Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in commodities driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which may lead to rising prices for oil and precious metals in 2026 [2][5][6] - The A-share market is expected to experience short-term volatility due to geopolitical factors, but will likely refocus on domestic fundamentals and policy expectations in the medium term [3][15] - The report highlights a significant investment in AI applications by major domestic internet companies, indicating a competitive landscape focused on user habit formation and commercial viability [9][12] Market Overview - The report lists a "March Gold Stock Portfolio" featuring companies such as Poly Real Estate Group, CITIC Hanzhong, and Mindray Medical, indicating a focus on sectors like real estate, transportation, and healthcare [1][7] - The A-share market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4162.88, up 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06% [1] - The report notes that the steel industry performed well, with a 3.37% increase, while sectors like construction materials and telecommunications saw declines [1] Commodity Insights - The report anticipates that geopolitical events will significantly impact oil and certain petrochemical product prices, with a focus on the implications of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [5][29] - It is projected that Brent crude oil prices could exceed $80 per barrel due to potential supply disruptions from Iran, with historical comparisons to the 2022 Ukraine conflict [5][29] - The chemical industry is advised to focus on low-valuation leading companies and sectors benefiting from price increases under the "anti-involution" policy [28][33] AI Industry Developments - Major domestic internet companies invested over 4.5 billion yuan in promoting AI applications during the Spring Festival, marking a shift towards practical applications and user engagement [9][12] - The report highlights the rapid evolution of domestic AI models, with significant advancements in performance and market application, indicating a dual development path towards general models and vertical industry applications [10][12] - Concerns about AI replacing human jobs are noted, but the report emphasizes that current AI capabilities are more about enhancement rather than replacement [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the AI sector and those involved in the development of general models and industry-specific AI agents, such as MINIMAX-WP and iFLYTEK [13][12] - It also recommends monitoring traditional chemical leaders that are adapting to new materials and benefiting from improving industry conditions [33]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4163 | 0.39 | 0.56 | 1.98 | | 深证综指 | 2764 | 0.3 | 1.67 | 3.1 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | -0.49 | -0.24 | 6.25 | | 中盘指数 | 0.95 | 1.7 | 25.16 | | 小盘指数 | 0.95 | 1.92 | 18.74 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 小金属Ⅱ | 7.69 | 16.7 | 74.62 | | 焦炭Ⅱ | 4.86 | 12.97 | 28.07 | | 普钢Ⅱ | 4.11 | 9.76 | 12.59 | | 酒店餐饮 | 3.92 | 2.52 | 11.1 | | 燃气Ⅱ | 3.14 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨海运 [Table_Title] 油运地缘期权初兑现，长锦控盘致单边市 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 需求端，美伊冲突升级，战争风险的提升叠加霍尔木兹海峡关闭风险的走阔，油运行业景气有 望进一步提升，若冲突缓解，带来的是原油运输需求合规化的提升，亦将利好行业；供给端， 韩国长锦商船的"搅局"给行业格局带来较大变化，短时间内，长锦商船将自身控制运力提升 且压而不用，即期市场可用运力受限，运价不断创新高。总的来看，油轮股地缘冲突带来的催 化，以及长锦商船"搅局"带来格局端超预期发展，继续推荐核心标的招商轮船、中远海能。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 SAC：S0490512020001 SFC：BQK468 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 油运地缘期权初兑现，长锦控盘致单边市 [Table_Summary2] 运价走势复盘：油运再破高位 油运高位再涨：本周克拉克森平均 VLCC-TCE 上涨 40.1%至 200k 美元/天。集运节后回暖： 本周外 ...

