丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨常熟银行（601128.SH） [Table_Title] 营收增速领先，不良率环比回落 ——2025 年一季报点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 常熟银行 2025 年一季度营收增速 10.0%，归母净利润增速 13.8%，预计业绩增速继续保持行 业领先。一季度利息净收入增速 0.9%，利息收入增速放缓反映规模增速放缓和息差收窄。Q1 净息差 2.61%，较 2024 全年下降 10BP，息差绝对水平仍保持行业领先，预计未来存款成本继 续加速下行。一季度末不良率 0.76%，环比下降 1BP，拨备覆盖率 490%，环比下降 11pct， 拨备回落预计主要反映不良生成压力。预计随着前期部分风险客户的暴露逐步充分，同时持续 加大核销处置力度，结合扶持政策，今年不良生成率有望企稳回落。 分析师及联系人 research.95579.com [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 1 常熟银行（601128.S ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨中国银河（601881.SH） [Table_Title] 中国银河 2025 一季报点评：经纪业务随市高增， 自营投资韧性凸显 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年一季度，中国银河业绩维持较快增长。具体来看，经纪业务随市高增，融资业务市场份 额提升；债市震荡中投资收益亮眼，扩表节奏放缓；投行收入快速增长，债券承销份额持续提 升；看好公司作为头部央企券商，受益于扶优限劣与并购重组政策导向，同时投行及资管业务 在新管理层与新战略下有望继续发力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 戴永飞 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490524070001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 中国银河（601881.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 中国银河 2025 2] 一季报点评：经纪业务随市高 增，自营投资韧性凸显 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 中国银河发布 2025 一季报，报告期内实现营业收入 75.6 ...

公司点评 金盘科技（688676） 外销收入快速增长，数据中心新基建加速扩张 | 投资评级：买入（维持） | | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-05-04 | | 收盘价（元） | 31.88 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） 64.58/27.00 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 457 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 457 | | 流通股比例（%） | 100.00 | | 总市值（亿元） | 146 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 146 | 公司价格与沪深 300 走势比较 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 04-30 05-31 06-30 07-31 08-31 09-30 10-31 11-30 12-31 01-31 02-28 03-31 04-30 金盘科技 沪深300 外销收入快速增长，数据中心新基建加速扩张 公司 2024 年海外销售收入 19.81 亿元，同比增长 68.26%。非新能源领 域 2024 年实现营收 37.12 亿元，同比增长 31.02%，以数据中心为代表 的新基建重要基础设施运营及数字化工厂整体解决方案 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 13.673 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 791 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 762 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year change of -1%, +2%, and +2% respectively [2][4]. - In Q4 2024, the company is projected to generate revenue of 2.816 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 29 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 17 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of -10%, -57%, and -74% respectively [2][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company will consolidate results from COFCO Packaging, expecting revenue of 5.574 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 665 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 189 million yuan, indicating year-on-year growth of +57%, +138%, and -28% respectively [2][4]. Revenue Analysis - In Q1 2025, the company’s revenue increased by 57% post-consolidation, indicating strong synergy post-acquisition [10]. - The revenue for 2024 is expected to decline by 1%, with Q4 2024 experiencing a 10% drop, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival and clients completing annual targets [10]. - The revenue structure for 2024 shows that metal packaging products and services generated 12.123 billion yuan and 166 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of +0.70% and +9.95% [10]. Profitability Insights - The primary profit source is expected to be from three-piece cans, while two-piece cans are under pressure in the short term [10]. - In Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline by 74% and 28% respectively, with the main profit source being three-piece cans [10]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 is expected to decrease by 4.7 percentage points, primarily due to a price drop in two-piece cans [10]. Financial Health - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio increased to 65% in Q1 2025, indicating that debt management will be a key focus moving forward [10]. - The increase in short-term loans by 3.793 billion yuan is attributed to acquisition financing, while long-term loans increased by 3.489 billion yuan [10]. Market Position and Future Growth - The company is a leader in the domestic metal packaging industry, with a stable profit base from three-piece cans and potential growth from international expansion of two-piece can production [10]. - Future growth drivers include recovery in two-piece can margins, expansion into overseas markets, improvement in domestic consumption demand, and increased revenue from high-margin innovative products [10]. - The integration with COFCO Packaging is expected to enhance the competitive landscape and profitability of the two-piece can sector, with a target gross margin recovery to above 15% [10]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.41 billion yuan, 1.42 billion yuan, and 1.71 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10, 10, and 8 times [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 5.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 318 million yuan, down 16% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 281 million yuan, a decline of 14% year-on-year [2][4][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 318 million yuan, reflecting a 16% decrease year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 281 million yuan, down 14% year-on-year [2][4][9]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.65%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the improvement in gross margin from traditional core businesses [9]. Business Segments - Traditional core business (excluding M&G Technology) saw a revenue decline of 9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with specific product categories like writing tools, student stationery, and office supplies experiencing slight declines in revenue [9]. - M&G Technology continued to grow rapidly, with a revenue increase of 25% year-on-year in Q1 2025, and the net loss is expected to narrow compared to the previous year [9]. - Retail stores reported a revenue growth of 8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with specific brands like Jiumu showing an 11% increase in revenue [9]. Future Outlook - The company expects to see continued growth in overseas business and improvements in profitability from retail stores through the introduction of IP-derived products [9]. - Forecasted net profits for the years 2025 to 2027 are 1.54 billion yuan, 1.70 billion yuan, and 1.85 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 18, 16, and 15 times [9].

