有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 流动性预期回摆，错杀品修复可期 ——有色及贵金属周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 核心观点：流动性预期回摆，错杀品修复可期。近日特朗普提名沃什为下一任美联储主 席，短期贵金属乐观预期的回摆导致金属价格大幅波动，建议关注错杀品种的修复机 会。 投资标的： 相关标的：山东黄金(600547，未评级)、山金国际(000975，未评级)、中金黄金 (600489，未评级)、赤峰黄金(600988，买入)、紫金矿业(601899，买入)、洛阳钼业 (603993，未评级)、中国铝业(601600，未评级)、西部矿业(601168，未评级)、金诚 信(603979，未评级)。 风险提示 下游需求弱于预期、供给端大量释放、美联储降息进程不及预期等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 02 日 看好维持 | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 兰洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a significant drop, leading to panic in the Asia-Pacific markets, with major indices falling over 2% on February 2, 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market saw all three major indices drop more than 2%, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 2.48% to close at 4015.75 points [1] - The total market turnover was 2.61 trillion yuan, continuing a trend of reduced trading volume over two consecutive days [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - The Food and Beverage ETF (515710) rose by 0.86%, while the Banking ETF (512800) increased by 0.13% [2] - The Securities ETF (512000) fell by 1.23%, and the Technology ETF (515000) dropped by 3.36% [2] - The Precious Metals ETF (159876) saw a significant decline of 9.97%, indicating a strong sell-off in the sector [2] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The chemical and non-ferrous metals sectors faced heavy selling pressure, with the Chemical ETF (516020) down 6.98% and the Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) hitting the daily limit down [2] - Analysts from CITIC Securities suggest that the price increase narrative may continue throughout the first quarter, but caution is advised for the speculative precious metals sector [2] - The white liquor sector, particularly stocks like Kweichow Moutai, saw a surge, with the Food and Beverage ETF reaching a peak increase of 3.28% during the day [4][5] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Analysts from CITIC Securities and other institutions are optimistic about the white liquor sector, predicting a potential bottoming out opportunity in the coming years [7] - The banking sector is gaining attention as a potential rebound opportunity, with significant inflows into the Banking ETF, which has attracted nearly 11 billion yuan in the last ten days [14][16] - The overall market remains active ahead of the Chinese New Year, with a focus on sectors with strong fundamental support [4][16]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on February 2, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.46% [12] - The total trading volume across the three markets was 26,069.20 billion, a decrease of 2,558.2 billion from the previous day, with over 4,600 stocks declining [12][14] - The smart grid sector showed resilience, with several stocks such as Tongguang Cable and Baobian Electric reaching their daily limit [12] Sector Performance - The white wine sector rebounded, driven by rising consumption and increasing prices, with Moutai's wholesale price rising by 160 yuan to 1,770 yuan per bottle [12] - The commodity futures market saw significant declines, with precious metals and energy sectors experiencing sharp drops, including a more than 15% decline in gold [13] - The electronic industry faced the largest net outflow of funds, with Zhongji Xuchuang leading the outflow [25][26] Investment Insights - The current market conditions suggest a potential shift in investment styles, with discussions around inflation recovery and corporate profit recovery gaining traction [11] - The relative PE-TTM ratio of the CSI 1000 compared to the CSI 300 is at 3.55, indicating a high valuation level [11] - The