Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Weekly Report - Report Date: January 12, 2026 - Company: Zhongtai Futures Co., Ltd. - Analyst: Gao Ping - Analyst Qualification Number: F3002581 - Transaction Consultation License Number: Z0012806 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The current logic is that the trading sentiment in the spot market has weakened. With the successive registration of new warehouse receipts and the price reaching the hedging point for European softwood pulp multiple times, the futures market is facing pressure from hedging positions. - On the basis of stable fundamentals, the strong price support from the forward overseas market still provides support for domestic pulp spot and forward prices, limiting the downside space of the futures market. - In the long - term, the overseas shipments in January are still decreasing, and there is no significant pressure on short - term arrivals. After the simultaneous increase in futures and spot prices, the spot trading has slightly weakened. As the futures price rises and reaches the risk - free hedging position for some European and Canadian softwood pulp again, and with the successive registration of new warehouse receipts, upward pressure may emerge. Although the fundamentals have improved, there are no actual factors to drive up the price. - Pulp sentiment remains for now, and it may maintain a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. However, if contradictions in the real - world market gradually accumulate (such as the port inventory turning to accumulation, new warehouse receipts being registered successively, and spot trading weakening) or the macro - sentiment weakens, pulp may shift to a weakly volatile trend. - Strategy recommendation: The commodity sector is improving, and there are still risks in the energy and chemical market due to international situations and macro - factors. It is recommended to wait and see during the day. If the spot price is stable and one holds deliverable forward goods at a suitable cost, one can choose to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 05 contract at high prices to meet the risk - free hedging needs at high levels [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1 Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Domestic production: The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp remained basically stable this week. The price of domestic hardwood pulp increased by 150 yuan/ton, but the spot price was stable, and the market had sufficient spot supply. - Import: In November 2025, China's pulp imports were 324.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.0% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The cumulative annual imports were 3292.5 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The shipments of softwood and hardwood pulp from pulp - producing countries to China rebounded in November, and it is estimated that the domestic arrivals in January will increase month - on - month [7]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: Downstream production was stable, with no obvious demand - side drivers. The maintenance equipment for coated paper has resumed normal production, and the production of coated paper has increased slightly. - Inventory: As the spot price became firmer and the downstream replenishment came to an end with reduced willingness, the port inventory gradually shifted to accumulation. Under the high price of far - month contracts, there were hedging opportunities for some low - priced European softwood pulp, and the warehouse receipts in the contracts have increased successively. The downstream finished - product inventory is in a state of shock adjustment [9]. 1.3 Price and Spread - Price: The overseas quotation increased, the spot price of hardwood pulp remained firm with relatively tight market liquidity, and the futures price was also firm. The price of softwood pulp was firm, but the buying demand was weak, and the demand was average. After the large - scale replenishment by major manufacturers ended, the spot trading weakened slightly, but the price remained relatively firm. The trading sentiment in the spot market weakened, and with the successive registration of new warehouse receipts and the price reaching the hedging point for European softwood pulp multiple times, the futures market was facing pressure from hedging positions. The finished - product price remained stable, and there were no price increase notices. - Spread: The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp continued to shrink to a relatively low level, which may drive the digestion of old softwood pulp. The far - month futures price continued to strengthen, and the spread shrank. The futures price corrected, the spot price remained stable, and the basis strengthened [11]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - Cost: The cost of domestic pulp remained stable, and the cost of imported pulp increased due to the increase in overseas prices. - Profit: The profit of domestic pulp is expected to rise slightly. The profit of imported pulp is expected to be further compressed due to the