油运专家解读：集运资本重塑 VLCC 份额的背景与未来 20260226 摘要 长锦商船通过收购二手船和期租锁定迅速扩张 VLCC 船队，控制全球 24%的运力，显著改变了传统油运市场分散的格局，并获得地中海航运 MAC 的资本支持。 VLCC 日租金飙升至 17.7 万美元，地缘政治风险（如伊朗军演和美伊谈 判受阻）推高风险溢价，布伦特原油期货价格上涨 5.9%，风险溢价在 运价中同步体现。 印度减少俄罗斯原油进口，转向美国和中东采购，导致运输距离拉长， 对合规运力需求增加，预计 2026 年 VLCC 合规贸易需求增幅可达 5%~6%。 传统油运市场集中度低，CR10 份额为 44%，长锦商船的扩张改变了 "船东弱、租家强"的博弈结构，推动 VLCC 市场出现"船东成为定价 者"的趋势，租家为锁定运力接受溢价。 二手船收购推动船价上涨，10 年以上船龄的二手船成交价高于 12 月估 值，反映市场对可用运力的争夺和运价上涨预期，本轮收购耗资约 15- 30 亿美元。 Q&A 2026 年初 VLCC 运价大幅上行的核心驱动因素是什么，关键数据体现在哪些 方面？ 运价暴涨主要由三个推手共同驱动。第一，船舶被集 ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 24 February 2026 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Tanker Shipping What to make of the YTD tanker TCE and equity frenzy? And will India and China revert to old habits? Tanker shipping remains i ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, are impacting global markets, especially commodities and inflation risks. [1][2] - **Key Focus**: The shift in US policy towards domestic issues due to midterm election pressures may lead to external conflicts being used to alleviate internal political and economic pressures. [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Price Impact**: Rising oil prices are expected to elevate the Producer Price Index (PPI) and subsequently the Consumer Price Index (CPI), benefiting consumer sectors with pricing power. [1][2] - **Market Transmission Pathway**: The main transmission pathway of the US-Iran conflict is identified as "conflict escalation → oil prices → global inflation → interest rates → stock valuations." The baseline assumption is that while the conflict may persist, oil prices will remain manageable, limiting disturbances to the A-share market. [1][2] - **Military Investment Opportunities**: The military sector is viewed as an "event-driven" investment opportunity, focusing on high-end military trade, particularly in advanced fighter jets and strategic transport aircraft. [1][5][6] Additional Important Insights - **Commodity Rotation**: Historical patterns indicate a rotation from gold to copper and oil, with current trends showing increases in precious metals and industrial metals. If this rotation extends to oil, input inflation risks will rise significantly. [3][4] - **Coal Market Dynamics**: The coal market is entering a phase of value reassessment due to supply disruptions and policy shifts in Indonesia, with potential for improved profitability in coal chemical projects when oil prices exceed $50 per barrel. [2][17][18] - **Geopolitical Conflict and Metal Pricing**: The US-Iran conflict is reinforcing the narrative that geopolitical tensions and de-globalization are fundamentally altering metal pricing dynamics, particularly for precious and strategic metals. [11][12] Sector-Specific Insights - **Oil and Gas Sector**: Short-term beneficiaries include upstream oil and gas assets, with a focus on small to mid-cap exploration companies. The midstream sector is expected to manage cost pressures better than anticipated. [9][10] - **Chemical Industry**: Companies like Wanhua Chemical are positioned to benefit from rising prices in MDI and TDI, with significant production capacities in the Middle East. [16] - **Electric Utilities**: The geopolitical conflict is likely to provide indirect benefits to defensive utility sectors, particularly hydropower, with clear safety margins emerging in certain sub-sectors. [20][21] Investment Recommendations - **Resource and Transportation**: Focus on resource sectors, shipping, and precious metals, particularly gold, as potential beneficiaries of the current geopolitical climate. [4][22] - **Military and Defense**: Emphasize investments in military technology and equipment manufacturers, particularly those involved in high-end military exports. [5][6] - **Coal and Chemical Stocks**: Monitor companies like Yanzhou Coal and China Chemical for potential upside due to supply chain disruptions and rising commodity prices. [19][16] Conclusion The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, are expected to have significant implications for various sectors, including oil, coal, chemicals, and military industries. Investors are advised to focus on sectors that can leverage these dynamics for potential growth and profitability.

航运行业：伊朗局势升级，保障原油运 输成关注焦点，油运运价持续景气 事件：伊朗局势近期快速升级，目前美国和以色列对伊朗展开了持续的远程打 击，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊确认遇害。伊朗方面的还击导致巴林、阿联酋、卡 塔尔、沙特、科威特、约旦等多地响起爆炸声，位于巴林的美国第五舰队服务 中心遭到导弹袭击。 受战争影响，伊朗宣布封锁霍尔木兹海峡，目该地区的航运已陷入停滞状态， 多个欧洲国家政府已向其在途的悬挂本国国旗的油轮发出紧急指令，要求严禁 通过霍尔木兹海峡，以规避当前局势升级带来的安全风险。 点评： 局势升级前，油运已经处于高景气度状态：今年以来，原油运输景气度持续提 升。而近期受伊朗局势升级的预期影响，VLCC-TCE 在冲突爆发前就已经攀升 至超 20 万美元/天的高水平。 地缘政治方面，伊朗局势自去年以来一直不稳定，且本次冲突正式爆发前，美 方就已经通过多种方式持续对伊朗进行施压，市场对冲突升级的担忧不断发 酵，带动了行业风险溢价的提升。 伊朗局势升级或进一步提升油运行业风险溢价：局势的升级目前已经导致伊朗 宣布封锁霍尔木兹海峡，市场对中东原油供应中断的担忧急剧升温。霍尔木兹 海峡是波斯湾通往印度洋的唯一海道 ...

