伦敦金属交易所（LME）2月5日伦铜最新库存量报180575公吨，较上个交易日增加1925公吨，涨幅 1.08%。 长江铜业网讯：悲观氛围持续蔓延，市场厌恶情绪急剧升温，叠加贵金属板块重挫，沪铜跟随金银走 软。今日沪铜主力 2603 合约早盘低开，开盘价 99540 元/吨，跌 2960 元，触及最低位97920元/吨。 宏观层面，美国就业市场形势严峻。1 月雇主宣布裁员人数达 10.8 万，同比增 118%，环比 12 月增 205%，新招聘计划仅 5300 人，为 2009 年以来最低值。全球市场竞争加剧及 AI 科技革命，使传统行业 私人部门就业规模收缩，可能影响美国一季度居民消费支出，拖累经济增长。昨夜金银价格大跌拖累伦 铜走势，全球最大白银杠杆 ETF 大规模抛售白银，向拥挤的市场释放抛压，短期贵金属底部难寻，需 待杠杆资金风险降温后市场回归合理估值。美股周四大幅收跌，科技股领跌；国际油价周四跌近 3%， 布伦特原油期货收于每桶 67.55 美元，美国原油收于每桶 63.29 美元，进一步挫伤市场风险情绪，铜价 面临较大利空压力。 产业端传来消息，两家矿业巨头潜在合并交易期限临近，力拓坚持合并后董事 ...

Core Viewpoint - The merger plan between global mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore, valued at $260 billion, has been officially abandoned after weeks of negotiations failed to reach consensus on key terms, marking the third failed attempt at merging the two companies [1]. Group 1: Merger Details - Rio Tinto has decided not to pursue further discussions with Glencore after determining that an agreement would not create value for shareholders [3]. - Glencore criticized the proposed terms from Rio Tinto, claiming they undervalued Glencore's contribution to the merged entity and did not adequately assess the value of Glencore's copper business and growth plans [3]. - The merger discussions have been ongoing for over a decade, with initial talks dating back to the period before the 2008 global financial crisis [4]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Glencore's stock price dropped by as much as 10.8% during trading, making it the largest decliner in the FTSE 100 index for that day, while Rio Tinto's stock fell by 1.4% [3]. - According to UK takeover rules, Rio Tinto is prohibited from making any acquisition offers to Glencore for the next six months without approval from the takeover panel [3]. Group 3: Industry Context - The potential merger aimed to create a leading advantage in key metals such as iron ore, copper, cobalt, and lithium, which are essential for the production of technology products and support the development of the artificial intelligence industry [5]. - The global copper market is currently experiencing significant attention due to price volatility, with copper prices recently surpassing $14,000 per ton, and analysts predicting a potential supply gap of 10 million tons by 2040 [5].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 06 日 铜：情绪悲观，价格承压 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 100,980 | -3.97% | 101130 | 0.15% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 12,855 | -1.42% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 587,802 | 115,881 | 599,957 | -17,292 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 30,234 | 3,912 | 324,000 | -8,112 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 160,679 | 907 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 180,575 | 1,925 | 11.05% | -1.78 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260206 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外风险偏好降幅，A 股缩量普跌 海外方面，美国开年就业走弱线索增多：①最新初请失业金人数升至 23.1 万人，预期 21.2 万人，受极端天气扰动短期跳升；②12 月 JOLTS 职位空缺降至 654.2 万个，预期 720 万个，创 2020 年 9 月以来新低，且不同规模企业普遍回落，部分反映企业在 AI 提效背景下 对新增岗位需求趋谨慎。欧洲央行 2 月议息会议如期按兵不动，其认为通胀与增长判断基本 稳定、中期通胀仍回归 2%、经济路径与去年 12 月预测一致。行长拉加德认为形势"总体平 衡"，在承认外部不确定性的同时，重申政策立场稳健，短期暂无调整必要。在就业数据走 弱与海外 AI 叙事担忧共振下，市场风险偏好持续收缩：美股普遍下跌超 1%，VIX 抬升；贵 金属再度调整，黄金跌近 4%、白银回撤约 20%；美元指数上探 98 关口，资金转向避险的美 债，10Y 利率回落至 4.17%。