Core Viewpoint - The price of DRAM is experiencing significant increases due to heightened demand from AI applications, leading to supply shortages in consumer products like PCs [2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - The bulk trading price of DRAM products for November-December 2025 has risen by 40% compared to September, and over three times compared to December 2024 [2][6]. - DDR4 8GB is priced around $6.36, and 4GB is priced at approximately $4.84, both reflecting a 40% increase from September [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major companies are prioritizing supply for AI applications, resulting in insufficient availability for consumer products [2][5]. - In October 2025, a rare situation occurred where bulk trading prices could not be established due to supply shortages [4]. Group 3: Market Impact - The rise in DRAM prices is forcing some end products to increase their prices, with companies like Mouse Computer and HP indicating potential price hikes due to DRAM costs [8]. - IDC predicts that in a pessimistic scenario, PC shipments in 2026 could decrease by 8.9% compared to the previous year [8].

全球三大存储芯片制造商正采取罕见措施遏制客户囤货行为。面对持续的供应紧张局面，三星电子、 SK海力士和美光已开始加强对客户订单的审查，要求披露最终用户和订单量信息，以确保需求真实性 并防止过度囤积进一步扰乱市场。 据日经亚洲周五报道，三家公司已收紧订单要求，对客户采购行为实施更严格的监控。这一举措凸显出 当前存储芯片市场供需失衡的严峻程度。 供应紧张的连锁反应正在消费电子领域显现。入门级和中端产品——包括电视、机顶盒、家用路由器、 平板电脑、智能手机和个人电脑——预计将受到最严重冲击。汽车行业也面临显著压力，其更长的认证 周期使问题更加复杂。 存储芯片制造商近期披露的数据进一步印证了供应紧张态势。据韩国亚洲经济报道，SK海力士表示其 DRAM库存在去年第四季度同比大幅下降，预计今年下半年将进一步收缩，表明客户供应状况可能在 一段时间内保持紧张。在NAND闪存方面，SK海力士指出以固态硬盘为主的库存自去年下半年以来持 续下降，目前已降至与DRAM相当的水平。 据韩国经济报道，三星的DRAM库存已降至约六周供应量，仅为正常10-12周水平的一半左右。作为三 大存储芯片制造商中产能最大的企业，三星有望在这个供应商主 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic AI companies are expected to see significant performance growth, driven by the AI wave, with the integrated circuit ETF (159546) rising over 0.7% on January 30 [1]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - By 2026, global AI server shipments are projected to increase by over 28% year-on-year, which will drive price increases for related chips such as storage and CPUs [1]. - The storage industry is experiencing a steady upward cycle, with an optimized supply-demand structure leading to simultaneous price and volume increases for products [1]. - Samsung Electronics plans to raise the supply price of NAND flash memory by over 100% in Q1 2026, significantly exceeding market expectations, highlighting the severe supply-demand imbalance in the semiconductor market [1]. Group 2: Company Strategies and Market Dynamics - Intel and AMD are considering increasing the average price of server CPUs by 10-15% in Q1 2026 [1]. - The current demand in the electronics industry is recovering, with effective supply clearance and rising prices for storage chips, indicating an unexpected acceleration in domestic production efforts [1]. - The integrated circuit ETF (159546) tracks the integrated circuit index (932087), which covers listed companies in semiconductor design, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and related materials and equipment, reflecting the overall performance and development trends of the integrated circuit industry [1].

存储行业超级周期之下，韩国两大存储巨头双双交出了堪称炸裂的"史上最强"业绩。 1月29日，全球最大的存储芯片制造商三星电子交出了一份创纪录的成绩单——公司2025年四季度销售 额达93.8万亿韩元，创单季历史新高，环比增长9%，同比增长24%；营业利润20.1万亿韩元，较上年同 期的6.5万亿韩元暴增209.2%，同样刷新历史纪录；净利润为19.6万亿韩元，同比暴涨151.3%。 就在三星电子公布最新财报前一日，其老对手SK海力士已率先公布业绩。2025年第四季度，SK海力士 营收同比增长66%至32.83万亿韩元；营业利润同比增长137%至19.17万亿韩元；净利润为15.24万亿韩 元，同比增长90%。2025年全年，其营收达97.15万亿韩元，营业利润达47.21万亿韩元，净利润达42.95 万亿韩元，三项指标远超2024年创下的历史最高记录。 值得一提的是，单看年度营业利润，SK海力士首次实现对三星电子的反超，登顶全球存储芯片行业 的"盈利新王"。 AI引爆存储业绩 SK海力士与三星电子前后脚交出另市场侧目的成绩单，主要得益于AI热潮所推动的存储芯片"超级周 期"。自从2025上半年，全球存储芯片价格 ...