increase in overseas prices. The raw material cost of paper continued to rise. Although the finished - product price also increased, the profit was still affected [13]. Part 2 Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly pulp balance sheet from January 2025 to January 2026, including data on imports, domestic production, total supply, pulp consumption, factory inventory, apparent demand, and inventory (including port inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and total inventory) [19]. Part 3 Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The global pulp shipment volume is analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the text. - Demand and Inventory: The apparent demand and inventory in Europe are analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the text. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Analyzes various aspects of supply, including pulp imports, softwood pulp imports, hardwood pulp imports, softwood pulp imports by country, imports of chemimechanical pulp and unbleached pulp, and imports of softwood and hardwood chips, and provides historical data from 2022 - 2025 [33][37][40]. - Demand: Analyzes pulp apparent demand and downstream finished - product paper (including toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard), and provides information on the planned production capacity of some paper mills [73][88]. - Inventory: Analyzes pulp total inventory, including the sum of port inventory and warehouse receipt inventory [117]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - Analyzes the import cost and profit of pulp and the production cost and profit of domestic pulp [125][128]. Part 5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - Analyzes pulp overseas quotations, spot price seasonality, spot spread seasonality, basis, and the seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread of the SP main contract [132][137][141]

Group 1: A-Share Market Focus - The export growth for 2025 is expected to reach 5.3%, supported by resilient non-US exports and a potential easing of US tariffs [10][12][11] - The appreciation of the RMB is driven by several factors, including lower-than-expected US inflation data, which has increased market expectations for future Fed rate cuts [13][14] - Key sectors to watch include those sensitive to RMB appreciation, such as aviation, gas, and paper industries, which historically show significant stock price elasticity during appreciation phases [19][14] Group 2: US Market Focus - Economic growth in the US is projected to slow in the first half of 2026, influenced by factors such as the end of preemptive consumption and a slowdown in capital expenditures related to AI [31][35] - The K-shaped recovery in the US economy indicates that high-income consumers are driving growth, while lower-income consumers face increasing financial strain [35][31] - The upcoming Fed leadership change may influence monetary policy, with potential for further rate cuts depending on the new chair's stance [36][41] Group 3: Oil Market Focus - The impact of recent events in Venezuela on oil prices is expected to be limited in the short term, with US oil companies likely to benefit first [49][51] - Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves globally but ranks 22nd in production, indicating challenges in translating reserves into output [53]

供需趋宽松，造纸承压，上行乏力 银河化工 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 第一部分综合分析与交易策略 第二部分核心逻辑分析 第三部分周度数据跟踪 GALAXYFUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 目录 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 【综合分析】 【逻辑分析】 【策略】 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 纸浆：市场延续供大于求格局，供应端，进口量稳定，国产阔叶浆、化机浆产量小幅波动，港口库存累库至 200.7 万吨，青岛港等多数港口库存呈 增长趋势。需求端，生活用纸、白卡纸等品类消费量 ...

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 1月12日，截止午间收盘，中证500价值ETF华夏（159617）涨0.36%，报1.406元，成交额29.97万元。中 证500价值ETF华夏（159617）重仓股方面，中创智领截止午盘跌1.85%，中国外运跌0.32%，雅戈尔跌 0.40%，韵达股份跌0.14%，太阳纸业跌1.27%，隧道股份跌0.31%，九州通跌0.38%，环旭电子跌 2.21%，浙江龙盛涨0.09%，浙富控股跌0.88%。 中证500价值ETF华夏（159617）业绩比较基准为中证智选500价值稳健策略指数收益率，管理人为华夏 基金管理有限公司，基金经理为荣膺，成立（2022-06-09）以来回报为40.57%，近一个月回报为 5.46%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth of industrial enterprises in Shandong Province, indicating a positive trend in the industrial sector with a year-on-year increase in the number of enterprises [1]. Group 1: Company Information - Listed companies mentioned include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源), New潮 Energy (新潮能源), Taishan Petroleum (泰山石油), and others, totaling 16 companies [1]. - The report provides insights into the industrial cloud market in China, with a focus on investment opportunities from 2026 to 2032 [1]. Group 2: Industry Statistics - As of January-November 2025, Shandong Province had 41,271 industrial enterprises, an increase of 1,386 compared to the same period last year, representing a growth rate of 3.47% [1]. - The proportion of Shandong's industrial enterprises accounts for 7.85% of the national total [1]. - The threshold for scale industrial enterprises was raised from an annual main business income of 5 million to 20 million yuan starting in 2011 [1].

