Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a reversal in early trading on January 12, 2026, with the CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813) down by 0.63% as of 11:25 AM [1] - Key stocks in the sector showed mixed performance, with Guangwei Composite leading gains at 8.12%, followed by Bluestar Technology at 4.77% and Zhongjian Technology at 4.52%. Hebang Bio led the declines, with Sanmei Co. and Juhua Co. also falling [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized four key areas for 2026: "stability," "expansion," "innovation," and "growth," focusing on stabilizing growth in key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [1] Group 2 - CITIC Construction pointed out that despite rising short-term technical correction risks in the chemical sector, investment opportunities still exist. The outlook remains positive for the cross-year market, focusing on future industry hotspots, AI, semiconductors, and the resource price increase chain [1] - Guohai Securities noted that under the "anti-involution" policy, supply-side expansion in China's chemical industry is expected to slow significantly, potentially leading to a recovery in industry prosperity. The curtailment of disorderly capacity expansion may benefit leading companies with cost and efficiency advantages, marking a long-term upward trend in performance [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index included Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Industry, and Cangge Mining, accounting for a total of 45.31% of the index [2] Group 3 - Investors can also explore investment opportunities in the chemical sector through the Chemical ETF Link Fund (013527) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are expected to have limited upward range and are likely to experience weak oscillations. Key factors to watch include downstream demand, the situation in Venezuela, and crude oil price fluctuations [8][9] - Plastics still face supply - demand contradictions and are expected to trade in a range [10] - Polypropylene (PP) faces significant upward pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [53] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - On January 9, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,674 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.12%. The average price of LDPE was 8,933.33 yuan/ton, up 2.88% from the previous week. The average price of HDPE was 7,022.50 yuan/ton, up 2.52%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6,848.89 yuan/ton, up 3.37%. The LLDPE South China basis was 174.89 yuan/ton, down 0.94% week - on - week, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 249 yuan/ton (- 47) [12] 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month - spreads**: On January 9, 2026, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 249 yuan/ton (- 47), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 41 yuan/ton (- 4), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 290 yuan/ton (+ 51) [17] - **Spot Prices**: Provided detailed spot price data for different varieties (HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE) in various regions, including minimum, maximum, and mainstream prices, as well as their price changes [20][21] - **Cost**: Last week, WTI crude oil closed at $58.78 per barrel, up $1.45 from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at $63.05 per barrel, up $2.25. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [23] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 472 yuan/ton, up 158 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 34 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton [28] - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese polyethylene production was 83.67%, up 0.43 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly polyethylene output was 68.68 tons, up 0.51% week - on - week. The maintenance loss this week was 9.87 tons, down 0.36 tons from the previous week [34] - **2026 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have planned new production capacity in 2026, with a total planned capacity of 550 tons [37] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' polyethylene production lines have been shut down for maintenance, and some of the restart times are undetermined [38] - **Demand**: This week, the overall domestic agricultural film operating rate was 37.89%, down 1.06% from the previous week; the PE packaging film operating rate was 48.96%, up 0.55%, and the PE pipe operating rate was 29.50%, down 0.50% [40] - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 31.5%, with a 2% difference from the annual average. The production ratio of low - pressure film is significantly different from the annual average, currently accounting for 6.9%, with a 3% difference [44] - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 48.48 tons, down 0.16 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33% [46] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11,365 lots, an increase of 12 lots from the previous week [50] 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - On January 9, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,514 