Jan. 30, 2026 Tr e n dFo r c e 集 邦 咨 询 供 应 链 调 查 结 果 显 示 ， Me t a 初 期 对 AR 眼 镜 市 场 需 求 采 取 相 对 保 守 的 态 度，除了考量过往VR装置销售的表现，也因关键光学零部件的供应仍受限。以Lumu s阵列光波 导为例，由于制程相对复杂与精密，Me t a最初的订单仅约8万台，属于测试市场水温的规模； 产 品 上 市 半 年 内 ， 拉 货 节 奏 迅 速 调 整 ， 近 期 已 扩 大 至 1 5 万 台 ， 增 幅 高 达 8 7 . 5% 。 其 余 如 Omn iVisi o n 的 Li q u i d Cr y st a l o n Sili c o n (LCoS) 、 Go e r o p ti c s 光 引 擎 组 装 ， 以 及 SCHOTT 的 光波导关键光学零部件订单，也呈阶梯式成长。 为应对逐步升温的拉货力道，上游显示与组装相关的代工体系正同步优化产线并提升良率，以 协助Me t a达成未来两年内累积5 0万台出货量的阶段性目标。 产业洞察 Tr e n dFo r c e集邦咨询表示，此一情况反 ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the STAR Market semiconductor index rising by 0.50% as of January 30, 2026, and several component stocks showing significant gains, such as Shijia Optoelectronics up 7.31% and Chipone Technology up 5.38% [1] - Alibaba has clarified its "Cloud + AI + Chip" strategy, with its PPU from Tmall Genie achieving cumulative shipments of several hundred thousand units, positioning it among the leading domestic GPU manufacturers [1] - As of January 29, 2026, nearly 250 STAR Market companies have disclosed their 2025 performance expectations, with about 50% (125 companies) projected to be profitable, and 67 companies expected to show positive year-on-year growth in net profit [1] Group 2 - Donghai Securities forecasts a global server shipment growth rate of 12.8% in 2026, with AI server shipments expected to increase by over 28%, driving up prices for related chips such as storage and CPUs [2] - Samsung Electronics plans to raise NAND flash supply prices by over 100% in Q1 2026, while Intel and AMD are considering a 10-15% increase in average server CPU prices for the same period [2] - The current demand in the electronics industry is recovering, with effective supply clearance leading to rising prices for storage chips, suggesting structural opportunities in AI computing power, AIOT, semiconductor equipment, and key components [2] Group 3 - The STAR Market Chip ETF (588200) tracks the STAR Market semiconductor index, serving as a convenient tool for investing in the semiconductor sector [3] - Investors without stock accounts can access investment opportunities in domestic chips through the STAR Market Chip ETF linked fund (017470) [4]

苹果公司在假日季度的营收大幅超出华尔街预期，主要受新款iPhone 17的强劲需求、服务业务增长以 及中国市场回暖推动。 苹果在1月29日发布的声明中表示，截至12月27日的季度，公司营收增长16%至1438亿美元，再创新 高。彭博汇编的数据显示，分析师此前平均预期为1384亿美元。苹果自身的预期为增长10%至12%。 苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克在声明中表示："空前的需求推动iPhone创下史上最佳季度表现，所有地区市 场都创下历史新高。" 在中国，苹果报告营收255亿美元，同比大增38%，远超华尔街平均预期的218亿美元，也远远超过了整 体销售额的增速。 苹果公司假日季在中国市场强劲反弹，得益于新机型iPhone 17的畅销。这是该公司自2021年底以来首 次在该地区实现了250亿美元级的季度销售额。 这些数字呈现出苹果公司的意外复苏景象。此前，该公司一直难以重振中国业务这个旧日的强劲引擎。 苹果当季实现了大中华区史上第二高营收，接近四年前创下的假日季纪录258亿美元。 首席执行官蒂姆·库克将这一表现归功于智能手机升级换代用户激增。他还表示，从其他平台转到苹果 手机的用户数量也实现了两位数百分比的增长。这使得 ...

