环球市场动态 无 需 过 度 担 忧 内 地 结 汇 对 流 动 性 的 消 耗 股 票 A 股周三走势分化，白酒股午后集 体涨停；港股恒指升上 28,000 点后 回落，地产股大涨；欧洲股市涨跌 不一，SAP 财报不及预期引发科技 股大幅回落；美股受微软 (MSFT US) 财报拖累纳指一度跌超 2%， 科技股仍表现疲软。 外 汇 / 商 品 OPEC+料继续暂停增产，加上伊朗 局势持续紧张，推动周四国际油价 大涨超 3%；获利回吐推动黄金和 白银现中一度重挫，收盘回升；伦 敦期铜飙升；周四美元指数跟随美 债收益率走低，挪威克朗领涨 G-10 货币。 固 定 收 益 周四美国国债小幅上涨，主要因美 股下挫引发去杠杆情绪，避险资金 明显涌入美债。特朗普称将于今晚 宣布美联储人选。紫金矿业发行可 换股债券。新世界发展据悉和黑石 集团进行深入谈判。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2026 年 1 月 30 日 ▪ 近期内地外汇结汇规模较大，部分投资者担忧集中结汇会消耗流动性。我们认为，外汇存款结汇增加的确会消 耗银行的超储，产生消耗 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Elon Musk indicated during Tesla's Q4 2025 earnings call that chip production capacity is likely to become a bottleneck for Tesla's mid-term growth over the next 3 to 4 years, as external supply from companies like TSMC, Samsung, and Micron is insufficient to meet demand [1] - Tesla is considering the construction of its own TerraFab super-sized wafer factory to integrate various semiconductor manufacturing processes, which would help the company mitigate external risks [1] Group 2 - Musk mentioned that AI4 (HW 4.0) has been utilized in Tesla's data centers for AI training workloads, and the gap between AI5 and AI6 chip generations will be less than one year [3]

Macro Commentary - Chinese policymakers are signaling a strategic shift to prioritize domestic demand as the primary economic task by 2026, addressing issues like overcapacity, deflationary pressures, and weak confidence [2] - Demand-side policies will focus on stabilizing the real estate market and boosting consumption through measures such as lowering mortgage rates and purchasing unsold properties [2] - Supply-side policies will aim at structural adjustments, enhancing industry concentration by curbing capacity expansion and encouraging mergers and acquisitions [6] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,968, up 0.51% for the day and 9.12% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.00% [3] - The Chinese stock market saw gains, particularly in real estate, consumer staples, and financial sectors, with net inflows of 4.374 billion HKD from southbound funds [5] - The U.S. stock market experienced a pullback, with technology, consumer discretionary, and materials sectors leading the decline, while communication services, real estate, and energy sectors gained [5] Company Insights - Meta (META US) reported a 24% year-on-year revenue increase to 59.9 billion USD for Q4 2025, driven by AI-enhanced advertising growth, and provided a revenue guidance of 53.5-56.5 billion USD for Q1 2026 [6] - Microsoft (MSFT US) achieved 16.7% revenue growth to 81.3 billion USD in Q2 FY26, with strong performance in productivity and business processes, and provided a target price of 614.6 USD [6] - ServiceNow (NOW US) reported a 21% revenue increase to 3.57 billion USD for Q4 2025, with a positive outlook for FY26 driven by AI efficiencies, maintaining a target price of 215.0 USD [7][8] - Sunny Optical Technology (2382 HK) expects a 70-75% increase in net profit for 2025, driven by high-end camera upgrades and growth in automotive and smart glasses segments, with a target price of 91.38 HKD [8]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang refuted claims that the U.S. plans to transfer 40% of Taiwan's semiconductor capacity to the U.S., asserting that the construction of global fabs represents new capacity rather than a transfer of existing capacity [2] Group 1: Semiconductor Capacity and Production - Huang emphasized that TSMC must expand globally to meet the surge in AI-driven chip demand while maintaining Taiwan's core market status [2] - He explained that current wafer demand exceeds Taiwan's physical grid capacity, making overseas production a necessity rather than a political strategy [2] - Despite TSMC's plans to build and expand fabs in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, the majority of production will remain in Taiwan due to its unmatched manufacturing ecosystem [2] Group 2: Importance of Memory and Chip Supply - For Nvidia, substantial capacity in both Taiwan and the U.S. is crucial, with sufficient memory (HBM, DDR5, GDDR7, LPDDR5X, NAND flash) being as important as logic chip capacity [3] - Huang stated that the company is closely collaborating with major HBM suppliers—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—to ensure chip supply for the next-generation AI accelerator, Rubin [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Considerations - Huang discussed the need for legislators to balance three conflicting goals: national security, technological leadership, and economic competitiveness [3] - He refuted comments from Anthropic's CEO regarding the export of advanced AI processors to China, clarifying that the U.S. government has determined that selling Nvidia's H200 processors to Chinese entities does not compromise national security [3] - Huang noted that the approval for these processors to enter the Chinese market now depends on the Chinese government, as Nvidia awaits regulatory approval [3] Group 4: Engagements in Taiwan - During his visit to Taiwan, Huang plans to attend internal Nvidia meetings and Lunar New Year events, as well as meet with TSMC founder Morris Chang and Chairman Mark Liu [3]

