截至2026年2月3日，汇添富中证细分有色金属产业主题ETF发起式联接C(019165)自成立以来，最高单 月回报为20.81%，最长连涨月数为6个月，最长连涨涨幅63.79%，涨跌月数比为16/10，上涨月份平均收 益率为8.91%，年盈利百分比为100.00%，月盈利概率64.65%，历史持有2年盈利概率为100.00%。 截至2026年2月4日 15:00，中证细分有色金属产业主题指数(000811)上涨0.27%，成分股金钼股份 (601958)上涨4.28%，兴业银锡(000426)上涨3.79%，华友钴业(603799)上涨2.83%，神火股份(000933)上 涨2.81%，白银有色(601212)上涨2.62%。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 截至2026年2月4日 15:00，有色ETF汇添富上涨0.57%，截至2026年2月3日，近1年以来累计上涨 118.67%。 截至2026年2月3日，有色ETF汇添富的场外联接产品汇添富中证细分有色金属产业主题ETF发起式联接 C(019165)单位净值为2.31元，当日上涨2.72%，近一月累计上涨14.90%。 2月4日，国际金价 ...

华源证券近日发布有色金属大宗金属周报：锂电需求"淡季不淡"，碳酸锂供需反转，锂价进入上行周 期。本周碳酸锂价格上涨12.86%至15.8万元/吨，锂辉石精矿上涨5.32%至1980美元/吨。本周碳酸锂期货 主力合约2605上涨1.94%至14.62万元/吨。周五碳酸锂期货跌停，或主要系广期所加大监管力度，投机 资金获利了结所致。 钴：钴原料偏紧格局仍未改变，钴价有望延续上行。本周MB钴上涨0.59%至25.68美元/磅，国内电钴价 格下跌1.31%为45.2万元/吨。刚果（金）自10月16日起解除钴出口禁令，改为实施钴出口配额制。供给 端，刚果（金）决定将允许2025年第四季度的钴出口配额延续至2026年3月底，考虑到运输周期，预计 国内原料或将在今年3月后才能陆续到港，钴原料结构性偏紧逻辑不变，钴价有望延续上涨。建议关 注：华友钴业、洛阳钼业、腾远钴业、力勤资源、寒锐钴业。 以下为研究报告摘要： 风险提示：下游复产不及预期风险；国内房地产需求不振风险；新能源汽车增速不及预期风险。（华源 证券 田源,张明磊,田庆争,陈婉妤,陈轩） 投资要点： 铜：库存累积叠加关税预期推迟，铜价短期或迎来高位震荡。本周伦铜/沪 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Shenhuo Co., Ltd. reported a total of 68,300 shareholders as of the end of January 2026 [2]

华鑫证券近日发布有色金属行业周报：价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4981.85美元/盎司，环比1月23 日+35.60美元/盎司，涨幅为0.72%。周内伦敦白银价格为103.19美元/盎司，环比1月23日+4.19美元/盎 司，涨幅为4.23%。本周LME铜收盘价13440美元/吨，环比1月23日+460美元/吨，涨幅为+3.54%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 贵金属：短期贵金属巨震，但是年内仍将降息支撑贵金属价格 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4981.85美元/盎司，环比1月23日+35.60美元/盎司，涨幅为0.72%。周内 伦敦白银价格为103.19美元/盎司，环比1月23日+4.19美元/盎司，涨幅为4.23%。 数据方面，美国11月耐用品订单环比初值5.3%，前值-2.1%，预期3.8%。美国美联储FOMC利率决策(下 限)3.5%，前值3.5%，预期3.5%。美国美联储FOMC利率决策(上限)3.75%，前值3.75%，预期3.75%。美 国1月24日当周首次申请失业救济人数20.9万人，前值20万人，预期20.5万人。美国12月PPI同比3%，前 值3%，预期2.8%。 本周美联储议息会议维 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [11]. Core Insights - The domestic copper inventory is beginning to decrease, which may lead to stronger prices [6]. - The gold market is expected to stabilize and rise further due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The aluminum supply remains rigid, supporting the investment outlook for the aluminum sector [11]. - Tin prices are expected to be supported by tight supply conditions [11]. - Antimony prices are rebounding after a six-month decline, indicating potential investment opportunities [11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) has shown significant performance with a 1-month increase of 22.6%, a 3-month increase of 35.7%, and a 12-month increase of 128.5% [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices reached $4981.85 per ounce, with a week-on-week increase of $35.60, or 0.72%. Silver prices were $103.19 per ounce, up $4.19, or 4.23% [4]. Copper and Aluminum - Copper prices closed at $13,440 per ton on the LME, up $460 per ton, or 3.54%. SHFE copper closed at ¥103,170 per ton, up ¥2,120, or 2.10% [6]. - Domestic aluminum prices were ¥24,640 per ton, with a week-on-week increase of ¥510 [7]. Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin prices were ¥423,630 per ton, down ¥110, or 0.03%. The supply and demand for tin are weak, leading to a price fluctuation around high levels [9]. - Antimony prices remain supported due to tight supply conditions, with current prices at ¥160,000 per ton [10]. Recommended Stocks - For the gold sector, recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold International. In the copper sector, recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Western Mining. For aluminum, recommended stocks are Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [11]. Core Insights - The domestic copper inventory is beginning to decrease, which may lead to stronger prices [6]. - The gold market is expected to stabilize and rise further due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The aluminum supply remains rigid, supporting the investment outlook for the aluminum sector [11]. - Tin prices are expected to be supported by tight supply conditions [11]. - Antimony prices are rebounding after a six-month decline, indicating a positive outlook for the antimony sector [11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) has shown significant performance with a 1-month increase of 22.6%, a 3-month increase of 35.7%, and a 12-month increase of 128.5% [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices reached $4981.85 per ounce, with a week-on-week increase of $35.60, or 0.72%. Silver prices were $103.19 per ounce, up $4.19, or 4.23% [4]. Copper and Aluminum - Copper prices closed at $13,440 per ton on the LME, up $460 per ton, or 3.54%. SHFE copper closed at ¥103,170 per ton, up ¥2,120, or 2.10% [6]. - Domestic aluminum prices were ¥24,640 per ton, with a week-on-week increase of ¥510 [7]. Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin prices were ¥423,630 per ton, down ¥110, or 0.03%. The supply and demand for tin are weak, leading to a price fluctuation around high levels [9]. - Antimony prices remain supported due to tight supply conditions, with current prices at ¥160,000 per ton [10]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in various sectors, including Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others across gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing strength in precious metals and anticipates potential profit increases in minor metals [1]. - It emphasizes the financial attributes of copper and the impact of supply constraints on various metals, including aluminum and tungsten [4][5]. - The report notes the continued demand for gold driven by central bank purchases and the selling of U.S. government bonds by European institutions [4]. Summary by Sections Copper Sector - The report indicates a focus on the financial attributes of copper, with LME copper prices at $12,921 per ton and SHFE copper at ¥101,340 per ton, showing a week-on-week change of -0.6% and +0.6% respectively [4]. - It mentions a tightening supply of copper concentrate, with processing fees declining, which may accelerate the clearing of smelting profits [4]. Aluminum Sector - LME aluminum prices reached $3,175 per ton, while SHFE aluminum was at ¥24,290 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of +0.9% and +1.5% respectively [4]. - The report notes a high operating rate of 98.3% for electrolytic aluminum and a slight increase in the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises [4]. Precious Metals - SHFE gold prices were reported at ¥1,115.6 per gram and COMEX gold at $4,983.1 per ounce, with week-on-week increases of +8.1% and +8.3% respectively [4]. - The report highlights that the SPDR Gold ETF's net holdings increased to 1,086.5 tons, indicating stable demand from overseas investors [4]. Minor Metals - Tungsten prices rose to ¥535,000 per ton, with a week-on-week increase of +5.5% [4]. - The report also notes a tightening supply in the rare earth sector, with prices for praseodymium and dysprosium oxides showing slight declines [4]. Steel Sector - SHFE rebar and hot-rolled coil prices were reported at ¥3,142 and ¥3,305 per ton, with slight week-on-week decreases [5]. - The report mentions a significant explosion at a steel plant, which may lead to stricter safety regulations and supply constraints in the steel industry [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with rich copper resources, such as Zijin Mining and China Molybdenum, as well as those in the aluminum sector like China Aluminum and Nanshan Aluminum [8]. - It also recommends monitoring tungsten and rare earth companies, as well as steel firms with strong product structures [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward trend with significant fluctuations, driven by macro - factors and capital resonance. The alumina futures had a wide - range volatile trend affected by the chemical sector and supply - side production cuts. The cast aluminum alloy futures moved in tandem with Shanghai aluminum [6][9][12]. - In 2025, the alumina supply was loose, and it is expected to remain so in 2026. The electrolytic aluminum supply - demand situation worsened in 2025 but is expected to shift from oversupply to undersupply in 2026. The recycled aluminum alloy maintained a balanced pattern in 2025 and is expected to continue a tight - balance situation in 2026 [95][96]. - In February 2026, the aluminum price is expected to decline first and then rise, with the Shanghai aluminum price mainly ranging from 22,000 to 25,000. Alumina will continue to bottom - out, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies, with the price mainly ranging from 2,200 to 2,900. The cast aluminum alloy price will be mainly in the range of 21,000 - 24,000 [100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Aluminum**: Since January, the Shanghai aluminum futures oscillated upward, with several sharp increases followed by consolidation, and a significant decline on the last trading day of the month affected by the precious metals market. Macro - factors and capital resonance were the main driving forces [6]. - **Alumina**: Since January, the alumina futures first rose, then fell, and then rebounded, showing a wide - range volatile trend, influenced by the active chemical sector and minor supply - side production cuts [9]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Since its listing in June, the cast aluminum alloy futures showed an oscillating upward trend, generally in sync with the Shanghai aluminum futures [12]. 3.2 Upstream of the Industrial Chain - **Bauxite**: In 2025, China's bauxite imports increased by 17.1% year - on - year, with imports from Guinea up 38%. The domestic bauxite production decreased by 7.86% year - on - year. The external dependence on bauxite is expected to exceed 75% in 2026 [17]. - **Alumina**: In 2025, China's alumina exports increased by 42.7% year - on - year, and imports in November increased by 134.11% year - on - year. The production increased, and with new capacity coming online, it is expected to grow by about 5% in 2026. As of January 16, 2026, the total alumina inventory increased by 36.5% compared with the same period in 2025 [21][23][27]. 