BZ&EB周报：短期EB高位震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2026年02月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：短期EB高位震荡 | | • | 纯苯国产：12月检修11万吨，1月检修维持11万吨（假设考虑浙石化检修带来4.5万吨减量），主要是中化泉州、丽东、浙石化等装置检修量大。部分山 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 东地炼在解决了配额问题之后仍会提高负荷，弥补部分产量损失。1月关注巴斯夫湛江新投产带来的纯苯增量。 | | | • | 纯苯进口：虽然海外库存压力仍然偏大，但是整体进口量下调。26年1-3月纯苯单月进口量平均约43万吨左右。美韩关税仍在，但是后续美亚芳烃物流在 | | | | 春节后可能继续发生，预估影响每个月3-4万吨纯苯。 | | | • | 苯乙烯：12月检修8.5万吨，1月检修6.5万吨。12月之后装置开工逐步恢复，关注山东国恩化工装置开工带来的增量。 | | | • | 己内酰胺：CPL负 ...

2026 年 2 月 1 日 行业研究 地缘政治不确定性驱动油价上行，坚定看好石化板块景气度 ——石油化工行业周报第 438 期（20260126—20260201） 要点 地缘局势紧张抬升油价，预计 26 年油价或在 60-80 美元/桶区间宽幅震荡。 本周伊朗地缘局势紧张程度加剧，原油的地缘政治风险溢价上升，油价上涨。 截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，布伦特、WTI 原油期货价格分别报收 69.83、65.74 美元/桶，较上周收盘分别上涨 6.7%、7.3%。全球局势持续动荡，地缘政治 的不确定性有望为油价景气奠定基础。此外，考虑到：（1）美国页岩油边际 成本高企，25Q1 调查边际成本约为 65 美元/桶，有望成为原油供给端边际减 量；（2）OPEC+于 26Q1 暂缓增产，体现其平衡油价诉求，长期来看 OPEC+ 各国财政依赖原油销售收入，中高油价诉求有望持续；（3）26 年原油需求预 期向好，IEA 预计 2026 年全球原油需求增长 93 万桶/日，高于 2025 年的 85 万桶/日。我们认为油价未来将在 60-80 美元区间宽幅震荡，油价中高位运行 有望为石化板块景气奠定基础。 全球深 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry Core Insights - The cost support for the chemical products and polyester industry chain is strong, leading to price increases [2] - Domestic key refining project price difference is 2537.18 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 18.62 CNY/ton (+0.74%) as of January 30, 2026 [3] - International oil prices have shown a significant increase, with Brent and WTI prices at 70.69 and 65.21 USD/barrel respectively, reflecting increases of 4.81 and 4.14 USD/barrel [2] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The geopolitical situation involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine has influenced oil prices, with a notable increase in geopolitical risk premiums due to US military actions in the Middle East [2] - Domestic refined oil prices have shown slight fluctuations, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6265.14, 7535.14, and 5183.14 CNY/ton respectively [2] - The price difference between domestic refined oil and crude oil has decreased, indicating a potential impact on profitability [2] Chemical Sector - The chemical products sector is experiencing strong cost support, with price differences for pure benzene and styrene continuing to rise due to robust cost support and expected maintenance in overseas markets [2] - The polyester industry chain has seen comprehensive price increases, driven by enhanced cost support and market sentiment [2] - The market for nylon has seen price adjustments, although the price difference has slightly narrowed [2] Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - The stock price performance of six major private refining companies shows varied results, with Rongsheng Petrochemical increasing by 7.51% and Dongfang Shenghong by 16.48% over the past week [2] - Over the past month, Rongsheng Petrochemical has increased by 31.81%, indicating strong market performance [2]