美以突袭伊朗，油运地缘期权有望加速兑 现 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 国家/地区 中国 行业 交通运输行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 01 日 看好（维持） 交通运输行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 尹嘉骐 执业证书编号：S0860525120006 yinjiaqi@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 美军突袭委内瑞拉，油运供需望继续改 善：——美国突袭委内瑞拉事件点评 2026-01-09 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 美以突袭伊朗，加剧地缘冲突。2026 年 2 月 28 日，美国以色列先后对伊朗发动的 军事打击，后续引发伊朗大规模报复，中东地区局势急剧升级。2024 年 12 月以 来，美国持续加强对伊朗影子船队的制裁力度，美伊矛盾升级或驱动美国对伊朗制 裁进一步升级。我们尝试推演油运市场未来可能发生的三种情景，但考虑到地缘政 治的复杂程度，无法完全覆盖。若从最终结果来看，我们认为，油运景气在当前中 东局势影响下或继续提升，油运地缘期权有望加速兑现。 ⚫ ...

行业研究 2、VLCC 现货运价冲高至 20 万，期租租金涨至 10 万。本周克拉克森 VLCC- TCE 指数 20.0 万美元，周环比+40.1%；其中，中东-中国航线报于 22.3 万美 元/天，周环比+42%；西非-中国航线报于 18.4 万美元/天，周环比+39%；美湾 -中国航线报于 13.3 万美元/天，周环比+35%。一年期 VLCC 期租价格也继续 涨至 10 万美元/天，周环比+9%。 3、投资建议：此前报告我们提出，三大因素致 VLCC 市场正面临近乎空前的 高涨情绪：1）美伊冲突局势骤然升级，或推升航运资产风险溢价；2）长锦大 举"扫货"，一跃成为全球最大 VLCC 经营商，显著提振市场情绪与信心，船 东集中度提升有望增强议价能力；3）委内瑞拉原油转向合规市场、印度承诺 停止购买俄油、欧盟提议对俄实施全面海上服务禁令，制裁强化增加合规贸易 需求。我们继续强调年度策略观点，看好油运市场上行景气，行业供给端持续 真空（今年少量 VLCC 交付的影响有限），需求催化仍待兑现，运价上涨弹性 充分，继续推荐油轮板块，中远海能 H/A、招商轮船、招商南油。 （二）快递：反内卷延续，行业件量增速好于 ...

板块市场回顾 上周（2026/2/21-2026/2/27）交运指数上涨 3.3%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.1%，跑赢大盘 2.2%，排名 14/29。交运子板 块中航运板块涨幅最大(+11.9%)，机场板块跌幅最大(-1.8%)。 行业观点 快递：部分快递公司受益反内卷涨价影响。上周（2 月 16 日-2 月 22 日）邮政快递累计揽收量约 8.06 亿件，同比- 77.8%,环比-64.7%；累计投递量约 6.3 亿件，同比-83.7%,环比-81.1%。在监管底线较明确、反内卷思路延续的背景 下，行业价格大幅下探概率不高，同时考虑去年同期基数偏低，当前价格同比改善仍有望对利润端形成支撑，看好龙 头企业份额持续提升，关注中通快递，极兔海外市场保持较高成长持续看好。 物流：化工品价格看涨，看好化工物流。本周中国化工产品价格指数(CCPI)为 4041 点，同比-8.1%，环比-持平。本 周对二甲苯（PX）开工率为 93.25%，环比持平，同比+1.9pct；甲醇开工率为 87.4%，环比+0.1pct，同比+11.9pct； 乙二醇开工率为 66.2%，环比+0.9%，同比+6.3pct。原油价格上涨化 ...