Core Insights - The surface sizing agents play a crucial role in enhancing the performance of paper products, with a nearly 100% retention rate, significantly reducing material loss and costs compared to internal sizing agents [1][7] - The market size for China's paper surface sizing agents is projected to reach 5.52 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase, driven by rising demands for surface performance in cultural, packaging, and corrugated papers [1][6] - The global market for paper surface sizing agents is expected to grow from 1.09 billion USD in 2024 to 1.114 billion USD in 2025, influenced by the increasing standards for water resistance, oil resistance, and surface strength in packaging and specialty papers [6][10] Industry Overview - Paper surface sizing agents are additives used to enhance the surface strength of paper and prevent liquid penetration, primarily categorized into internal and surface sizing agents [3][4] - Surface sizing agents, mainly composed of styrene-ester copolymers, improve the cross-linking strength and hydrophobicity of paper coatings, offering advantages such as mechanical stability and reduced foaming [3][4] - The demand for surface sizing agents is expected to grow as consumer requirements for paper performance increase, with China being the largest producer and consumer of paper globally [4][6] Market Dynamics - The production and consumption of paper and paperboard in China are projected to reach 136.25 million tons and 136.34 million tons respectively in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.09% and 3.56% [4][5] - The highest market shares in paper and paperboard production in 2024 are held by corrugated base paper (23.08%) and boxboard (22.28%), while boxboard leads in consumption (26.27%) [5][6] Competitive Landscape - The paper surface sizing agent industry is characterized by a large number of small-scale enterprises, with major players dominating the market due to their technological and financial advantages [8][9] - Key companies in the industry include Huasoft Technology, ST Morning Paper, Bohui Paper, and others, with Huasoft Technology being a leading producer of paper chemicals [8][9] Future Trends - The demand for environmentally friendly and multifunctional surface sizing agents is expected to rise, prompting companies to invest in the development of new products such as water-based and bio-based agents [11][12] - The competitive landscape is anticipated to become more intense, with leading companies focusing on technological advancements and new entrants bringing fresh competition, leading to potential industry consolidation [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - In January, international pulp prices increased, with Arauco softwood pulp rising by $10 to $710 per ton and hardwood pulp by $20 to $590 per ton, providing cost support and potential stabilization in paper prices [3][5] - The report highlights the upcoming announcement from the U.S. regarding the tariff decision related to Trump's global tariff measures, which could impact the export chain [3][5] - E-commerce performance in December for personal care products showed overall weakness, with some emerging brands maintaining rapid growth [3] Summary by Sections Export Chain - The U.S. is expected to announce the tariff decision next week, with a predicted 28% chance of supporting current tariffs. If rejected, tariffs imposed in 2025 may be lifted [5] - The postponement of tariffs on upholstered furniture and cabinets until 2027 may alleviate CPI increases in the U.S. and support demand recovery [5] - Companies like Dream Lily and Fashion Bed Group are expanding into the Canadian market, while Zhongxin Co. plans to establish a factory in the U.S. to enhance global competitiveness [5] Home Furnishing - The furniture manufacturing industry's revenue from January to November 2025 decreased by 9.1% year-on-year, with a widening decline in residential sales [5] - IKEA announced the closure of several stores in China while shifting focus to smaller stores and online channels [5] - The report suggests that despite the ongoing adjustment period in the home furnishing and real estate sectors, valuations are at historical lows, presenting potential investment opportunities [5] Paper and Packaging - As of January 9, 2026, prices for various paper types showed mixed trends, with some prices remaining stable while others decreased [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong production capacity and fiber supply, such as Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International [5] Consumer Goods - Sales growth for sanitary napkins on major e-commerce platforms showed a decline, while some brands on Douyin experienced rapid growth [5] - The report highlights strategic collaborations and product launches by companies like Morning Glory and the potential for recovery in the stationery sector [5] New Tobacco Products - New regulations regarding non-combustible nicotine products