Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The new housing market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in new home transactions in major cities, indicating a potential boost in demand for construction materials [2][20] - The cement market is experiencing a slight price decline, but demand is expected to improve as weather conditions stabilize and construction activities pick up [3][23] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic consumption and infrastructure investment, particularly in light of the "equal tariff" environment, which is expected to strengthen domestic demand [7][9] Summary by Sections Housing Market - In the 18th week of the year, new home transaction area in 30 major cities reached 165.19 million square meters, up 21% year-on-year and 6.19% month-on-month [2][20] - The total transaction area for new homes in these cities is 29.32 million square meters, showing no year-on-year change [2][20] - Second-hand home transactions in 15 monitored cities increased by 56% year-on-year but saw a significant month-on-month decline [21] Cement Market - The national average cement price is 390.83 yuan per ton, down 0.8% from the previous week, with price increases mainly in Liaoning and Jilin [3][23] - The cement market is expected to stabilize as demand improves and companies engage in peak-shifting production practices [23] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - **Oriental Yuhong**, **Weixing New Materials**, and **Tubaobao** for their strong operational resilience and high dividends [7] - **China Construction** and **China Communications Construction** as beneficiaries of increased infrastructure investment [7] - **Jinchengxin** for its strong performance in copper resource development [7] - **Heilongjiang Hongda** and **Xuefeng Technology** in the civil explosives sector due to high demand [7] Industry Trends - The report highlights the ongoing trend of domestic substitution in various sectors, particularly in ship coatings and industrial coatings, with companies like **Maijia Xincai** and **Songjing Coatings** positioned to benefit [7] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is expected to gain momentum, benefiting international engineering companies such as **China Construction** and **China Metallurgical** [7]

开放共赢，打造引领新材料领域创新发展的风向标。本届大会组织为期3天的新材料展览，共吸引了中 国有研科技集团、中国钢研科技集团、中国建材集团、中国矿冶科技集团等在京材料央企，首钢集团、 金隅集团、一轻控股等市属国企以及北京航空航天大学、北京化工大学、北京工业大学等在京院校和房 山区重点企业共计40余家单位积极参与，集中展示百余项最新研究成果和新材料、新技术、新产品，为 企业搭建了科技创新、应用场景合作的行业交流平台，进一步推动了产业链上下游集聚，为产业创新生 态注入了新动能，助力新质生产力加速发展。 产业赋能，加速科技成果转化与场景落地。大会围绕京津冀"六链五群"产业协同发展任务，充分发挥北 京科技创新优势与津冀产业承载能力，推动新材料在新能源汽车、半导体、高端装备等领域的规模化应 用。本次大会不仅吸引了众多在京材料领域央国企、院校，以及北京优势主体广泛参与，会上，还将有 一批重大项目、联合实验室集中签约落地，依托良乡大学城科技园创新要素集聚优势，加速科技成果转 化和应用场景落地，支撑北京产业链强链补链，推动区域优势产业成链成群，服务协同创新和产业协 作，以高质量发展推进京津冀协同发展迈上新台阶。 协同共进，深 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The market is transitioning from "weak reality, weak expectations" to "stable reality, strong expectations," with a focus on EPS and PE dynamics. The current trading logic reflects a typical "Davis Double Play" scenario, where PE fluctuations are crucial for market performance [5] - The report suggests that the cyclical recovery is expected to be sustainable, with potential policy support for domestic demand, particularly in consumption and manufacturing sectors. This is seen as a more favorable and sustainable choice compared to traditional investments [5] - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions indicate a turning point for many cyclical products, with EPS expected to bottom out before supply and demand, leading to a potential recovery in performance [5] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index (Shenwan) decreased by 2.1%, with sub-sectors like cement and glass fiber also showing declines of 2.2% and 2.8% respectively. Notable stock performances included Sichuan Jinding (+13.3%) and Hanjian Heshan (+8.0%) [9] 1.2. Industry Dynamics - In the first four months of 2025, top 100 real estate companies spent 360.8 billion yuan on land, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%. However, their sales totaled 1,119.86 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year [16] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting energy-saving and carbon-reduction technologies across various sectors, including construction materials [16] 2. Data Tracking 2.1. Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement is 387.7 yuan/ton, down 3.2 yuan/ton month-on-month but up 29.7 yuan/ton year-on-year. The cement inventory ratio is 61.7%, down 0.1 percentage points month-on-month [17] 2.2. Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1,423.0 yuan/ton, up 1.3 yuan/ton month-on-month but down 393.7 yuan/ton year-on-year. Inventory levels have increased by 0.1% month-on-month [32] 2.3. Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 14.3 yuan/sqm, stable month-on-month but down 4.1 yuan/sqm year-on-year. The production capacity is 98,690 tons/day, up 2.1% month-on-month [37] 2.4. Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4,705.0 yuan/ton, down 40.0 yuan/ton month-on-month but up 525.0 yuan/ton year-on-year [44] 2.5. Carbon Fiber - The average price for large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 yuan/kg, stable month-on-month but down 2.0 yuan/kg year-on-year. The average operating rate for carbon fiber companies is 60.62%, up 0.43 percentage points month-on-month [47] 3. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, highlighting stock prices, market capitalization, EPS, PE, and PB ratios for various firms in the construction materials sector [54]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the commodity market, focusing on the impacts of tariffs and macroeconomic conditions on various sectors including metals, construction materials, and energy [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Commodity Market Dynamics**: The macroeconomic fluctuations have dominated the commodity market, particularly affecting industrial metals and black products. Precious metals have performed well due to cautious economic outlooks influenced by tariffs and a weakened dollar credit system [2][3]. - **Steel and Metal Demand**: Steel demand is negatively impacted by tariffs, while copper and aluminum are seen as undervalued with defensive attributes. Gold is highlighted as a key investment due to its low valuation and benefits from recession trading [3][5]. - **Rare Earth Materials**: Rare earth magnets are noted for their strategic importance amid export controls and quota policies, making them a focus despite valuation challenges [6]. - **Construction Materials**: The rise in quartz sand prices due to tariffs is pushing for domestic penetration, benefiting companies like China Liansu and Huaxin Cement. The increase in second-hand housing transactions supports demand for companies like Sankeshu and Beixin Building Materials [7]. - **Aviation and Logistics**: The decline in oil prices is favorable for domestic-focused sectors like aviation and logistics. The aviation sector is expected to see improved profitability due to rising passenger rates and the recovery of international routes [9][10]. - **Trade and Tariff Impacts**: The delay in U.S. tariffs on non-China imports shifts market focus to non-U.S. exposure companies, with firms like Seaspan International and DeXiang Shipping highlighted as potential beneficiaries [11]. Additional Important Insights - **Resource Market Outlook**: Short-term recovery is anticipated in the resource market due to easing tariff tensions, while long-term trends suggest a rise in commodity prices driven by a weakening dollar and monetary easing [4]. - **Energy Sector Trends**: The oil and gas sector is under pressure from geopolitical risks and tariff policies, with oil prices expected to stabilize below $65 per barrel. The U.S. gasoline sales season is anticipated to influence market dynamics positively [15][16]. - **Electric Power Sector**: The electric power industry is experiencing foreign capital fluctuations due to trade tensions, but long-term growth prospects remain strong despite short-term volatility [23]. - **Building Industry Focus**: The construction sector is advised to focus on domestic demand and the "Belt and Road" initiative, with state-owned enterprises expected to benefit from related stimulus policies [24][25]. Investment Recommendations - **Key Stocks to Watch**: Companies such as Shenhua, Yangu Fang, and Clean Energy are recommended for their high dividend yields and growth potential in the clean energy sector. In the coal sector, firms like Huamin are noted for their defensive characteristics amid potential policy stimuli [29].