环球市场动态 无 需 过 度 担 忧 内 地 结 汇 对 流 动 性 的 消 耗 股 票 A 股周三走势分化，白酒股午后集 体涨停；港股恒指升上 28,000 点后 回落，地产股大涨；欧洲股市涨跌 不一，SAP 财报不及预期引发科技 股大幅回落；美股受微软 (MSFT US) 财报拖累纳指一度跌超 2%， 科技股仍表现疲软。 外 汇 / 商 品 OPEC+料继续暂停增产，加上伊朗 局势持续紧张，推动周四国际油价 大涨超 3%；获利回吐推动黄金和 白银现中一度重挫，收盘回升；伦 敦期铜飙升；周四美元指数跟随美 债收益率走低，挪威克朗领涨 G-10 货币。 固 定 收 益 周四美国国债小幅上涨，主要因美 股下挫引发去杠杆情绪，避险资金 明显涌入美债。特朗普称将于今晚 宣布美联储人选。紫金矿业发行可 换股债券。新世界发展据悉和黑石 集团进行深入谈判。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2026 年 1 月 30 日 ▪ 近期内地外汇结汇规模较大，部分投资者担忧集中结汇会消耗流动性。我们认为，外汇存款结汇增加的确会消 耗银行的超储，产生消耗 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Elon Musk indicated during Tesla's Q4 2025 earnings call that chip production capacity is likely to become a bottleneck for Tesla's mid-term growth over the next 3 to 4 years, as external supply from companies like TSMC, Samsung, and Micron is insufficient to meet demand [1] - Tesla is considering the construction of its own TerraFab super-sized wafer factory to integrate various semiconductor manufacturing processes, which would help the company mitigate external risks [1] Group 2 - Musk mentioned that AI4 (HW 4.0) has been utilized in Tesla's data centers for AI training workloads, and the gap between AI5 and AI6 chip generations will be less than one year [3]

Macro Commentary - Chinese policymakers are signaling a strategic shift to prioritize domestic demand as the primary economic task by 2026, addressing issues like overcapacity, deflationary pressures, and weak confidence [2] - Demand-side policies will focus on stabilizing the real estate market and boosting consumption through measures such as lowering mortgage rates and purchasing unsold properties [2] - Supply-side policies will aim at structural adjustments, enhancing industry concentration by curbing capacity expansion and encouraging mergers and acquisitions [6] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,968, up 0.51% for the day and 9.12% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.00% [3] - The Chinese stock market saw gains, particularly in real estate, consumer staples, and financial sectors, with net inflows of 4.374 billion HKD from southbound funds [5] - The U.S. stock market experienced a pullback, with technology, consumer discretionary, and materials sectors leading the decline, while communication services, real estate, and energy sectors gained [5] Company Insights - Meta (META US) reported a 24% year-on-year revenue increase to 59.9 billion USD for Q4 2025, driven by AI-enhanced advertising growth, and provided a revenue guidance of 53.5-56.5 billion USD for Q1 2026 [6] - Microsoft (MSFT US) achieved 16.7% revenue growth to 81.3 billion USD in Q2 FY26, with strong performance in productivity and business processes, and provided a target price of 614.6 USD [6] - ServiceNow (NOW US) reported a 21% revenue increase to 3.57 billion USD for Q4 2025, with a positive outlook for FY26 driven by AI efficiencies, maintaining a target price of 215.0 USD [7][8] - Sunny Optical Technology (2382 HK) expects a 70-75% increase in net profit for 2025, driven by high-end camera upgrades and growth in automotive and smart glasses segments, with a target price of 91.38 HKD [8]