此前一个交易日，伦敦金最高突破5590美元/盎司的历史高位，但最低跌至5109美元/盎司附近，振幅近9%；伦敦银从最高121.64美元/盎司的历史高位，一度 跳水至108.53美元/盎司，当日振幅超过11%。 A股市场同样惨烈，有色金属板块掀起跌停潮，近40只个股跌停或跌超10%。这场断崖式下跌究竟由何引发？是牛市终结的信号，还是上涨途中的技术调 整？ 和讯投顾王新文盯着屏幕上满屏飘绿的数字，贵金属板块几乎全线跌停，这场突如其来的暴跌让所有参与者措手不及。 1月30日，全球贵金属市场迎来剧烈震荡。现货黄金一度跌近5%，逼近5100美元/盎司；现货白银一度跌近7%，跌破110美元/盎司。 01 市场惊魂 2026年开年以来，全球贵金属市场呈现"开挂"式上涨。黄金价格一路飙升，带动白银、铂金等品种刷新阶段性乃至历史纪录。 这场狂欢在1月30日突然刹车。贵金属期货同步上演断崖式暴跌，盘中直线狂泻，跌势完全失控。 受隔夜贵金属巨幅震荡拖累，股市贵金属板块全面崩盘，黄金白银概念股几乎全军覆没，恐慌抛盘如潮水般涌现。 02 跳水元凶 这次暴跌背后，是三个关键的外围市场变数共同作用的结果。 特朗普外交政策的转向成为首要因素 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 1月21日消息，关于黄金和白银的价格走势，贵金属交易商贺利氏贵金属中国交易部门预计，黄金价格 短期料在4500-5000美元/盎司区间波动，白银价格短期料在85-105美元/盎司区间波动。 贺利氏方面表示，近期，伦敦金一路上涨屡创新高，近期已冲破4800美元/盎司关口。开年，特朗普强 硬的扩张性外交政策再度加剧市场避险情绪，对格陵兰岛的表态也引发了欧盟的不满，双方互以加征关 税和抛售美债为条件进行博弈。同时，美联储主席鲍威尔在卸任前遭遇司法挑战，市场对美联储独立性 担忧加剧。两者叠加推动投资者继续购买黄金。全球格局的不确定性，或许导致黄金价格依旧易涨难 跌。近期，伦敦白银也震荡走高，创下接近95.9美金/盎司的历史新高，目前投资热情依旧高涨，各地 的投资银条升水居高不下，全球库存也被ETF白银持仓占用，市场依旧紧俏。但价格指标显示严重超 买，短期波动风险增加。（刘丽丽） 贺利氏方面表示，近期，伦敦金一路上涨屡创新高，近期已冲破4800美元/盎司关口。开年，特朗普强 硬的扩张性外交政策再度加剧市场避险情绪，对格陵兰岛的表态也引发了欧盟的不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced a significant surge, with prices rising from $50.04 to $91.10 per ounce between November 24, 2025, and January 14, 2026, marking an 82.05% increase in just 50 days, surpassing gold's less than 75% increase during the same period [1] Group 1: Historical Context - Historical surges in silver prices in 1980 and 2011 ended in sharp declines, driven by speculative bubbles without fundamental support [3] - The 1980 surge was manipulated by the Hunt brothers, leading to a price spike to $50.35 per ounce, followed by a crash due to regulatory changes and liquidity tightening by the Federal Reserve [3] - The 2011 spike was fueled by quantitative easing, with prices reaching $49.80 per ounce, ultimately collapsing due to increased margin requirements and high leverage among speculators [3] Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The current surge in silver prices is supported by both financial and industrial demand, unlike previous speculative-driven rallies [3] - Financially, global risk aversion and expectations of monetary easing have driven investment into precious metals, with weak U.S. inflation data reinforcing Fed rate cut bets [4] - Industrially, structural growth in silver demand from sectors like photovoltaics, AI servers, and electric vehicles has led to a supply-demand imbalance, with demand exceeding supply for five consecutive years [4] Group 3: Market Structure and Regulation - The current market structure is more diversified compared to past surges, with participation from retail investors, hedge funds, banks, ETFs, and some official institutions [4] - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, has seen continuous net inflows, indicating a more varied funding composition [4] - Regulatory measures have been proactively implemented to curb excessive speculation, including raising margin requirements and limiting trading volumes, which may help mitigate extreme volatility [4] Group 4: Future Outlook and Diverging Opinions - There is a growing divide in market sentiment regarding the sustainability of the current price rally, with bullish forecasts predicting silver prices could reach $65 to $60 per ounce, while bearish views warn of overbought conditions and potential rapid declines [5] - Key variables influencing future price movements include Federal Reserve policy, geopolitical tensions, and industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and AI [5] - The effectiveness of regulatory policies and the flow of ETF investments will also play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and price trends [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the dual flow of globalization in the precious metals new materials sector, with international companies entering the Chinese market while Chinese companies seek global opportunities and face challenges [1] - It emphasizes the need for Chinese precious metals companies to move beyond a single trade mindset and build a global circular system for resources, materials, and