Market Review - The MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index recorded weekly returns of +2.4% and -0.2% respectively in USD terms, with optimism surrounding US-China negotiations and AI developments driving market sentiment [1] - The Chinese market saw strong tourism activity during the May Day holiday, with flight, train, and hotel bookings experiencing double-digit year-on-year growth [1] - The banking sector faced challenges, with state-owned banks reporting a 3% year-on-year profit contraction for Q1 2025, falling short of JPM's 5% expectations [1] Market Outlook - The MSCI China Index underperformed most global indices in April due to escalating US-China tensions, but has outperformed Asia (excluding Japan), the US, and Japan year-to-date [1] - Expectations for May suggest a range-bound performance for the MSCI China Index, with relative returns likely to improve compared to April [1] - The worst period of US-China tensions appears to be over, supported by China's stable monetary policy and global investor interest in AI-related sectors [1] Industry/Style Performance - The Information Technology sector led gains with a +7.2% increase, followed by Consumer Discretionary (+4.1%) and Communication Services (+2.2%) [1] - The Banking and Real Estate sectors were the worst performers, declining by -2.7% and -2.2% respectively, influenced by weak Q1 2025 earnings and declining real estate sales trends [1] Fund Flows - Offshore ETFs tracking Chinese stocks recorded a net inflow of $369 million from April 28-30, accelerating from a previous net inflow of $164 million from April 22-25 [1] - In contrast, mainland ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.209 billion during the same period, continuing a trend of significant outflows [1] - EPFR data indicated a net inflow of $247 million into Chinese equities for the week ending April 25, driven entirely by passive funds, while active funds saw a net outflow of $69 million [1] Top Active Fund Transactions - The top active buys included Bank of China-H and BYD-A, while Tencent and Meituan were among the top active sells [6]

证券研究报告 | 2025 年 05 月 06 日 $$\overline{{{\prod_{\mathrm{DE}}}}}\frac{\bigtriangleup}{\bigtriangleup}\frac{\bigtriangleup}{\bigtriangleup}\frac{\bigtriangleup\mathrm{bd}}{\bigtriangleup}$$ 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|五一假期大事与大类资产梳理——十五五计划正在酝酿中》 1、中共中央政治局再度就人工智能进行集体学习。中共中央总书记习近 平在主持学习时强调，面对新一代人工智能技术快速演进的新形势，要充 分发挥新型举国体制优势，坚持自立自强，突出应用导向，推动我国人工 智能朝着有益、安全、公平方向健康有序发展。2、美国今年第一季度经 济萎缩 0.3%。美国商务部当地时间 4 月 30 日公布的首次预估数据显示， 今年第一季度美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算萎缩 0.3%，是自 2022 年第一季度以来首次出现下滑。3、大类资产轮动展望：政治局会议 定调强化底线思维，充分备足预案，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策， 加强 ...

Market Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index is close to the rebound target of 3319, with expectations for a potential upward movement in May after filling the gap [1] - Concerns about profit-taking after gap filling are present, but a sideways consolidation before the holiday is seen as normal [1] - The market is anticipated to open positively in May, with a likelihood of continued upward movement after gap filling [1] Economic Indicators - The April PMI has dropped to 49, raising concerns, but it is suggested that this may lead to more fiscal and monetary policies being introduced [1] - The trade war is expected to yield positive news moving forward, as tariffs exceeding 100% are deemed ineffective [1] Sector Analysis - The Hang Seng Technology Index has filled its gap and is beginning a new round of rebound, indicating a similar potential for the Shanghai Composite Index [2] - Emphasis is placed on consumer and technology stocks during the holiday period, highlighting the need for value investment to adapt to changing consumer habits [2] Investment Strategy - The focus is on identifying "hundred-fold consumption stocks" in the new consumption era, moving away from traditional investments in real estate [2][3] - The rise of pet consumption is noted, with companies like Zhongchong Co., Ltd. seeing significant stock price increases [3] Technical Analysis - Predictions for the market from May 6 to May 9 indicate support levels at 3200 and 3250, with resistance at 3380 [4] - The strategy emphasizes holding stocks for potential gains, particularly in sectors like consumption, healthcare, and technology [5] Portfolio Management - A balanced approach is recommended, with 80% of investments in technology and 70% in healthcare and consumer sectors to ensure stable profits [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Conch Cement [2][11]. Core Views - The cement industry is experiencing continued weakness, but Conch Cement is leveraging both organic growth and overseas expansion to create new opportunities [5][11]. - In 2024, Conch Cement's revenue is projected to be CNY 91.03 billion, a year-on-year decline of 35.44%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 7.70 billion, down 26.21% [3][12]. - The company has seen a recovery in profit margins due to price increases since the third quarter of 2024, despite a decline in sales volume [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Conch Cement's self-produced cement sales volume was 268 million tons, a decrease of 5.96% year-on-year [3]. - The average selling price