原定于本周五晚公布的非农数据推迟至下周三发布，重要 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fell to 101,130 yuan, with a low of 99,850 yuan, while London copper dropped to around 12,850 USD [4][17] - Macroeconomic sentiment is neutral to bearish, with a significant increase in initial jobless claims in the US and job vacancies hitting a new low since 2020, leading to pessimistic market sentiment [4][17] - The fundamentals are neutral, with an increase in copper warehouse receipts by 907 tons to 160,000 tons on the Shanghai exchange and a rise in LME copper inventory by 1,925 tons to 180,000 tons [4][17] - Recent macroeconomic cooling and expectations of a strong dollar are putting pressure on copper prices, but global efforts to accelerate mineral resource reserves provide bottom support for prices [4][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel prices are under pressure due to a global decline in major asset classes, with supply constraints from the Philippines and Indonesia affecting the market [5][18] - The stainless steel market faces oversupply pressure, with limited terminal demand, although suppliers are showing a strong willingness to maintain prices due to lower arrivals and strong cost support [5][18] - The operational strategy for nickel and stainless steel suggests a range trading approach, with Shanghai nickel expected to trade between 125,000 and 145,000 yuan per ton [6][19] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market saw a slight rebound in alumina futures, with current prices stabilizing due to temporary production halts at a major alumina plant [20][21] - Recent transactions of alumina from Australia indicate a slight price increase, with offshore prices at 310 USD/ton for East Australia and 313 USD/ton for West Australia [20][21] - The operational strategy for aluminum suggests a range trading approach, with the Shanghai aluminum contract expected to trade between 23,000 and 24,000 yuan per ton [22] Group 4: Zinc and Lead Market - Zinc prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, influenced by poor US employment data and a lackluster equity market [23][24] - The supply side for lead remains tight, although some previously shut-down smelters are resuming operations, leading to a relatively loose spot supply [24] - The operational strategy for lead suggests a range trading approach, with the Shanghai lead contract expected to trade between 16,500 and 17,500 yuan per ton [24] Group 5: Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing a broad decline due to cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials and negative market sentiment [14][26] - The short-term outlook for precious metals is pressured by a neutral to hawkish stance from the US government and the Federal Reserve, impacting expectations for a weaker dollar [14][26] - The operational strategy for gold suggests holding long positions, while silver, platinum, and palladium should be observed for market movements [14][26]

Market Summary - On February 6, US stock markets closed lower, with the Dow Jones dropping nearly 600 points and the S&P 500 erasing its gains for the year. Tech stocks led the decline, with significant drops in companies like Alphabet and Qualcomm. Additionally, January saw the highest number of planned layoffs since 2009, and job openings fell to the lowest level since 2020 [2][3] - In the top 20 stocks by trading volume, Amazon is expected to have capital expenditures of $200 billion this year, significantly exceeding market expectations. Other notable movements included Nvidia, Google, Tesla, and Microsoft, all experiencing declines due to various industry news and earnings reports [2][3] Macro Summary - The US and Iran are set to hold nuclear negotiations in Oman, with the White House indicating that military options remain on the table. The talks are seen as crucial, although there are significant differences in agendas between the two parties [7][8] - The US labor market shows signs of cooling, with job openings unexpectedly dropping to 6.542 million in December, below the expected 7.25 million. This decline reflects a cautious hiring environment, with layoffs increasing primarily in the transportation and warehousing sectors [13][14] Commodity Market - Oil prices fell due to eased tensions regarding US-Iran talks, with Brent crude and WTI both experiencing significant declines. This drop follows a