Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Views - The current value of domestic demand is highlighted, with a focus on companies with strong financial reports and sustained fundamentals. New consumption trends favor snacks, while traditional consumption is recommended for companies showing signs of recovery. The report emphasizes the strategy of "fishing in the domestic demand safe haven" and suggests prioritizing leading companies in the industry [1][23] - The report indicates that the liquor sector is in a transitional year for 2025, with a focus on companies with good fundamentals or those undergoing effective reforms. The report also highlights investment opportunities in snack companies and seasonal stocking in the beer and beverage sectors [1][2] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently at a low point, with the first quarter potentially being the lowest of the year. The report recommends focusing on brands with strong momentum and reasonable growth targets. The report suggests that the current external uncertainties, such as tariffs, enhance the value of domestic demand for liquor, potentially leading to a structural bull market in the sector [2][23] - Key recommendations include high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as regional brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu. The report also emphasizes the importance of "momentum continuation" and "low base recovery" strategies [2][23] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a rebound, with a focus on snack companies benefiting from category dividends and new product launches in membership stores. The report continues to recommend seasonal stocking in the beer and beverage sectors, highlighting investment opportunities driven by retail transformation and cost cycles [1][27] - Recommended stocks include Salted Fish, Yili, Wanchen Group, Dongpeng Beverage, Qingdao Beer (A+H), Three Squirrels, and others [1][27] Performance Metrics - The liquor industry saw a revenue growth of 7.7% and a net profit growth of 7.56% in 2024. In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue growth of 1.8% and a net profit growth of 2.25%. The report suggests that the industry is currently in a bottom adjustment phase, with leading companies successfully navigating pressure tests [7][19] - Specific company performance includes Kweichow Moutai achieving a revenue of 514.43 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a growth of 10.67%, and a net profit of 268.47 billion yuan, a growth of 11.56% [17] Market Trends - The report notes that the overall valuation of the food and beverage industry has adjusted, with the industry trading at 21.79 times earnings. The liquor sector's valuation is at 19.69 times, while beer and wine are at 27.67 and 74.88 times, respectively [39] - The report also tracks price trends for key liquor brands, indicating stability in prices for Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [22][54]

丨2025年5月6日 星期二丨 每经记者 熊嘉楠 每经编辑 彭水萍 点评：今世缘上述调整体现了公司优化资源配置、提升管理效率的战略意图。结合其业绩的稳健表现， 可以看出此次调整有助于进一步巩固其在白酒行业的市场地位。对白酒板块而言，此举可能引发其他企 业对组织优化的关注，提升行业整体管理效率。 第三，酒业上市公司具备良好的行业政策导向。"国家队"资金长期配置方向代表着政策层对所在行业的 战略性支持，因此酒业上市公司在参与国家重大项目建设方面具有一定的先发优势，能够更好地享受政 策红利、抓住发展机遇。 第四，酒业上市公司具有良好的公司治理水平。"国家队"作为重要股东，会积极参与上市公司的治理， 对公司的经营管理进行监督，促使上市公司完善治理结构，规范公司的决策程序和信息披露制度，提高 公司治理水平和透明度。因此，有"国家队"深度入股的上市公司在公司治理水平上一定处于"高段位"。 点评："国家队"重仓酒业龙头股彰显对行业长期投资价值的认可。此举料将增强资本市场对酒业股的信 心，吸引更多资金流入。对酒业板块而言，这将提升板块整体估值水平，尤其是龙头企业。对股市整体 而言，表明"国家队"对消费类蓝筹股的青睐，有望稳定 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 met expectations, with total revenue and net profit for 2024 reaching 115.46 billion and 34.12 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.31% and 8.80% [10] - The company is currently in a phase of significant growth, with strong performance in both domestic and international markets, particularly in the high-end segment [10] - The company aims for a total revenue growth of 5%-12% and a net profit increase slightly lower than revenue growth for 2025, indicating confidence in sustained momentum [10] Revenue Growth - In 2024, the revenue growth rates for domestic and international markets were 13.32% and 27.37% respectively, with the proportion of international revenue increasing by 1.73 percentage points [2] - For Q1 2025, the revenue growth rates were 8.45% for domestic and 19.04% for international markets, with the international revenue share rising by 1.38 percentage points [2] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 74.74% and 29.55%, showing a slight decline of 3.60 and 1.50 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Operating cash flow increased by 2.37% in 2024 and by 42.5% in Q1 2025, indicating strong cash flow performance [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue growth forecasts for 2025-2027 are 9.1%, 9.6%, and 9.7% respectively, with net profit growth rates of 7.9%, 9.4%, and 9.5% [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.95, 3.23, and 3.54 yuan per share, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.05, 14.67, and 13.40 [4]