（来源：工人日报） "从早期东吴丝织厂的手工匠人，到如今恒力、盛虹等企业里攻克'卡脖子'技术的技能人才，这种精益 求精的创造精神一脉相承。这本书里的技能传承故事，为我们培养新时代产业工人提供了鲜活范 本。"王发华说。 从更宏观的城市发展角度来看，"从传统手工业者到现代产业工人，从乡镇企业崛起至世界级产业集群 形成，产业工人的命运与城市发展同频共振，这本书正是这种深度交融的生动注脚。"王发华认为，书 中呈现的"敢为、敢闯、敢干、敢首创"的奋斗精神，正是当下城市建设所需，也为城市高质量发展带来 启示。 近日，由苏州市总工会编辑出版的《苏州产业工人史》亮相苏州市两会"赠书角"，代表委员们读书学习 的身影络绎不绝。代表委员们纷纷表示，这本系统梳理苏州产业工人百年发展轨迹的著作里，流淌着产 业工人的奋斗故事与城市记忆，不仅带来诸多思考和启示，也为大家履职尽责、共谋城市发展带来源源 不竭的动力。 2025年是中华全国总工会成立100周年。献礼百年工运，苏州市总工会牵头编撰出版了《苏州产业工人 史》。该书是苏州首部以"人"与"城"交融视角书写的苏州产业工人史诗。该书突破传统工运史与工会史 的书写框架，以时间为轴分为六章，从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China Liaoning Branch is focused on enhancing financial services for the real economy, particularly through the development of the bond market and improving the accessibility of financial products for enterprises, thereby driving high-quality economic growth in Liaoning province. Group 1: Bond Financing and Policy Promotion - The bank has intensified policy promotion efforts, conducting activities themed "Debt Financing Tools Activate Liaoning's New Productive Forces" to educate 150 major state-owned and leading private enterprises about new policies in the interbank bond market [1] - In 2025, non-financial corporate debt financing tools issued in the province reached 66.173 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, with an average interest rate dropping to 2.21%, saving enterprises over 318 million yuan in interest costs [1] Group 2: Counter Bond Business Expansion - A monitoring mechanism for counter bond business has been established, promoting awareness and understanding of counter bond products through various channels [2] - The number of participating institutions in the interbank market's counter bond business increased from 1 to 6, with 3,298 bank outlets covering all 14 cities in the province, resulting in 25,710 transactions and a transaction amount of 11.413 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 198.5% [2] Group 3: Support for the Bill Market - The bill market is leveraged for low-cost financing and high liquidity, with efforts to enhance information disclosure and credit management to ensure efficient market operation [3] - In 2025, the cumulative acceptance amount of bills in Liaoning reached 626.793 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, while the cumulative bill discount amount was 567.988 billion yuan, up 15.14% [3] Group 4: Technology Innovation Bond Market - The establishment of a "Technology Board" for bonds aims to support local technological innovation and private enterprises, with 145 key enterprises already included in the bond issuance reserve [7] - The bank has implemented a mechanism to promote debt financing tools and conducted various policy interpretation and training activities, resulting in successful issuance of technology innovation bonds totaling 8.8 billion yuan, including the first technology innovation bond in Northeast China [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the chemical industry, highlighting the potential benefits from the "dual carbon" policy implementation [5]. Core Insights - The "dual carbon" policy is expected to significantly impact the chemical industry, with a focus on carbon emissions control becoming a rigid constraint during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6][14]. - The report identifies that the attention towards "dual carbon" from provincial leaders has increased by 137% since September 2025, indicating a shift in focus towards carbon emissions as a critical performance metric [7][18]. - The chemical industry is anticipated to undergo structural changes, with high carbon intensity sectors facing supply constraints, while low-carbon leaders are expected to benefit from the transition [8][30]. Summary by Sections 1. "14th Five-Year Plan": Carbon Peak Closing Battle - Local carbon assessments may treat carbon emissions as an equally important rigid constraint [15]. - High carbon intensity sectors such as ammonia fertilizer, coal chemical, and chlorine-alkali are likely to face capacity constraints first [29][30]. 2. Petrochemical "Dual Carbon" Opportunities - The petrochemical sector is expected to undergo a transformation driven by the "dual carbon" goals, with a focus on optimizing supply and demand structures [38]. - Refining sector dynamics are shifting towards improved supply-demand balance due to stringent approval processes for new projects and the elimination of high-energy-consuming capacities [38]. 3. Basic Chemical "Dual Carbon" Opportunities - Coal chemical industry is projected to stabilize supply under carbon limits, driving quality improvements in the sector [3.1]. - Carbon fiber and fluorochemical sectors are expected to benefit from process optimization and green transitions [3.2][3.3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of leading companies: 1. Integrated leaders in the oil chemical sector with scale and efficiency advantages [8]. 2. Coal chemical leaders with advanced processes and low emissions [8]. 3. High-quality firms in fluorochemical and carbon fiber sectors that align with "dual carbon" goals [8].