of cement in 2024 was CNY 214.17 per ton, down 21.68% year-on-year [3]. - The company's comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 22.88%, an increase of 5.13 percentage points year-on-year, which helped offset the impact of declining sales volume [4]. Market Position - Conch Cement has maintained a market share increase despite a 9.50% decline in national cement production in 2024, showcasing its scale cost advantages [4]. - The company is actively pursuing regional capacity consolidation and overseas expansion, with new production lines in Uzbekistan and Cambodia [5]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for Conch Cement from 2025 to 2027 are CNY 9.36 billion, CNY 10.40 billion, and CNY 11.64 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 1.77, CNY 1.96, and CNY 2.20 [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Conch Cement [2][11]. Core Views - The cement industry is experiencing continued weakness, but Conch Cement is leveraging both organic growth and overseas expansion to create new opportunities [5][11]. - In 2024, Conch Cement's revenue is projected to be 91.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 35.44%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.70 billion yuan, down 26.21% [3][12]. - The company has seen a decrease in sales volume due to weak industry demand, but prices have rebounded since the third quarter of 2024, positively impacting profit margins [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Conch Cement's self-produced cement sales volume was 26.8 million tons, a decrease of 5.96% year-on-year [3]. - The average selling price of cement in 2024 was 214.17 yuan/ton, down 21.68% year-on-year [3]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 improved to 22.88%, up 5.13 percentage points year-on-year, offsetting the impact of declining sales volume [4]. Market Position - Conch Cement has maintained a market share increase despite a 9.50% decline in national cement production in 2024, showcasing its cost advantages [4]. - The company is positioned as a leading national cement producer, benefiting from its scale and cost efficiency [4]. Growth Opportunities - The current industry downturn has accelerated Conch Cement's market share growth and provided opportunities for external expansion [5]. - The company is actively pursuing regional capacity consolidation and has established offices in Africa and South America, with production lines in Uzbekistan and Cambodia expected to commence operations in early 2025 [5]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for Conch Cement from 2025 to 2027 are 9.36 billion yuan, 10.40 billion yuan, and 11.64 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.77 yuan, 1.96 yuan, and 2.20 yuan [5][12].

Industry Overview - Cement is a powdery hydraulic inorganic binder material that hardens in air or water when mixed with water, binding materials like sand and stone together [1] - The cement industry consists of three stages: upstream raw material supply, midstream cement production, and downstream application in construction and infrastructure [2][5] - The midstream is the core of cement manufacturing, involving the processing of raw materials into clinker and then into cement [3] Industry Development History - The cement industry in China has evolved through several stages closely linked to national economic development, policy adjustments, and market demand changes [7] - Key stages include: 1. Initial exploration (1978-1984) 2. Transition from planned to market economy (1985-1995) 3. Elimination and upgrading (1996-2000) 4. Rapid development (2001-2010) 5. Supply-demand balance adjustment (2011-2021) 6. Seeking industrial upgrade breakthroughs (2022-present) [9] Industry Policy Background - Recent policies aim to address overcapacity and promote orderly development through measures like banning new capacity, eliminating outdated capacity, and promoting peak production [10] Current Industry Status - The cement industry in China has seen fluctuating revenue, with a peak of 1.01 trillion yuan in 2019, followed by a decline to 888.51 billion yuan in 2022 due to the pandemic [11] - Cement production has also declined, dropping to 21.18 billion tons in 2022 and projected to fall to 18.25 billion tons in 2024 [12] - Apparent cement consumption has decreased for three consecutive years, with a forecast of 18.2 billion tons in 2024, the lowest in a decade [15] - The downstream application structure shows that infrastructure construction accounts for the largest share of cement demand at 63%, followed by real estate at 22% and civil use at 15% [17] Competitive Landscape - The cement industry is characterized by regional concentration, with significant numbers of enterprises in central provinces like Hebei, Henan, and Hubei [19] - The overall concentration in the cement sector is low, with China National Building Material (CNBM) leading in production capacity at 518 million tons, followed by Anhui Conch at 395 million tons [20] Future Development Outlook - The cement industry faces a shrinking market due to weakened downstream demand linked to the real estate market and slowing infrastructure investment [24] - Future trends include capacity replacement and the adoption of smart technologies, with a focus on green mining practices [26]