策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创证券人工智能研究中心】 公募增配光通信、半导体设备、封测，减配芯片设 计、游戏、广告——多行业联合人工智能 2 月报 策略月报 2026 年 02 月 04 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：耿琛 邮箱：gengchen@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517100004 证券分析师：岳阳 电话：021-20572543 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519070003 邮箱：yueyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521120002 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 证券分析师：张程航 2026-01-26 《【华创策略】再通胀主线：五朵金花——策略周 聚焦》 2026-01-25 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 证券分析师：范益民 电话：021-20572562 邮箱：fanyimin@ ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the semiconductor industry, specifically high bandwidth memory (HBM) and its critical role in artificial intelligence (AI) applications. [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - **NVIDIA's Demand for HBM4**: NVIDIA has requested Samsung Electronics to expedite the supply of the 6th generation HBM4, bypassing the final quality tests. This request indicates NVIDIA's urgency in securing HBM4 capacity amid fierce competition from AMD and Google. [1][3] - **Samsung and SK Hynix's Role**: Both Samsung and SK Hynix are currently conducting final quality tests for HBM4, with Samsung planning mass production in February. [2] - **Shift in Market Dynamics**: The semiconductor landscape has shifted, with Korean memory companies like Samsung and SK Hynix gaining unprecedented importance in the global AI and semiconductor supply chain. [4] - **Market Share Projections**: According to Counterpoint Research, SK Hynix and Samsung are expected to capture 54% and 28% of the global HBM4 market share, respectively, totaling over 80%. [4] - **Profitability Surge**: Morgan Stanley forecasts that Samsung and SK Hynix's operating profits will rise significantly, with estimates of 24.5 trillion KRW and 17.9 trillion KRW, respectively, compared to last year's profits of 4.36 trillion KRW and 4.72 trillion KRW, marking a growth of 4 to 5 times. [7] - **Increased Bargaining Power**: The shortage of general storage due to the focus on HBM production is enhancing the bargaining power of these companies. DRAM prices surged from $1.35 in January last year to $11.5 this January, a 750% increase. NAND flash prices also rose from $2.18 to $9.46. [5] - **Future of Storage Chips**: The transition to customized storage products is expected to increase the influence of domestic companies with superior design and production capabilities. [8] - **AI's Impact on Storage**: The demand for storage chips is projected to dominate the industry in the AI era, highlighting their critical role in supporting AI accelerators and data center expansions. [9] Additional Important Insights - **NVIDIA's Strategic Position**: NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang emphasized the need for substantial storage this year, indicating the company's reliance on memory suppliers to support its AI chip production. [5][6] - **Supply Chain Challenges**: The entire supply chain may face challenges due to the high demand for storage, which could impact production timelines and availability. [6]

Key Points Summary Industry Overview - The technology sector in the US stock market, particularly storage stocks, continues to lead gains with notable increases: SanDisk up 4.55%, Western Digital up 7.40%, and Teradata up 13.41%. However, Micron experienced a decline of 4.19%, and AMD's guidance fell short of expectations, leading to a significant drop in after-hours trading [1][1]. Smartphone Market Insights - According to a recent report by Counterpoint Research, the smartphone market is unlikely to recover before 2027, with normalization expected in the second half of 2027 or early 2028 [1][1]. AMD Developments - AMD reported that demand for server CPUs is "very strong," with AI business accelerating. The company anticipates a 60% annual growth in data center revenue over the next three to five years, projecting AI revenue to reach "hundreds of billions" by 2027 [1][1]. Lumentum Expansion - Lumentum is rapidly expanding in the Optical Communications Solutions (OCS) sector to meet significant customer demand, with backlog orders exceeding $400 million. Additionally, the company has secured several hundred million dollars in new orders in the Chip-on-Board (CPO) sector, with expected deliveries in the first half of 2027 [1][1]. Samsung Electronics Update - Samsung Electronics plans to initiate a "conversion investment" for advanced NAND flash in the second quarter of this year. The X2 production line in Xi'an, China, will be converted to produce 280-layer V9 NAND, aiming to increase monthly production capacity by 40,000 to 50,000 wafers. The P1 facility in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, is also preparing for capacity enhancements [2][2].

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 三星电子和SK海力士在今年上半年大幅提高NAND闪存的价格。这很可能将NAND闪存的利润率推 高至40-50%。业界预计，在2017年存储器超级周期近十年后，NAND产品将实现创纪录的盈利能 力。 据业内人士4日透露，三星电子和SK海力士今年上半年的NAND闪存利润率预计将接近40-50%。 截至去年第四季度，两家公司的NAND闪存利润率估计已升至20%左右。具体而言，SK海力士凭借 其更高比例的四层单元（QLC）闪存，实现了比三星电子更高的盈利能力。QLC是一种每个单元存储 4位数据的技术，是目前最小的存储单元。它便于实现高容量存储，并正被广泛应用于服务器固态硬 盘（SSD）中。 随着全球大型科技公司大力投资人工智能基础设施，服务器固态硬盘的需求正在迅速增长。特别是， 英伟达不仅积极订购QLC固态硬盘，还订购三层单元（TLC；每个单元存储3位数据）固态硬盘产 品。 三星电子和SK海力士计划在今年上半年大幅提高NAND闪存的价格，重点面向高附加值产品。市场 研究公司TrendForce预测，NAND闪存的平均售价（ASP）在去年第四季度将上涨33%至38%，而今 ...