will take effect in April 2026, indicating a shift towards a more concentrated market structure [5] - Companies like Smoore International are expected to benefit from the global rollout of their products [5] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with a reported increase in net profit for companies like Bailong Oriental, driven by strong order volumes [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Southwest Securities indicates that the performance of the light industry sector in 2025 is expected to be flat, with cyclical and traditional manufacturing valuations under pressure, while packaging, exports, and personal care sectors show differentiated performance [1] 2025 Sector Review - In 2025, the light industry sector experienced relatively flat performance, with traditional cyclical and manufacturing companies facing valuation pressure. However, the packaging and printing sectors benefited from price increases and cross-industry transformations, leading to better stock performance [1] - The export sector showed some differentiation due to tariff policy disruptions, with companies that have balanced production capacity, strong demand resilience, and low tariff impact performing better [1] - The personal care sector achieved excess returns in the first half of the year but entered a valuation digestion phase in the second half due to intensified competition in e-commerce channels. However, domestic brands are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to product structure optimization and channel expansion [1] 2026 Stock Selection Strategy - The focus will be on undervalued cyclical assets as valuation recovery is anticipated amid changes in the bulk commodity cycle, gradually realizing allocation value [2] - There is a need to balance the valuation and growth potential of new consumption and export sectors, favoring high-growth or low-valuation, high-safety stocks [2] - Four main lines of focus for stock selection include: 1. Gradually emphasizing undervalued cyclical stocks, particularly in the paper sector, which is expected to see price increases driven by "anti-involution" and traditional peak season factors, with net profit per ton likely to recover [2] 2. Export stocks with strong demand resilience and manufacturing capabilities are still considered valuable for allocation, especially those with good growth potential in niche categories and minimal tariff impact [2] 3. Domestic personal care brands are expected to see upward trends in market share and growth potential due to rapid product iteration and competitive pricing [2] 4. New consumption trends in AI glasses, new tobacco products, pet supplies, and trendy toys are expected to continue their upward trajectory, contributing to the growth of the consumption sector [2] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Sun Paper, Bohui Paper, Weigao Medical, Baiya Co., Nobon Co., Yiyi Co., Mengbaihe, and Gujia Home [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company continues to be optimistic about the performance of "forestry-pulp-paper integration" leaders by 2026, emphasizing that integration is key to achieving cost hedging and resource revaluation amid resource constraints and cost fluctuations. Focus should be on "value integrators" with high fiber self-sufficiency and resource barriers [2]. Industry Overview - After the paper industry bull market in 2021, profit distribution has tilted towards the pulp end, with a "long tail effect" in paper capacity clearance. The industry chain currently shows characteristics of "high concentration at the resource end and dispersed competition at the processing end," with pulp being a scarce resource commanding strong pricing power. The midstream paper sector is squeezed by high pulp prices and weak demand, leading to a continuous narrowing of profit margins [5][7]. - The strategic paradigm has shifted from capacity expansion to industry chain integration. Chinese paper companies have entered a mature phase of stock competition, where growth driven solely by capital expenditure is unsustainable. The core strategy has shifted to using self-owned fiber to hedge against volatile pulp prices, transforming leading companies from "global resource movers" to "value integrators" [5][8]. Market Dynamics - A short-term supply gap for wood chips is expected in 2026, with a potential recovery in pulp price levels. The domestic market has seen large-scale production of self-made pulp, but the construction cycle for quality wood chip resources lags behind equipment production. This is anticipated to push up cost levels as demand marginally improves [6]. - The competition landscape is characterized by heavy asset attributes and slow clearance. The investment per ton of paper exceeds 5,000 yuan, while pulp investment is over 2,000 yuan, leading to a long payback period. High depreciation necessitates maintaining high capacity utilization for cash flow, but the supply exceeds demand, and the core contradiction