证券代码：603369 证券简称：今世缘 公告编号：2025-017 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 第五届董事会第十三次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第五届董事会第十三次会议于 2025年5月3日以通讯表决方式召开，会议通知已于2025年4月30日以电子邮件、专人送 达或电话通知等方式发出。本次会议应参与表决董事11人，实际参与表决董事11人，会 议的召开程序符合《公司法》及公司《章程》的要求。本次会议由董事长顾祥悦先生主 持，会议审议并作出如下决议： 一、审议通过了《关于公司部分组织架构优化调整的议案》 为更好地保障公司发展战略的顺利实施，进一步强化内部管理，整合资源配置，提 高公司管理水平和运营效率，根据实际生产经营需要，对公司部分组织架构优化与调整。 成立客户关系管理部，负责公司层面会员运营、大客户开发及管理，大服务体系建设工 作；撤销战略研究部，公司层面的战略研究工作划入企管部，市场分析、竞争策略研究 工作划入销售部。 表决结果：11 票赞成， ...

投资建议 白酒板块：本周年季报业绩期收官，整体而言：白酒板块 24 年年报及 25 年一季报的兑现度均较为不错，绝大多数酒 企的表观业绩高度契合市场预期。在当下白酒行业景气度仍有所承压的背景下，一方面市场期待酒企能发挥其品牌/ 渠道/组织等优越性，积极紧抓消费需求、拼抢巩固自身市场份额；另一方面，市场亦深知欲速则不达，只有基本面 底盘企稳、酒企方能伴随景气上行而厚积薄发。因此，业绩的平稳兑现已是行业磨底期酒企交出的不错答卷。 当下已至白酒消费淡季，酒企的营销重心也逐步倾斜至流通渠道稳价盘、团购商务做客情、宴席聚饮抢需求。从目前 的动销反馈来看，宴席场景动销普遍反馈可圈可点、部分区域因民俗因素致使今年宴席有所回补，但团购商务、聚饮 动销仍较承压。考虑到春糖后外部贸易环境等不确定性进一步提升，我们预计短期白酒行业动销或仍处于小幅回落的 磨底状态，拐点仍待促内需、顺周期相关政策落地后从需求端曳引。 目前我们维持行业景气度仍处于下行趋缓阶段的判断，类似上一轮周期中 14 年下半年至 15 年，该时期行业景气度不 再断崖式回落、尤其淡季动销绝对量占比相对较低，但需求侧仍缺乏足够强的拉力。考虑产业层面已处于磨底阶段， 白 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 57.29 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 17 times the earnings for 2025 [3][11]. Core Views - Short-term growth is under pressure, but the company is expected to achieve healthy long-term growth [2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward for 2025-2026 while raising gross margin and expense ratios [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.37 CNY, 3.91 CNY, and 4.46 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 6,771 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 23.0%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to be 7,344 million CNY, reflecting an 8.5% growth [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 2,282 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 33.9%. The forecast for 2024 is 2,589 million CNY, a growth of 13.4% [8]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 73.9%, up from 71.0% in 2023, indicating an improvement in profitability [10][8]. Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, the company expects mid-to-high-end liquor revenue to reach 57.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. However, ordinary liquor revenue is projected to decline by 6.5% to 12.9 billion CNY [10]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 20.5 billion CNY, down 12.3% year-on-year, primarily due to an earlier Spring Festival and weak consumer demand [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a total of 1,379 distributors as of Q1 2025, indicating stable channel management [10]. - The company’s regional performance shows that domestic market revenue is 50.9 billion CNY, growing by 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province is 19.1 billion CNY, with a modest growth of 1.3% [10].