证 券 研 究 报 告 杭氧股份（002430）2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 业绩超预期，提质增效经营质量稳步提升 目标价：27.3 元 事项： 公司发布 2025 年一季度报告，2025 年一季度营业总收入 35.6 亿元，同比增长 7.85%，归母净利润 2.3 亿元，同比增长 10.82%，扣非归母净利润 2.2 亿元， 同比增长 13.81%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 13,716 | 15,103 | 17,318 | 19,483 | | 同比增速(%) | 149.3% | 10.1% | 14.7% | 12.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 922 | 1,076 | 1,336 | 1,579 | | 同比增速(%) | 298.2% | 16.7% | 24.1% | 18.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.94 | 1.09 | 1.36 | 1.60 | | 市盈 ...

关税对公司无太大影响，海外产能如期推进 公司报告 | 年报点评报告 源杰科技（688498） 证券研究报告 一季报扭亏，数通光芯片助收入连续 2 季度环比增长 1Q25 扭亏，收入连续 2 个季度环比增长 公司公布 24 年年报及 25 年一季报，24 年实现营业收入 2.52 亿元，同比 增长 75%，归母净利润-613 万元，同比减少 131%，符合业绩快报。1Q25 单季实现营业收入 8440 万元，同比增长 41%、环比增长 14%，归母净利润 1432 万元，同比增长 36%、环比扭亏。公司收入连续 2 个季度环比增长， 1Q25 实现扭亏，1Q 单季毛利率达到 44.6%，同比大幅提升 10pct，主要原 因是数通 CW 的持续发力。 数通光芯片出货放量，电信产品竞争加剧 24 年分产品看：1）数通中心及其他产品收入 4804 万元，而 23 年仅为 471 万元，收入贡献的主要增量来自硅光 CW 70mw 激光器、出货超过百万颗， 已成为公司新增长点，数通毛利率为 71%。2）电信市场产品收入 2.02 亿 元，同比增长 52%，毛利率 24.62%，同比减少 15.58pct，收入增长主要来 ...

日月股份（603218） 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评：Q1 收入 同比大幅增长，静待盈利拐点 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4656 | 4696 | 6037 | 6885 | 7436 | | 同比（%） | (4.30) | 0.87 | 28.56 | 14.05 | 8.00 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 481.51 | 623.81 | 904.31 | 1,055.28 | 1,159.08 | | 同比（%） | 39.84 | 29.55 | 44.97 | 16.69 | 9.84 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.47 | 0.61 | 0.88 | 1.02 | 1.12 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 25.45 | 19.64 | 13.55 | 11.61 | 10.57 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 中联重科（000157）2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 业绩符合预期，看好非挖和海外持续发力 目标价：9.3 元 事项： 公司发布 2025 年一季度报告，2025 年一季度营业总收入 121.2 亿元，同比增 长 2.92%，归母净利润 14.1 亿元，同比增长 53.98%，扣非归母净利润 8.7 亿 元，同比增长 12.40%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 45,478 | 51,433 | 59,023 | 68,743 | | 同比增速(%) | -3.4% | 13.1% | 14.8% | 16.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,520 | 5,034 | 6,051 | 7,267 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.4% | 43.0% | 20.2% | 20.1% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.41 | 0.58 | 0.70 | 0.84 | | 市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company reported strong profit performance in Q1 2025, with a significant increase in net profit by 110% year-on-year, reaching 320 million yuan [1] - The company is a leading publishing and distribution enterprise in Guangdong Province, with stable growth in core businesses such as educational materials and general books, while educational services are expected to become another growth driver [2] - The company has announced a record high dividend payout ratio of 61%, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [7] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, and a net profit of 280 million yuan, down 53.5% year-on-year [1] - For the full year 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 9.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 810 million yuan, down 36.9% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 2.11 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 320 million yuan, up 110% year-on-year [1][2] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.15 billion yuan, 1.19 billion yuan, and 1.25 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.28, 1.33, and 1.39 yuan [2] - The estimated operating revenue for 2025 is projected to be 9.83 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [9] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 17.92 yuan, based on a P/E ratio of 14 times for 2025 [2] - The company's current stock price is 16.49 yuan, with a market capitalization of 14.77 billion yuan [3]