lies in the slow clearance efficiency at the bottom of the cycle [7]. Strategic Evolution - The industry has transitioned from a demand-driven phase to a mature phase of stock competition. Due to a lack of quality forest resources for pulp production, paper companies are in a "strong manufacturing, weak resource" decoupling state, making them vulnerable to global pulp price and exchange rate fluctuations. The strategic focus of leading companies has shifted to "forestry-pulp-paper integration," allowing them to convert unstable processing profits into certain resource premiums [8][9]. Global Comparison - Compared to emerging markets like Brazil, which are still in a dual growth phase of resources and consumption, the valuation logic of Chinese paper companies is undergoing reconstruction. Future focus will shift from capacity growth to the self-sufficiency rate of the entire industry chain. Leading companies are moving away from being "global resource movers" and are enhancing their cost control capabilities, which is crucial for maintaining stable ROE and achieving valuation recovery [9].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of capitalizing on emotional consumption trends and reassessing cyclical value in the light of the 2026 investment strategy for the light industry sector [1][3]. 2025 Sector Review - In 2025, the light industry sector experienced relatively flat performance, with traditional cyclical and manufacturing companies facing valuation pressure. However, packaging and printing sectors benefited from price increases and cross-industry transformations, leading to better stock performance [4]. - The export sector showed some differentiation due to tariff policy disruptions, with companies that had balanced production capacity and strong demand performing better. The personal care sector saw excess returns in the first half of the year but faced valuation digestion in the second half due to intensified e-commerce competition [4][5]. - The report suggests a dual focus for stock selection in 2026: on one hand, to pay attention to undervalued cyclical assets for valuation recovery; on the other hand, to balance the valuation and growth potential of new consumption and export sectors [4]. Stock Selection Strategy - The report recommends four main lines for stock selection: 1. Gradually focus on undervalued cyclical stocks, particularly in the paper sector, which is expected to see price increases driven by seasonal demand and low channel inventory [4]. 2. Maintain a high allocation to export stocks with strong demand resilience and manufacturing capabilities, especially those less affected by tariffs [4]. 3. Invest in high-quality domestic personal care brands benefiting from product structure optimization and channel expansion [4]. 4. Explore new consumption trends in categories like AI glasses, new tobacco products, pet supplies, and trendy toys, which are expected to see significant growth [4]. Recommended Stocks - The report lists several recommended stocks, including: - Sun Paper Industry (002078.SZ) - Bohui Paper Industry (600966.SZ) - Weigao Medical (300888.SZ) - Baiya Co., Ltd. (003006.SZ) - Nobon Co., Ltd. (603238.SH) - Yiyi Co., Ltd. (001206.SZ) - Mengbaihe (603313.SH) - Gujia Home (603816.SH) [4]. 2025 Sector Performance Data - As of December 31, 2025, the SW light industry manufacturing sector had an overall increase of 20.1%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.7 percentage points. The packaging and printing sector performed particularly well with a 35.4% increase [12]. - The report highlights that the packaging sector benefited from price increases and cross-industry transformations, while the home and entertainment sectors also saw significant gains [12][14]. Export Sector Insights - The report notes that from November 2025, the U.S. reduced tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, leading to a gradual recovery in orders. The fluctuations in tariff policies had previously caused delays in orders from U.S. buyers [76]. - The report indicates that the export sector is expected to see a return to competitive pricing against ASEAN countries following the tariff adjustments, which may accelerate industry consolidation [76][81]. Personal Care Sector Trends - The personal care sector is experiencing product structure upgrades and channel benefits, with brands focusing on high-demand segments such as oral care and women's hygiene products [31][50]. - The report forecasts that the market for women's hygiene products will reach 1079.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.0% from 2025 to 2029 [50][51]. Baby Care Market Dynamics - The baby care market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.1% from 2025 to 2029, with a focus on premiumization and specialized products to counteract declining birth rates [59][66]. - The report highlights that single-child consumption is increasing, which helps mitigate the impact of declining birth rates on the market [69].