证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 [Table_Title] 美伊局势扰动加剧，宏观带动金属价格上行 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：美以开始对伊朗进行打击，避险情绪上行 带动黄金走强 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 4.59%至 5,296.40 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 22.15%至 94.39 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上涨 3.41%至 1,147.90 元/克，SHFE 白银上涨 16.36%至 23,019.00 元/千克。 本周金银比下跌 14.37%至 56.11。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 781,154.27 金衡盎 司，SLV 白银 ETF 持仓 减少 1,586,043.90 盎司。 周一，美国 12 月工厂订单月率 -0.7%，预期-0.5%，前值 2.70%。美国 2 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数 0.2，前值-1.2。 周二，美国 12 月 S&P/CS20 座大城市未季调房价指数年 率 1.4%，预期 1.4%，前值 1.39%。美国 ...

本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 4.59%至 5,296.40 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 22.15%至 94.39 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上涨 3.41%至 1,147.90 元/克，SHFE 白银上涨 16.36%至 23,019.00 元/千克。 [Table_Title] 美伊局势扰动加剧，宏观带动金属价格上行 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: 本周金银比下跌 14.37%至 56.11。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 781,154.27 金衡盎 司，SLV 白银 ETF 持仓 减少 1,586,043.90 盎司。 证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 ►贵金属：美以开始对伊朗进行打击，避险情绪上行 带动黄金走强 周一，美国 12 月工厂订单月率 -0.7%，预期-0.5%，前值 2.70%。美国 2 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数 0.2，前值-1.2。 周二，美国 12 月 S&P/CS20 座大城市未季调房价指数年 率 1.4%，预期 1.4%，前值 1.39%。美国 ...

证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 SAC：S1350525120001 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 节后库存累积，铜铝价格短期或迎来震荡 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2026/2/23-2026/2/27） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜 ： 节 后 大 幅 累 库 ， 铜 价 短 期 或 迎 来 震 荡 。 本 周 伦 铜 / 沪 铜 / 美 铜 涨 跌 幅 分 别 为 +5.16%/+3.53%/+3.25%。供给端，智利 1 月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trading activity of various ETFs, particularly in the technology and materials sectors, remains robust, with significant transaction volumes reported for both domestic and cross-border ETFs. Group 1: Domestic ETFs - The active trading of domestic ETFs includes the following: - Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) with a trading volume of 1.847 billion yuan and a price decrease of 1.25% [2] - Nonferrous Metals ETF (512400) showing a trading volume of 1.355 billion yuan and a price increase of 1.5% [2] - Power Grid Equipment ETF (159326) with a trading volume of 1.280 billion yuan and a price decrease of 1.67% [2] - Other notable ETFs include Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516) with a trading volume of 1.006 billion yuan and a price decrease of 2.77% [2], and Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) with a trading volume of 0.951 billion yuan and a price decrease of 2.73% [2]. Group 2: Cross-Border ETFs - The cross-border ETF market shows significant activity, particularly: - Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) with a trading volume of 3.451 billion yuan and no price change [4] - Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) with a trading volume of 2.749 billion yuan and a price increase of 0.15% [4] - Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) with a trading volume of 2.158 billion yuan and a price decrease of 1.06% [4]. Group 3: Rare Earth ETFs - Rare Earth ETFs are experiencing notable performance: - Rare Earth ETF (159713) increased by 2.7% with a trading volume of 0.173 billion yuan [6] - The ETF tracks the China Securities Rare Earth Industry Index, which reflects a high concentration of companies involved in rare earth mining, processing, and trading [7]. - The index's major constituents include: - Northern Rare Earth (600111) with a weight of 14.90% [8] - Goldwind Technology (002202) with a weight of 7.08% [8] - Xiamen Tungsten (600549) with a weight of 6.81% [8].

【导读】港股2月收官，三大指数集体收涨！ 值得注意的是，长飞光纤光缆2月涨幅接近80%。 | 06869 长飞光纤光缆 · | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日收费 02/27 16:08:18 | | | ls 3 42 X | | | 148.800 + | 最 高 | | 149.700 今 开 | 129.000 | | +13.600 +10.06% | 最低 | | 123.400 昨 收 | 135.200 | | 成交额 | 91.01亿 市盈率TTM | | 196.31 总市值 → | 1231.92亿 | | A股 231.31 -4.89 -2.07% 溢价(H/A) -43.62% | | | | | | E MSCI中国指数调整今日盘后生效!新纳入长飞光纤光缆、小马智 ... | | | | | | 图层 | 轮证 评论 资讯 | | 分析 公司 | | | 1D ▼ 5日 日K 月K | | | 室K 年K 1分钟 ▼ | 음 | | 153.2 | | 13.28% 15:59 146.400 | | 1K ▲ | | | ...