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 全球两大内存芯片制造商表示，由于人工智能蓬勃发展带来的产品需求快速增长，他们无法满足这一 需求，因此该行业的供应短缺状况将持续到 2027 年。 周四，韩国三星电子和SK海力士两家公司公布了创纪录的第四季度收益后，对存储器市场前景给出 了类似的展望。 三星电子存储器业务负责人金在俊周四的财报电话会议上表示："由于行业内洁净室空间有限，预计 2026年和2027年的供应扩张将受到限制，但由于与人工智能相关的强劲需求，预计供应短缺将持续 存在。" Kim表示，公司计划利用此前通过积极投资提前获得的洁净室和制造空间来扩大供应，这将使公司能 够在短期内扩大供应。 先进的内存，特别是高带宽内存，是人工智能应用的关键组件，被广泛用于提高英伟达等人工智能芯 片的运行效率。 供应短缺推高了内存芯片价格，为这两家韩国公司带来了创纪录的利润，但也给他们的客户带来了麻 烦。 三星的金表示，为了降低市场波动风险，公司被迫有选择地回应客户的供货合同请求。 他表示，三星优先向服务器客户供应DRAM芯片，PC和移动客户则排在后面。 分析人士表示，这种趋势将创造一种新的商业环境，财力雄厚的公司 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/1/30 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.32%报 5410.80 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.98%报 115.78 美元/盎司。美联储政策分歧、美国政府停摆 风险及伊朗军事演习加剧市场避险情绪，叠加特朗普降息呼吁与新任主席宽 ...

Group 1 - New stock listings include Meidel (920119.BJ) and new stock subscriptions for Linping Development (603284.SH) and Dianke Lantian (688818.SH) [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will list soybean meal and corn options on January 30 [2] - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, aiming to optimize and expand service supply [8][20][21] Group 2 - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand is expected to reach 5002 tons in 2025, marking a historical high [22] - The price of gold jewelry in China has surged, with some brands quoting over 1700 yuan per gram, reflecting a significant increase [15] - The commercial aerospace sector in China is set to implement the "155" strategy, focusing on developing advanced technology and services [16][17] Group 3 - Apple Inc. reported a 16% year-on-year revenue growth to $143.76 billion for Q1 2026, exceeding market expectations [28] - SanDisk's Q2 revenue surpassed expectations at $3.03 billion, leading to a stock increase of over 15% [30] - Gree's net profit is expected to increase by 104.74% to 131.45% in 2025, driven by growth in the industrial robotics sector [36] Group 4 - Shenghe Resources anticipates a net profit increase of 281.28% to 339.20% in 2025, attributed to rising rare earth prices [37] - Jiangfeng Electronics plans to acquire control of Kaide Quartz, enhancing its strategic positioning [48] - Sichuan Gold expects a net profit increase of 69.23% to 93.40% in 2025, driven by increased sales of gold concentrate [51]