3.3 Middle - stream of the Industrial Chain - **Primary Aluminum Import**: In November 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports decreased by 40.8% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. From 2024 to now, imports have increased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the future [32]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is stable with a slight increase. The in - production capacity has been increasing since 2024. In 2025, it maintained a high - level operation. In 2026, 1.78 million tons of capacity is planned to be cut, and 2.414 million tons of new capacity is to be released [36]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In December 2025, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3% year - on - year, and the annual production increased by 2.4% year - on - year. In December, the downstream开工率 decreased, and the aluminum - water ratio dropped [39]. - **Aluminum Plant Profits**: Since 2025, aluminum plant profits have increased significantly. As of January 19, 2026, the immediate profit of self - power - supplied aluminum plants and grid - powered aluminum plants has exceeded the 2023 - 2024 level [43]. - **Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory**: The annual inventory level has been decreasing in recent years. In 2026, it is expected to have two periods of inventory accumulation during the off - season, with the annual high point after the Spring Festival [46]. 3.4 Downstream of the Industrial Chain - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: Since 2023, the aluminum processing industry has had a low operating rate. Currently, it is in the off - season, and the operating rate of each segment has decreased month - on - month [52]. - **Aluminum Alloy Import and Export**: In November 2025, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased by 28.2% year - on - year and 4.1% month - on - month, while the export increased by 51.6% year - on - year and decreased by 1.1% month - on - month [55]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Production**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy has been increasing year by year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production increased by 23.55% year - on - year [59]. - **Aluminum Alloy Product Inventory**: Since 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory has been accumulating, especially during the off - season, and it is expected to continue rising in the short term [62]. - **Aluminum Product Export**: In 2025, the cumulative export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. Due to trade barriers, it is expected to continue to decline in 2026 [66]. 3.5 Terminal of the Industrial Chain - **Real Estate Industry**: In 2025, the real estate market was in a deep adjustment period, with investment, new construction, and sales all declining. It is expected to take time to recover [72][75]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly. However, the growth rate is expected to slow down to 15 - 20% in 2026 [78]. - **Three Major Home Appliances**: In 2025, the production of three major home appliances showed a slow - down in growth. It is expected to maintain positive growth in 2026 with policy support [82]. - **Power Grid Investment**: In 2025, the power grid investment increased by 5.93% year - on - year. In 2026, the UHV construction is expected to continue to develop rapidly [85]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: In 2025, the photovoltaic industry had a high - speed development, but there was over - capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and the global new photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 665GW [89]. - **Recycled Aluminum Import**: In 2025, the import of scrap aluminum increased significantly. It is expected that the tight supply of scrap aluminum will continue [92].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.02 鹰派扰动，价格巨震 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 刘小华(分析师) | 021-38038434 | liuxiaohua@gtht.com | S0880523120003 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | | 梁琳(分析师) | 021-23185845 | lianglin@gtht.com | S0880525070014 | | 李阳(分析师) | 021-23185618 | liyang7@gtht.com | S088052504 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to rebound, with a focus on the cyclical elasticity of both thermal coal and coking coal prices, which are currently at historical lows, providing room for recovery [5][15] - The report emphasizes that the price of thermal coal is influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand due to seasonal factors, while coking coal prices are more market-driven [4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at around 750 RMB per ton for 2025 [4][15] - Coking coal prices are determined by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. Key stocks to consider include: - Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal - Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 - Diversification and growth logic: 神火股份, 电投能源, 新集能源, 广汇能源 [5][16] Key Market Indicators - The coal index increased by 3.68%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.6 percentage points [10][25] - As of January 30, the price of Qin港 Q5500 thermal coal was 692 RMB per ton, reflecting a slight increase of 7 RMB from the previous period [21] - The report notes a significant drop in coal inventory at ports, indicating tightening supply conditions [21][23]