截至2026年1月30日 11:20，中证细分化工产业主题指数下跌2.55%。成分股方面涨跌互现，恩捷股份领 涨4.25%，瑞丰新材上涨0.34%，宝丰能源上涨0.25%；华峰化学领跌，和邦生物、藏格矿业跟跌。 长期以来，传统化工行业因无序扩产导致产能严重过剩，成为压制盈利的核心症结。2025–2026年，供 给端迎来根本性变革：国家出台《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》，明确遏制盲目投 资、推动落后产能有序退出，各地配套政策同步落地。在此引导下，行业自发开启"反内卷"模式——企 业主动安排装置检修、收缩低效产能。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，中证细分化工产业主题指数前十大权重股分别为万华化学、盐湖股 份、藏格矿业、天赐材料、巨化股份、恒力石化、华鲁恒升、宝丰能源、云天化、金发科技，前十大权 重股合计占比45.31%。 化工ETF嘉实(159129)紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，聚焦行业"反内卷"背景下新一轮景气周 期。 场外投资者还可以通过化工ETF联接基金(013527)关注化工板块投资机遇。 国海证券指出，展望2026年，中国化工行业推行反内卷，化工有望迎来景气上行周期 ...

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国化学纤维行业市场运行现状及投资前景分析报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国化学纤维产量为782万吨，同比增长6.4%；2025年1-12月中 国化学纤维累计产量为8701.1万吨，累计增长4.9%。 2020-2025年中国化学纤维产量统计图 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 上市企业：新乡化纤（000949）,恒力石化（600346）,华峰超纤（300180）,荣盛石化（002493）,吉林化 纤（000420）,桐昆股份（601233）,中泰化学（002092）,南京化纤（600889）,泰和新材（002254）,澳 洋健康（002172） 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 ...

知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国合成纤维产量为714万吨，同比增长6.2%；2025年1-12月中 国合成纤维累计产量为7941.6万吨，累计增长4.8%。 2020-2025年中国合成纤维产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 上市企业：恒逸石化（000703）,荣盛石化（002493）,新凤鸣（603225）,桐昆股份（601233）,恒力石化 （600346）,吉林化纤（000420）,华峰化学（002064）,澳洋健康（002172）,泰和新材（002254）,江南 高纤（600527） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国合成纤维行业市场现状调查及发展趋向研判报告》 ...

Tesla Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Tesla - **Date of Call**: January 29, 2026 Key Financial Metrics - **Overall Gross Margin**: 20.1%, up 3.8% year-over-year and 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2][3] - **Automotive Gross Margin**: 20.4%, up over 3 percentage points year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter [2][3] - **Energy Business Gross Margin**: 28.6%, up 3 percentage points year-over-year, slight decline quarter-over-quarter [3][10] - **Reported Profit**: $840 million, down 60% year-over-year and 40% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to a $600 million loss from Bitcoin fair value changes [3] Production and Product Development - **Robot Production**: Plans to launch the third-generation Optimus robot (V3) in Q1 2026, with a target production of 1 million units by the end of the year [2][4] - **Factory Transition**: The California factory will cease production of Model S/X in H1 2026 to prepare for V3 robot production [4] - **AI Computing Facility**: Plans to double the scale of the AI computing facility in Texas, with A15 chip performance expected to be 50 times that of the A14 chip, projected for production in 2027-2028 [3][8] Full Self-Driving (FSD) Updates - **FSD Launch**: FSD launched in South Korea, achieving over 1 million kilometers driven in one month; expansion to Italy, Germany, and France is underway [5] - **China Market Entry**: Expected entry into China in February, likely at L2+ level [5] - **FSD Subscription Growth**: 1.1 million new subscribers in Q4, totaling 8.9 million, a 40% year-over-year increase [5] Robotaxi Project - **Deployment**: Robotaxi service launched in Austin, with plans to expand to seven U.S. cities, including the San Francisco Bay Area [6][7] - **Cybercab Production**: Expected to begin mass production in April, with anticipated sales exceeding all previous models combined [7] Capital Expenditure and Investment - **2026 Capital Expenditure**: Expected to exceed $20 billion, the highest in history, primarily for robot training computing needs [3][9] - **XAI Investment**: A $2 billion investment plan for XAI to enhance AI collaboration, expected to be completed in Q1 [8] Industry Insights - **Energy Business Challenges**: Facing pressure on profit margins due to increased low-cost competition, with gross margins declining from over 30% to 28.6% [10] - **Robot Industry Focus**: Emphasis on refining the robot supply chain, with a focus on production and profitability similar to the automotive industry [12][13] - **Technological Upgrades**: V3 version will feature significant technological advancements, including component sales and innovations akin to breakthroughs in the electric vehicle sector [14] Recommendations - **Investment Focus**: Recommended focus on leading Tier 1 suppliers such as Topband, Sanhua, Hengli, and Rongtai, while also monitoring new entrants in niche markets [15]