recycling [1] Business Layout - Focus on core segments of the precious metals value chain and develop a diversified collaborative growth model [2] Industry Chain Integration - Companies like Umicore and Heraeus are enhancing their global presence and refining their industry chain layout, serving as models for domestic companies [1] - The full industry chain loop includes upstream resource control, midstream material manufacturing, and downstream battery recycling [3] Strategic Focus - Leading companies are increasingly focusing on core business areas and shedding non-core assets to enhance competitiveness [11] - Umicore has exited certain projects to concentrate on cash-generating core businesses [11] Technological Collaboration - Companies are leveraging technological synergies to drive innovation, such as Umicore's extension of catalytic coating technology from automotive catalysts to fuel cell applications [13] Capital Operations - Strategic investments are crucial for acquiring key technologies and driving product commercialization [14] - Heraeus is investing millions in Chinese companies to quickly access critical technologies [14] Regional Cooperation - Joint ventures, such as the one between Tanaka Precious Metals and Chengdu Guangming Pait, enhance resource control capabilities and establish a recycling network [15] Market Strategy in China - Global leaders are intensifying their investments in the Chinese market through production bases and R&D centers [17] - Companies like Heraeus are expanding their production capabilities in China to meet high-end industry demands [18] Global Resource Assurance - Leading companies are building global recycling networks to enhance resource security in the Chinese market [19] Local Management - Companies are establishing localized management structures to improve regional market capabilities, such as the upgrade of the Shanghai Songjiang factory by Johnson Matthey [21] Future Outlook - The industry is poised for transformation driven by green initiatives and technological innovation, with hydrogen, battery materials, and circular economy sectors expected to be key growth areas [22]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has sharply declined to $4,361.8 per ounce, leading to a significant drop in domestic gold prices, with retail prices for gold jewelry falling below 980 yuan per gram, resulting in decreased consumer demand [1]. Price Movements - The price of 999 gold in Shenzhen's wholesale market has dropped to 1,165 yuan per gram, with some retailers unable to cover production costs due to the price drop [1]. - In various regions, gold prices are reported as follows: - Hunan: 1,366 yuan per gram [1] - Jiangsu: 1,359 yuan per gram in Suzhou [1] - Shanghai: 974.39 yuan per gram for spot gold [3] - 9999 gold price remains stable at 1,014.64 yuan per gram [4] - 9995 gold price at 1,006.80 yuan per gram [5]. Market Reactions - The silver market has seen a significant increase, reaching 19,140 yuan per kilogram, with a rise of 3.63% [6]. - Platinum prices have decreased to 646.78 yuan per gram, down 2.32% from the previous trading day [6]. - The market is experiencing volatility, with discussions among investors about the recent price drops and their implications for future investments [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached new heights, with international gold prices surpassing $4500 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On December 23 and 24, international gold prices broke through $4500 per ounce, reaching a peak of $4525.83 per ounce in London and $4555.1 per ounce in COMEX [1] - The domestic gold T+D reached a high of 1016.72 yuan per gram [1] - The overall logic supporting precious metal prices remains unchanged, primarily influenced by geopolitical tensions and expectations of future monetary policy [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The worsening situation in Venezuela, including the U.S. seizure of oil tankers, has been a significant driver for the recent rise in gold prices [2] - Continued attacks on Russian energy facilities in Ukraine