previous rise, indicating market volatility influenced by geopolitical developments [4][30] - COMEX gold futures dropped by 3.08%, while silver futures saw a more significant decline of 16.64%. These movements reflect changes in market sentiment and supply-demand dynamics [5][30] Company-Specific Developments - Amazon's projected capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to reach $200 billion, far exceeding the market's forecast of $144.67 billion. This increase is attributed to strong demand for AI infrastructure, although the company faces capacity constraints [13] - SpaceX's Starlink is anticipated to expand into new markets, although CEO Elon Musk denied reports of developing a Starlink mobile phone. Starlink is a significant revenue source for SpaceX, contributing to a substantial portion of its overall earnings [14][15] - Anthropic released a new AI model for financial research, which has led to declines in financial service stocks. This model is part of a broader trend where AI companies are increasingly targeting enterprise clients [16]

Market Overview - US employment data shows weakness, leading to a decline in US stocks, with all three major indices dropping over 1% and small-cap stocks leading the decline, as the Russell 2000 fell by 1.8% [2] - The S&P 500 saw declines in 9 out of 11 major sectors, with software stocks ETF dropping by 5%, Oracle down nearly 7%, and Microsoft down nearly 5% [2] - Cryptocurrency and silver experienced significant drops, with Bitcoin falling by 12% to below $63,000, marking a nearly 50% decline since last October [4] Bond Market - Risk aversion has driven US Treasury yields significantly lower, with the 10-year yield dropping by 9 basis points to 4.19% and the 2-year yield also down by 9 basis points to 3.46%, reaching a near one-month low [3] Commodity Market - Gold prices fell by 4% to $4,763.2 per ounce, while silver plummeted by 19% to around $70.84 per ounce [12] - WTI crude oil prices dropped approximately 2.84% to $63.29 per barrel [12] Company News - Foxconn (Hon Hai) reported January sales of NT$730 billion, a 35.5% year-on-year increase, reflecting strong demand for AI infrastructure [17] - Meituan has acquired Dingdong Maicai, indicating consolidation in the Chinese e-commerce market [18] Employment Data - The US JOLTS job openings for December hit a five-year low, significantly below expectations, indicating a cooling labor market [19] - Challenger companies announced layoffs of 108,435 in January, the highest for the month since 2009, with a 205% month-on-month increase [19] Central Bank Actions - The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 3.75%, with a close 5-4 vote indicating a strong signal for potential rate cuts [21] - The European Central Bank held rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, citing challenges in predicting inflation [20] Technology Sector - Amazon's Q4 revenue grew by 14%, with AWS revenue exceeding expectations, but the company’s stock fell over 10% post-earnings due to high capital expenditure guidance of $200 billion for the year [22] - Nvidia announced delays in releasing new gaming chips due to a shortage of storage chips, prioritizing AI business needs [22] AI Developments - Anthropic launched a financial research AI model, causing significant drops in stock prices for traditional financial information services like FactSet and Reuters [23] - OpenAI introduced its enterprise-level AI agent platform, Frontier, aimed at automating business processes, amidst growing competition in the AI space [24]

