智通财经APP获悉，锂矿股今早继续下挫，截至发稿，赣锋锂业(01772)跌7.35%，报47.16港元；天齐锂 业(09696)跌4.83%，报44.88港元。 消息面上，11月24日，碳酸锂期货主力合约一度跌超3%，最低触及90100元/吨，上周五全合约跌停。 招商期货认为，受去库速度放缓、枧下窝复产消息频传、交易限额调整等因素，盘面存在回调压力，且 12月紧缺情况有所收窄也压制价格进一步上行。 高盛将赣锋锂业H股评级从中性下调至卖出，理由是锂现货价格面临下行风险，因下游市场短期反馈欠 佳以及补库存增速放缓。高盛分析师团队在研究报告中指出，尽管锂市场基本面已显著改善，供需平衡 预计将在明年上半年保持紧张，但储能系统库存周期延长可能成为抵消因素。该行将2025年下半年中国 碳酸锂基准现货价格预测下调至每吨9500美元，较此前预期低14%。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs downgraded Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares from "Neutral" to "Sell" due to poor short-term feedback from the downstream market and slowing inventory replenishment, leading to downside risks for lithium spot prices [1][6] - The firm predicts a 12% shortage in global lithium capacity relative to demand in the second half of 2025, transitioning to a 10% surplus by the second half of 2026 [7] - Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for the benchmark spot price of lithium carbonate in China for the second half of 2025 to $9,500 per ton, a 14% decrease from previous expectations [6][8] Group 2 - The downgrade reflects concerns about the mid-term supply-demand balance in the lithium market, despite significant improvements in the fundamentals [6] - The firm has significantly reduced its earnings forecasts for Ganfeng Lithium, cutting estimates for 2026-2027 by 36%-42% and predicting a loss in 2025 [6][8] - Goldman Sachs maintains a sell rating for Ganfeng Lithium's A-shares and Tianqi Lithium's A and H-shares, with a target price of HKD 32 for Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares [6][8]

近期，多家国内外机构发布2026年度策略报告。各家金融机构报告显示，明年中国经济将延续稳健增长 态势。 多家机构对2026年中国经济走势形成积极共识，认为在政策支持、结构升级与潜力释放的多种利好叠加 之下，经济将持续稳健上升。 光大证券首席宏观分析师 赵格格：在超大规模市场和强大产业体系的协同作用下，我国还有较大的经 济增长潜力与提质升级空间，宏观政策工具箱储备充足。 外资机构普遍预测，明年中国经济将在政策支持下保持稳健增长。摩根士丹利认为，在适度的宽松政 策、渐进的再平衡以及有节制的"反内卷"措施下，2026年中国经济将温和增长。瑞银预计2026年国内将 施行更加精准的政策支持，经济活动整体将保持韧性。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室亚太经济学家 菲利普·怀亚特：比如为企业提供能源成本方面的优惠或补 贴，面向消费者的补贴；对首套房购房者的支持等，这些都属于"定向支持"。 此外，"十五五"规划建议也令外资机构充满信心。高盛认为，规划建议体现了中国将进一步提升先进制 造业竞争力，提振出口的决心和能力。基于此，高盛上调了对中国出口增速和实际GDP增速的预测。 与此同时，内需市场的潜力正加速释放。随着一系列促消费、惠民 ...