have also contributed to the upward trend in precious metals [2] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - Weak U.S. non-farm employment growth and lower-than-expected inflation data have reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [2] - The U.S. dollar index has declined from around 100 to approximately 98, with a cumulative drop of over 10% this year, providing support for dollar-denominated precious metals [2] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The fundamental logic supporting the gold bull market remains intact, with expectations of continued monetary easing and a trend towards de-dollarization [5] - The market's focus has shifted from tariff negotiations to interest rate cuts, with the potential for increased inflation if the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the unprecedented surge in silver prices, driven by the photovoltaic (PV) industry, which is reshaping the demand dynamics for silver and positioning it as a focal point in global capital markets [1][3][12] - Silver demand from the photovoltaic sector is projected to reach 6,146 tons in 2024, accounting for 17% of total silver demand, marking a 9 percentage point increase from 2021 [3] - The financial appeal of silver has increased as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, with historical data indicating that a 1% depreciation of the dollar correlates with a 1.5-2% increase in silver prices [3] Group 2 - Global silver mine production has been declining for five consecutive years, expected to drop to 820 million ounces (approximately 2,580 tons) by 2025, a 12% decrease from the peak in 2020 [4] - The cost of silver paste in solar cells has risen significantly, with silver paste costs exceeding 30% of total costs for certain battery types, squeezing profit margins for companies [6] - Various technological advancements are emerging to reduce silver usage, including silver-coated copper and copper plating, which are in different stages of development and production [7][8][9] Group 3 - A potential turning point in silver supply and demand dynamics is anticipated in 2026, with a projected 10% decline in global PV installations and a significant reduction in silver demand growth [10] - The structure of silver demand is shifting, with the photovoltaic sector's share expected to decrease from 18% in 2023 to below 8% by 2030, as alternatives like copper plating gain traction [12] - The global silver recycling potential is expected to increase significantly as the lifecycle of solar panels leads to more silver being recovered from decommissioned units [13] Group 4 - The photovoltaic industry is entering a new phase of cost reduction, with silver paste costs projected to drop below 5% of total costs, enhancing the competitiveness of high-efficiency technologies [15] - China's photovoltaic industry is reducing its reliance on imported silver, improving supply chain security and impacting the revenue of silver-exporting countries [16] - Future scenarios for silver supply and demand balance suggest varying price trends based on the penetration of silver alternatives, with potential price declines if copper plating becomes more prevalent [17] Group 5 - Investment strategies in precious metals should focus on identifying certainty amid volatility, with attention to changes in COMEX silver inventories indicating potential risks [18] - The surge in silver prices is driving increased demand for copper, benefiting companies in the copper sector as they capitalize on the shift from silver to copper in various applications [18]

（来源：沈阳日报） 转自：沈阳日报 □沈阳日报、沈报全媒体记者 叶青 12月22日，"聚力十载开放路 创见未来跃新篇"中德（沈阳）高端装备制造产业园（以下简称中德园） 新工业场景发布会在全球工业互联网大会会议中心举办。 展示十年发展成果，释放全新工业场景。一个产业园，能为一个区域、一座城市带来什么？答案写在肩 负国家战略奋进的十年，也写在一张蓝图绘到底的未来。 新质澎湃，释放工业新场景 面向"十五五"，聚力新能源、生物医药等战略性新兴产业，当日，中德园零碳园与沈阳国际生命健康城 两个高能级平台共推出八大类、21个投资合作场景，面向全国乃至全球释放合作"西"引力。 新场景一经发布，立即吸引众多科技型企业、高校及科研院所与高端人才团队的目光，看好的正是其中 蕴藏的风口与机会。 作为国家级绿色工业园区，中德园零碳园将于2027年实现单位能耗碳排放量0.18吨的国家零碳标准。上 新场景涵盖"绿电直连"风电开发、分布式光伏设施、地热资源利用、能碳智慧管理平台、虚拟电厂建 设、零碳标准等多个领域。而园区内汇集4400余家工业企业，背后是设备更新、节能降碳方案等绿色转 型需求的巨大市场。 "依托中德园优越的产业生态和创新政 ...