A股2月收官！沪指月线斩获3连阳，春节后市场交投持续活跃，"日成交超万亿"已成常态。从板块来看，热点聚焦度显著提升，涨价题材大放异彩，化工、 有色金属表现突出。 2月最后一个交易日（2月27日），A股三大指数涨跌不一，全市场超3200只个股上涨，沪深京三市成交额2.51万亿元，较昨日小幅缩量504亿元。 盘面上，小金属狂飙突进，稀土持续涨价，湖南黄金等9股狂掀涨停潮，有色ETF（159876）场内涨幅最高上探3.82%。磷化工风口叠加TDI行情催化，化工 ETF（516020）斩获4连阳，继续刷新2022年1月以来的阶段高点。 算力方向继续活跃！中国AI调用量首超美国，国产算力有望受益，重点布局国产AI产业链的科创人工智能ETF（589520）场内价格拉升2.03%；云计算进入 密集涨价周期，大数据ETF（516700）场内价格劲涨2.05%；华为云码道公测，盘古生态再扩容，重仓软件开发行业的信创ETF基金（562030）场内价格上 涨1.76%，收复5日、10日均线。 全球AI发展驱动电力需求激增，叠加"HALO交易"加持，电力ETF（159146）场内再涨2.64%连创上市新高，基金经理曹旭辰指出，伴随A ...

2月27日，港股三大指数止跌回暖，恒指涨0.95%报26630点，国指、恒科指数分别上涨0.51%及0.56%。 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 涨跌幅 ^ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国企指数 | a profit | 8859.49 | +45.20 +0.51% | | 800100 | | | | | 恒生科技指数 | monutin | 5137.84 | +28.51 +0.56% | | 800700 | | | | | 恒生指数 | | 26630.54 | +249.52 +0.95% | | 800000 | ਲ | | | 具体盘面上，昨日领衔大市下跌的权重科技股、大金融股多数反弹上涨，煤炭股午后涨幅进一步加大，生物医药股、钢铁股、电力股、石油股、电信股、影 视股多数表现活跃。航空股全天低迷，三大航空股领跌；半导体存储概念股部分表现弱势，电力设备股下跌，军工股、苹果概念股、建材水泥股普跌。 | 行业热力图 × | 领涨板块 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The volatility of aluminum prices has decreased, and the drag on alumina remains. The alumina market is expected to fluctuate weakly, while aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. The global aluminum supply-demand shortage pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the verification of consumption and supply-demand expectations [5][6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary - **Alumina**: Supply-side production cuts in January and February narrowed the market surplus but did not reverse it. The cost and inventory pressure still drag down prices, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The global trend of "de-dollarization" continues, and the volatility of aluminum prices is decreasing. The global aluminum supply-demand shortage pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to macro guidance and the verification of consumption and supply-demand expectations [6] - **Strategy Recommendations**: For alumina futures, expect weak oscillations; for aluminum prices, expect high-level oscillations, and be vigilant of increased price volatility in late March. Consider arbitrage strategies such as buying physical aluminum for delivery and shorting futures, and going long on LME aluminum and shorting Shanghai aluminum. For options, adopt a wait-and-see approach [7] 2. Alumina Surplus Narrowed but Cost and Inventory Drag Remain - **Raw Material End** - **Domestic Ore**: In January 2026, domestic bauxite production was 5.34 million tons. In February, production was expected to decline seasonally, and prices remained stable [10] - **Imported Ore**: In February, the price of imported bauxite continued to fall. Guinea's bauxite supply is expected to increase significantly in 2026, and the price may continue to be under pressure [12] - **Alumina Supply**: In February, the alumina supply-side operating rate continued to decline. The shutdown of a production line in the north affected the market, and the overall inventory increased. The import window was mostly closed, and the net export volume was about 80,000 - 90,000 tons. Future production capacity changes include the resumption of overseas production and the delayed commissioning of domestic new capacity [23][27] - **Cost**: In January 2026, the national weighted average full cost of alumina was 2,667 yuan/ton. In February, the cost was expected to continue to decline [33] 3. Aluminum Price Volatility Decreased, Focus on Demand Expectation Fulfillment in Fundamentals - **Triple Attributes Driving Aluminum Prices**: From late January to early February, aluminum prices fluctuated significantly due to financial and capital factors. In the future, the financial and strategic attributes of aluminum will still drive prices, but the influence of the commodity attribute may increase in March [38] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Supply**: Overseas, new projects are being launched, and some plants are resuming or reducing production. In China, new projects are progressing, and the supply elasticity is low in the medium term. The cost of electrolytic aluminum production decreased in January, and the profit was high, but it is expected to shrink in February. The import loss may suppress the net import volume [45][53][54] - **Post-Festival Aluminum Inventory**: At the end of February, the total social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars increased significantly, and the apparent consumption decreased year-on-year. The overseas market had a different inventory situation, and changes in the US 232 aluminum tariff may have a limited impact on the global aluminum price [58][61] - **Domestic Terminal Consumption** - **New Energy Demand**: In the first quarter, there may be a rush to export photovoltaic components. The demand for aluminum in transportation is expected to increase year-on-year, and the demand for aluminum in the power sector is also growing, with significant potential for energy storage [69][72][81] - **Traditional Industries**: The demand for aluminum in the real estate market remains weak, and the production schedule of home appliances decreased year-on-year. However, the export of aluminum products is expected to increase [86][94][98] 4. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Alumina**: The supply-side has marginal reduction, but the surplus pattern and cost and inventory pressure will still drag down prices. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly [102] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The influence of macro and capital sentiment has weakened, and the global supply-demand shortage pattern remains unchanged. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in March, and the domestic and foreign supply-demand differentiation may widen the price gap [104]