// 热点头条 // 1. SpaceX：官网发布马斯克署名公告，宣布已收购xAI，合并后公司将整合人工智能、火箭、天基互联 网及移动设备直连通信。备忘录显示，新公司估值达1.25万亿美元（SpaceX估值1万亿美元+xAI估值 2500亿美元），交易为全股票形式，仍筹备2026年潜在IPO，但具体时间和估值尚不确定。 2. AMD：2025年四季度营收102.7亿美元，超预期的96.5亿美元；调整后每股收益1.53美元，高于预期 的1.32美元；运营利润28.5亿美元，利润率28%，预计2026年一季度营收95亿-101亿美元，调整后毛利 润率约55%。 3. 英伟达： 有报道称，OpenAI对英伟达最新的一些人工智能芯片并不满意，并且自去年以来一直在推 理芯片市场寻找替代方案。不过，报道出炉后不久，OpenAI CEO Altman隔空反驳，赞扬英伟达的AI芯 片。英伟达CEO黄仁勋对此表示，公司对OpenAI 的投资计划仍在 "按部就班推进"。 // 大中华地区公司要闻 // 1. 东鹏饮料：正式登陆香港联合交易所主板，证券简称为"东鹏饮料"，成为国内首家实现A+H双上市的 功能饮料企业，此次上市将助力 ...

Group 1 - The global AI industry has experienced explosive growth since 2026, leading to a surge in demand for high-performance chips, with South Korean giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix seeing their stock prices soar and their combined market value surpassing $1.11 trillion, exceeding that of Chinese tech giants Alibaba and Tencent [1] - Samsung Electronics' stock has risen by 34% this year, while SK Hynix has seen a higher increase of 37%, contributing to a significant rise in the South Korean stock market [1] - In contrast, Chinese tech leaders Alibaba and Tencent have seen much lower stock performance, with Alibaba's Hong Kong shares rising only about 10% and Tencent's stock remaining relatively flat [1] Group 2 - High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is a critical hardware component that addresses GPU performance bottlenecks, with South Korean companies holding a monopolistic advantage due to their long-term technological accumulation, deeply integrating into the global AI hardware ecosystem [2] - Unlike South Korean firms focusing on key components, Chinese tech giants Alibaba and Tencent are pursuing a full AI industry chain strategy, investing heavily in AI model development, cloud services, and computing chips [2] - Recently, both companies shifted their strategic focus from research and development to market expansion, launching significant cash incentive campaigns to capture user traffic and build AI application ecosystems [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the remarkable performance of the South Korean stock market, highlighting its significant gains and the factors driving this growth, including key industries and government reforms [5][38]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 2, the KOSPI index fell below 5000 points, with foreign investors selling 25.2 trillion KRW and institutions selling 22.1 trillion KRW, while retail investors bought over 50 trillion KRW, setting a historical record [5][6]. - The following day, the market rebounded, rising 6.84%, nearly recovering from the previous day's losses [7]. - Since April of the previous year, the KOSPI has increased by over 130%, surpassing 5300 points [9]. Group 2: Key Industries - The South Korean stock market is heavily weighted, with the top 20 stocks accounting for over 60% of the KOSPI, particularly in semiconductors, shipbuilding, and battery sectors, which contributed over 70% to the recent gains [17][18]. - The semiconductor sector saw a staggering 280% increase, driven by a supply-demand imbalance expected to peak in 2025, with a projected 78% year-on-year growth in semiconductor exports [19][23]. - The shipbuilding industry experienced a 190% increase, with global new ship orders expected to rise by 45% in 2025, with South Korean companies capturing 48% of these orders [29][30]. - The battery sector grew by 120%, focusing on high-end electric vehicles and energy storage, despite a decrease in market share [34][35]. Group 3: Government Reforms - The South Korean government implemented significant reforms in April 2025, including easing foreign investment restrictions and reducing transaction taxes, which led to a net foreign purchase of 38.6 trillion KRW in stocks from April to December 2025 [43][46]. - The National Pension Service (NPS) significantly increased its holdings in domestic stocks, reaching a market value of 247.4 trillion KRW by the end of 2025, focusing on key sectors [50]. - Reforms also included improving short-selling regulations, which increased market participation and led to a surge in retail investor activity, with retail trading accounting for 78% of total trading [60][61]. Group 4: Retail Investor Dynamics - The number of active retail investors surged from 72 million in April 2025 to 98 million by February 2026, indicating widespread participation in the stock market [67]. - Retail investors' total holdings increased from 380 trillion KRW to 920 trillion KRW, reflecting a 142% growth [71]. - Despite the overall market gains, the average profit for retail investors was only about 255,000 KRW, highlighting that many investors did not benefit proportionately from the market's rise [75][78].