market is characterized by crowded trades in certain sectors, necessitating significant fundamental changes for excess returns, while less crowded sectors may yield better returns with minor improvements [11] Key Stocks and Funds - Notable net inflows were observed in the electric power equipment, banking, and food and beverage sectors, while the electronic and non-ferrous metal sectors saw significant outflows [26] - Major stocks with net inflows included Xinye Technology and West Materials, while Zhongji Xuchuang and Zhaoyi Innovation faced the largest outflows [26][30]

2月2日，中国铝业大宗交易成交130万股，成交额1653.6万元，占当日总成交额的0.16%，成交价12.72 元，较市场收盘价12.72元持平。 | 交易日期 证券简称 | | 壬券代码 三 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量(*) 买入营业部 | | | 卖出营业部 | 是否为专场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 026-02-02 | 中国铝补 | 601600 | 12.72 1653.6 器會是愛蘭與嘉豐 | 130 | 公開管家材料及 | | ка | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing strength in precious metals and anticipates potential profit increases in minor metals [1]. - It emphasizes the financial attributes of copper and the impact of supply constraints on various metals, including aluminum and tungsten [4][5]. - The report notes the continued demand for gold driven by central bank purchases and the selling of U.S. government bonds by European institutions [4]. Summary by Sections Copper Sector - The report indicates a focus on the financial attributes of copper, with LME copper prices at $12,921 per ton and SHFE copper at ¥101,340 per ton, showing a week-on-week change of -0.6% and +0.6% respectively [4]. - It mentions a tightening supply of copper concentrate, with processing fees declining, which may accelerate the clearing of smelting profits [4]. Aluminum Sector - LME aluminum prices reached $3,175 per ton, while SHFE aluminum was at ¥24,290 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of +0.9% and +1.5% respectively [4]. - The report notes a high operating rate of 98.3% for electrolytic aluminum and a slight increase in the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises [4]. Precious Metals - SHFE gold prices were reported at ¥1,115.6 per gram and COMEX gold at $4,983.1 per ounce, with week-on-week increases of +8.1% and +8.3% respectively [4]. - The report highlights that the SPDR Gold ETF's net holdings increased to 1,086.5 tons, indicating stable demand from overseas investors [4]. Minor Metals - Tungsten prices rose to ¥535,000 per ton, with a week-on-week increase of +5.5% [4]. - The report also notes a tightening supply in the rare earth sector, with prices for praseodymium and dysprosium oxides showing slight declines [4]. Steel Sector - SHFE rebar and hot-rolled coil prices were reported at ¥3,142 and ¥3,305 per ton, with slight week-on-week decreases [5]. - The report mentions a significant explosion at a steel plant, which may lead to stricter safety regulations and supply constraints in the steel industry [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with rich copper resources, such as Zijin Mining and China Molybdenum, as well as those in the aluminum sector like China Aluminum and Nanshan Aluminum [8]. - It also recommends monitoring tungsten and rare earth companies, as well as steel firms with strong product structures [8].

沃什获美联储主席提名引爆鹰派预期，全球资产遭遇剧烈波动。港股三大指数全天下行，恒指失守两万 七大关，恒科指数午后一度跌超4%。截至收盘，恒生指数跌2.23%或611.54点，报26775.57点，全日成 交额为3478.86亿港元；恒生国企指数跌2.54%，报9080.19点；恒生科技指数跌3.36%，报5526.31点。 华泰证券表示，当前市场回调更多是上涨过快的背景下，偏鹰派美联储主席提名导致的技术性回撤。该 行认为，经历了如此调整后，当前的核心问题是波动的持续性和会不会终结市场表现。当前情绪已在乐 观区间，且拥挤度尚未明显回落，波动短期或持续，但更多是回撤而不是反转。一季度市场空间的三个 驱动因素——流动性改善、资金面共振与盈利预期上修仍然成立。 蓝筹股表现 金沙中国(01928)逆市上扬。截至收盘，涨4.05%，报17.72港元，成交额7.76亿港元，贡献恒指2.66点。 澳门博彩监察协调局公布数据显示，1月博彩毛收入226.33亿澳门元，同比增长24%，较前一个月升 8.4%。摩根士丹利研报指出，澳门今年一月博彩总收入优于市场预期。又因农历新年8日假期全落在二 月，预计该月应能获得额外增长动力，估计 ...