yuan/ton, up 166 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week increase of 2.61% [54] 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Prices**: Provided price data for PP granules, PP powder, and other related products on January 9, 2026, as well as their price changes compared with the previous day, week, month, and year [59] - **Basis**: On January 9, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 6,376.67 yuan/ton (+ 3.35%). The PP basis was - 137 yuan/ton (+ 41), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 40 yuan/ton (- 19) [61] - **Month - spreads**: On January 9, 2026, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 212 yuan/ton (- 54), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 49 yuan/ton (- 29), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 261 yuan/ton (+ 83) [69] - **Cost**: Same as the plastic cost data, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices increased, and the anthracite price remained unchanged [73] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 516.36 yuan/ton, up 110.86 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PP was - 428.77 yuan/ton, up 141.48 yuan/ton [78] - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 75.47%, down 1.27 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP granules was 77.92 tons, down 1.69% week - on - week, and the weekly output of PP powder was 6.75 tons, down 2.88% [82] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of enterprises have been shut down for maintenance, and some of the restart times are undetermined [86] - **Demand**: This week, the average downstream operating rate was 52.58% (- 0.18). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 42.92% (- 0.22%), the operating rate of BOPP was 63.24% (unchanged), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.04% (- 0.08%), and the operating rate of pipes was 38.13% (- 0.34%) [88] - **Import and Export Profits**: This week, the polypropylene import profit was - 349.72 US dollars/ton, down 19.02 US dollars/ton from the previous week, and the export profit was - 8.91 US dollars/ton, down 5.17 US dollars/ton [94] - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 46.77 tons (- 4.69%); the inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies decreased by 16.14% week - on - week, the inventory of traders increased by 15.52%, and the port inventory increased by 7.24% [96] - **Finished Product and Raw Material Inventory**: The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 941.95 tons, down 2.15% week - on - week, and the BOPP raw material inventory was 10.64 days, up 2.11% [100] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 15,445 lots, unchanged from the previous week [104]

| 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600309 | 万华化学 | -1.42% | 10.47% | | 601857 | 中国石油 | -0.20% | 7.63% | | 000792 | 盐湖股份 | 2.46% | 6.44% | | 600028 | 中国石化 | -3.73% | 6.44% | | 600938 | 甲国海海 | -0.56% | 5.22% | | 600160 | 巨化股份 | -3.91% | 4.51% | | 000408 | 藏格矿业 | -1.41% | 3.82% | | 600143 | 金发科技 | 3.25% | 3.69% | | 600426 | 华鲁恒升 | -1.53% | 3.31% | | 600989 | 宝幸能源 | -1.77% | 3.27% | 截至1月9日，石化ETF近2年净值上涨49.64%。从收益能力看，截至2026年1月9日，石化ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为15.86%，最长连涨月数为8个月， 最长连涨涨幅为41.60%，上涨月份平均收益率为5.25 ...

Group 1 - Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that China's ethylene production capacity will expand by approximately 29 million tons per year from 2025 to 2029, a significant increase compared to the 24 million tons per year from 2020 to 2024, and more than five times the growth rate from 2000 to 2019 [3] - Over 70% of the new capacity is already in the development stage, indicating a strong pipeline for future growth [3] - The methanol-to-olefins process is experiencing a revival, with eight projects expected to start between Q1 2023 and Q3 2025, adding a total of 4.2 million tons per year of ethylene capacity [3] Group 2 - Steam cracking remains the primary driver of growth, with approximately 23 million tons per year of the upcoming ethylene capacity coming from this process, including both existing refinery upgrades and new greenfield projects [3] - The growth of propane dehydrogenation (PDH) capacity in China is expected to peak in 2025, with an addition of about 5.4 million tons per year, as many planned PDH projects have been shelved due to the country's near self-sufficiency in polypropylene [4] - The increase in polyethylene (PE) self-sufficiency is a key factor driving the surge in ethylene capacity, with China's annual polyethylene imports expected to remain between 14 million and 15 million tons by 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [70]. Core Insights - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are reported at 18,043, 14,171, and 14,478 CNY/ton respectively, with TDI showing a week-on-week increase of 59 CNY/ton [2]. - The average prices for ethane, propane, and coal are 1,165, 4,172, and 520 CNY/ton respectively, with ethane decreasing by 85 CNY/ton and propane increasing by 45 CNY/ton [2]. - The average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,213, 1,724, 3,787, and 2,546 