Core Insights - Over a thousand listed companies have been investigated by institutional investors since November, indicating a high level of interest in the market [3][4] - The top three companies receiving the most institutional attention are Ninebot, Rongbai Technology, and Lens Technology, with Ninebot leading at 179 institutions [5][6] - Despite a recent pullback in tech stocks, sectors such as application software, integrated circuits, and electronic components continue to attract significant institutional research [12][13] Institutional Research Activity - As of the week of November 17 to 23, over 400 listed companies disclosed records of institutional investor investigations, maintaining a high level of research activity [4][5] - The top ten companies by the number of institutional inquiries include: 1. Ninebot: 179 institutions 2. Rongbai Technology: 137 institutions 3. Lens Technology: 121 institutions 4. Yingtang Zhikong: 61 institutions 5. Yinglian Co.: 49 institutions 6. Qiaocheng Ultrasonic: 47 institutions 7. Tainkang: 41 institutions 8. AVIC Heavy Machinery: 40 institutions 9. World: 38 institutions 10. Obsidian: 33 institutions [5][6] Sector Focus - The focus of institutional research has been on hard technology sectors, particularly in areas such as AI, robotics, and consumer electronics [12][13] - Companies like Lens Technology are optimistic about their future in the robotics sector, projecting significant growth in humanoid and quadruped robot shipments [6] - Institutions are particularly interested in AI technology, which is expected to transition into practical applications in the coming year, with opportunities in computing power, cloud infrastructure, and various applications [13]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple domestic and foreign institutions predict that China's economy will continue to show steady growth in 2026, supported by policy measures, structural upgrades, and the release of potential [1][3][4] Group 1: Economic Growth Predictions - Foreign institutions generally forecast that China's economy will maintain steady growth in 2026 due to policy support [3] - Morgan Stanley anticipates moderate growth driven by appropriate easing policies and gradual rebalancing [3] - UBS expects more precise policy support to enhance economic resilience [3] Group 2: Structural and Policy Support - The chief macro analyst at Everbright Securities highlights significant growth potential and quality upgrade space in China's economy due to its vast market and strong industrial system [4] - UBS emphasizes targeted support measures such as energy cost subsidies for businesses and consumer incentives [6] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth, citing the "14th Five-Year Plan" as a confidence booster for advanced manufacturing competitiveness [6] Group 3: Trade and Domestic Demand - The dual drivers of foreign trade and domestic demand are crucial for high-quality economic growth, with exports remaining a core support force [7] - Analysts from CITIC Securities predict stronger overall exports in 2026 compared to 2025, with a focus on mid-to-high-end manufacturing competitiveness [9] - The potential of the domestic market is accelerating, with consumer and livelihood policies expected to play a key role in expanding domestic demand [9] Group 4: Innovation and Stability - Analysts identify "innovation" as a key theme for the economy in 2026, with a shift from traditional factor-driven growth to technology-driven growth [14] - The IMF representative notes that expanding consumption is a priority for the government, contributing to high-quality growth [11] - UBS economists highlight the stability of domestic policies as a solid foundation for innovation and a crucial guarantee for steady economic progress [18][20] Group 5: Open and Sustainable Development - The concept of institutional openness in finance, particularly in RMB internationalization and capital market openness, is seen as a positive factor for economic vitality [22] - The emphasis on green finance and support for high-tech industries is expected to enhance the overall economic landscape [22]

Economic Outlook - Multiple domestic and foreign institutions predict that China's economy will maintain a steady growth trajectory in 2026, supported by policy measures, structural upgrades, and the release of potential [1][3] - Morgan Stanley anticipates moderate growth in 2026 due to appropriate easing policies and gradual rebalancing, while UBS expects more precise policy support to enhance economic resilience [3] Policy Support - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a confidence booster for foreign institutions, indicating China's commitment to enhancing advanced manufacturing competitiveness and boosting exports [7] - Targeted support measures, such as energy cost subsidies for businesses and consumer incentives, are expected to play a crucial role in sustaining economic activity [7] Export and Manufacturing - China's manufacturing and export sectors are showing strong resilience, with exports remaining a core support for economic growth [8] - Analysts note that improvements in economic structure and technological advancements are lowering trade costs, stabilizing profit margins for export enterprises [9] Domestic Demand - The potential of the domestic market is accelerating, with various consumer promotion and livelihood policies expected to be key drivers for expanding domestic demand in 2026 [11] - The government has prioritized expanding consumption, which is viewed as a direction for high-quality growth not only for 2026 but for the next decade [13] New Consumption Trends - The rise of new consumption sectors is injecting fresh momentum into economic growth, with expectations for brands to gain more market recognition and expand internationally [15][17]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs faced a dramatic situation in the A-share market, with all 26 major A-shares it heavily invested in declining amid a bull market, with 13 stocks dropping over 20% [1] - The stark contrast between Goldman Sachs' performance in the A-share market and its success in the US market, where its holdings reached a total market value of $740 billion, highlights the unique dynamics of global capital markets [1] - The A-share market experienced its largest single-day drop since April 7, with around 2,500 stocks declining over 3%, particularly in the technology sector [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs provided nine reasons for the decline in the US stock market, including the exhaustion of Nvidia's positive news and rising risks in private credit [3] - The adjustment of margin financing rates for popular stocks like SMIC and Baiwei Storage to zero has led to significant deleveraging in the market [5] - Historical data indicates that market bottoms often have identifiable characteristics, with past instances showing a combination of policy and market bottoms [9] Group 3 - The current market environment is supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the market, with sectors like consumption and infrastructure showing relative resilience [12] - The investment difficulties faced by Goldman Sachs in the A-share market reflect the challenges international capital faces in adapting to emerging markets, particularly due to information asymmetry [12] - The collective "water and soil incompatibility" of foreign capital in the A-share market is not limited to Goldman Sachs, as evidenced by other foreign investors experiencing significant losses [14]