Core Insights - The white liquor industry is experiencing intensified structural differentiation and competition, with a focus on self-transformation and finding new opportunities amidst deep adjustments [1] - In 2024, the production volume of white liquor from 989 large-scale enterprises in China is projected to be 4.145 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while sales revenue is expected to reach 796.384 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1] - The industry is characterized by strong concentration, with leading brands and regions playing a crucial role in market dynamics [1] Industry Overview - The white liquor market is undergoing a reshuffle, with a clear trend of strong concentration and differentiation, leading to fierce competition among top brands [1][15] - Major brands are innovating their marketing strategies and product offerings to adapt to changing consumer demands and market conditions [15][23] Market Dynamics - In key markets like Henan, Jiangsu, and Shandong, leading brands dominate the sales landscape, with significant market shares held by top players such as Moutai and Wuliangye [4][5][6] - The competitive landscape varies by region, with local brands often struggling against national brands in markets like Henan and Guangdong [4][8][9] Brand Strategies - Wuliangye is focusing on expanding its market presence through innovative product launches and targeted marketing strategies aimed at various consumption scenarios [16] - Moutai is enhancing its brand image through cultural marketing and customer engagement initiatives, aiming to adapt to the evolving consumer landscape [17] - Luzhou Laojiao is implementing a dual-brand strategy to enhance market penetration and consumer experience [18] - Shanxi Fenjiu is emphasizing quality and cultural heritage in its marketing approach to strengthen brand loyalty [19][20] - Yanghe is leveraging cultural events and sponsorships to enhance brand visibility and market share [21] Future Outlook - The white liquor industry is expected to continue evolving, with leading companies focusing on innovation, market expansion, and adapting to consumer preferences [23] - The emphasis on quality, cultural relevance, and consumer engagement will be critical for brands to maintain competitiveness in a rapidly changing market [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 57.29 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 17 times the earnings for 2025 [3][11]. Core Views - Short-term growth is under pressure, but the company is expected to achieve healthy long-term growth [2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward for 2025-2026 while raising gross margin and expense ratios [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.37 CNY, 3.91 CNY, and 4.46 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 6,771 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 23.0%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to be 7,344 million CNY, reflecting an 8.5% growth [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 2,282 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 33.9%. The forecast for 2024 is 2,589 million CNY, a growth of 13.4% [8]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 73.9%, up from 71.0% in 2023, indicating an improvement in profitability [10][8]. Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, the company expects mid-to-high-end liquor revenue to reach 57.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. However, ordinary liquor revenue is projected to decline by 6.5% to 12.9 billion CNY [10]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 20.5 billion CNY, down 12.3% year-on-year, primarily due to an earlier Spring Festival and weak consumer demand [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a total of 1,379 distributors as of Q1 2025, indicating stable channel management [10]. - The company’s regional performance shows that domestic market revenue is 50.9 billion CNY, growing by 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province is 19.1 billion CNY, with a modest growth of 1.3% [10].

| 节前一起 | 2016/4/20 | 2017/4/19 | 2018/4/18 | 2019/4/19 | 2020/4/21 | 2021/4/21 | 2022/4/20 | 2023/4/19 | 2024/4/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2016/5/1 | 2017/5/1 | 2018/5/1 | 2019/5/1 | 2020/5/1 | 2021/5/1 | 2022/5/1 | 2023/5/1 | 2024/5/1 | | TOP1 | 食品饮料 | 非银行金融 | 医药 | 食品饮料 | 消费者服务 | 医药 | 食品饮料 | 传媒 | 房地产 | | TOP2 | 银行 | 电子 | 煤炭 | 农林牧渔 | 银行 | 电新 | 家电 | 建筑 | 医药 | | TOP3 | 家电 | 银行 | 钢铁 | 银行 | 家电 | 有色金属 | 建筑 | 纺织服装 | 综合金融 | | TOP4 | 煤炭 | 家电 | 银行 | 非银行金融 | 食品饮料 | 消费者服务 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 11.55 billion and a net profit of 3.41 billion for 2024, showing year-on-year growth of 14.3% and 8.8% respectively, despite a decline in Q4 2024 due to proactive inventory control [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company experienced a revenue and net profit decline of 7.6% and 34.8% year-on-year due to increased inventory control [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.1 billion and a net profit of 1.64 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.2% and 7.3% respectively [1] - The total cash return for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 was 7.66 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [1] Group 2: Sales and Product Performance - The company saw a 19.5% increase in sales volume for 2024, while the average price per ton decreased by 4.4%, indicating a shift towards more cost-effective products [2] - Revenue from different product categories in 2024 showed growth, with the top-tier products (特A+类) achieving a revenue of 7.49 billion, up 15.2% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the top-tier products experienced a slowdown in growth, with year-on-year increases of 6.6% for 特A+类 and 17.4% for 特A类 [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The company experienced significant growth in the Jiangsu province, with revenue increases of 21.2% in the Suzhong market for 2024 [3] - The number of distributors increased by 114 in the province and 53 outside the province in 2024, indicating a strengthening distribution network [3] - By the end of Q1 2025, the company had 636 distributors in the province and 613 outside, with a focus on key markets and core customers [3] Group 4: Cost and Profitability - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 was 74.7%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower prices and higher costs [4] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 29.6%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous year [4] - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin was 73.6%, reflecting a slight decline of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a strong competitive advantage and continues to be recommended for investment despite some performance pressures due to proactive inventory management [5] - The EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 2.97, 3.17, and 3.48 respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to a 16x PE for 2025 [5]