智通财经APP获悉，沃什获美联储主席提名引爆鹰派预期，全球资产遭遇剧烈波动。港股三大指数全天 下行，恒指失守两万七大关，恒科指数午后一度跌超4%。截至收盘，恒生指数跌2.23%或611.54点，报 26775.57点，全日成交额为3478.86亿港元；恒生国企指数跌2.54%，报9080.19点；恒生科技指数跌 3.36%，报5526.31点。 华泰证券表示，当前市场回调更多是上涨过快的背景下，偏鹰派美联储主席提名导致的技术性回撤。该 行认为，经历了如此调整后，当前的核心问题是波动的持续性和会不会终结市场表现。当前情绪已在乐 观区间，且拥挤度尚未明显回落，波动短期或持续，但更多是回撤而不是反转。一季度市场空间的三个 驱动因素——流动性改善、资金面共振与盈利预期上修仍然成立。 蓝筹股表现 金沙中国(01928)逆市上扬。截至收盘，涨4.05%，报17.72港元，成交额7.76亿港元，贡献恒指2.66点。 澳门博彩监察协调局公布数据显示，1月博彩毛收入226.33亿澳门元，同比增长24%，较前一个月升 8.4%。摩根士丹利研报指出，澳门今年一月博彩总收入优于市场预期。又因农历新年8日假期全落在二 月，预计该月应能 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights that the recent volatility in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by market momentum reversals, with silver attracting high leverage and speculative funds since November 2025 [2][5] - The report anticipates that after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, there will be more interest rate cuts than the market expects, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields likely to decline [2][4] - The report notes that the recent decline in the manufacturing PMI does not indicate a weakening economy, as it reflects a temporary fluctuation rather than a downward trend [10] Group 2: Commodity Market Analysis - The report indicates that the recent crash in silver prices has led to liquidity risks that may spread to other commodities, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the support levels for gold prices, particularly the 60-day moving average, which is currently at $4,400 per ounce [5] - The report suggests that the Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to manage the risk of a one-sided market in silver futures [5] Group 3: Equity Market Outlook - The report predicts a rebound in the A-share market following the Spring Festival, driven by positive sentiment from performance forecasts and new developments in sectors like AI applications and commercial aerospace [6][10] - It advises a balanced ETF allocation in domestic equities, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the market [11] Group 4: Bond Market Perspective - The report notes that the bond market is expected to see increased buying activity due to risk aversion and expectations of monetary easing, with 10-year yields projected to decline to around 1.80% [7][10] - It highlights that the recent adjustments in risk appetite have created trading opportunities in government bonds as a hedge against stock market volatility [4][7]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of capital from various stocks, with notable declines in share prices across multiple sectors, suggesting a bearish sentiment in the market. Group 1: Major Stocks with Capital Outflows - Zhongji Xuchuang experienced the highest capital outflow of 3.861 billion, with a share price decline of 8.94% [1][2] - BlueFocus Media saw a capital outflow of 2.275 billion, with a decrease of 8.4% in its stock price [1][2] - Zijin Mining had an outflow of 1.891 billion, reflecting an 8.79% drop in its share price [1][2] - Industrial Fulian faced an outflow of 1.839 billion, with a 3.5% decline in stock value [1][2] - Zhaoyi Innovation reported a capital outflow of 1.673 billion, with a significant drop of 10% in its share price [1][2] Group 2: Additional Stocks with Notable Outflows - Shannon Microelectronics had an outflow of 1.520 billion, with a steep decline of 12.36% [1][2] - BYD experienced a capital outflow of 1.374 billion, with a 4.22% decrease in its stock price [1][2] - Baiwei Storage saw an outflow of 1.183 billion, with a decline of 10.35% [1][2] - Jiangbolong had an outflow of 1.150 billion, with a 10.77% drop in its share price [1][2] - Northern Rare Earth reported an outflow of 1.027 billion, with a 7.62% decline [1][2] Group 3: Other Stocks with Capital Outflows - China Aluminum faced an outflow of 1.016 billion, with a stock price decrease of 9.98% [1][2] - Tianfu Communication had an outflow of 0.977 billion, with a 4% decline in its share price [1][3] - SMIC reported an outflow of 0.953 billion, with a 4.81% drop [1][3] - iFlytek experienced an outflow of 0.797 billion, with a 4.36% decline [1][3] - Wanhua Chemical had an outflow of 0.741 billion, with an 8.68% decrease [1][3]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant declines, with companies like Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Jiangxi Copper seeing drops of 13.38%, 12.63%, and 10.16% respectively [1] - International precious metal markets continue to face severe sell-offs, with spot gold dropping below $4,450 per ounce, marking a new low since January 8, and spot silver erasing all gains for the year, falling to $71.31 per ounce [1] - Domestic commodity futures markets are also seeing widespread declines, with major contracts for silver, palladium, platinum, nickel, tin, copper, and aluminum hitting limit downs [1] Group 2 - Short-term market evaluations of the non-ferrous sector are reassessing the balance between "trend" and "volatility" following previous rapid increases [2] - The nomination process of Waller and the clarity of his policy positions are expected to be key factors influencing commodity prices and the non-ferrous industry [2] - A strengthened "hawkish" stance could potentially reverse "weak dollar" expectations, increasing price volatility for all non-ferrous metals, while the long-term industry logic remains unchanged due to ongoing interest rate cuts and new demand dynamics [2]