【文/观察者网 陶立烽】 横亘在非洲南部两国、长达1860公里的坦赞铁路，西方人当年叫它"竹子铁路"（bamboo railway），意 思是不靠谱。1976年它开始运营时，连接了赞比亚的铜矿和坦桑尼亚的达累斯萨拉姆港。50年过去，铁 轨锈蚀，列车晃晃悠悠，远未满负荷运转。现在它要复活了。 1965年11月11日改变了一切。那天当时的英国殖民地罗德西亚（现津巴布韦）的白人总理伊恩·史密斯 宣布单方面独立，同时拒绝把权力交给黑人。赞比亚是内陆国家，出海只能走罗得西亚的铁路。史密斯 想用这个卡住黑人掌权的赞比亚，逼它别支持罗德西亚的黑人解放运动。 赞比亚总统卡翁达和支持反殖民运动的坦桑尼亚总统尼雷尔很清楚这意味着什么。赞比亚的铜要运出 去，就得走罗得西亚和南非的港口。被人掐着脖子，谈不上独立。赞比亚需要另一条出海通道——从东 边走，通向印度洋。 当地时间11月20日下午，中、坦、赞领导人再次聚首，在赞比亚首都卢萨卡共同出席坦赞铁路激活项目 开工仪式。 一年多前，中、坦、赞元首在北京共同见证签署《坦赞铁路激活项目谅解备忘录》。一个多月前，中国 土木工程集团于9月29日签下协议，11亿美元先期投资，再追加2.38亿美 ...

记者丨 黎雨桐 吴斌 编辑丨曾静娇 北京时间21日凌晨， 欧美股市走势分化，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨，美股则上演过山车式行情，集体高开而后一路下行，三大指数悉数收 跌。 截至美股收盘，道指跌0.84%报45752.26点，标普500指数跌1.56%报6538.76点，纳指跌2.15%报22078.05点。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 45752.26 | 22078.05 | 6538.76 | | -386.51 -0.84% -486.18 -2.15% -103.40 -1.56% | | | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7422.77 | 24073.75 | 6552.00 | | -250.44 -3.26% -648.00 -2.62% -109.50 -1.64% | | | 大型科技股集体下跌，万得美国科技七巨头指数下跌1.74%。个股方面，英伟达跌超3%，亚马逊、特斯拉跌逾2%， 微软、谷歌跌逾1%，苹果 跌近1%，脸书跌0.19%。 | 资料 成分 | 资讯 相关基金 | 月度收益 | | ...

| 脸书(META PLATF | 589.215 | -0.19% | | --- | --- | --- | | META.O | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 266.250 | -0.86% | | AAPL.O | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET). | 289.980 | -1.03% | | GOOG.O | | | | 微软(MICROSOFT | 478.430 - | -1.60% | | MSFT.O | | | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 395.045 | -2.21% | | TSLA.O | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 217.140 | -2.49% | | AMZN.O | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 180.640 | -3.15% | | NVDA.O | | | 银行股全线走低，摩根大通、高盛跌超1%，花旗、摩根士丹利跌超2%。 芯片股表现疲软，费城半导体指数跌4.77%，美光科技跌超10%，超威半导体跌逾7%，拉姆研究跌超6%。 北京时间21日凌晨，欧美股市走势分化，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨，美股则上演过山车式行情，集体高开而后一路 ...