CNY/ton respectively, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 34 CNY/ton and urea increasing by 12 CNY/ton [2]. - The average prices for animal nutrition products such as VA and VE are 62.5 and 54.9 CNY/kg respectively, with no significant changes [2]. Summary by Sections Polyurethane Sector - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 18,043, 14,171, and 14,478 CNY/ton respectively, with TDI showing a week-on-week increase of 59 CNY/ton [2][16][20]. Oil, Coal, and Olefins Sector - Ethane and propane average prices are 1,165 and 4,172 CNY/ton respectively, with ethane decreasing by 85 CNY/ton and propane increasing by 45 CNY/ton [2][24][31]. - The average price for polyethylene is 6,800 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 30 CNY/ton [2]. Coal Chemical Sector - The average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,213, 1,724, 3,787, and 2,546 CNY/ton respectively, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 34 CNY/ton and urea increasing by 12 CNY/ton [2][40][48][49]. Animal Nutrition Sector - The average prices for VA, VE, solid egg amino acid, and liquid egg amino acid are 62.5, 54.9, 17.6, and 14.2 CNY/kg respectively, with no significant changes [2][56][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Plastic**: The supply of plastic is expected to remain loose in 2026, despite some production shifts and minor decreases in supply due to maintenance. The demand from the downstream industries is entering a seasonal off - peak period, with the overall market supply - demand pattern being unfavorable. The price is likely to face pressure before the Spring Festival. The recommended strategies are to take a short position on rebounds in a sideways market, and not to recommend cross - period or cross - variety trading for now [6]. - **Polypropylene**: The polypropylene market is also under price pressure during the off - season. The supply may see marginal changes due to potential PDH plant maintenance, but the overall supply - demand situation is still not optimistic. Similar to plastic, the recommended strategies are to take a short position on rebounds in a sideways market, and not to recommend cross - period or cross - variety trading for now [92][94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Plastic Part Price & Spread - Futures and domestic spot prices have shown some fluctuations, with the 5 - 9 month spread strengthening to - 31, and the basis remaining stable. The import window has been restored, and the import profit of LD is at a relatively high level within the year [6][9]. - The upstream prices have different trends: crude oil is in a low - level oscillation, naphtha is weakly stable, ethylene monomer is weakening, and coal prices are slightly rebounding. The overall profit of PE production has been restored, especially for ethane and ethylene procurement [30][36]. Supply - In 2025, the total effective capacity of PE increased by 16%, and the domestic output increased by 18%. The current overall supply is loose. Although there are some maintenance plans in January, the maintenance plans for February and March are limited, and the supply is expected to remain relatively loose [6]. - The import of Middle East and US sources is concentrated in January, and the overall import may increase at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 [6]. Demand & Inventory - The demand from the downstream industries such as agricultural film and packaging film is entering a seasonal off - peak period. The overall demand from downstream industries shows signs of decline, and the raw material demand is expected to decrease. The overall inventory of PE is not being smoothly destocked, and the confidence of the middle and lower reaches in the future market is average [6]. Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - The basis of polypropylene is weakly oscillating, and the month spread is weakening. The overall profit of production is compressed, with the PDH production valuation remaining at a low level, and the coal - based and propylene - based production processes in a loss state [94][104][129]. - The upstream prices show that crude oil is strengthening at a low level, naphtha is sideways, and propylene is strengthening. Coal prices are rebounding [121]. Supply - In 2025, the total effective capacity of PP increased by 12.7%, and the annual output increased by 16.7%. The supply center has been declining recently, and the maintenance scale in January has increased. The follow - up maintenance scale is expected to increase, and the supply may be marginally supported if the maintenance plans are fulfilled [92]. - The import volume of PP is limited in the short term, and the export volume is expected to remain at a basic level [92]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream开工率 of polypropylene is declining. Although there is some demand release during the Spring Festival period, the off - season demand is difficult to resonate. The overall inventory of PP is not being smoothly destocked, and the inventory in the middle reaches has increased significantly this week [93][94].