Market Overview - The software sector and cryptocurrency experienced a significant downturn, with the S&P 500 index falling by 1.23% to 6798.4 points, the Nasdaq Composite down 1.59% to 22540.59 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreasing by 1.2% to 48908.72 points, marking the worst three-day sell-off since April of the previous year [1][3] - Bitcoin dropped below $64,000, losing nearly half its value over the past six months, while spot silver saw a single-day decline of nearly 20% [1] Employment Data Impact - The recent weak U.S. employment data has halted the recent sector rotation, with 318 stocks in the S&P 500 declining. December job openings unexpectedly fell to the lowest level since 2020, and the number of layoffs reached the highest January level since the severe recession in 2009 [3] - Allianz's Chief Economic Advisor, Mohamed El-Erian, noted that layoffs are occurring despite GDP growth of approximately 4%, indicating a decoupling of employment from economic growth, which could have profound economic, political, and social implications [3] Company-Specific Developments - Amazon's stock plummeted over 10% after announcing a capital expenditure forecast of $200 billion for the year, significantly higher than the previous year's $130 billion and analyst expectations of $150 billion, which negatively impacted its profit guidance [3] - Nvidia's stock fell by 1.33%, while other major tech companies like Apple, Google, and Microsoft also saw declines, with Microsoft down 4.95% and Amazon down 4.42% [6] AI and Software Sector - The software sector faced pressure following the release of a new flagship model by AI company Anthropic, contributing to a broader sell-off in AI-related stocks. FaceSet dropped 7.21%, reaching its lowest point since March 2020, while Thomson Reuters fell over 5%, hitting a new low since 2021 [6] - Amid concerns over AI capital expenditures, some supply chain stocks performed well, such as Tianhong Technology, which rose 6.9% due to Google's $185 billion capital expenditure guidance [6] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks showed resilience, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 0.9%. Notable performances included NIO up 5.86% and Baidu up 0.73%, while Alibaba and JD.com saw slight declines [7] Other Industry News - Pandora, the world's largest jewelry company, surged 16.83% after announcing plans to reduce reliance on pure silver by introducing platinum-plated jewelry in response to rising silver prices [8] - The proposed merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore to form the world's largest mining group collapsed, with Glencore citing undervaluation of its contribution to the merger [9] - Nvidia announced delays in the release of its RTX 50 series graphics cards due to memory shortages, prioritizing AI chip production instead [10] - Hims & Hers Health plans to launch a cheaper generic version of the oral weight loss drug semaglutide, causing a significant drop in the stock price of Novo Nordisk, which had just received approval for its brand product [11]

芝商所上调黄金、白银期货保证金比例 美国1月计划裁员数量激增，创17年来当月最高水平 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 泽连斯基：下一轮乌美俄三方会谈可能在美国进行 欧洲央行维持三大利率不变 英国央行以一票之差维持利率不变 世界黄金协会：1月全球黄金ETF流入创纪录的187亿美元资金 工业和信息化部等八部门关于印发《中药工业高质量发展实施方案（2026—2030年）》的通知 美团：拟7.17亿美元收购叮咚买菜 市场盘点 周四，美元指数持续站稳脚跟，盘中一度逼近98关口，创近两周新高，最终收涨0.34%，报97.96；基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.182%，对美联储政策利率 敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.455%。 贵金属遭重挫，现货黄金开盘后急速下跌，并一度失守4800美元，随后又反弹超100美元，但在美盘时段金价继续震荡下跌，再度跌破4800大关，最终收跌 3.73%，报4779.41美元/盎司；现货白银在亚盘时段一度重挫10美元，随后陷入震荡，但在美盘时段继续扩大跌幅，并跌至70美元关口附 ...

1 、 2026 年全国服务消费和服务贸易工作会议在京召开。 会议强调，当前消费结构加快从商品消费主导向服务消费主导转变，要培育 服务消费新增长点，鼓励支持服务出口，创新发展数字贸易。 2 、 商务部公布数据显示， 2025 年我国服务贸易进出口总额 80823.1 亿元，同比增长 7.4% ，服务贸易逆差减少 3439.5 亿元。 旅 行服务增长较快，进出口达 22067 亿元，增长 7.6% 。 3 、国家网信办等十一部门联合出台 14 条工作举措，提升境外人员入境数字化服务便利性，到 2027 年， 居住、医疗、支付、旅游、 公共服务等领域的数字化应用服务堵点基本打通、应用场景全面拓展。 • 海南自贸港岛内居民消费进境商品免税额度为每人每年 1 万元 • AI 热潮退烧、疲软就业数据冲击美股， 三大指数跌逾 1% • 市场陷入"信心危机"， 贵金属再遭抛售，比特币跌破 7 万美元 • " AI 编程大战"打响， OpenAI 与 Anthropic 同步发布新模型 • A 股 2026 年春节休市安排公布 •亚马逊最新财报出炉， 今年支出指引"爆表"盘后股价大跌 1 、 财政部、海关总署、税务总局联合发 ...