Group 1 - The first "No. 1 Document" of the 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the integration of artificial intelligence with agriculture, expanding applications in drones, IoT, and robotics, while promoting rural e-commerce and enhancing infrastructure for cold storage and logistics [1] - WTI crude oil futures rose by 1.72% to $63.21 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 1.55% to $67.33 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions involving U.S. naval forces and Iranian drones [1] - U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow down 0.34%, Nasdaq down 1.43%, and S&P 500 down 0.83%, while precious metals saw significant gains, with COMEX gold futures up 6.83% to $4970.5 per ounce [1] Group 2 - LME metal futures saw widespread gains, with LME copper rising by $586 to $13,478 per ton, driven by China's potential reserve plans for copper concentrate and a U.S. mineral reserve initiative with initial funding of $12 billion [2] - The Paris prosecutor's office has launched a search at X's office in France, part of an ongoing investigation involving Elon Musk and former CEO Linda Yaccarino, with a hearing scheduled for April 20 [2] - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's combined market value reached $1.14 trillion, surpassing Alibaba and Tencent's combined value of $1.07 trillion, indicating a shift in AI investment towards infrastructure [4] Group 3 - In January 2026, A-share new accounts reached 4.9158 million, a 89% month-on-month increase and a 213% year-on-year increase from January 2025 [5] - The latest data shows that the net asset value of Guotou Ruijin silver futures increased by 3.3%, with the unit net value reported at 2.3238 yuan [5] - The commercial space launch company in Hainan announced plans for nearly 30 launch missions in 2026, focusing on new model launches and operational readiness [6] Group 4 - The China Engineering Machinery Industry Association reported a 39.1% year-on-year increase in domestic sales of truck cranes in December 2025, indicating a recovery in the construction machinery sector [7] - SpaceX confirmed a merger with xAI, integrating AI, rockets, and satellite internet, with an estimated post-merger valuation of $1.25 trillion [7] - The commercial real estate REITs pilot program has seen the first eight REITs submit applications to raise a total of 31.475 billion yuan, with expected distribution rates above 4.5% [9] Group 5 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need for strategic planning in emerging industries, including 6G, quantum technology, and hydrogen energy [10] - The sales of home appliances and digital products in January exceeded 15 million units, generating nearly 59 billion yuan in sales, driven by the old-for-new appliance replacement policy [11] - The smart retail market in China is projected to grow to approximately 64.5 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 22% [14]

【环球时报驻韩国特约记者 黎枳银 环球时报记者 肖震冬】韩国股市此前两日上演"过山车"式震荡，先 遭遇大幅下挫，一度触发"熔断"，后又强劲反弹，市场在恐慌性抛售与低价买盘快速回流之间反复拉 扯。多方分析称，在全球人工智能（AI）投资预期出现波动之际，这凸显以AI企业大规模支出为核心 的上涨结构在高估值环境下"走钢丝"的现实。 " 波动性主导首尔股市 " 彭博社报道称，2日韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）单日下跌5.3%，为去年4月以来最大跌幅，股指期货下 行一度触发程序化交易暂停。此前长期领涨市场的芯片权重股集体承压，三星电子与SK海力士当日盘 中跌幅均超过6%。韩元同步走弱，市场避险情绪瞬间升温，国内外资金在现货市场纷纷转为净卖出。 但仅仅一个交易日后，韩国股市便快速反弹。据韩国《韩民族日报》3日报道，KOSPI时隔一天重返 5000点，在前一交易日跌幅超过5%后，早盘上涨逾3%，盘中一度触发买入侧程序化交易限制。"KOSPI 经历过山车行情，波动性主导首尔股市"，《韩国先驱报》3日以此为题报道。对于反弹动因，韩国 Kiwoom证券分析师韩智英指出，在美国市场情绪暂时企稳的背景下，前一日暴跌所引发的低价买盘迅 ...

隔夜美国制造业数据托底风险偏好，全球股市多数上涨。 2月3日，美股指期货齐涨，欧股指集体高开，亚洲股市强劲反弹，MSCI亚太指数上涨2.2%，录得4月以来最大单日涨幅，此前黄金和白银收复部分 失地，科技股全线上涨，市场从前一交易日的剧烈波动中企稳。 据，美印双方达成贸易协议，美国对印度的"对等关税"将从25%降至18%。印度股市暴涨2.2%。韩国Kospi指数上涨6%，创下4月10日以来最大单日 涨幅。三星电子飙升10%，成为推动指数上涨的最大功臣，SK海力士涨幅超过9%。两家芯片巨头今年以来涨幅均超过35%，受益于市场对AI应用所 需内存芯片需求激增的认知不断增强。 现货黄金向上触及4930美元/盎司，日内涨6%，现货白银飙升11%，抹去了前两个交易日创纪录涨势突然逆转造成的部分损失。纳斯达克100指数期 货上涨0.5%，此前AI龙头企业Palantir Technologies发布了强于预期的销售前景。 以下是核心市场走势： 美印贸易协议引爆印度市场 据央视新闻，特朗普表示，双方达成了一项美印贸易协议，美国对印度的"对等关税"将从25%降至18%。印度也将相应地降低对美国的关税和非关税 壁垒，直至降至零。 ...