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience an upward cycle due to the implementation of "anti-involution" policies in China and the accelerated exit of some European facilities [29] - The report highlights the potential for domestic substitution of semiconductor materials from Japan due to rising geopolitical tensions, which could benefit various companies in the sector [5] - The chromium salt industry is undergoing a value reassessment driven by increased demand from AI data centers and commercial aircraft engines, with a projected supply-demand gap of 340,900 tons by 2028 [8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical industry has shown strong relative performance with a 1-month increase of 10.7%, 3-month increase of 9.6%, and a 12-month increase of 45.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3] Price Trends - Key products such as lithium carbonate and polysilicon have seen significant price increases, supported by policy guidance and industry self-discipline [12] - The price of chromium salts has remained stable, with metal chromium priced at 82,000 CNY/ton as of January 9, 2026 [15] Investment Opportunities - Focus on companies with low-cost expansion capabilities, such as Wanhu Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, as well as those in sectors with improving market conditions like chromium salts and phosphates [6][9] - High dividend yield opportunities are identified in state-owned enterprises like China Petroleum and China National Chemical [10] Key Company Tracking - Companies such as Dongfang Shenghong and Huabei Yihua are highlighted for their earnings potential, with projected EPS growth for 2026 [30] - The report tracks specific price movements for various chemicals, including a notable increase in the price of ammonium phosphate and a stable price for urea [17][19]

中盛期货 能化板块周度报告 中盛期货 20260109 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 鲍玉虹 从业资格证号：F03149670 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 中盛期货 聚酯板块数据周报 中盛期货 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普8日再次就伊朗骚乱事件发出威胁，称如再有人员死亡，美国将对伊朗进行"严厉打击"。伊朗的原油出口星 在近年保持韧性，且紧邻霍尔木兹海峡，对全球能源运输咽喉的控制能力较强。一旦地缘冲突升级导致伊朗原油供应中断或霍尔木兹海峡航 运受阻，对全球原油市场的影响较大。 据Lloyds List Intellgence和另一海事安全消息来源周四发布的公告称，一艘驶往俄罗斯的油轮在黑海遭遇无人机袭击，促使其请求土耳 其海岸警卫队援助并改变航线。 3 1 2 中盛期货 聚酯板块期现货价格走势 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普日前称，将让美国大型石油公司前往委内瑞拉投资，维修该国石油基础设施并为美国"创造收益"。这一 表态进一步显露了美方染指委内瑞拉石油资源的企图。不过，美业内人士却普遍认为，目前美国石油企业在委内瑞拉的投资意愿相当低。 按当前披霸的最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant outflow of main capital from various stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with 387 stocks experiencing net outflows for five consecutive days or more, indicating potential investment risks in these companies [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Main Capital Outflow Statistics - The stock with the longest continuous net outflow is Dameng Data, with 23 days of outflows [1]. - Daqin Railway follows with 20 days of net outflows, totaling 2.711 billion yuan [1]. - The total net outflow for Daqin Railway over 20 days is the highest at 2.711 billion yuan, while Xiechuang Data has a net outflow of 1.914 billion yuan over five days [1][2]. Group 2: Stocks with Significant Outflows - The top stocks by net outflow duration include: - Daqin Railway: 20 days, 2.711 billion yuan, 18.68% of trading volume, -6.22% cumulative change [1]. - Dameng Data: 23 days, 0.503 billion yuan, 7.58% of trading volume, 14.15% cumulative change [2]. - Haima Automobile: 12 days, 1.626 billion yuan, 8.26% of trading volume, -18.59% cumulative change [1]. Group 3: Other Notable Stocks - Other stocks with notable outflows include: - Wuzhou Xinchun: 5 days, 1.574 billion yuan, 5.24% of trading volume, 11.62% cumulative change [1]. - Dongshan Precision: 6 days, 1.512 billion yuan, 6.91% of trading volume, -6.80% cumulative change [1]. - Shengtai Electronics: 10 days, 1.377 billion yuan, 8.47% of trading volume, -8.71% cumulative change [1].

Group 1 - The POE film concept index declined by 0.68%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with notable declines from companies such as New Guangyi, *ST Green Kang, and Dingjide [1] - Among the concept stocks, 7 companies experienced price increases, with Changyang Technology, Ningbo Color Master, and Donghua Technology rising by 3.14%, 0.86%, and 0.60% respectively [1] - The top-performing concept sectors included Xiaohongshu concept with a rise of 6.21%, Kuaishou concept at 6.06%, and DRG/DIP at 5.67% [1] Group 2 - The POE film concept saw a net outflow of 472 million yuan from main funds, with 19 stocks experiencing net outflows, and 6 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 30 million yuan [1] - The stock with the highest net outflow was Baofeng Energy, with a net outflow of 186 million yuan, followed by Foster, New Guangyi, and Satellite Chemical with net outflows of 89.65 million yuan, 62.97 million yuan, and 61.71 million yuan respectively [1][2] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Wanhua Chemical, Jizhi Technology, and Changyang Technology, with net inflows of 30.19 million yuan, 16.94 million yuan, and 14.13 million yuan respectively [1][3]