Core Viewpoint - Apple reported record quarterly revenue but issued a warning about rising component costs impacting profit margins [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, Apple expects revenue growth of 13% to 16% year-over-year, exceeding Wall Street's previous forecast of 10% [1] - In the first fiscal quarter, Apple's gross margin reached 48.2%, surpassing both the company's guidance and analysts' expectations of 47.45% [1] - Apple's quarterly sales surged 16% to $143.8 billion, exceeding analysts' average forecast of $138.4 billion and the company's own growth target of 10% to 12% [2] Group 2: Market Challenges - Rising prices of storage chips are expected to exert pressure on hardware gross margins in the coming quarters, making the growth of high-margin service business increasingly critical [2] - Apple faces supply chain issues with the 3nm processors for iPhones and the third-generation AirPods Pro, which are independent of each other [1] - The company experienced a $1.4 billion negative impact on performance due to tariff issues during the holiday season [3] Group 3: Competitive Position - Apple has regained its position as the world's largest smartphone seller, surpassing Samsung Electronics [3] - Concerns remain about maintaining this market dominance, particularly regarding pricing strategies and the development of next-generation devices, including wearables and the anticipated foldable iPhone [3]

智通财经APP获悉，尽管苹果(AAPL.US)公布最新季度营收创下历史新高，且对当前季度业绩展望超出 市场预期，但公司同时发出预警，称零部件成本上涨正对利润率形成挤压风险。 在周四召开的分析师电话会议上，苹果表示，截至3月的2026财年第二季度营收预计同比增长13%至 16%，这一增幅超过华尔街此前10%的预测值，彰显出在第一财季依托iPhone实现营收暴涨后，苹果仍 能保持增长势头。 不过，存储芯片价格持续上涨的阴影为这份亮眼业绩蒙上一层阴霾。苹果首席执行官库克称，上一季度 存储芯片成本的影响微乎其微，但当前季度其对毛利率的拖累效应将进一步显现。数据显示，苹果第一 财季毛利率达48.2%，不仅高于公司自身此前给出的指引，也超过分析师预期的47.45%。 这些担忧给苹果股价带来压力。业绩公布后，苹果股价在盘后交易中波动，该股一度上涨近3.5%，但 截至发稿，涨幅已不足1%。今年以来，苹果股价已累计下跌5%，而同期标普500指数上涨了1.8%。 在节日购物季期间，得益于iPhone 17的强劲需求、服务业务的增长以及中国市场的复苏，苹果营收远 超华尔街预期。截至12月27日，季度销售额跃升16%至1438亿美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unprecedented profits of storage giants Samsung and SK Hynix, driven by soaring memory prices, and highlights the implications for the broader electronics industry and investment opportunities [5][10]. Group 1: Storage Industry Performance - Samsung Electronics reported an operating profit of 20.1 trillion KRW (approximately 32.37 billion RMB) for Q4 2025, a 209% increase year-on-year, setting a new record for quarterly operating profit in South Korea [6]. - SK Hynix achieved an operating profit of 19.16 trillion KRW for Q4 2025, exceeding initial expectations, with year-end bonuses reaching 640,000 RMB per employee, the highest in the company's history [6]. - The surge in profits is attributed to a significant increase in memory prices, with Samsung raising NAND flash supply prices by over 100% for Q1 2026 [8][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Pricing Power - The storage industry is characterized by oligopoly, with SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron controlling 93% of the DRAM market share as of Q3 2025 [12]. - The construction of storage wafer fabs takes 2-3 years, making capacity expansion slow and difficult, which contributes to the pricing power of the leading firms [13]. - The competitive landscape has led to a cautious approach to capacity expansion among smaller players, while the three major firms maintain high profit margins through coordinated production strategies [15][16]. Group 3: Future Trends and Investment Opportunities - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is expected to grow due to AI applications, with HBM prices typically 3-4 times higher than traditional DRAM [24]. - The article predicts that the storage supercycle will continue until 2027, with ongoing revenue growth for both domestic and international storage companies [29]. - Investment institutions are optimistic about storage manufacturers, with BNP Paribas raising Micron Technology's target price from $270 to $500 [30]. Group 4: Impact on Downstream Industries - The rising storage prices are expected to lead to a significant impact on consumer electronics, with predictions of a decline in smartphone shipments by 7% in 2026 [40]. - Companies like Xiaomi and OPPO have adjusted their shipment targets downward due to increased costs, particularly affecting mid-range devices [43]. - The inflationary pressure from rising storage prices is also anticipated to hinder the rollout of AI hardware in various sectors, including automotive and home appliances [45][51].