to phase out fossil fuel assets and increase renewable energy capacity, aiming for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions intensity by 2030 [29]. 5. Future Outlook - The report forecasts revenues of HK$902.66 billion, HK$938.67 billion, and HK$985.31 billion for 2024-2026, with net profits projected at HK$69.41 billion, HK$73.38 billion, and HK$75.63 billion respectively [31].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in aluminum production with a comprehensive integrated supply chain, including bauxite mining, alumina production, electrolytic aluminum, and deep processing of aluminum products [2][14]. - The company achieved a revenue of 73.59 billion RMB in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, and a net profit of 9.16 billion RMB, up 272.7% year-on-year, driven by rising aluminum prices and decreasing raw material costs [2][19]. - The domestic supply of bauxite is tightening, leading to increased reliance on imports, which enhances the resource attributes at the mining level and benefits the company due to its overseas resource layout [2][27]. - The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, with limited supply growth expected, while demand from new energy vehicles and the power sector is anticipated to provide a boost, leading to a favorable long-term supply-demand balance [2][26]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a cumulative dividend of 38.17 billion RMB since its listing in 2011 and an average payout ratio of 47.2% over the past five years [2][24]. Summary by Sections 1. High Elasticity and High Dividends, Leading Integrated Layout in Electrolytic Aluminum - The company has a global leading position in electrolytic aluminum production with a complete integrated supply chain [2][14]. - In H1 2024, the company’s revenue and net profit saw significant increases, attributed to favorable market conditions [2][19]. - The company has consistently maintained a high dividend payout, reflecting its stable financial performance [2][24]. 2. Electrolytic Aluminum Industry: Capacity Approaching Ceiling, Tightening Supply at the Mining Level - The domestic supply of bauxite is becoming increasingly constrained, leading to a higher dependency on imports [2][27]. - The report highlights the limited growth in electrolytic aluminum supply due to capacity constraints and the anticipated demand from emerging sectors [2][26]. 3. Advantages of Integrated Layout, Full Release of Profit Elasticity - The company’s strategic overseas resource layout positions it well to benefit from rising bauxite prices [2][27]. - The report projects continued growth in the company’s profitability due to its cost advantages and market positioning [2][3]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 19 billion RMB, 20.2 billion RMB, and 21.4 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 6x [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for China Biopharmaceuticals (1177.HK) for the first time [2][5]. Core Views - China Biopharmaceuticals is a leading player in the Chinese pharmaceutical industry, with expected continuous improvement in profit margins. The company reported a revenue of 26.199 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 8.97%, primarily due to the sale of its stake in Zhengda Qingdao and the impact of medical anti-corruption measures. However, the revenue from continuing operations showed a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year [3][5]. - The company is advancing its innovation and internationalization strategies across four core business segments: oncology, liver disease, respiratory, and surgical/pain management. The R&D expenditure in 2023 was 4.403 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 16.8% of revenue, with over 77% of this investment directed towards innovative and biological drugs [3][5][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Biopharmaceuticals is a key player in the Chinese pharmaceutical sector, with a stable shareholding structure and absolute control over its core subsidiaries. The company is part of the Charoen Pokphand Group, which has a strong global presence [10][13]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 26.199 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 8.97%. However, the first half of 2024 saw a revenue increase of 11.1%, reaching 15.874 billion yuan, indicating a return to positive growth [3][15]. - The adjusted net profit for the first half of 2024 was 1.540 billion yuan, up 14.0% year-on-year, signaling a potential turning point in profitability [3][15]. Business Segments - The oncology segment is expected to drive significant growth, with key products like Anlotinib and innovative therapies showing strong market potential. The company anticipates that Anlotinib will achieve a peak sales target of 10 billion yuan [21]. - The liver disease segment is also promising, with products like Magnesium Isoglycyrrhizinate expected to synergize with oncology offerings. The company has several products in late-stage clinical trials for NASH [19][21]. - The respiratory segment is positioned for growth, with inhaled formulations like Budesonide showing strong sales potential. The company has multiple innovative candidates in late-stage clinical trials [19][21]. - The surgical/pain management segment is supported by products like Flurbiprofen Gel, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth [19][21]. R&D and Innovation - The company is committed to expanding its R&D efforts, with a focus on innovative drugs. In 2023, R&D expenses reached 4.403 billion yuan, with a significant portion allocated to innovative drug development [19][21]. - The company plans to launch over 10 innovative products in the next three years, further enhancing its competitive position in the market [19][21].

2 开源证券 美容护理/化妆品 公 司 研 究 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 港股公司首次覆盖报告 股价走势图 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 上美股份 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 主品牌韩束势能强劲，产品+渠道+品牌多维成长 上美股份（02145.HK） 2024 年 10 月 06 日 投资评级：买入（首次） | --- | --- | |-------------------------|---------------| | 日期 | 2024/10/4 | | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 49.300 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 56.950/18.800 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 196.23 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 101.69 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 3.98 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 2.06 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 10.03 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Huazhu Group-S (01179) for the next 6 months [1] Financial Performance - Q2 2024 revenue reached RMB 6.15 billion, up 11.2% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.1 billion, increasing 5.1% YoY [1] - Operating profit margin improved to 25.6%, up 0.6 percentage points YoY [1] - Domestic hotel revenue grew 11.1% YoY to RMB 4.8 billion [1] - Deutsche Hospitality revenue increased 11.6% YoY to RMB 1.3 billion [1] - Direct-operated revenue rose 2.5% YoY to RMB 3.7 billion [1] - Franchise revenue surged 25.8% YoY to RMB 2.3 billion [1] Operational Metrics - Domestic RevPAR declined 2.0% YoY to RMB 244, with recovery rate at 118.4% compared to 2019 levels [1] - Domestic ADR decreased 3.0% YoY to RMB 296, representing 125% of 2019 levels [1] - Domestic occupancy rate improved 0.7 percentage points YoY to 82.6%, reaching 95.1% of 2019 levels [1] - Deutsche Hospitality RevPAR increased 4.5% YoY to €82, with recovery rate improving 17.2 percentage points to 115% [1] Expansion Strategy - Opened 572 new hotels in Q2 2024, including 567 domestic properties [1] - Achieved 64% of annual new hotel target in H1 2024 [1] - Total domestic hotel count reached 10,150, with 136 international properties [1] - Raised full-year new hotel guidance to 2,200 from previous 1,800 [1] Valuation and Outlook - Forecasts net profit of RMB 4.0/4.6/4.9 billion for 2024-2026 [1] - Current PE ratios stand at 24x/21x/20x for 2024-2026 [1] - Expects Q3 2024 revenue growth of 2%-5% [1] Industry Analysis - The company operates in the non-essential consumer sector, specifically tourism and leisure facilities [1] - Huazhu Group demonstrates leading scale advantages and operational efficiency in the hotel industry [1]