Group 1 - The global metal market in 2025 showed significant investment returns, with silver leading at over 127% increase, followed by platinum at 120%, gold at 65%, and copper at 35% [1][4] - GTC ZEHUI Capital indicates that the macroeconomic environment strongly supports both safe-haven and industrial metals [1][4] - A survey of 352 investors revealed that 51% expect silver to continue leading in price increases, while 29% favor gold, and 11% and 10% favor copper and platinum respectively [1][4] Group 2 - Wall Street institutions generally hold an optimistic view on gold and silver, but some top banks and commodity experts believe that platinum group metals (PGM) may outperform in 2026 [2][5] - According to TD Securities, gold prices could exceed $4,400 per ounce in the first half of 2026 due to declining interest rates and currency devaluation pressures [2][5] - GTC ZEHUI Capital forecasts that gold's long-term price range will be anchored between $3,500 and $4,400, unless unexpected resilience in the U.S. job market occurs [2][5] Group 3 - GTC ZEHUI Capital notes a shift in the silver market from a "squeeze" mode to a "flood" mode, with a projected large-scale replenishment of LBMA free float inventory in 2026, potentially reaching 212 million ounces [2][5] - The anticipated recovery in inventory levels may reduce the urgency for silver prices to rise, possibly leading to a price correction in early 2026, with a median estimate around $45 [2][5] - Experts predict that platinum and palladium prices will exceed market consensus by about 20%, driven by tightening lease rates and increased demand from de-urbanization [2][5] Group 4 - Analysts from Heraeus and others warn that after the irrational exuberance of 2025, precious metals may enter a consolidation phase in early 2026 [3][6] - GTC ZEHUI Capital suggests that gold prices may fluctuate between $3,750 and $5,000, with physical demand showing signs of differentiation due to high prices [3][6] - The future of the market may hinge on the degree of labor market weakening, as further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could benefit gold, while a deep recession might pressure industrial metals like platinum [3][6] Group 5 - The 2026 metal market is expected to present both opportunities and volatility, with short-term price adjustments likely [3][6] - Despite potential short-term price digestion, the long-term upward trajectory for gold and silver remains intact due to central bank purchases and distrust in currency credit [3][6] - GTC ZEHUI Capital emphasizes the importance of monitoring the platinum market's supply deficit, which may offer risk premiums exceeding traditional safe-haven assets, while silver's volatility is expected to remain significantly higher than gold [3][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the elements in the trading logic of platinum and palladium are more numerous than before. The fundamental contradiction in the platinum and palladium spot market and the optimistic macro - loose environment will support the rise of platinum and palladium in the first half of the year. Platinum may have a higher increase than palladium due to better fundamentals and stronger financial attributes. In the second half, if the spot contradiction eases, prices may fall. If US tariffs are implemented, the global supply - chain pattern of platinum and palladium will be reshaped. The expected price range for platinum is $1500 - 2800 per ounce in US dollars and 380 - 730 yuan per gram in RMB; for palladium, it is $1200 - 2250 per ounce in US dollars and 300 - 590 yuan per gram in RMB [2]. - In 2026, it is recommended to focus on cross - market arbitrage opportunities caused by spot structural imbalances. Consider a long - platinum and short - palladium ratio strategy. For the medium - to long - term unilateral strategy, it is advisable to go long on platinum at low prices, and for short - term intraday or weekly bands, consider allocating palladium, that is, go long on palladium when it has a deep correction [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 2025 Platinum and Palladium Price Review 3.1.1 Platinum Price Logic Review - In 2025, platinum had a 93% increase by December 15. It broke through the 10 - year oscillation range, with macro - sentiment as the core catalyst and good fundamentals as the support. The price went through different stages including shock - building, explosive growth, callback - oscillation, and secondary growth [6]. 