天弘中证工业有色金属主题指数基金经理贺雨轩表示，我们认为市场普遍把工业有色定义为"纯周期"行 业，隐含着对其部分成长性的忽视（19~21年的新能源车发展浪潮，使得纯周期的金属品种锂钴镍成为 了"能源金属"，相关上市公司在那一轮的上行期阶段享受了"成长股"估值），而工业有色金属（铜铝为 主）在这一轮的成长性会在业绩上行持续一段时间之后逐步被市场所认知，相应地，对其的估值也会经 历从"周期资产估值"转向"成长资产估值"，最终大概率迎来"戴维斯双击"（业绩上行，叠加估值扩 张）。基于此，我们对工业有色金属行业整体在2026年、乃至2027年的表现都报有比较强的信心。 数据显示，截至2026年2月25日，中证工业有色金属主题指数（H11059）前十大权重股分别为洛阳钼 业、北方稀土、中国铝业、兴业银锡、厦门钨业、云铝股份、铜陵有色、江西铜业、西部矿业、东阳 光，前十大权重股合计占比54.46%。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意，历史持仓不 代表现在和未来） 截至2月27日13:43，中证工业有色金属主题指数（H11059）大涨3.72%。天弘中证工业有色金属主题指 数基金（A:017192/C:01719 ...

这不是一次简单的周期性反弹。在利润新高的背后，工业有色金属的底层逻辑正在发生深刻重构—— 从"宏观波动率的买单者"转变为"制造业升级的卖铲人"。天弘中证工业有色金属主题指数基金2025年A类 份额过去一年净值增长率达93.08%，C类份额过去一年达92.60%，同期业绩比较基准涨幅为90.05%，正是 这一逻辑变迁的集中映射。 图一：天弘中证工业有色金属主题指数发起A净值表现 2025年，有色金属行业迎来历史性时刻。中国有色金属工业协会数据显示，规模以上有色金属工业企业利 润总额突破5000亿元大关，达到5284.5亿元，同比增长25.6%，创下历史新高。其中，铝、铜两大品种对行 业利润增长的贡献率分别达35%和20%，成为行业盈利增长的核心支柱。 | 阶段 | 净值增长 率(1) | 净值增长 | 业绩比较 基准收益 | 业绩比较 基准收益 率标准差 | (1)-(3) | (2)-(4) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 率标准差 | | | | | | | | (2) | 率(3) | (4) | | | | 过去三个月 | 18.4 ...