3.1.2 Palladium Price Operation - In 2025, palladium had a unique "oscillation - climbing and long - short game" market, with a 67% increase by December 15. The core driving logic was the triple game of macro - liquidity loosening, supply - demand structural contradiction, and industrial transformation pressure. In the first half, it oscillated, and in the second half, it rose significantly due to macro - liquidity changes and market - structure marginal changes [14]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Sentiment - In 2025, the global macro - environment was characterized by "loose - dominated, resilient growth, and co - existing differentiation". Major economies implemented loose policies, with the global GDP growth rate expected to be in the 2.7% - 3.4% range and inflation gradually falling to 3% - 4.2%. However, trade protectionism and policy uncertainties still posed potential pressures [20]. - In 2026, the global economy will slow down moderately, and the loose cycle will continue with significant differentiation. The attractiveness of anti - inflation assets such as precious metals is expected to increase. In 2025, platinum's price soared due to price - to - return advantages, supply - demand gaps, and growth - type demand, but it cannot truly replace gold due to core shortcomings in liquidity, stability, and lack of currency attributes [21][22]. 3.3 Supply Side in 2026 3.3.1 Primary Mineral Differentiation - South Africa's power supply has improved, but there are still local shortages. In 2026, mines and residents may face stepped power rationing. The production rhythm of core mining enterprises is stable, but there is no obvious growth momentum. The All - In Sustaining Costs (AISC) of core mining enterprises have soared, and Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) has decreased, which will drag down the realization of existing and new production capacities to some extent [26][33][39]. 3.3.2 Recycling Supply - Global platinum and palladium recycling enterprises have sufficient production - capacity reserves. Driven by high prices, they have a strong willingness to increase production. It is expected that in 2026, the global platinum and palladium recycling supply scale will increase significantly, with an expected incremental supply of 15 - 20 tons in China [46][47]. 3.3.3 Spot Structural Contradiction - Affected by the US 232 investigation and the anti - dumping and counter -vailing investigations on palladium, platinum and palladium inventories have been hoarded in the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), leading to frequent liquidity crises in the New York and London markets and violent fluctuations in the price spread between the two markets. Before the judgment results are announced in the first half of 2026, the spot structural imbalance will remain an "irreconcilable contradiction" [48][50][52]. 3.4 Demand Side in 2026 3.4.1 Hybrid Electric Vehicles Replace Traditional Energy Vehicles - The global automotive market is shifting towards new energy vehicles. It is expected that in 2026, the sales volume of pure - electric and hybrid vehicles will reach 26.1 million. Hybrid electric vehicles have a higher total platinum - palladium load than traditional fuel vehicles, which alleviates the decline in platinum - palladium demand. Globally, platinum demand in the automotive field is expected to increase by 0.91%, while palladium demand is expected to decrease by 0.06% [59][70][71]. 3.4.2 Industrial Demand - In the glass - fiber industry, China's new production capacity is expected to increase platinum demand by 3.3 tons in 2026. In the petrochemical industry, platinum demand has a moderate growth expectation. The promotion of fuel - cell vehicles is declining, and there is no hope of explosive growth in the short term. Overall, platinum and palladium industrial demand is expected to increase by 3% in 2026 [79][84][91]. 3.4.3 Jewelry Demand - China's platinum jewelry demand has declined for two consecutive years, and India has restricted platinum jewelry imports. It is expected that global platinum jewelry demand will decline by 10% in 2026, while palladium jewelry demand is expected to remain stable [92][94][95]. 3.4.4 Investment Demand - Platinum and palladium investment products are niche. In 2026, as prices rise in the first half, ETFs may continue to increase their holdings; when prices reach a high level, there may be profit - taking. It is expected that the investment demand for platinum and palladium will decline by 30% throughout the year [97][103][106]. 3.5 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - On the supply side, in 2026, the global platinum mineral supply is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, while the palladium mineral supply will be stable. The recycling supply will be the core incremental source, with an expected increase of 6 tons of platinum and 10 tons of palladium [107]. - On the demand side, there is significant differentiation. In the automotive exhaust - catalysis field, hybrid vehicles help stop the decline in platinum - palladium demand. In 2026, platinum will be in a tight - supply balance, and palladium will have a slight supply surplus [108][109]. - The platinum and palladium spot market has a significant structural contradiction, which will support price increases in the medium term. Key factors to track include the release of hidden inventories, price differentiation between platinum and palladium, and the change in investment sentiment [111].